1、 Trend analysis
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have risen significantly this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 144000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.65% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 12.86%.
Nickel weekly fluctuation chart
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 6 times and risen 5 times in the past 12 weeks, with a strong rebound in nickel prices recently.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, the international macro is generally warm, but there are still hidden concerns: the US dollar index continues to decline for eight consecutive days, now at the 98 level, marking the longest continuous decline cycle since June 2020; Positive progress has been made in the US Iran negotiations, and market risk aversion has significantly cooled down; The US stock market continues to be strong, with the Nasdaq recording 11 consecutive gains and reaching a new historical high, and the S&P 500 index breaking through the 7000 point integer mark for the first time. Domestically, the GDP growth rate for the first quarter released today meets market expectations, which has boosted market confidence to a certain extent. However, the improvement in downstream demand is limited and has not formed a strong price drive.
On the supply side, China’s refined nickel production in March was 37337 tons, an increase of 14.53% month on month and 1.83% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China for April is 38830 tons, an increase of 4.00% month on month and 6.53% year-on-year. The pressure of rising supply side costs is significant, and Indonesia’s policy tightening has become the biggest variable. The country has successively introduced multiple industrial control policies, systematically pushing up the cost curve of the global nickel industry; At the same time, the prices of key upstream raw materials have significantly increased, and the supply of intermediate goods continues to be tight, further raising the production costs of the smelting process.
On the demand side: The overall performance of the demand side is weak, with only the improvement of profits in the stainless steel industry providing relatively stable support; The production and sales of new energy vehicles are stable, but the demand growth for ternary batteries is weak, and the industry is currently in the off-season of traditional consumption; Downstream enterprises generally adopt a cautious purchasing attitude, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory for essential needs, and the high inventory pattern continues to suppress the upward space of prices.
In summary, the tight supply of upstream intermediate goods and weak terminal demand coexist, and the serious imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain greatly limits the volatility elasticity of nickel prices. Macroscopically, the implementation of Indonesia’s new policies has brought about a rise in the bottom support of nickel mines, and the actual supply pressure combined with insufficient inventory digestion constraints is expected to lead to strong fluctuations in nickel prices.
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