API crude oil stocks fell 6.127 million barrels in the week of January 4, with an expected decline of 3.3 million barrels and a pre-value decline of 4.5 million barrels.

Recent declines in crude oil costs and the start-up of new cracking units will increase propylene production in the United States in 2019, although export and unplanned shutdowns may cause some volatility in the market.

For most of 2018, tight supply of propylene in the United States led to higher prices. Propylene prices in the United States rose sharply in early 2018 due to unplanned shutdowns of some propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants. For most of the second half of 2018, propylene prices in the United States rose due to the failure of some PDH units and the limited production of propylene in cracking units.

Although production of PDH units in the United States may continue to be unstable in 2019, propylene production from cracking units rebounded at the end of 2018, a trend that is likely to continue until 2019.

For most of 2018, propylene production in the cracking unit decreased, mainly due to the increased use of ethane raw materials in the cracking unit, which limited the production of propylene by-products.

With the new cracking plant in the United States put into operation in March and July 2018, domestic ethylene supply in the United States increased dramatically, leading to a sharp drop in ethylene prices.

Low ethylene prices have squeezed the profit margins of American cracking plants, prompting them to use more ethane, which is the most economical raw material for ethylene production. For most of 2018, strong crude oil prices supported the prices of heavier raw materials such as naphtha, propane and butane, which often made cracking heavier raw materials uneconomical.

In mid-2018, ethane accounted for more than 75% of the raw materials of cracking plants in the United States, up from 60% in the previous year.

At the end of 2018, the price of crude oil fell and the profit margin of cracking unit increased, which improved the economy of heavy cracking raw materials. Crude oil prices are not expected to rise substantially in 2019, which may maintain the economic feasibility of heavy cracking raw materials.

Due to the strong demand for U.S. fuel exports, especially for Mexico, U.S. refineries will maintain a high start-up rate in 2019, so propylene production from refineries is expected to remain strong.

LLP, a subsidiary of the European Solar Group, decided to sell the Elix polymer business to Sinochem International Co., Ltd. for 195 million euros. Elix polymer is ABS (acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene) resin and derivatives from Europe. Produced by leading manufacturers. Although the two parties have signed an agreement on sales, the transaction still needs to wait for the approval of the regular regulatory authorities.

Elix Polymers is headquartered in Tarragona, Spain. Its products are widely used in medical, automotive, consumer goods and other fields.

In 2012, a subsidiary of the European Solar Group took over Elix. Since taking over, under the direction of the European Solar Partner LLP, Elix has experienced a shift from a production-centric unit to a market leader in providing first-class products and services. Elix has taken a series of steps to increase productivity, introducing the latest management technology “lean manufacturing” and business breakthroughs, which have greatly improved productivity and achieved record customer satisfaction levels, pushing sales to the sales A high level.

“We are very pleased with the progress made by Elix Polymers during the Sun’s ownership and we hope they will continue to succeed under new ownership,” said Parson, General Manager of the European Sun Partner. “Spain is an attractive market for the Sun Group and we are actively seeking further investment in the country.”

Elix CEO Wolfgang Dolin commented: “This is an exciting next step for Elix, because we want to build on the ownership of the Sun Group to help us develop a more solid platform.” Elix The strength lies in continuous improvement, innovation, state-of-the-art technology, high-level sales and technical marketing department experience, and the Elix Polymer Human Resources team of professionals.

The reference news network reported on October 16 that the Japanese media said that China is expected to surpass Japan, which is the long-term leader for the first time in 2018, and become the world’s largest natural gas importer.

According to Japan’s Nikkei Asian Review website reported on October 14th, the increase in China’s natural gas imports has had an impact on the spot price of LNG in Asia: from July to December last year, Asian LNG prices doubled from 100 per 100 The British thermal unit rose to $11.20 from $5.45.

An analyst said that the sharp rise in demand from China, Asia’s largest economy, could also affect the international trade in natural gas – the latter mainly based on long-term contracts – “which could lead to global competition for natural resources”.

According to the report, from January to August this year, China imported 57.18 million tons of natural gas; by contrast, Japan imported 56.45 million tons. In 2017, China surpassed South Korea and became the world’s second largest natural gas importer.

The International Energy Agency predicted in June that China will become the world’s largest natural gas importer by 2019. But the latest data seems to speed up this timeline. The increasing diversification of sources of supply in Asian countries indicates that the region’s importance as a natural gas consumer is increasing.

Huang Miaoru, senior manager of natural gas and liquefied natural gas in the Asia Pacific region of energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie Consulting, said: “Although Japan is still the largest importer of LNG, China is expected to surpass Japan to become the world’s largest natural gas importer by 2018. China Natural gas imports have consistently exceeded market expectations.”

The report said that concerns about environmental pollution are the main reason for China to increase natural gas imports. Severe air pollution has prompted China to quickly switch from burning coal to using natural gas, which burns cleaner and emits about half of the carbon dioxide.

China imports natural gas in two ways, one is liquefied natural gas and the other is pipeline natural gas. For example, LNG, which can be transported by tankers, imported 38.13 million tons of LNG last year, a 46% increase from 2016. In 2011, China imported only 12 million tons of LNG, which is one-third of South Korea. In just six years, China’s LNG imports have tripled.

According to the report, if the natural gas supplied by the pipeline is included, China seems to have surpassed Japan to become the world’s largest natural gas importer this year. Japan, which imports only LNG, is still the largest importer of such commodities.

Guan Xincun, a partner at Commodity Consulting’s Market Risk Consulting Company, said: “The natural gas trade is unlikely to be immediately affected by the surge in demand, as (natural gas purchases) are usually signed long-term contracts and the storage capacity of importing countries is limited.”

However, he is cautious about the long-term impact of China’s natural gas demand and global trends.

Guan Xincun said: “If the COP24 meeting scheduled for December 2018 decides to accelerate the withdrawal of coal use, in the long run, natural gas demand may increase further, which may lead to countries competing for natural resources on a global scale.” COP24 The meeting referred to the next meeting of the parties to the Paris Climate Change Agreement.

According to reports, China is now looking for new suppliers. In mid-September, PetroChina and Qatar’s state-owned Qatar Gas Company reached a 22-year LNG agreement. The “Siberian Power” gas pipeline is the longest natural gas pipeline in the world, with a total length of 3,000 kilometers, connecting eastern Siberia and China. It is expected that the natural gas pipeline will be put into use next year to transport natural gas from the Arctic Circle to China.

According to the Nigerian “Pioneer” reported on October 9, oil prices fell 65 cents on the 8th to 83.51 US dollars per barrel, while last week’s closing time was 86.74 US dollars (four-year high). Earlier, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) said that oil prices have not fallen below $80 a barrel in 2018, and it is expected to continue to tighten the monetary policy before completing inflation control targets. Observers believe that unless the United States increases sanctions, Iranian oil will continue to export, thus alleviating global supply pressure. US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports will begin on November 4, and Washington has been putting pressure on governments and businesses around the world to reduce crude oil imports from Iran to zero.

The US energy analysts who imposed sanctions on Iran said, “This is one of the biggest supporting factors for the rise in crude oil prices, but it is likely that we have passed the peak of this influence and its impact will soon begin to ease.” Concerned that other producers (such as Saudi Arabia’s major exporter) increased production to compensate for lower Iranian supplies, and oil prices also fell. Saudi Arabia said last week that it plans to increase production sharply in November, while October production has reached 10.7 million barrels per day (bpd), indicating that Saudi Arabia will increase production to an all-time high. Stephen Innes, head of trading at Oanda Asia Pacific, a Singapore-based futures brokerage firm, said, “Saudi Arabia has made up for all Iran’s share.” Asian traders say concerns about a possible Sino-US trade war that could slow world economic growth and hit oil demand have also weighed on the market. . China’s stock market fell sharply on Monday.

However, CBN President Godwin Emefiele explained that the price of crude oil in 2018 will not be lower than $80 per barrel. In an interview with Reuters at the World Bank Conference in London, he said that as long as US sanctions are in force for Iran in November, “I expect the price to be no lower than $80 this year.” Regarding the interests of Nigeria, he said, “The current The tightening state will continue until at least we see inflation reaching the target level.” He pointed out that Nigeria will continue to intervene to support its exchange rate, although he noticed that the pressure on the currency reserves of banks and countries is lower than other emerging markets, but “we will continue to intervene and must maintain a stable exchange rate.”

Earlier, US President Trump has repeatedly called on oil-producing countries (OPECs) and other oil-producing countries to increase production to lower crude oil prices. However, after the main OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers meeting held last Sunday, they did not issue a statement on increasing production.

Since then, international oil prices have continued to strengthen. After Monday’s close, at 19:30 on the 25th, Beijing time, Brent crude oil futures price rose 0.54% to 81 US dollars per barrel, and New York crude oil futures price rose 0.44% to 72.39 US dollars per barrel. Market participants pointed out that oil-producing countries have not reached consensus on increasing oil production or continue to boost international oil prices, and the crude oil market will face a supply gap in the next three to six months.

US pressure is invalid

On Sunday, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries held a meeting in Algeria. The failure to form a consensus on increasing production at this meeting is an important cause of the surge in international oil prices. The oil-producing countries “disregarded” the remarks made by US President Trump’s request to “reduce oil prices” and did not intend to immediately increase crude oil production.

According to foreign media reports, representatives of major oil producing countries said that the participating parties reiterated 100% compliance with the goal of reducing production. In the case that OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers have agreed to increase oil production in June, it is impossible for participants to suggest further increases.

Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Falih said that the global crude oil market is balanced, so measures that affect oil prices will not be taken. He pointed out that Saudi Arabia has spared no effort to increase crude oil production, but “not now” may not be necessary next year, because according to OPEC’s forecast, non-OPEC production growth may exceed global demand growth. The interim report released by OPEC predicts that the supply of non-OPEC oil producers led by the United States will increase by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2019, while global oil demand will only increase by 1.5 million barrels per day.

Falih pointed out that the focus is turning to 2019. It has already gained an understanding of the prospects for an increase in inventories in 2019, which is caused by a substantial increase in supply from non-member states. “The news I got was that there is sufficient supply of crude oil. I don’t know which refineries that need crude oil can’t get crude oil. Given the quantity seen so far, it is very unlikely to increase production in 2019, unless there is any accident on the supply and demand side.”

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Nowak also believes that there is no need to immediately increase crude oil production. Trade disputes and US sanctions against Iran are bringing new challenges to the crude oil market.

According to statistics released by the Chinese Customs Department, China’s crude oil imports in August increased by 6.5% from July, driven by the rebound in demand from small independent refiners, reaching its highest level since May.

According to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 38.38 million tons of crude oil in August, importing an average of 9.04 million barrels of crude oil per day.

China’s August crude oil imports in August were 8 million barrels higher than the same period a year ago and 8.48 million barrels higher than in July, but slightly lower than the 9.12 million barrels predicted by Thomson Reuters Petroleum Research.

Statistics also show that China imported a total of 299 million tons of crude oil in the first eight months of this year, an increase of 6.5%.