The listing price of soda ash futures is slightly lower, and the spot price is close to the production cost of the factory, and the margin of safety for long-term trading is higher. However, in the context of oversupply and high inventory, there is limited space for rising, so investors can trade short-term, enter the market with light positions, and make long-term bargain.

On December 6, soda ash futures landed at Zhengshang exchange. Judging from the situation in recent trading days, the market is active in trading, with enthusiasm for capital participation, and the contract formulation is in line with the actual spot trading. On December 10, sa2005 and sa2009, the intraday trading limit directly rose, and on December 11, it continued to rise, but there was no significant change in the spot market. In the case of relatively weak fundamentals, the rise height is expected to be limited.

The current situation of oversupply is hard to change

In 2019, the capacity of soda ash will be expanded for a long time again, while the operating rate will remain high, but the demand will not be synchronized, and the market supply will exceed the demand obviously. In 2014, the capacity of soda ash reached a record high of 31.35 million tons. From 2015 to 2016, the capacity was continuously de capacity. By 2017, due to the improvement of demand, the capacity was expanded again. It is expected that the capacity growth rate in 2019 will be as high as 8.44%. In the same period, the capacity growth rate of main downstream flat glass of soda ash was only 5.2%, significantly lower than that of soda ash.

From February to November 2019, the operating rate of soda ash industry was 87.06%, and only 81.56% in the same period of 2018, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5 percentage points. In December, the operation rate of soda ash industry will remain high, and local maintenance will not affect the overall operation. In addition, from January to October, the total export of soda ash reached 1.179 million tons, up 0.7% year on year, and the export was relatively stable. The production capacity has increased substantially, the operating rate has remained high, while the export and consumption are relatively stable, and the price of soda ash is under pressure.

De stocking time node may be advanced

The fourth quarter is the peak season of soda ash consumption. Generally, the factory will respond with high operating rate and high output. After the Spring Festival, when the price falls, the factory will start to repair and the inventory will decline. Data shows that as of December 5, soda ash inventory was 774100 tons, an increase of 30700 tons on a month on month basis, compared with 192200 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 5819000 tons on a year-on-year basis.

At present, the soda ash inventory is still in the rising channel, and is far higher than the same period last year. In the context of high inventory and falling prices, glass enterprises delayed procurement, and traders carefully prepared goods, resulting in accelerated inventory accumulation. In the later stage, the soda market will enter the de stocking stage only when the maintenance of soda plants is increased and the winter storage and replenishment warehouse of glass enterprises is opened. However, in the fourth quarter of 2019, it is different from the previous years. The price of soda ash fell earlier, the time of factory overhaul may be earlier, and the time of soda ash de stocking will also be earlier.

Loss on production in high cost factories

With the decrease of spot price, the profit of soda ash plant shrinks, and some high cost plants even lose money. It is estimated that at present, the profits of ammonia alkali and combined alkali plants are within 100 yuan, which is at a low level since 2017. Generally, low profit lasts for a period of time, which will stimulate the factory to overhaul ahead of time or adjust the operating rate level to achieve the supply and demand rebalancing. Among them, the production of the 8000 T / D units in Shandong Haihua was limited since December 2 due to the impact of environmental protection, and the daily production was reduced by 1500 tons; the 900000 T / a units in Sichuan and hopang were overhauled since December 4; the units in Xindu, Hubei Province are scheduled to be overhauled in the past two days; the units in Shuanghuan, Hubei Province are scheduled to be overhauled at the end of the month. The increase of parking and maintenance devices is conducive to alleviating the imbalance between supply and demand in the soda ash market and stabilizing and rebounding the spot price.

Forecast for future market

Since October, the spot price of soda ash has continued to fall. At present, it is close to the bottom line of manufacturers, and there is little room for further price reduction. Considering winter storage demand and year-end transportation pressure, soda ash price is expected to stabilize and rebound. However, the overall oversupply of the market results in a weak upward drive. Based on the above judgment, it can be expected that the price of soda ash futures will continue to rebound in the short term, but time and space are limited, so investors can try to bargain long.

Affected by the tight supply, PVC prices rose sharply. At present, PVC load cannot be greatly increased in a short period of time, but due to the influence of weak demand, the price may drop slightly. However, in the medium and long term, the tight supply pattern is difficult to change, and PVC is expected to continue to rise.

Supply elasticity is too small

At the end of 2015, the government put forward the supply side structural reform plan of “three removal and one compensation”, and began to implement the elimination of backward production capacity by means of environmental inspection in 2016. In the supply side structural reform, PVC is greatly affected. Some PVC production enterprises are forced to stop production because they still use high mercury catalyst, and domestic PCV supply is gradually declining. At the same time, Western European countries are also phasing out PVC devices with mercury containing process, and the supply gap can only be completed by importing PVC from China, which makes China gradually change from a net importer of PVC to an import-export balance or even a net exporter in recent years. The supply is in a tight balance state as a whole, and the supply elasticity is smaller than other chemicals.

In April, the 400000 ton plant in Dongxing, Inner Mongolia has been shut down due to failure. So far, Yangmei Xiyang, Yunnan nanphosphorus and other plants have also been overhauled (at present, they are still not back to production). The domestic PVC starting load has dropped to a low level (about 65%) in recent years, and the market has been forced to consume inventory to meet the supply gap. At the end of October, the Inner Mongolia triple unit failed to shut down, and the domestic PVC supply further declined. Recently, affected by environmental protection, the starting load of 1.3 million tons of production capacity of Xinjiang Tianye dropped by 1 / 3, which is expected to last for one month.

Fall into the out of stock phase

Due to the fact that the growth rate of real estate construction area this year remains at a high level of about 9%, and the warm winter weather in the north makes some projects shut down later than in previous years, resulting in the PVC slack season and stronger demand performance than expected. In this case, the supply of domestic PVC is in short supply, the social inventory continues to decline, and the price correspondingly rises. As of November 29, the social inventory of PVC in East China was 59300 tons, down 41700 tons from the same period last year, down 41.29%; the social inventory of PVC in South China was 8000 tons, down 76.47% from the same period last year. Social inventory continued to decline, especially in South China, which was at a low historical level, causing the market to fall into a phased shortage stage.

High production profit

With the rising price of PVC, the profit of PVC production enterprises by calcium carbide process is at a high level. At present, the profit of PVC production by domestic calcium carbide process is about 1500 yuan / ton, which is a high point in recent years. Under the condition of high profit, the production enthusiasm of enterprises will rise, but most of the domestic devices for parking and maintenance cannot be produced due to device failure or environmental protection and other factors, so even if the production profit is at a high level, the progress of market supply recovery is relatively slow. The author believes that this phenomenon will last at least until after the Spring Festival, and it is difficult to fundamentally improve the current situation of tight market supply.

However, from the perspective of demand side, although the demand performance of PVC this year exceeded expectations, it is inevitable that demand will drop under the influence of seasonal off-season. At present, the starting load of PVC downstream pipe is 50-70%, and that of profile is 60-80%. The enterprise said that with the demand weakening, the recent order quantity is limited, and the downstream will further reduce the load later, which will continue after the Spring Festival. At the same time, the cable and medical equipment industry, which is not seasonal, has also resisted the high price of raw materials and adopted the strategy of “buy now, use now”. The author believes that although it is difficult for the starting load of enterprises to recover in a short time, it is impossible to further reduce. At the same time, with the seasonal decline of the consumer end, the short-term market short of demand is expected to ease the situation.

Imports are lower than last year

In the long run, the supply of PVC in China is in a tight balance, and the potential market supply is limited. In terms of import, although the PVC anti-dumping duties against the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries are no longer imposed in China since the fourth quarter, the arbitrage space has been closed for a long time due to the strong foreign market price, which makes the domestic import volume this year lower than that of the same period last year, and it is difficult to make up for the market supply pressure in a short time. In addition, the issuance of special bonds in advance by the government is intended to strengthen the construction of infrastructure, so as to boost the enthusiasm of the market, which makes the demand for PVC still guaranteed in 2020, so it is expected that there is limited downward space for PVC.

To sum up, the main reason for the sharp rise in PVC price in this round is the device failure and the tight supply end caused by the environmental inspection. At present, there is no possibility of further deterioration at the supply side, and there is a decline expectation at the demand side. In this case, PVC will enter the stock accumulation cycle, and the price is expected to callback. However, on the whole, PVC supply is in a tight balance state. Under the background of infrastructure increase in 2020, the pattern of strong price is difficult to change, so it is advisable to adopt the strategy of short term and long term.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of light soda ash in East China on November 11 was 1560.00 yuan / ton, down 11.70% month on month. On December 10, the commodity index of light soda ash was 80.00, flat with yesterday, down 32.12% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.68% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

The domestic soda market is weak and stable, and the market is light. At present, the start-up load of soda ash manufacturers is more than 90%, the downstream inventory is sufficient, the demand is limited, the supply pressure of soda ash is obvious, the market confidence is frustrated, the delivery and investment is light, and the enterprise may avoid excessive inventory risk through active maintenance. In December, three alkali plants will be cut or shut down. In the later stage, there are maintenance plans for 1.1 million tons of capacity in Shuanghuan, Hubei Province and 600000 tons of capacity in Xindu chemical industry. Shandong Haihua will continue to cut production. Even if some manufacturers stop production and reduce production, it is still a drop in the bucket in terms of supply, and the operating rate remains high. The inventory of soda plants is still increasing slowly, and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to change in the short term.

On the demand side, the downstream consumption is about to turn into the seasonal off-season, and the upward price of soda ash is lack of power. On the other hand, the fact that the supply of soda ash exceeds the demand has become a reality. The downstream glass factories have sufficient inventory, and the demand and trading are flat. The glass industry production lines have many cold repairs, and the demand side does not support the rise of soda price.

III. future forecast

Analysts of soda ash of business association think that: in the downstream, high profits stimulate the enthusiasm of glass enterprises, and there is an expectation that the demand for heavy soda will improve. Under the pattern of oversupply, soda ash is difficult to take off the downward channel in the short term, but limited by cost and profit, the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market situation of soda ash will be weak and stable. See the downstream market demand specifically.

At the end of the year, the new PX production capacity of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will arrive as scheduled, the PTA new plant is expected to be put into operation, and the downstream polyester market will enter into seasonal maintenance. In the context of lack of cost support and demand pull, PTA may weaken again.

PX new capacity launch

PX is the direct raw material of PTA, which is highly related to the price of PTA. This year’s massive production increase of PX has reduced PX manufacturers from huge profits to losses. From March to may 2019, the PX plant with an annual output of 4.5 million tons in two phases of Hengli was released successively, which increased the capacity by 31% compared with the end of last year, greatly reducing the domestic dependence on imports. The price difference between PX and naphtha fell to US $280 / ton in mid May, down 55% from US $617 / ton in early February. Although the PX plant maintenance support was provided in the middle of the year, and the PX processing fee slightly increased to the range of $300-350 / T, after the National Day holiday, with the 600000 tons of Sinochem Hongrun and the 1 million tons of new capacity of Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. gradually put into production, the price difference between PX and naphtha fell again below the cost line of $300 / T.

Recently, the annual production capacity of 4 million tons of PX of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been opened and half of it has been put into production recently. If it is put into production smoothly, the remaining capacity will be released soon. But at present, PX production has been in a loss state, and the increase of production capacity will increase the market supply pressure, so it is difficult to support PTA price.

PTA supply and demand contradiction deepened

Since 2019, PTA industry has entered the production increase cycle. Within this year, Sichuan Shengda 1 million tons and xinfengming 2.2 million tons of units have been put into production successfully. Hengli phase IV 2.5 million tons and Xinjiang Zhongtai 1.2 million tons of units will also catch up with the last train at the end of this year and put into production. At that time, PTA capacity growth will reach a high of 15%. The rapid increase of production capacity has greatly reduced the profits of the industry. PTA market has stepped from the prosperity in the first half of the year to the depression in the second half of the year. Recently, the spot processing fee has dropped to a low level below 600 yuan / ton.

At present, in addition to the maintenance plan of Hanbang and Sanfangxiang in Jiangyin, PTA device maintenance has been basically completed within the year, the market starting load is above 92%, and will continue to increase in late December. If two sets of new production capacity are released as scheduled in the near future, it will be gradually mass produced at the beginning of next year, thus aggravating the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.

Seasonal decrease in demand

After the expansion of production capacity in the first two years, the growth rate of polyester market output in 2019 is less than that of PX and PTA links in the upstream, but overall, the annual growth rate is still 6.7%. At the same time, the average operating load of polyester manufacturers is also at a high level of 87.8%. However, under the background of high production, the market prosperity gradually declined. Since the fourth quarter, polyester polyester cash flow has dropped significantly, of which polyester and FDY have been in a loss state for more than two consecutive months.

Due to the holiday of the downstream terminal weaving factory, polyester manufacturers usually conduct centralized maintenance around the Spring Festival. According to the maintenance plan announced so far, the maintenance capacity is expected to be 2.33 million tons in December and 3.36 million tons in January next year. With the end of the winter fabric purchase order, after the middle of December, the texturing and weaving factories will be shut down, and polyester warehouse will be inevitable. Under the background of increasing production in the upstream at the end of the year, polyester manufacturers dare not expect to stock up.

In a word, under the expectation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX production increase and two new PTA production capacity put into operation, the PTA market supply pressure will increase at the end of the year, meanwhile, the downstream market demand will also weaken during the Spring Festival, and the PTA price may weaken again.

The methanol units overhauled in Shaanxi, Gansu and Inner Mongolia have been fully restarted at the beginning of this week. In addition, the methanol units restarted after the completion of technological transformation in Northern Shaanxi now have considerable supply capacity again. This is also the reason why the price in Northwest China fell this week.

Affected by the positive factors such as the rapid decline of port area inventory, the decrease of inland supply and the improvement of downstream demand, methanol futures have rebounded in the near future, and the spot market has also risen at the same time. Among them, the spot price in East China rose to 1990 yuan / ton, 80 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of last month, and the main futures contract rose to near 2010 yuan / ton in 2001, 80 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of last month.

Steady growth in mainland demand

In the early stage, several sets of methanol units were overhauled in the inland areas, including 6 sets of 4 million tons of units in Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, which resulted in a shortage of supply in the northwest. At the same time, the southwest natural gas methanol plant was overhauled in advance unexpectedly last week, and 3 new 1.6 million tons of methanol units were shut down. The balance of supply and demand in inland areas has been broken rapidly, and the market is in short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term state of supply and demand.

The downstream demand in the mainland is relatively strong. In addition to the stable traditional downstream demand, the 300000 ton / year methanol to olefin unit in the west of Shandong Province was successfully commissioned last week. At the same time when the export of methanol was stopped, the daily purchase volume was 300-400 tons. The market demand in Shandong Province increased rapidly, driving the overall price higher.

Rapid decline of port inventory

In the early stage, the port area has maintained a normal inventory of 1.2-1.3 million tons. However, last week, the port area’s inventory dropped by a large margin of 150000 tons. In addition, the previous weeks’ inventory dropped. At present, the port area’s inventory has dropped to a reasonable level near 900000 tons.

On the one hand, due to the recent closure of the Yangtze River fog, part of the cargo unloading is slow; on the other hand, due to the rapid reduction of supply in the northwest and southwest regions, and the low spot price in the port area, the backflow window from the port to the mainland has been opened, and the inland Shandong, Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei regions have started to accept imported methanol, resulting in the port area inventory There was a rapid drop.

Abundant supply in later period

Through careful analysis, it can be found that the current methanol market is in a good state, which is difficult to continue. First of all, the natural gas to methanol plant in Southwest China will be limited for about one month this year, and the early shutdown means the end of maintenance and start-up in advance, which will severely suppress the methanol market in January next year. Secondly, the methanol units overhauled in Shaanxi, Gansu and Inner Mongolia have been fully restarted at the beginning of this week. In addition, the methanol units restarted after the completion of technological transformation in Northern Shaanxi now have considerable supply capacity again. This is also the reason why the price in Northwest China fell this week.

In the port area, the closure caused by heavy fog and other weather factors has been gradually lifted in the near future, and the ships with demurrage in the early stage have begun to unload gradually. According to incomplete statistics, there are about 150000 tons of methanol in the port area. After the fast unloading of these methanol, the inventory in the port area will have a surge process.

In terms of downstream demand, the recent haze in the north is serious, and a new round of environmental protection and production restriction has begun. In December, the formaldehyde operating rate will gradually decline, and the methanol demand will decline is an indisputable fact.

Winter is a stable period for the start-up of methanol plant in North China. Unless there is an accident, the possibility of maintenance in winter is low. Inland methanol plant will always maintain a high start-up and relatively stable supply. However, the downstream demand for methanol in coastal areas will be significantly weakened, and the traditional downstream start-up will be reduced. Some methanol to olefin units will also be overhauled in December. Under the premise of no reduction in the import to port volume, the supply pressure in the port area is not optimistic. It is worth mentioning that, despite the decline of inventory in the port area, the tradable inventory is still maintained at more than 300000 tons, indicating that the supply is still abundant.

To sum up, in the early stage, due to the superposition of unexpected factors, the market may be temporarily prosperous or come to an end. At present, the methanol 2001 contract is close to delivery, and the set holding position is larger than that in the same period of previous years, indicating that the market is still bearish.

I. price trend of lithium hydroxide:

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average price of enterprises on November 10 was 67666.67 yuan / ton, the average price of enterprises on December 10 was 57666.67 yuan / ton, and the monthly drop of lithium hydroxide was 14.78%. In a three-month cycle, it fell 19.16% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: Recently, the overall market of lithium hydroxide has shown a downward trend. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Eugene Industrial Co., Ltd. is 60000 yuan / ton, and the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Zigong tongfarong Industrial Co., Ltd. is 55000 yuan / ton. The specific price will be discussed in a single way.

Industry chain: since December, the upstream lithium carbonate price is still in a downward trend, with the decline of industrial lithium carbonate of 1.65% (12.1-12.10) and battery lithium carbonate of 0.73% (12.1-12.10). At present, enterprises are still pessimistic about the future market. Some enterprises take the initiative to reduce the price for shipment due to the pressure of inventory and cash flow, while some enterprises still have the pressure of inventory, and the price goes with the market.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on December 9, 2019, in the list of commodity prices, there were 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were dichloromethane (5.77%), bisphenol A (5.38%) and organosilicon DMC (2.12%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and there are 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are lithium hydroxide (- 13.50%), caustic soda (- 6.25%) and epichlorohydrin (- 5.33%). The average price of this day was – 0.2%.

3. Future forecast:

Analysts of lithium hydroxide in the business club believe that the price of upstream lithium carbonate market is weak and the cost support is weak. The operating rate of industrial grade lithium hydroxide has been at a low level, but the downstream demand is light. It is expected that the market of lithium hydroxide will be stable in the short term.

Commodity index: on December 10, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.13% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.70% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 1, 2019, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15966.67 yuan / ton, and on December 10, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.23% in the first ten days of this month.

Industry chain: upstream: from December to now, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market has fluctuated and increased. On the first day, the quotation was about 10500 yuan / ton, on the fourth day, it soared to 12000 yuan / ton, and on the ninth day, it fell back to about 500 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton. Judging from the market trend in the second half of the year, the high price of acrylonitrile appeared in the late September, and the price has been reduced in a ladder way since October, with an overall decrease of 2000-3000 yuan / ton in five months, shaking Swing range of 15% or so, this month’s market shock up. Downstream: in winter, the construction amount of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a greater impact. Manufacturer: the current production of the manufacturers in the main production area of Henan Province is normal. Occasionally, the production will be stopped due to environmental protection inspection. The output will not be affected much. The supply of goods is sufficient, and the price will be slightly reduced.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. Since the fourth quarter, the manufacturer’s production is basically normal; the environmental protection inspection is strict, there are occasional stoppages, the production impact is small, and the market mainstream quotation is small and down.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, in December, the north is in the heating season, and the project construction volume is reduced to a certain extent, the procurement volume is slightly affected, while the impact in the south is not significant. Environmental protection inspection is strict in all regions, production is occasionally stopped, the overall production of manufacturers has little impact, and the supply of goods is stable. So far this month, the price of acrylonitrile, as the upstream raw material, has been raised by about 1000 yuan, and the cost of polyacrylamide has increased. In conclusion, polyacrylamide is not likely to be significantly lowered, and the market will maintain a small fluctuation trend.

Commodity index: on December 10, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 105.41, flat with yesterday, 3.30% lower than the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, and 4.47% higher than the lowest point of 100.90 on April 09, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: the mainstream price of domestic polyaluminium chloride Market in the first ten days of December is about 1950 yuan / ton. In the second half of 2019, after experiencing the high price caused by the shutdown from August to October, the current price has returned to 1950 yuan / ton on July 1; in five months, the lowest price is 1916.67 yuan / ton on July 20, the highest price is 2016.67 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude is 5.22%. According to the monitoring data of the commodity by the business agency (100ppi. Com), the main quotation range of the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride mainly focuses on: the quotation with tax of 1800-2200 yuan / ton for polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial level, content ≥ 28%), 380-450 yuan / ton for liquid (Industrial level, content 10% – 12%), and 10 yuan / ton for a few manufacturers.

Industrial chain: in the five months from July to November, when the manufacturer’s operating rate is high, production is normal, goods volume is sufficient and demand growth is stable, the supply is surplus and the price is down; in the middle of August, due to the influence of environmental protection and other factors, the manufacturer’s starting is limited, the supply of goods is reduced and the price is up, which continues until the late September. After the National Day in October, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers returned to normal, and the supply of goods was relatively stable. Generally speaking, in addition to the sharp rise of polyaluminium price caused by the shutdown in the third quarter, the price of polyaluminium chloride slightly decreased in the fourth quarter; the trend in November was similar to the extended version of “Z”; the price was stable in the first ten days of December, maintaining at 1950 yuan / ton. In the upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business agency was reduced by about 50 yuan / ton in December, and 290 yuan / ton was quoted on December 1, after which, the price was reduced in a volatile way, and about 259 yuan / ton was quoted on December 10. The downstream demand was stable and the volume was sufficient.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. 4. Since the fourth quarter, the manufacturer has been in normal production and occasionally stopped production due to environmental protection inspection, but the overall production is normal and the supply of goods is sufficient.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the overall production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers was normal in December, the impact of environmental inspection was not significant, the supply of goods in the market was sufficient, and the upstream cost was slightly reduced. It is unlikely that the price of polyaluminium chloride will fall sharply in the future, which is mainly stable, with occasional small fluctuations and little impact.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) has been declining continuously in recent days. At the beginning of the week (December 2), the average price of enterprises is the weekly high price, 7062 yuan / ton. At the end of the week (December 7 and 8), the average price of enterprises is the weekly low price, 6747 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 4.47%.

II. Analysis and comment

Product: at the beginning of December, influenced by the international crude oil market “Black Friday”, the price began to decline. The price has fallen by 300 yuan / ton this month. The price was still lowered on the 7th. At present, the market transaction has dropped to about 6720-7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6720-6750 yuan / ton. At present, the heavy fog in Shandong, the logistics is not smooth, and the external sources of goods are blocked, which supports the propylene market. The spot price of polymer grade propylene in the United States fell 1.25 cents on Thursday, to the lowest level in more than three years, which had a negative impact on propylene.

Industry chain: upstream, the weekend OPEC + meeting production reduction agreement was postponed and strengthened, and the international crude oil rose sharply, which had a positive impact on propylene. In the downstream, the downstream procurement is slightly better, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

Recently, PP spot market still has a slight downward trend, with a weekly decline of 0.79%, which has little impact on propylene.

This week, the supply of acrylic acid decreased, and the market price rose, with a weekly increase of 1.69%. However, the downstream market is just in need of receiving goods, so we should be more cautious and wait and see. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable, which will only benefit the propylene market.

In recent days, due to the reduced supply of propylene oxide Market and low inventory of downstream raw materials, prices rose, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. However, the actual order in the polyether yard is limited, which will have a certain impact on the upward price of propylene oxide. It is expected that in the short term, the market of propylene oxide will rise steadily, which will have a certain pulling effect on propylene.

However, the price of epichlorohydrin still fell, down 33.51% since November 1. At present, its cost support is weak, the downstream epoxy resin is in weak operation, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is not reduced, there is no obvious positive factor, and the upstream power is insufficient, which still has a significant suppression effect on the propylene market.

In recent days, the supply of n-butanol in China has been recovered one after another, the mentality of the industry is weak, and the market has no good news to drive, with a weekly decline of 1.59%, which has little impact on propylene.

The price of octanol remained stable this week, with little impact on propylene.

Phenol market rose slightly this week, up 1.04% on a weekly basis. The market was average, with a slight positive impact on propylene.

Acetone market recovered slightly after this week’s decline, with a weekly decline of 2.68% and a weekly amplitude of 3.30%. It is expected that the market will continue to be weak, with limited impact on propylene.

Isopropanol prices also fell this week, down 3.63%, which had a negative impact on propylene market.

III. future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the propylene market has been declining in recent days. At present, the spot price of polymer grade propylene in the United States is lower, but the logistics in Shandong has a slight impact, the OPEC + meeting production reduction agreement has been postponed and strengthened, and the international crude oil has risen sharply, so it is expected that the market price of propylene should start to stabilize and recover in recent days.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spot market price of PTA in China rose slightly. As of December 9, the average price was 4865 yuan / ton, 0.30% higher than the previous trading day, and 27.92% lower than the previous year. The futures market was volatile and strong, and the main futures (2001) closed at 4820 yuan / ton, up 28 yuan / ton or 0.58% compared with the previous trading day. The spot market is dominated by traders, with sporadic factories receiving orders. In terms of plant, the 2.2 million ton PTA plant of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is planned to be shut down for maintenance on December 10, and the planned maintenance is 10 days. The current starting load is around 96%.

Changes of PTA plants in China

Enterprise name capacity device dynamics

Maintenance in December is planned for hailun Petrochemical 120

Chuanneng chemical 100 fault stopped short on November 1, and the current load is 80%

Hengli Dalian 220 fault short stop

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. postponed the shutdown for maintenance until Dec. 10, with a planned maintenance period of 10 days

In terms of cost, the news of crude oil production reduction was boosted, and the international oil price continued to rise. As of December 6, the main futures price of international crude oil WTI was $59.20/barrel, up $0.77/barrel compared with the previous trading day, and the main futures price of Brent was $64.39/barrel, up $1.00/barrel compared with the previous trading day. The PX market in Asia closed at US $788 / T FOB South Korea and US $808 / T CFR China, unchanged from the previous trading day.

The starting load of downstream polyester is reduced to below 87%, the market price of polyester filament is basically stable, the quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is cautious, and the transaction is mainly for negotiation and shipment. The individual specifications of polyester FDY are increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, of which the price of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is increased by 7100-7200.00 yuan / ton. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has declined. At present, it is around 70%, and the raw materials just need to be purchased. In autumn and winter, the transaction of clothing fabric is coming to an end. The terminal factory is currently in the process of making foreign Christmas orders. The orders are basically coming to an end, and the orders will be gradually reduced from December.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business club, believes that the rising crude oil drive and PTA’s own device overhaul have a positive impact on the price, but the PX discharge and PTA supply and demand in the evening of August 8 of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. are still in the period of accumulation and polyester start-up decline, and it is expected that PTA will further rebound to drive the shortage.