According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in China is stable for the time being. As of January 8, the price of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic method is 6262.5 yuan / ton, and the recent price trend of o-phthalic anhydride market is stable. On January 7, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 60.95, down 0.36 points from yesterday, down 49.26% from 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 25.88% from 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In the near future, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable, the price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, the downstream factories maintain rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure still exists, the high-end transaction is blocked, in the near future, the spot supply of manufacturers is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method source is 5900-6100 yuan / ton; in North China, the main quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6100-6300 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are mainly stable, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is mainly on demand, the mentality of observation is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is not changed much, and benzene The price trend of anhydrides is stable temporarily.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6300 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability influence, phthalic anhydride market price trend temporarily stable.

The price of phthalic anhydride, isooctanol, DOP raw materials, DOP enterprises’ operating rate and DOP supply are generally stable. The price of DOP fluctuated and remained stable, the downstream demand of DOP was poor, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm was poor, the downstream PVC price fluctuated and fell, and the PVC industry was off-season. The mainstream quotation of DOP market is about 7200-7500 yuan / ton, and the rising power of DOP in the future market is general, but the upstream ox price fluctuates, the demand of plasticizer industry changes little, and the phthalic anhydride analysts of the business society expect that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will be stable temporarily.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of n-butanol as of January 8 was 5833 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.14% compared with January 4. At present, the reference average price is basically the same as that at the beginning of the month (January 1).

2、 Market analysis

Products: since December 2019, the domestic market of n-butanol has been continuously weak and falling, and the industry’s bearish attitude has been increasing. This weak situation has continued until the beginning of January 2020. On January 2, Shandong’s individual large n-butanol plants once again lowered their offer to attract downstream users to purchase. On that day, the average price of market participation in the offer fell to 5766.67 yuan / ton, and the downstream just needs replenishment, plus the beginning of the month Shandong Dachang plant is affected by heavy pollution weather, the load of the plant is reduced, the market price is good, the sales pressure is relieved, and the market recovery is supported. On June 6, the plant load of Shandong large factory is expected to increase, the low price transaction of n-butanol market is still smooth, downstream users bargain hunting, the supply of low price goods in the market can be reduced, in addition to the continuous increase of raw propylene, the international oil price rises, giving the confidence of the industry to boost, the market atmosphere improves to support the market offer firm, at present, the market offer price has a callback, Luxi Chemical n-butanol reference The quotation is about 5800 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with January 2; the factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is 5800 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with March 3; the factory quotation of Wanhua n-butanol is 5900 yuan / ton in North China, 6200 yuan / ton in East China, up 100 yuan / ton compared with March 3.

Industrial chain: as of January 8, the market price of propylene in Shandong continues to rise. Influenced by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, and on January 7, it began to rise again. Today, the enterprise price is still slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is about 6950-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton. At present, the situation in the Middle East is tense, the international crude oil price is soaring, and rain and snow weather occur in some parts of Shandong Province, which causes certain obstacles to transportation. Although some of the lower reaches are also negative and the profit margin is reduced, the overall supply is tight and the market is stable. It is expected that the market price of propylene will continue to rise in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency, it is expected that the n-butanol market will fluctuate slightly and maintain stable operation in the near future before the Spring Festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R22 in January 7 was 17833.33 yuan / ton, 2.88% higher than the previous day, and the R22 commodity index on January 7 was 107.00, 3 points higher than yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 28.30% higher than 83.40, the lowest point on October 14, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R22 market rose after new year’s day. At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is relatively stable, which is good for refrigerant R22, and the demand for refrigerant at the terminal has not been improved. After the promotion of air conditioning, the inventory is OK, and the downstream just needs to purchase, but there is no large amount. At present, the supply of goods in the market is still tight. According to the data monitoring of Italian society, as of January 7, the quotation was mainly about 17000 yuan / ton – 18500 yuan / ton, and the trend of refrigerant R22 was strong.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products is stable temporarily. In the near future, the factory in the field is in a general situation, and the spot supply in the field is normal. Due to the traditional off-season of upstream product trichloromethane, low purchase intention of downstream market and traders, and insufficient support of demand side, most trichloromethane production enterprises intend to stabilize the price, the market is in a state of game, and it is expected to stabilize in the short term. The refrigerant terminal air conditioner manufacturer starts at a low level and the demand is flat.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on January 6, 2020, among which the top three commodities are hydrogen peroxide (2.95%), phenol (2.93%) and TDI (2.03%). There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are liquid ammonia (- 7.88%), acetone (- 4.08%), lithium carbonate (- 2.70%). The average price of this day was – 0.13%.

3、 Future forecast

Refrigerant analyst of business club thinks: the supply of refrigerant R22 market is still tight, and the price is high. In the short term, the trend of R22 is expected to be stable and upward.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic refrigerant R134a on January 7 was 23333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.72% compared with the previous day, and the R134a commodity index on January 7 was 85.37, up 0.61 points compared with yesterday, down 14.63% compared with the highest point of 100.00 (2019-09-02), and up 2.94% compared with the lowest point of 82.93 on November 12, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: Refrigerant Market R134a after new year’s Day is rising steadily. At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is relatively stable, which is good for refrigerant R134a. In addition, the stock of R134a in the automobile industry begins to return to temperature, and the demand end is also good for refrigerant R134a. At present, the market supply is still tight and the price trend is strong. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of January 7, the price is concentrated at 21500 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products is stable temporarily. In the near future, the factory in the field is in a general situation, and the spot supply in the field is normal. Terminal, air conditioning market purchase and sales two weak, on-site inventory is still OK, insufficient operation, the automotive industry stock back temperature, good refrigerant R134a price.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on January 6, 2020, among which the top three commodities are hydrogen peroxide (2.95%), phenol (2.93%) and TDI (2.03%). There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are liquid ammonia (- 7.88%), acetone (- 4.08%), lithium carbonate (- 2.70%). The average price of this day was – 0.13%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, in the near future, the raw material end and demand end are favorable for refrigerant R134a. In addition, the supply of refrigerant R134a is still tight in the market due to the demand for refrigerant R134a in the automobile industry. It is expected that the price of refrigerant R134a will continue to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of January 7, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several major areas monitored by the data was 18700 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton or 0.36% compared with the end of last month (December 31).

2、 Market analysis

Products: in 2020, the domestic organosilicon market continues to operate stably. Only a few organosilicon DMC manufacturers have slightly reduced the price by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of organosilicon DMC is 18300-19000 yuan / ton, and some low prices are 18100 yuan / ton. As the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, the heat of goods preparation gradually fades, and some middle and lower reaches factories will be shut down for holidays, and the market trading atmosphere will gradually trend It’s flat. Before the Spring Festival, the price of organosilicon is basically stable. The fluctuation is limited. Due to the different inventory of various manufacturers, some manufacturers may slightly reduce their prices. They want to stimulate the growth before the year, but it has little impact on the current organosilicon market as a whole. In January, the number of plant maintenance increased, and the overall operating rate of the market declined. Starting next week, some factories in the middle and lower reaches will be shut down, Until the start of construction after the festival, the current market is running smoothly.

Operation of the unit: the unit in Jiangxi base of Aiken organic silicon is 450000t / A, the unit is in normal operation this week, and the maintenance plan is expected in late January; the production capacity of Xingfa in Hubei is 180000t / A, the unit is currently in the process of shutdown and parallel operation, and it is expected to resume operation in mid January, and the annual production capacity after parallel operation will exceed 300000 t / A; Shandong area: the unit of Luxi Chemical is in stable operation at present; Jinling in Shandong Province is expected to be in the first ten days of January There is a maintenance plan; the production capacity of Dongyue, Shandong Province is 250000 tons / year, and the current operating rate is about 7 floors; Zhejiang Province: Zhejiang Xin’an and Zhejiang Hesheng are currently in normal operation; Tangshan Sanyou has a production capacity of 200000 tons / year, and the maintenance plan is expected in January.

Industry chain: under the cost support of upstream DMC, silicone oil and 107 rubber are still firm and stable in the current market reference quotation, and the turnover in silicone oil market is slightly light. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is weakened, and a small part of the demand for goods preparation makes the turnover of new orders limited. At the same time, the market has always been in conflict with high prices, and the downstream stock is mainly cautious. At present, 107 rubber manufacturers mainly focus on orders in the early stage of delivery, with little inventory pressure in the short term and good overall supply and demand fundamentals. On January 6, the external quotation of methyl silicone oil (conventional viscosity) manufacturers was around 19000-20500 yuan / ton; that of 107 rubber manufacturers was around 19000-20200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of the business club, the market has basically completed the stock before the festival. At present, the market demand is relatively weak, and the factory inventory pressure is relatively small. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price before the festival will not fluctuate much, and the market will remain stable before the Spring Festival.

The spot price of precious metals rose sharply on JAN 6. According to the data of business agency, on January 6, the spot price of domestic gold was 355.23 yuan / g, a daily increase of 2.52% compared with the quotation of 346.50 yuan / G on January 3; the spot price of domestic silver was 4435.67 yuan / kg, a daily increase of 4335.67 yuan / kg compared with the quotation of 3 days. It rose 2.31% in the day.

Today, the demand for precious metals to avoid risks has increased, mainly due to the fermentation of the situation in the Middle East:

1. Trump threatened to strike 52 targets including cultural sites

U.S. air strikes on Baghdad International Airport killed major general suleymani of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard on March 3. Iran said it would retaliate, and U.S. – Iraqi tensions escalated rapidly.

On Thursday local time, trump tweeted a warning to Iran that if Iran strikes any American or US assets, the US military will strike 52 important Iranian locations it has targeted.

“It is war crimes to regard cultural sites as targets,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Zarif said later Friday, condemning the US president’s threat to strike 52 of Iran’s most important targets.

2. Iran announced to suspend the implementation of Iran nuclear agreement: no more restrictions on the number of centrifuges

After the US assassinated Sulaimani, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Holy City Brigade, on the evening of January 5 local time, foreign minister Zarif of Iran sent a message on social media saying that as the fifth and final “remedial” step, there will be no restrictions on the number of centrifuges in accordance with Article 36 of the Iran nuclear agreement.

This step is within the scope of the Iran nuclear agreement, and all five steps are reversible after the effective implementation of equivalent obligations. Iran’s full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency will continue.

Note: in July 2015, Iran reached a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue with the six countries on the Iranian nuclear issue (the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany). Under the agreement, Iran promised to limit its nuclear program and the international community would lift sanctions against Iran. In May 2018, the United States announced to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement and gradually resume the sanctions on Iraq suspended due to the agreement.

3. Iraq demands that the Security Council condemn the U.S. military parliament’s request for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq

On January 5 local time, the Ministry of foreign affairs of Iraq sent a letter to the UN Security Council and the UN Secretary General through the permanent representative of Iraq to the UN. According to the letter, the US air strikes on Iraqi military camps and assassinates Iraqi military leaders and senior friends in Iraqi territory, resulting in the death of muhandis, vice chairman of the people’s Mobilization Committee, several Iraqis and leaders with friendly relations with them, which is a serious violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and a violation of the conditions for US troops to be stationed in Iraq. Iraq calls on the UN Security Council to condemn the bombing and assassination.

On the afternoon of January 5 local time, the Iraqi parliament held a special meeting and reached a resolution on the issue of the US military in Iraq, which includes: the Iraqi government must no longer ask international organizations to help combat extremist organizations; the Iraqi government should strive to end the presence of all foreign forces in Iraqi territory.

According to Hart energy, data released by the Russian Ministry of energy on January 2 showed that the daily production of oil and gas condensate in Russia reached a record 11.25 million barrels in 2019, breaking the record of 11.16 million barrels set a year ago.

Data show that Russia is continuing to increase its oil and gas condensate production, despite the pollution oil crisis earlier this year limiting production and voluntary production cuts under a global agreement to support oil prices.

In the past 10 years, Russia’s oil production has been rising, thanks to the development of new oilfields and the introduction of new technologies for mature oilfields.

Russia’s oil and gas condensate production increased to 560.2 million tons last year from 55584 million tons in 2018, as small oil producers increased production.

According to the data, the output of oil and gas condensate from small producers jumped nearly 3% last year to 83.612 million tons, or 1.68 million barrels per day.

Data shows that the total volume of oil and gas condensate in December last year was 11.262 million barrels / day, higher than 11.244 million barrels / day in November. In tons, oil production last month was 47.629 million barrels, compared with 46.619 million barrels in November.

Alexander Novak, Russia’s energy minister, estimates that Russia’s oil and gas condensate production in 2020 will be between 555-565 million tons, or 11.12-11.32 million barrels per day, with a conversion rate of 7.33 barrels per ton of oil.

On January 6, in the context of the continued intensification of the US Iraq conflict, international oil prices continued to rise, and domestic energy and chemical futures rose across the board. By the end of the day, the main contracts of fuel oil futures were up and down in 2005, the main contracts of crude oil futures were up 5.69%, the main contracts of petroleum asphalt futures were up nearly 5%, and the main contracts of methanol, glycol and PTA futures were up more than 2%.

Market participants believe that the performance of domestic energy and chemical futures on Monday is within market expectations. In the context of overlapping global political cycles, geopolitics is likely to become one of the main factors affecting crude oil prices throughout this year. Oil prices fluctuate or intensify. Investors should keep rational and pay attention to risk prevention and control.

After yesterday’s closing, the Institute and its subsidiary, ine, issued a notice saying that the international situation in recent days is complex and changeable, and there are many uncertain factors affecting the operation of the market, requiring all relevant units to do a good job in risk prevention, rational investment, and maintain the smooth operation of the market.

On Friday (January 3), the United States launched a rocket attack on the International Airport in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. Qasim Sulaimani, commander of the “Holy City Brigade” under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard of Iran, was “cleared at designated points” in the attack, while Abu Mehdi muhandis, deputy commander of the Iraqi Shiite militia group “people’s mobilization organization”, was also killed. Several senior Iranian officials later warned of retaliation against the United States. As a result, international oil prices rose sharply and rapidly.

On January 5, the national assembly of Iraq held a special meeting to pass a resolution on ending the presence of foreign troops such as the United States in Iraq. On the same day, the Iranian government announced a complete suspension of the implementation of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue. Analysts believe that this is a series of actions such as US air strikes on Shiite forces in Iraq and “targeted clearance” of senior Iranian general Sulaimani. The United States is likely to take a tough response to this, and the tension in the Middle East is likely to escalate further.

In this context, the international community’s concern about the spillover of tensions between the United States and Iraq to the whole Middle East region has gradually increased, which has further boosted the risk appetite of the global market. The price of gold, a safe haven asset, has risen substantially, and the price of crude oil has continued to rise. Yesterday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures electronic market both jumped short and opened wide oscillation, ine crude oil futures main 2005 contract intraday trading limit, closing up more than 5%.

“Compared with foreign crude oil futures, ine crude oil futures increased significantly, which is related to the fact that the delivery varieties of ine crude oil futures are mostly Middle East oil.” Wang Xiao, director of crude oil research at Guotai Junan Futures, told the futures daily that at present, the US Iraq conflict has not spread to the Middle East and has not affected Iraq’s crude oil production and export, “the recent rise of international oil prices is mainly affected by geopolitics.”.

In the view of she Jianyue, assistant general manager of Yide futures, the Middle East, with one-third of the world’s oil production and nearly half of the world’s oil reserves, has always been the main place of geopolitical events, and the current market sentiment is dominated by concerns about Iran’s follow-up counter-measures.

“In the short to medium term, any emergency in the Middle East region will lead to rising market concerns, which will lead to significant fluctuations in international oil prices.” Yan Wenguang, head of the energy and chemical business department of Lufeng futures, said that the notice of risk prompt issued by the previous period office and its subsidiaries in time would help all parties in the market to strengthen their understanding of the current market risk and make rational investment. In the face of large fluctuations in oil prices, industrial institutions should actively use crude oil futures and other related tools to hedge risks.

Yang an, head of energy and chemical research and development of Haitong futures, said that in the fourth quarter of 2019, affected by the global economy’s unexpected recovery and OPEC + deepening production reduction expectations, crude oil prices fluctuated upward, which had been showing a situation of complete digestion and inability to continue upward, but the recent us Iraq conflict changed the operation logic of crude oil prices. In the short term, the mainland margin politics will dominate the oil price trend.

According to Wang Xiao, there are multiple overlapping political cycles in the world this year, and geopolitics may affect oil prices throughout the year.

In response to the withdrawal request of the Iraqi parliament, President trump threatened that the Iraqi government needs to pay for the long-term presence of the U.S. military, otherwise the U.S. military will not withdraw. He also said that even if the U.S. forces withdraw from Iraq later, the U.S. will sanction Iraq on a large scale. U.S. officials have yet to make a statement about Iran’s announcement to suspend the implementation of its nuclear agreement, but the U.S. side has taken a strong stance against Iran. Trump warned Iran that if Iran attacks US personnel or facilities, the US will carry out a swift attack on 52 Iranian targets. Analysts pointed out that the confrontation between the United States and Iran is becoming increasingly acute, gradually changing from an “agent” model to a direct conflict. The conflict between the two countries will not only affect the security and stability of Iraq, but also may spill over to other countries in the Middle East.

“Judging from the current situation, there are still variables in the follow-up to the US Iraq conflict, and the volatility of commodity prices such as crude oil will intensify.” GUI Chenxi, a crude oil analyst at CITIC futures, reminded investors to strengthen risk prevention and control, pay attention to controlling positions and invest rationally.

OPEC’s oil production fell in December last year as several Gulf oil producers stepped up their production cuts aimed at balancing the global oil market, Bloomberg News Agency London reported.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates cut their oil production in December last year, the last month of a round of restrictions imposed by OPEC before it continued to implement new and even more stringent production restrictions this year.

According to Bloomberg’s survey of government officials, ship tracking data and consulting companies such as lesta energy and JBC energy, OPEC’s oil production fell 90000 barrels a day in December to 29.55 million barrels a month.

Despite the emergence of a large number of new US shale oil and weak fuel demand around the world, OPEC and its allies’ efforts to tighten supply in 2019 boosted the global crude oil market, pushing Brent crude oil prices up 23%. Earlier last month, the alliance agreed to deepen its restrictions to prevent a new oversupply in the first quarter of this year.

According to the survey, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest member, is moving towards a new goal. Saudi Arabia’s current oil production is 9.83 million barrels per day, more than twice the amount promised in last year’s production reduction agreement, and is now moving steadily towards its own new quota of 9.7 million barrels.

In December, the UAE also cut production by 60000 barrels a day to 3.04 million barrels a day on average, exceeding the requirements of the upcoming production reduction agreement.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s bulk list, the market of PA6 in China was relatively stable in December, and the price of each brand rose or fell slightly. The main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 is about 12666.67 yuan / ton, which is the same as the level at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

The caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 bottomed out this month, and the whole plate was running. Upstream pure benzene strong rise, caprolactam by this boost, pure benzene spot tight support price high. At present, the domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made clear that the offer is not large enough to supply the downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. South China cyclohexanone market rebounded slightly, following the upstream trend, the supply of goods decreased to some extent, the trend of pure benzene gave cost support, driving caprolactam up slightly, but the end demand has not changed. It is expected that caprolactam will rise slightly after low-level finishing in the later stage; caprolactam in the upstream will rebound and support PA6. At present, the supply of goods is sufficient, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. The atmosphere in the market is quiet and businesses operate cautiously. In December, the domestic PA6 spot market moved slightly across the board.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in December, the domestic PA6 market is relatively stable, and the spot price is less volatile. The upstream caprolactam rebounded, and the cost end of PA6 was acceptable. Downstream factory replenishment is mainly based on rigid demand, with slow demand and slow tracking. It is expected that PA6 will continue to consolidate in a narrow range in the near future.