General Administration of Customs: in the first 11 months, China imported 462 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 10.5%. The average import price was 3273.5 yuan per ton, down 5.1%.

Data shows that China imported 45.74 million tons of crude oil in November and 45.51 million tons in October.

General Administration of Customs: in the first 11 months, the import of refined oil was 27.25 million tons, down 10.6%. The average import price was 3833.1 yuan per ton, down 3.4%.

Data shows that China imported 2.4 million tons of refined oil in November and 2.22 million tons in October;

In addition, according to the General Administration of customs, China imported 1.06 million tons of fuel oil in November and 944000 tons in October.

General Administration of Customs: in 2018, 462 million tons of crude oil were imported.

In the first 11 months of this year, China’s import of crude oil has reached 462 million tons, the same period last year. It is estimated that the import of crude oil will reach 511 million tons in 2019, breaking through 500 million tons.

Based on the average import price of 3273.5 yuan per ton in the previous 11 months, the annual crude oil import amount will reach 1672.758 billion yuan, equivalent to 238.965 billion US dollars (the exchange rate is calculated by 1:7).

Such a large-scale crude oil import and trade amount pose a challenge to China’s energy security.

Based on the 511 million tons of crude oil imported in the whole year, let’s make a simple calculation.

With 1 ton of medium crude oil = 7.3 barrels, 5.11 * 7.3 = 3.730 billion barrels of crude oil need to be imported in the whole year. On average, 10.22 million barrels of crude oil need to be imported every day in the whole year (365 days), which is indeed a large number, accounting for about 10% of global oil production. According to the EIA report in November, global crude oil supply increased by 1.5 million barrels / day to 101 million barrels / day in October.

Let’s compare the crude oil imports of 10.22 million barrels / day. According to OPEC’s November report, Saudi Arabia reported a crude oil output of 10.303 million barrels per day in October, which means Saudi Arabia, the world’s third largest oil producer, has just enough oil output to meet China’s oil imports.

From this point of view, there is still a long way to go for the strategic adjustment of our energy structure, especially for non fossil renewable energy and clean energy.

I. price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel rose this week, which is much higher than that of diesel. The price of domestic gasoline is 6695 yuan / ton, 4.35% higher than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel is 6503 yuan / ton, 0.91% higher than that of last week.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the international crude oil rose sharply after the fall, and on December 2, the domestic refined oil price was adjusted and increased, and the market price of gasoline and diesel rose this week.

Industry chain: in terms of international crude oil market, Russia announced to postpone the decision to cut production, which was negative, and then there was a positive boost, such as the reduction or postponement to the end of 2020, the unexpected drop of US crude oil inventory after increasing for several consecutive weeks. WTI crude oil prices closed at $58.40/barrel, up about 5.38% on a weekly basis.

Market: this week’s gasoline prices continue to rise sharply, first of all, the sharp rise in international crude oil prices has driven up the price of crude oil, second, some oil distributors in the market purchase a large number of oil transfer raw materials, resulting in a rise in the price of raw materials; third, the gasoline price fell to a low level in the late last month, and the gasoline market price rose by borrowing the opportunity. The price increase of diesel market is far less than that of gasoline. Firstly, the weather turns cold, the market support for diesel just needs is not enough, and secondly, the market price of gasoline and diesel in the early stage is inverted, and the gasoline price is suppressed. So this week, the market price of diesel is not as high as that of gasoline.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that although there is a possibility of a sharp rise in the short-term international crude oil price, the overall downward pressure on the oil price is relatively large. Although the demand in the gasoline market has improved, the operating load of the refinery is about 69.05%, which has been raised to a high level within the year. Diesel market is gradually entering the off-season. It is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel market will rise steadily next week, with limited increase.

I. price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic market price of PA66 in early December was stable, and the market maintained a weak and stable trend. As of December 6, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 23100.00 yuan / ton, which is the same as the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

At the beginning of this month, domestic adipic acid continued to adjust its weak market. Under the background of loose supply and weak demand, the absence of cost support made the adipic acid Market worse. At present, the weakness of adipic acid has lasted for three months. Last month, the downstream demand for adipic acid became weaker. In addition, the steady increase of supply led to the increase of social inventory pressure, the high inventory of enterprises, and the effect of destocking was not obvious, resulting in a step-by-step decline in price. In the near future, the weak market in East China and South China has been mainly adjusted, with the decline narrowed compared with that in October. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively let profits go single, the market remains weak and volatile. At present, the downstream market has a heavy wait-and-see mentality, and there is resistance to deal. In addition, the port inventory of raw material end pure benzene this week is lower than that of last week, and the domestic spot supply of pure benzene is tight. Domestic pure benzene market negotiation atmosphere is good, driving the price up slightly. The high external price supports the price of pure benzene, and the pure benzene enterprises have raised their expectations. However, the effect of small increase is not ideal, and the support for adipic acid is slightly insufficient. It is estimated that adipic acid will not get out of the haze in a short time before this year; in early December, PA66 market has abundant spot supply, and downstream factories generally make inquiries, maintaining just in need of replenishment, while buying gas is light. The weak mentality of the industry has not changed, and most orders are flexible.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in early December, the domestic PA66 market adjusted steadily. The adipic acid in the upstream continued to weaken, with narrow adjustment and poor support for PA66 cost side. There is no improvement in the enthusiasm of downstream stock up, and the strategy of just need to take the goods as the main strategy. The market buying is light, the industry is still bearish, and the operation is limited. It is expected that PA66 disk will continue to run smoothly in the near future.

I. price trend

II. Market analysis

This week, the domestic potassium sulphate market is still dominated by light operation, with weak downstream demand, heavy shipping pressure of Mannheim enterprises, and conservative start-up of potassium sulphate enterprises. In recent days, the sales of Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers in Hebei Province have not improved significantly. 52% of the mainstream water-soluble powder factory offers 2700-2800 yuan / ton, while in Shandong Province, 50% of Mannheim potassium sulfate factory offers 2500-2600 yuan / ton; 52% of the powder factory offers 2700-2750 yuan / ton. In the aspect of water and salt system, the price of potassium sulfate also decreased slightly again, which increased the uncertainty of future price trend.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of potassium sulphate of business association, the cost support is general and the demand is not strong, while the upper inventory is too much, and there is no obvious sign of rebound of potassium sulphate, and the current gluing state is continued in the later stage.

According to the latest data of China Plastics Processing Industry Association, from January to September 2019, the total output of enterprises in China’s plastics industry was 59.9361 million tons, up 4.12% year-on-year, 3.86 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.

According to the introduction, resin, additives, processing equipment (including mold) are indispensable basic elements in the molding process of plastic products. In contrast, the proportion of additives in the plastic formula is less than 8%, but it plays an important role in improving the processing and application performance of products. It can be said that after the polymer resin structure is determined, the selection and application of additives is the key to the success or failure of products.

It is reported that after years of efforts, China’s production of plastic additives for industrial varieties, special or special functions has gradually increased, and great progress has been made in the renewal of green environmental protection additives, cleaner production, process improvement, etc. China’s total output of all kinds of plastic additives ranks first in the world, with the most complete varieties. Up to now, the consumption of plastic additives in China is about 6 million tons, including nearly 3 million tons of plasticizers, 500000 tons of heat stabilizers, 400000 tons of flame retardants, 400000 tons of impact modifiers and processing aids, 160000 tons of foaming agents, 200000 tons of lubricants, 200000 tons of antioxidants, 45000 tons of light stabilizers, coupling agents and antistatic agents. The environmental protection products of plasticizers and heat stabilizers have a rapid growth, while the non environmental protection products have a shrinking trend, while the other varieties are the same.

Influenced by factors such as international trade environment and tight implementation of domestic environmental protection policies, China’s plastic additives industry will face many challenges. Some important key raw materials are controlled by foreign enterprises. Domestic related enterprises need to make more efforts in core technology research and development, intellectual property protection, green safety and environmental protection.

Zhu Wenwei, President of China Plastics Processing Industry Association, suggested that we should adhere to the concept of ecological development and improve the production capacity of green environmental protection additives. “With the promotion of environmental protection policies and environmental protection standards, the development of some enterprises that use traditional backward production equipment and low-level process technology is limited, while the technology reserve is sufficient, the research and development capacity is strong, and the technology innovation, clean production and environment are emphasized Environmental protection and leading production enterprises seize new development opportunities. Enterprises must firmly establish the concept of ecological development and improve the development capacity of cleaner production and green environmental protection additives. ”

At present, there are many small and micro enterprises in the plastic additives industry, with low technology level, poor product quality control ability, and difficult government supervision. At the same time, the sales of low-end and even unqualified products damage the overall image of the industry. The industry believes that enterprises should adhere to the quality development strategy and improve the brand competition of additives. The industry should enhance the awareness of quality and brand development, actively participate in the formulation and revision of national, industrial and group standards, deepen the action of “three products”, make efforts to improve quality, increase varieties, create brands and quality products manufacturing, establish benchmark enterprises in the industry, support excellent backbone enterprises that strictly follow the standard production, pay attention to product quality, implement environmental protection transformation and invest in technology research and development Make demonstration, share experience and drive the high-quality development of the industry.

I. price trend

According to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of DAP on December 5 was 2250 yuan / ton, down 0.22% compared with December 1 (2255.00). The diammonium phosphate commodity index on December 5 was 67.11, unchanged from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 34.83% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: due to the lack of demand follow-up, the market of diammonium phosphate storage in winter is depressed, the price keeps falling, and the recent decline slows down. The operating rate of enterprises is about 50%, and some enterprises are in the process of maintenance and parking. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province is priced at 2200-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province is priced at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is priced at 2400-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province is priced at 2250-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Northwest China is priced at 2250-2400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on December 5, the weak trend of raw sulfur. In Shandong Province, the mainstream price of solid sulfur is 620 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 520-600 yuan / ton. In North China, the mainstream price of solid sulfur is 560 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 510-540 yuan / ton. In East China, the mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 520-660 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is about 470-630 yuan / ton. The phosphorus ore market is weak and stable, the overall market is not changed much, the on-site trading remains light, and the transaction is average. The demand for downstream compound fertilizer has not improved, and enterprises are more cautious to wait and see, mainly taking goods as needed.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 1.05%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of diammonium phosphate of business association think that the market of diammonium phosphate raw materials is poor, the cost support is weak, and the terminal demand is insufficient, which leads to the continuous weak operation of diammonium phosphate Market. It is now at the lowest level in the year, with supply beginning to shrink and limited space for decline. It is expected that the market of diammonium phosphate will be weak in the later period, and it is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market trends.

After a short rebound from mid October to November, international crude oil prices fell again in early December. The main reason is that the market generally expects that the international crude oil market will still be oversupplied in 2020, especially the global crude oil production will maintain rapid growth, while the demand will continue to be weak.

An important recent event is the meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) in Vienna from December 5 to 6 to discuss whether to extend the production reduction agreement and whether to expand the production reduction. In fact, the key issue of OPEC meeting is not whether OPEC will reduce production or not, but the extent and implementation path of production reduction. If the intensity of production reduction is expanded, the pressure of excess supply in the crude oil market will be relieved to some extent; if the agreement of production reduction is not extended or even if the existing agreement of production reduction is extended, the crude oil market still faces the pressure of excess supply.

From the supply side, on July 1, 2019, OPEC + agreed to extend the production reduction to March 2020, which made the global crude oil market appear a certain amount of inventory removal, but the supply is still surplus. However, the international crude oil market still benefits from OPEC + production reduction to some extent, which makes the decline of WTI crude oil price basically stop at $50 / barrel, not approaching the $45 / barrel set in December 2018 again.

Shale oil is still the key to the global oil supply in 2020, and the market generally expects that the shale oil production in the United States will increase in 2020. According to the data, shale oil production in the United States has exceeded 9 million barrels / day, while the overall crude oil production in the United States is about 12.9 million barrels / day. Although the number of shale oil rigs in the United States has declined significantly since 2014, the production of shale oil in the United States has not declined significantly. Shale oil producers in the United States try to continue to increase production with fewer drilling platforms. The main logic lies in the improvement of drilling efficiency and the explosion of oil storage wells in the Central Plains during the drilling process. At present, more than 70% of the crude oil resources in the United States are from shale oil, and the marginal cost is estimated to be about $50 / barrel. Therefore, if the WTI crude oil price is more than $50 / barrel, the shale oil production in the United States is unlikely to decline actively.

In addition, the output of emerging crude oil producers is likely to grow explosively, with increases coming from Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana. It is estimated that by 2020, the above four countries will increase production by nearly 1 million barrels per day, and by 2021, they will increase production by nearly 1 million barrels per day. Such an imminent supply explosion could be an important reason for Saudi Arabia’s oil giant, Aramco, to rush ahead with its IPO plans. By country, in May 2019, Exxon Mobil announced that it would approve its huge Guyana development project with a second phase investment of US $6 billion. With the approval of Liza phase 2 project (the first phase will go online in early 2020), Exxon Mobil expects to produce more than 750000 barrels of oil per day in Guyana by 2025, which is almost equivalent to the total global oil and gas production of Exxon Mobil 20%; in September 2019, Norwegian national oil company equinor announced two offshore oil fields in the North Sea to produce and sell oil, among which the mariner oil field in the UK sea area has been started in the middle of August this year, and as the largest oil field discovered in the North Sea in nearly 30 years, the Sverdrup oil field in the Norwegian Sea area was put into production in October this year; on November 6, 2019, Brazil launched the so-called The world’s largest offshore oil and gas development project, which covers four platforms, is expected to have reserves of 6 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Most importantly, it may be difficult for OPEC + meeting in Vienna on December 6 to have a more than expected production reduction agreement. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, is not only hit by weak demand, but also facing the rise of the US, which has transformed its customers into competitors. Russia, an OPEC ally, has been producing more than the OPEC + target since August. Russia’s crude oil and condensate production in November once again exceeded the target set by the OPEC + agreement, totaling 46 million tons, equivalent to about 11.24 million barrels per day.

Many oil producing countries, such as Russia and Iraq, have not strictly complied with the production reduction agreement and have been producing beyond the quota. Most of the time, Saudi Arabia cut production beyond the quota, making greater sacrifices to maintain the reduction agreement. There has been a conflict of interest between the two groups. In recent days, Saudi Arabia seems to be reluctant to over implement the production reduction, and may urge countries to strictly implement the production reduction agreement. However, Russia is still trying to reduce the restriction of the agreement on production reduction on its crude oil production, hoping to exclude the condensate production from the production reduction index, and emphasizing that it is difficult for Russia to complete the production reduction in winter.

Global crude oil demand is relatively weak. Data shows that from June to August, the demand of the world’s 18 largest crude oil consumers increased by only 1.6% compared with the same period last year. In addition to China, the demand of the other top 17 countries fell by 0.9% in June August compared with the same period last year, which is better than a few months ago, but still weak.

Looking back at the impact of OPEC + production reduction on the crude oil market since 2016, we find that the marginal utility is getting lower and lower. Even if the OPEC + meeting in Vienna prolongs the time of production reduction, but the intensity of production reduction is not increased, the crude oil price will be limited to be boosted, which is likely to maintain a low level operation.

In order to predict the probability of OPEC + Vienna production reduction and the intensity of production reduction, the CME OPEC watch tool newly launched by Zhishang Institute shows that the probability of maintaining the current production reduction is 73.21%, while the probability of expanding the production reduction is only 15.26%. CME OPEC watch tool uses WTI crude oil option market price data to calculate the implied probability of OPEC event results. The three results are summarized as “increase output”, “maintain output reduction” and “further reduce output”. Then, the tool assigns a probability to each result calculated using the latest weekly and monthly option expiration.

Speed up capacity expansion

Limited growth of domestic demand and new capacity targeted at overseas market

Iran is located near the Persian Gulf in the Middle East, with rich oil and gas resources. Its proven crude oil reserves and natural gas reserves are 158 billion barrels and 1201 trillion cubic feet, respectively, ranking fourth and second in the world. Relying on the superior natural resources, Iran’s petrochemical industry is booming. The export of petrochemical products accounts for about one third of Iran’s trade exports, and has become one of its domestic pillar industries. It is precisely because of such oil and gas resources, Iran has a lot of gas head urea plant capacity.

According to Bloomberg data, from 2009 to 2015, Iran’s urea production capacity has been maintained at more than 4.5 million tons, during which there is no new capacity, mainly because of the slow investment in fixed assets in the post financial crisis era, which makes its urea production capacity unchanged. However, since 2016, nearly 8 million tons of urea production units have been put into operation in Iran, which has increased the domestic urea production capacity by 1.6 times to 12 million tons in 2016, which is in line with the period of large-scale production of olefin and methanol units in Iran in the same period, as well as the period of large-scale production of petrochemical units in other regions of the world, such as China and North America.

The relatively famous urea enterprises in Iran include Pardis Petrochemical Company, Shiraz Petrochemical Company, Raz ipechemical company, marvdasht Petrochemical Company and Khorasan petrochemical company. Among them, the urea production capacity owned by Pardis petrochemical company occupies the first place in Iran, with a capacity of more than 3 million tons. However, from the perspective of capacity utilization, in 2016, 2017 and 2018 after Iran’s urea production capacity was put into operation, the capacity utilization rate was relatively low, accounting for 33.2%, 40.5% and 54.9% respectively, which was quite different from the capacity utilization rate of more than 90% in 2013-2015. This is mainly because Iran is located in the Persian plateau and in the desert area, so the area of arable crops is relatively small, and the growth rate of domestic urea demand is limited.

From the data point of view, the growth rate of domestic urea demand in Iran improved from 2015 to 2018, but the average growth rate of domestic urea demand in Iran from 2013 to 2018 was – 10.75%, which is difficult to digest more than 12 million tons of urea production capacity. As mentioned above, Iran is an important exporter of petrochemical products in the world. It is not hard to see that only exports of urea in Iran can digest the supply increase brought by new production capacity. According to Argus information, Iran still has more than 10 million tons of new production capacity increase targeting overseas export market in the future, including 1075000 tons of lordegan area fertilizer rcompany (originally planned to be put into production in 2019, now it may be In addition, three Zanjan industries Petrochemical Company, Hengam Petrochemical Company, masjed soleyman petrochemical company have plans to put into operation 1075000 tons of production capacity and Kermanshah company’s 6.6 million tons of production capacity respectively.

Less imports, mainly from India

As mentioned above, the high urea production capacity of Iran that does not match domestic demand can only be digested by exports, which is also true from the data. From the perspective of import data, Iran’s urea imports from 2013 to 2018 are relatively small, totaling less than 10000 tons. Of course, this part of the imports may be high-end urea. From the perspective of export data, Iran’s urea exports from 2013 to 2018 were 2.195 million tons, 1.29 million tons, 2.25 million tons, 1.88 million tons, 2.74 million tons and 4.2 million tons, far higher than the imports and even higher than domestic urea in Iran Demand, meanwhile, the overall export dependence rose to 52.2% in 2018 on a month on month basis. Therefore, we believe that Iran is a typical urea export-oriented country, and the current and future urea production capacity is only exported to overseas countries for digestion.

According to Argus, at present, the destination of Iran’s Urea Export is divided into four areas: first, India, which accounts for more than 50% of all exports in the past five years, is the main overseas destination of Iran’s urea supply; second, Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan, Myanmar and other countries around Iran constitute the core area, which accounts for 20% – 30% of exports in the past five years; third, Germany, Belgium South Korea, Poland, South Africa and other countries constitute a non core area, with the export volume accounting for 10% – 20% in the past five years; fourth, the export volume of transit trade market with China as the transit station has gradually increased to about 20% in 2018, among which the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and re increased the sanctions against Iran in 2018, and Iran urea can only be exported to China through transit and then exported to India through operation Market. The main reason for this situation is that the Indian government refuses to accept the Iranian urea supply in the domestic urea bidding procurement considering the relationship with the United States. However, it is reported that the total amount of Iranian urea re exported to China decreased by about 25% in 2019.

China’s high urea cost, Iran’s export channel blocked

As Iran is an important urea export-oriented country, China is also an important part of the global urea export market. From 2014 to 2015, China’s urea exports exceeded 13 million tons and 14 million tons respectively, far exceeding Iran’s urea exports in the same period. This is mainly due to the serious oversupply of urea in China, which made upstream enterprises have to take the initiative to reduce the inventory pressure and export to the warehouse. Then in 2016-2018, China’s domestic urea industry experienced supply side reform, most of the urea plants with backward technology and great damage to environmental protection were eliminated, and the domestic urea price in China rose as a whole, which also made the export competitiveness of China’s urea price sharply reduced, among which the export volume of China’s urea in 2018 was less than 2.5 million tons, far lower than the export volume of more than 10 million tons.

On the contrary, Iran’s urea exports are in a fast growth period. From 2017 to 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of Iran’s urea reached 40% – 50%, and in 2018, Iran’s urea exports exceeded 4 million tons, higher than China’s urea exports in the same period. In terms of Urea Export, we believe that Iran urea and China urea are in a competitive relationship, especially in terms of exports to India. However, both countries are faced with their own problems in terms of exports, that is, China urea is not competitive in the international market due to its high cost, while Iran urea is blocked in export channels due to economic sanctions imposed by the United States.

Summary

Iran is rich in oil and gas resources and cheap, which provides a large cost dividend for many new urea plants in Iran. At present, Iran’s capacity has exceeded 12 million tons, and there may be a new capacity plan of nearly 10 million tons in the future. With such a large urea production capacity, Iran’s domestic demand cannot be digested, so it can only be digested by exporting to overseas markets. However, since 2018, the United States has withdrawn from the Iran nuclear agreement and continued to increase economic sanctions against Iran, which makes the domestic urea export of Iran difficult. Considering that Iran is a battleground for strategic interests of global powers, we believe that the issue of Iran’s Urea Export is full of uncertainty, which is a marginal variable factor that cannot be ignored in the global urea trade market and needs to be focused on.

I. price trend

According to the data in the large scale list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam on December 3 was 11066 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam on December 4 was 10666 yuan / ton, with a single day price drop of 3.61%. So far, the caprolactam commodity index on December 4 is 53.65, down 2.01 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 46.35% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

II. Market analysis

Product: domestic caprolactam continued to decline due to poor demand. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10100 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shanxi yangcoal is 10600 yuan / ton. The 200000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11100 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11200 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device.

Industrial chain: the pure benzene Market in East China remains firm, and the negotiation in the import market goes up. The domestic trade negotiation is referred to 5400-5450 yuan / ton, and the negotiation in the far month is 5200-5350 yuan / ton. There is more wait-and-see in the field, but the increase in the external market does not produce an effective boost, and the weak support in the downstream is insufficient. At present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers, and the delivery level of enterprises is around 7200-7400 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The South China cyclohexanone market has been reorganized and operated. The negotiation is based on 7800-7900 yuan / ton delivery. The main trading intention is at the low end or below. The low price of the enterprise has a great restriction on the market rebound, and the supply side is general. The market of cyclohexanone in East China was reorganized and operated, and 7700-7800 yuan / ton was referred for on-site negotiation. The domestic PA6 market weakened and the spot price fell. Caprolactam continued to decline, poor support for PA6 cost end. Downstream factories just need replenishment operation, the demand is flat and the list is light.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 1.05%.

III. future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the price of upstream raw material pure benzene remains high and the cost support is limited. The downstream demand is not good, and the industry is cautious to wait and see. The supply will increase with the restart of some enterprises in the early stage of equipment maintenance. It is expected that the weak finishing of caprolactam market will be the main trend in the later period.

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, as of December 4, the market of propylene oxide rose, with an average price of 10366.67 yuan / ton, up 0.97% compared with that of December 3, and the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China was 10300-10500 yuan / ton on December 4.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: epoxy propane market rose on the 4th. The market supply is tight, and there is no pressure on the manufacturers to ship. The raw material inventory in the downstream polyether market is low, and the price of propylene oxide manufacturers is mainly increased. On April 4, the cash delivery price of Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 10200 yuan / ton, and that of East China mainstream market was 10500 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 10300 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10200 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in South China is around 10100 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash.

Industry chain: the upstream propylene market fell on April 4, down 1.19%. On April 4, the actual order in the downstream polyether yard was limited.

3. Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analysts of the business club, the market supply is reduced and the downstream raw material inventory is low, which drives the price of propylene oxide up. The price of propylene in the upstream raw material will go down, and the actual order in the downstream polyether yard will be limited, which will affect the price of propylene oxide to a certain extent. In the short term, the market of propylene oxide is expected to rise steadily.