In mid November, the domestic ABS market remained weak and continued to trend, with most spot prices of various grades lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 17th, the average price of ABS sample products was 8725.00 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -4.59% compared to early November.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since November, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has fluctuated, with large stability and small fluctuations. In the first half of the year, production lines of aggregation plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were shut down. In the middle of the month, the load in Shandong increased, and the overall operating level of the industry was narrowly raised to 72%, with an average weekly output of around 145000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is close to 260000 tons, holding firm at a high level. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices continues to be weak.
Cost factor: In mid November, the overall trend of ABS upstream materials was weak, which had a negative impact on the cost side of ABS. During the acrylonitrile cycle, there was no significant improvement in the fundamentals this week. The overall supply remains loose, and there is an increase in enterprise inventory. Although the spot price has reached a low point in the early stage, downstream users have basically completed buying orders on dips. Fortunately, the prices of upstream propylene and synthetic ammonia have rebounded, and the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production has increased. At present, the operating rate of various downstream sectors is stable, and there is insufficient market action. It is recommended to closely monitor the trend of the device in the future market.
The domestic butadiene market in China experienced overall fluctuations in November. As prices continue to decline, it has also attracted some downstream buyers to replenish their inventory at low prices, driving the trading atmosphere in the spot market to improve. In addition, with strong pricing from suppliers, the market has slightly rebounded. On the other hand, there has been no effective improvement in downstream terminal demand, and the market lacks favorable factors to boost it. It is expected that the butadiene market will mainly consolidate in the short term.
The recent decline in styrene prices has led to a slight recovery. Affected by sluggish demand and poor profits, styrene supply remains weak, and ports maintain regular destocking. Although the situation of losses in the raw material pure benzene continues to exist, with the price hitting a new low and downstream entering the market at a low price, the market has rebounded, which has a bottoming effect on the cost side of styrene. Overall, the current demand for styrene has entered a low season, and with limited positive support, it is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.
On the demand side: The downstream factories of ABS have average loads, and the total demand pool size is average. The overall stocking logic of terminal enterprises still maintains the urgent need for replenishment, and the flow rate of goods supply is slow. The inventory position of merchants is also high, and under the increasing pressure of on-site sales, enterprises and merchants continue to operate by offering discounts and taking orders. On a macro level, due to the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises and external market turbulence, the consumption of the main downstream electrical appliance shell industry has been hindered, and there has been no increase in future production. The Double Eleven shopping festival has limited impact on industry consumption, and the cautious atmosphere in both domestic and foreign markets has resulted in poor industry momentum. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Market outlook
In November, the domestic ABS market in China continued to decline. The production load of the aggregation plant remains stable with small fluctuations, while consumer demand remains low and flat. Business analysts believe that the long-term supply-demand imbalance of ABS has plagued the market, dragging down spot prices. At the same time, the raw materials have weakened, and the mentality of industry players is often negative. It is expected that there will still be downward pressure on ABS in the short term.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |