According to the latest data released by Vietnam Customs, in August 2018, Vietnam’s rubber exports totaled 171,100 tons, a significant increase of 20.12% from the previous month and a decrease of 0.28%.

From January to August, Vietnam’s natural rubber exports totaled 877,600 tons, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year.

In August, the amount of natural rubber exported from Vietnam to China was 106,000 tons. From January to August, it was exported to China with 560,600 tons.

1. The goal of the Paris Agreement now seems to be out of reach, but the goal is getting closer and closer, and global greenhouse gas reductions are accelerating. However, global energy consumption will not peak in demand for natural gas and oil until 2035.

2. By 2035, China, the United States and the European Union will reach or exceed 20% of the share of renewable energy production. Global demand for natural gas will continue to grow. The Asia-Pacific region, represented by China, accounts for more than 40% of global natural gas demand growth.

3. Liquefied natural gas transported by rail is more competitive than long-haul truck transport. At present, the innovative multimodal mode of LNG (cargo ship + tank container + railway + road) is gradually maturing. Improvements in LNG delivery methods and infrastructure will bring more new investments to the market.

In 2017, the implementation of China’s “26+2” coal-to-gas policy has increased the demand for LNG in northern China, and the diversified transportation mode of LNG ensures the implementation of policies and meets the needs of residents for LNG. , improving the problem of insufficient gas infrastructure.

According to data released by Statistics New Zealand on September 11, oil prices have been rising since April 2018, and the cost of retail consumption in New Zealand has been pushed for the fourth consecutive month.

Data show that as of the end of August, New Zealand retail consumption rose by 1%, oil consumption increased by 4.1%.

Su Chapman, head of retail statistics at Statistics New Zealand, said that the rise in consumer pressure was mainly due to rising oil prices, which pushed up the overall price of consumer goods and durable goods in New Zealand.

In May 2018, oil prices throughout New Zealand remained at less than 2 New Zealand dollars per liter (1 New Zealand dollar is about $0.65). By the end of August, oil prices had risen to more than NZ$2.3 per liter and rose by more than 15% in three months.

Economic experts and investors generally believe that although oil prices continue to rise despite external factors, the New Zealand government should also adopt a more active policy response to prevent inflation risks.

The business community monitoring manufacturers’ overall offer is stable, but the market has a downward trend. As of now, the market demand in Shandong has dropped by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the implementation price is 5700 yuan/ton. The price around Yanshan is 5950 yuan/ton. The plate fell 100-200 yuan / ton, the new price was 5,500 yuan / ton; South China region offer 6,000 yuan / ton. Overall, the market has a downward trend.

1. Blue Star Harbin 150,000 tons / year phenol ketone device on September 5 temporarily stopped due to gas boiler failure, restarted on September 7. 2. Lihua Yiweiyuan’s 350,000 tons/year phenolic ketone unit was temporarily shut down on September 5 due to equipment failure in the supporting store, and returned to normal on September 7. 3. Huizhou Zhongxin was restarted this week, and it is expected that products will be exported on weekends. 4. This week, the inventory of Huadong Acetone Port was 43,500 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week (September 6), including 26,000 tons of Huaxi stock and 17,500 tons of Hengyang stock.

The acetone analyst of the business community believes that: in September, the manufacturers have more maintenance, but the downstream demand is not good, and the follow-up devices will drive one after another. The market has a downward trend.

According to a Reuters report on Vladivostok, Russia, on September 11, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday that Russian companies have the potential to raise oil production from current levels.

Russia’s oil production in August was 11.21 million barrels per day, almost unchanged from July, close to the high point after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Russia is a member of the OPEC+ group, which works to stabilize global oil prices.

US Energy Secretary Rick Perry met with Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih in Washington on Monday, and the Trump administration is encouraging large oil producers to maintain high production.

Perry will meet Novak in Moscow on Thursday.

Ethylene is the basic raw material for the petrochemical industry, and ethylene production has become a measure of the level of development of a country’s petrochemical industry. In recent years, with the rapid development of the national economy, the domestic ethylene industry has developed rapidly and has become the world’s second largest ethylene producer and consumer after the United States. From a global perspective, naphtha is also the main raw material for the production of ethylene. The Middle East and North America are mainly light hydrocarbon (ethane) raw materials, and China’s resource-restricted raw materials are still mainly naphtha. With the rise of the domestic coal chemical industry in recent years, the proportion of domestic coal (methanol) ethylene production capacity to total production capacity has reached about 20%. The domestic ethylene industry has developed a distinctive road different from international counterparts.

From a global perspective, the production of ethylene capacity has a clear cyclicality, generally divided into raw material-driven and demand-driven. For example, the ethylene plant that was put into operation in the Middle East from 2007 to 2010 was mainly benefited from low-cost ethane feedstock. At present, there is a shortage of ethane in the region, and new plants are mostly based on naphtha or mixed cracking. Since the shale gas revolution in North America, it has brought a lot of cheap ethane since 2011. The ethylene cracking unit in the region has been changed to ethane raw materials, and a large number of ethane cracking units have been built. The overall production time is concentrated in Between 2017 and 2020. The newly added ethylene production capacity in China is mainly driven by demand. Due to high crude oil prices and weakened demand for refined oil in 2011~2017, the newly added capacity is mainly based on coal (methanol) to olefins.

According to statistics, as of the end of 2017, the total domestic ethylene production capacity reached 24.3 million tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year; the output reached more than 18.2 million tons, an increase of 2.4%. The annual import of ethylene reached 2.16 million tons, an increase of 30% year-on-year. As the demand for ethylene-derived products such as polyethylene and ethylene glycol continues to grow, domestic demand for ethylene has steadily increased. In 2017, the apparent consumption of ethylene was about 20.37 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year; the equivalent consumption of ethylene was about 39 million tons, the equivalent gap was more than 20 million tons, and ethylene and its derivatives were heavily dependent on imports.

The commissioning of some new installations this year will have a positive effect on the supply of ethylene. Among them, the 1.2 million-ton ethylene plant of Zhonghai Shell Phase II has been put into operation, and its commissioning will greatly improve the supply gap in South China. Before the end of the year, the 450,000 tons of Yanan Energy and the 300,000 tons of ethylene equipment from Jilin Cornell will be put into production. The annual new capacity is expected to be around 2 million tons. Beginning in 2019, the country will usher in an outbreak of new ethylene plants. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2020, more than 14 million tons of ethylene capacity will be put into production in China, including about 9 million tons of oil routes and 5.5 million tons of coal (methanol) routes. In addition, there are still about 7 million tons of light hydrocarbon (ethane) cracking projects due to the Sino-US trade war, the possibility of short-term shelving is relatively large. If the above-mentioned 14 million tons of equipment can be put into production as scheduled, the shortage of domestic ethylene supply will be greatly improved by then.

After several years of development, there have been some changes in the consumption structure of domestic ethylene. Among them, linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) accounts for about 27% of total consumption, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) accounts for about 26%, low-density polyethylene (LDPE) accounts for about 11%, and ethylene glycol accounts for about 11%. Ethylene oxide accounts for about 9% and styrene accounts for about 8%. Among them, ethylene glycol, HDPE and LDPE have the lowest self-sufficiency rates of 34%, 49% and 53%, respectively. The contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding.

On the whole, with the further opening of the domestic crude oil import policy and the maturity of coal chemical technology, more private enterprises began to enter the ethylene industry, and the overall supply pattern of ethylene began to show positive changes. Large-scale refining and chemical integration projects bring cost and technology impacts due to large-scale scale and diversification of raw materials, while coal (methanol) olefins projects also show better cost and raw material advantages under higher crude oil prices. The Chinese model of walking on two legs will bring new development opportunities to the ethylene industry, and the spring of the ethylene industry is not far behind.

As a global trade commodity, styrene has attracted much attention in its distribution pattern and supply and demand trends. China is not only the world’s largest producer of styrene, but also the world’s largest consumer. How will the future supply and demand pattern be interpreted?

From the data on the apparent consumption of styrene in China in recent years, the output, apparent consumption and self-sufficiency rate are all oscillating, while the import volume is declining year by year. Specifically, in terms of output, the total domestic production exceeded 5 million tons for the first time in 2013, and exceeded 6 million tons to 6.55 million tons in 2017, while apparent consumption surged from 8.1 million tons in 2013, 2017. Increased to 9.7 million tons, entering 2018, still continues to increase trend, the apparent consumption in the first half increased to 4.85 million tons.

In recent years, styrene has been affected by the increase in production and the decline in imports, and the self-sufficiency rate has also increased significantly. As of 2017, the self-sufficiency rate has increased from less than 60% in the previous years to 67.62%. In the first half of 2018, the self-sufficiency rate has made a new breakthrough and further increased to 71.3%.

It is worth mentioning that in recent years, the decline in import volume is obvious. According to the import data of the Customs Statistics Bureau, the import volume of styrene in the past few years was basically 3.7 million tons/ton. In 2016, it fell back to 3.5 million tons/year. Below the level, it has fallen to 3.2 million tons/year in 2017. In 2018, affected by anti-dumping and arbitrage changes in various regions, the import volume continued to shrink. The total import volume from January to July was 1.56 million tons, down 115,000 tons year-on-year. From this trend, the annual import volume fell in 2018. Breaking 3 million tons will be a high probability event.

Since 2018, after the Qingdao Bay Chemical 500,000 tons/year styrene plant was officially put into commercial operation after being ignited in mid-January, the 260,000 tons/year installation of Anhui Wuyuan was also stably supplied after the product was released around August 10. Maintain full load operation. Before the deadline, China’s styrene production capacity has reached 9.37 million tons / year. According to the latest news, CITIC Guoan Ruihua currently has 200,000 tons of styrene co-production of 80,000 tons/year propylene oxide plant, Hengli petrochemical 700,000 tons/year styrene plant and the largest domestic Zhejiang Petrochemical refining and chemical integration project. The 10,000-ton/year styrene plant is scheduled to be put into operation before the end of 2018. The annual production capacity of China’s styrene exceeds 11 million tons. It is just around the corner. Although there are still some uncertainties in the actual production progress, the national production and self-sufficiency rate will soon be on the rise. At a new level, China’s styrene supply and demand gap will gradually disappear, and the dependence on imported sources will also drop significantly.

Zhou Xiaochuan, the former governor of the People’s Bank of China, said that if there is a full-scale trade war between China and the United States, even if the direct impact on the economy is small, market sentiment changes may also hit China.

Zhou Xiaochuan, who just retired this year, said that the tariff imposed by the United States on Chinese goods is not very important in terms of economic scale. Despite this, the impact on market confidence may have an impact.

“Everyone may get nervous,” Zhou Xiaochuan said in an interview with Bloomberg Lacqua. “No one really understands. Suddenly a trade war broke out. In terms of stock market investment, everyone may change their minds.”

He said that this kind of behavior is far more profound than the actual impact on the economy. Zhou Xiaochuan was interviewed at the Amboise Forum in Cernobbio, Italy.

At the time of the trade war, China has already faced a policy-induced economic slowdown. This prompted leaders to relax their leveraged program in case of future economic downside risks.

“Minsky moment”

Zhou Xiaochuan warned in October last year that China should guard against the threat of “Minsky moment”, that is, the risk of sudden collapse of asset value. The concept is named after Heyman Minsky, who believes that a long-term bull market could lead to a major collapse. China’s renminbi has fallen more than 6% since mid-June, making it the worst performing currency in Asia; China’s stock market has entered a bear market.

Zhou Xiaochuan said on Friday that it needs to be vigilant. China’s top priority is to avoid asset bubbles. “We should keep the currency floating with market supply and demand and avoid any form of distortion,” he added.

He said that globally, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of financial assets, and stressed that the global monetary authorities have long maintained the risk of policy easing after the financial crisis.

“This should be a relatively short-term measure,” he said. “If it lasts too long, it is very dangerous.”

A senior government official revealed in an interview that the Mexican mining group may restart the San Martin mine in early 2019, the largest underground mine in Mexico, which was discontinued more than a decade ago due to strikes by workers.

Carlos Barcena, Minister of Economy of Zacatecas, where the mine is located, said that the Mexican mining group has started mine repair work and is expected to be completed and put into production in the first quarter of 2019.

A company insider familiar with the situation confirmed the plan but was not allowed to be interviewed. The company spokesperson declined to comment.

The San Martin mine was discontinued in July 2007 due to labor conflicts with the National Miners Union (SNTMMSRM) under Napoleon Gomez, and Napoleon Gomez is currently serving as a senator. Before the shutdown, the mine produced about 8,000 tons of copper and 19,000 tons of zinc in 2005.

Earlier this year, a group of workers who participated in the strike agreed to change their demands by the National Union of Independent Alliances in order to resolve the protracted conflict. Last week, at the request of the workers of the National Union of Independent Alliances, the government responsible for resolving labor disputes decided to end the strike.

But last Thursday, a spokesperson for the National Miners Union (SNTMMSRM) said that the real miners are still on strike and the coalition will file a lawsuit on the decision to end the strike.

Monex analysts said the project restarted to increase the Mexican mining group’s annual sales by 1%.