On November 18, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 60.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.26% from 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 25.88% from 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In recent years, the price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market has been fluctuating. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride is weak. The downstream factories maintain rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure increases, and the high-end transaction is blocked. In recent years, the factory inventory has increased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market continues to be at a low level. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 6000-6600 yuan / ton and 5700-5900 yuan / ton respectively. In North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5900-6200 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers in the field maintain low prices. The downstream construction is not high. The main purchase is on demand. The wait-and-see state is relatively strong. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is sufficient and the downstream demand is not high See improvement, phthalic anhydride price low shock.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. The price of imported phthalic anhydride in the port area is declining, and the quotation is temporarily stable. In the near future, the price of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the port inventory is still at a low level, and the quotation of phthalic acid in the external market is volatile and stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, with detailed discussion. Affected by the low price of upstream raw material phthalic acid, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable 。 Downstream DOP raw material, phthalic anhydride price, isooctanol price, DOP raw material cost, DOP price shocks and stabilizes, downstream DOP shocks and warms up, customer purchasing enthusiasm is stable, and downstream PVC market shocks and rises. The mainstream quotation in DOP market is about 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the downstream price trend is declining. In addition, the upstream ox price is low. Due to the impact of the downstream product decline, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to maintain a low price later.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc market remained depressed in November, and the zinc price fell in shock. As of November 19, the price of zinc was 18646.67 yuan / ton, down 2.76% from 19176.67 yuan / ton on November 1, down 15.70% from the same period last year. The overall performance of zinc market in November was low.

II. Market trend analysis

Price trend of zinc in LME Market

As can be seen from the figure, zinc prices in LME futures market fell in November. As of November 18, LME zinc ingot quotation was US $2383 / ton, compared with us $2540 / ton in early November, and zinc price fluctuated and fell. The zinc price in LME market fluctuated and fell, which was negative for domestic zinc market. The domestic zinc price lost the support of rising power, and the zinc market in the future was negative.

Zinc price trend in Shanghai Futures Market

As can be seen from the figure, the futures price of zinc in Shanghai futures market fell in November, and the overall zinc market fell in November. As of November 19, the price of zinc ingot in Shanghai futures market was 18375 yuan / ton, down from 18890 yuan / ton at the beginning of November. In November, zinc price in Shanghai futures market fell in shock, which was bad for domestic spot market, and the downward pressure on domestic spot market increased.

Domestic zinc production

It can be seen from the figure that compared with 2018, the domestic zinc production in 2019 has increased significantly, and the zinc production has maintained a double-digit growth rate for four months, and maintained a high growth rate for six consecutive months. Compared with 2017, the output of zinc ingot in 2019 still increased slightly. It can be seen that the sharp decline of zinc ingot production in 18 years caused by environmental inspection has been alleviated, the production of zinc ingot has returned to normal, and the production capacity of zinc ingot has recovered. The supply of zinc ingots increased, the supply of zinc exceeded the demand, and the price of zinc was negative.

III. future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, believes that: in the international market, LME zinc price fell in November, increasing negative pressure on the international zinc market, which was negative for the domestic zinc market; in the domestic zinc market, the zinc price in Shanghai futures market fell in shock, the futures market fell, which was negative for the spot market. With the continuous and substantial increase of zinc ingot output, the zinc market has changed from oversupply to oversupply, and the oversupply market is increasing; in terms of demand, the demand of zinc market is cold, and there is no obvious positive stimulus. Generally speaking, the supply of zinc market increases month by month, the demand does not pick up significantly, the oversupply of zinc market aggravates, the futures market falls, which collapses the cost support of the spot zinc market, and the spot price of zinc market fluctuates and falls. At the same time, due to the cost pressure of zinc ingot, there is limited space for zinc ingot to fall, and it is expected that zinc price will fluctuate and fall slightly in the future.

According to BPS data, as of October 2019, the export volume of nickel ore in Indonesia has reached 26.65 million tons, or exceeded the 26.06 million tons quota approved by esdm. Nevertheless, the Ministry of energy and mineral resources refuted the claim that nickel ore exports exceeded the quota.

Unfortunately, the Ministry of energy and mineral resources is reluctant to explain the differences in this data. Yunus saefulhal, manager of mining and mentoring at the Ministry of energy and mineral resources, said, “please forgive me for not commenting on nickel ore issues.”

The discrepancy in nickel ore export data is the main reason why the government suspended the export of nickel ore for two weeks from October 29. But now, the ban has been lifted since the government set up an investigation team. According to the investigation, the export quota has not been exceeded. Although the number of ships carrying nickel ore from China increased from about 30 under normal conditions to 150.

Bambang gatot, director of the coal and Minerals Bureau of the Ministry of energy and mineral resources, said there was no sign of deviation in the field verification of the dramatic increase in the number of ships carried by erifikasi.

One reason, he claims, is that mining companies want to be able to use up the remaining nickel ore export quotas by the end of the year. “In line with the quotas and mining capacity issued.”

In August 2019, the government announced the policy of accelerating the prohibition of nickel ore export, which came into effect at the beginning of 2020. The original plan was to allow nickel ore export to 2022.

In fact, before August 2019, some mining companies had been granted export quotas until 2020. As a result, the company actively increased its output so as to implement the export quota by the end of 2019. “Mining companies are trying to catch up with the ban on exports in January 2020.”

According to the investor daily, there was a sharp rise in nickel ore exports in 2013, reaching 64.8 million tons, near the time of prohibition. At that time, the government announced that since the beginning of 2014, the export of coarse ore was prohibited, and according to coal and minerals Act No. 4 of 2009, the export opportunities of coarse ore were clarified for five years.

According to the data of the Central Statistical Agency (Indonesia), the actual export volume of nickel ore in 2010 reached 17.5 million tons, which is higher than that of 10.4 million tons in 2009. Next, in 2011, exports soared to 40.7 million tons or 132% higher than the same period last year. In 2012, the number of exports increased again to 48.4 million tons.

In 2013, the export volume soared, or at the last moment of the implementation of the export ban in 2013, the export volume reached 64.8 million tons.

In 2017, the (Indonesian) government once again opened the export channel of nickel ore, but the export license was limited, that is, only to the mining companies that built smelters. Evaluate the construction and development of smelters every six months. If the construction progress of smelters fails to reach 90% of the target, sanctions will be imposed, i.e. the export license will be cancelled.

I. price trend

The TDI commodity index on November 18 was 62.61, down 1.41 points from yesterday, 74.76% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), and 4.06% higher than 60.17, the lowest point on February 22, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: according to the statistics of the business agency, the price trend of TDI in the East China market was lowered on the 18th. The average price of TDI in the East China market was 11833.33 yuan / ton, down 2.20%. The TDI market in East China is weak, the atmosphere is low, and the volume of transactions is insufficient. The industry has reported stable negotiation and shipment, and the low price is still kept. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 11600 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: compared with the previous trading day, the price of toluene of Sinopec’s enterprises in South China was raised by 150 yuan / ton. The listing price of Shandong refining enterprises is stable today, about 5700 yuan / ton, and that of traders in East China is stable, about 5800 yuan / ton. In terms of nitric acid, at present, the price trend in East China is stable, the weak quotation of manufacturers tends to be stable, and the prices of some manufacturers are slightly reduced. Nitric acid market demand is still weak, the market is weak and stable, and weak consolidation is expected in the later stage.

Industry: the factory is still weak. Last week, the guidance price of Shanghai factory has been reduced to 12100 yuan / ton, and the settlement price of North factory is 11900 yuan / ton. The supplier is more negative. Some factories abandon the price and guarantee the quantity, which depress the market mentality and reduce the market confidence. The low price spot and futures market continue to refresh. The overall mentality of the industry is pessimistic, and the profit continues to be delivered. The market atmosphere is low, and the transaction volume is insufficient, Low price offers are frequent.

III. price forecast

TDI analysts of business agency think that after the narrow decline of domestic TDI market last week, the downstream follow-up is still sluggish, just need to follow up with small orders. With the downward price exploration, the mentality of the industry tends to be cautious, and the decline slightly slows down. It is expected that the TDI Market will be weak and volatile this week, and pay attention to the factory news guidance.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 18, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several major areas monitored by the data is 17033 yuan / ton, up about 270 yuan / ton, or 1.59% compared with last Thursday (November 14).

II. Market analysis

Products: November is a traditional off-season, and the domestic silicone market is in a state of up and down extrusion without a breakthrough. Last week, the silicone DMC market as a whole was still weak. Until last Friday, in order to stimulate market demand, the prices of some factories in the silicone DMC market were increased, with the local increase of 300-500 yuan / ton, and the market situation was more volatile under the guidance of the upstream. With the downstream Orders have increased, the overall supply side of the site is relatively tight, the inventory quantity is reduced, and the firm mentality of the merchants is increased. Until today, the offer has moved up 300-500 yuan. The support from the bottom of the market is more and more stable, and with the increase of export demand, the market is supported by favorable conditions. When the supply is lower than the demand, the market price is fluctuating upward. Today’s monitoring data shows that: the main market quotation of organosilicon DMC manufacturers is 16500-18000 yuan / ton, and the transaction is slightly warmer, with the transaction price rising about 200 yuan / ton. However, some large transactions still approach the cost line, leaving little room for profit, and some downstream buyers are cautious and go with the market to buy goods. Therefore, whether the organosilicon DMC market can conduct smoothly after the price increase We need to continue to focus on downstream demand and cost support.

Industry chain: in recent years, the price trend of domestic silicone oil market is stable and slightly fluctuating, with little fluctuation up and down. The global economy is still in depression, which leads to the lack of demand for silicone oil in the industry, the unsatisfactory data of domestic and foreign sales, and the unwillingness of downstream terminals to take more goods and store them, all of which are taken as they are used. At present, the price of imported silicone oil remains stable. Due to the general demand, the delivery of agents is also relatively light. The main quotation of comprehensive imported methyl silicone oil is around 18400-20000 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Analysts of business club think: it is expected that the high price volume of silicone market will not be too large in the short term. If the price is not followed by the demand after the manufacturer’s rise, it is difficult for the market to keep high support.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 × 3)

2. Latest price (November 18, 2019): 11725 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11500-11600 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11400-11600 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 11700-11800 yuan / ton. 。

3. Key points of analysis: Sichuan Yunnan silicon plant’s production reduction overlaps the low silicon price in the early stage, and the cost factor becomes the leading factor. Domestic manufacturers have strong willingness to hold up the price, and the silicon price has increased significantly since August.

At the supply end, with the return of silicon price, some silicon plants in Xinjiang started construction actively. It is reported that in October, the operating rate of silicon metal industry was 46.9%, increasing by 1.7 percentage points on a month on month basis, decreasing by 9.9 percentage points on a year-on-year basis.

On the demand side, the domestic rigid procurement is the main part, the early procurement is more, and the export is relatively flat.

4. Future forecast: the overall supply will move down, and the focus will be on the change of downstream demand. It is expected that the short-term operation of metallic silicon will be mainly strong.

I. price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to run at the bottom this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1783.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1783.33 yuan / ton, up or down 0.

II. Market analysis

Product: in November, the overall market of sodium metabisulfite is still in a downturn. The market price range of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is 1700-1900 yuan / ton, most of which are concentrated around 1800 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is relatively sufficient, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the new order transaction is limited, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of the old customers. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industry chain: in November, the price of soda ash and sulfur in the upper reaches fell again, the cost of raw materials fell again, the purchase and sale of trade subjects were more cautious, and the market price of sodium metabisulfite was slightly under pressure.

III. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that the cost of raw materials is weakening again, the market demand continues to be weak, and a lot of negative air is suppressed. In the short term, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is under pressure.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, this week’s soda ash operation is mainly stable. In the week, the average market price in East China was 1730 yuan / ton by the end of the week, down 36.36 yuan / ton, or 2.08%, compared with last weekend, down 18.52% year on year. On November 15, the commodity index of light soda ash was 88.72, which was the same as yesterday, 24.72% lower than 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and 40.49% higher than 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic soda price is mainly in stable operation, the market continues to decline, and the trading atmosphere is light and stable. At present, the mainstream factory price of domestic light soda is 1600-1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream delivery price of domestic heavy soda is 1850-1950 yuan / ton. This week, the heavy soda market continues to decline, the factory’s delivery situation is general, the transaction center continues to move down, the delivery pressure of soda manufacturers increases, and there are many manufacturers Execute month end pricing.

Industrial chain: in the downstream, the price of sodium metabisulfite is stable this week, with the average domestic production price of 1783.33 yuan / ton. The overall market performance is average. At present, the devices of manufacturers are in normal operation, and the order receiving situation is good. It is expected that the market price of sodium metabisulfite in China will continue to be weak.

This week, the price trend of glass in the lower reaches of the whole slightly increased, while that in some regions slightly decreased. The difference between the north and the South increased, and the transaction was fair. The market in North China is stable, moderate and small. The prices of some Shahe factories are down, and the market prices keep falling. The terminal market demand in South China and East China is fair, and the market prices are mainly up. Northeast, southwest and northwest glass production enterprises offer relatively stable prices. From a regional perspective, the North-South Division is still obvious. The market as a whole maintained a steady, medium and small upward trend.

Industry: there is no pressure from environmental protection policies on soda ash enterprises, and the inventory of enterprises keeps rising. In addition, domestic soda prices are decreasing and the goods are slowing down. The vitality of the downstream demand side of soda ash is limited, and under the influence of no obvious demand increase, the supply is excessive and the original balance relationship continues to tilt, and the market is still weak.

III. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that: the downstream demand is weak, the price of soda ash remains low, coupled with the current traditional peak production season, the planned maintenance is limited, and the starting load of soda ash manufacturers remains high. On the other hand, recently, the price of liquid alkali has continued to decline, which has a negative impact on the market of soda ash. The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the market confidence is insufficient, and the domestic soda ash market still bears some downward pressure in the short term. It is expected that the market of soda ash will be dominated by consolidation at a low level. See the downstream market demand for details.

Introduction: the cumulative growth of industrial value-added data above Designated Size published by the National Bureau of statistics has continued to decline year-on-year. Through the analysis of industry by industry, we can finally find out the impact of trade war on Global trade and on China’s import and export trade from the continuous decline of China’s industrial export delivery value growth. The export of plastic products, especially polyethylene polypropylene, has intensified The industry is deeply affected, and the price bottom is still on the way.

I. the added value of industries above Designated Size continues to decline

The latest October data released by the International Bureau of statistics shows that the downward pressure on the economy is still high. In October 2019, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.7% year-on-year (the growth rate of the following added value is the actual growth rate after deducting the price factor), 1.1 percentage points lower than that in September. From a month on month basis, in October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 0.17% over the previous month. From January to October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.6% year on year.

As shown in the figure, in terms of the accumulated value-added of industries above Designated Size, the trend of continuous decline in recent two years shows that the economic downturn continues. From a year-on-year perspective, the added value of industries above Designated Size in August was 4.4%, falling below the 4% level for the first time, a new low in 17 years, and 5.8% in September. The economic downturn seemed to be suspended, and another 5% in October reached 4.7%. The downward pressure on the economy continued to increase. The U.S. economy has been outstanding. For three consecutive months, the manufacturing PMI of ISM was below the boom and bust line of 50. The initial value of quarterly GDP fell and consumption fell, making the global economic growth slowdown likely to enter into “resonance”, trade war and other uncertain factors, increasing downward pressure.

II. The industrial added value of raw material end and terminal is not optimistic

In October, the value-added of chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry increased by 3% year-on-year, while that of rubber and plastic products industry increased by 3.9% year-on-year. Obviously, the growth rate of downstream products industry is faster than that of upstream raw materials. The difference between the growth rate of the two industries narrowed for three consecutive months, because the decline rate of products industry in October is faster than that of raw materials. In October last year, the price of PE, PP and other plastic raw materials began to decline. The growth rate of rubber and plastic products was significantly lower than that of raw materials. Generally speaking, with the decline of the price of raw materials, the cost of end products decreased. From the perspective of the growth of plastic products, the current situation of the product industry is slightly better than last year.

From January to October, the added value of chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry increased by 4% year-on-year, while that of rubber and plastic products industry increased by 4.8% year-on-year, showing a continuous downward trend in the year. The growth difference between the two is the same as that of last month, which is larger than that of previous months, indicating that the decline in the price of raw materials supports the growth of terminal output. The added value of plastic products industry is slightly higher than that of the same period of last year, both year-on-year and cumulative year-on-year, indicating that the downstream industry of plastic products is better than that of plastic raw materials.

III. under the trade war, the growth rate of export delivery value continued to accelerate and decline

Export delivery value: refers to the value of products exported by industrial enterprises (including those sold to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) by themselves or entrusted to foreign trade departments, as well as the value of products produced by foreign investors such as samples, processing, assembling and compensation trade. The value of export delivery is different from that of export. Export is essentially a demand side indicator, which measures the total value of the products exported in the current period, that is, it is not necessarily the current production; while the value of industrial export delivery is the value of the products produced in the current period, delivered to the foreign trade operation department or self export, so it can more represent the real prosperity of the supply side in the current period.

The trade war cannot be ended. Global trade is greatly affected, which not only affects the U.S. economic downturn, but also more affects China’s economic growth. In terms of industrial export delivery value, the logistics of chemical raw materials and chemical products industry has declined year-on-year or cumulative year-on-year, and the more serious is that both the year-on-year and cumulative ratio are negative, and the expansion trend is intensified. The rubber and plastic products industry is slightly better, showing a negative value year on year, and the cumulative ratio is close to a negative value. The data shows that it affects the export of China’s chemical industry and rubber and plastic industry. The more uncertain the trade situation is, the more cautious enterprises are expecting to reduce current production. After all, the plastic industry still has a certain share of exports to the United States. Instead, PE and other raw materials are imported into the United States more.

To sum up, the macro data reflects that the export of rubber and plastic products industry continues to be depressed, and the prices of PE and PP plastic raw materials are still not optimistic. In the case of macro downturn, it is better to follow the trend. In terms of the ex factory price index of synthetic materials and plastic products, they continued to decline year on year, and there is no bottom signal yet.

Thailand encourages the export of natural rubber to boost farmers’ incomes, according to Thailand’s commerce minister on Wednesday, after ending a four-month export ban a few weeks ago.

After negotiation, Thailand will export 260480 tons of rubber to two private buyers in mainland China and Hong Kong, said jurin laksanawisit, Thailand’s commerce minister. Including 160480 tons of 20 standard glue (str20) and 100000 tons of tobacco film (RSS3). The value of the above agreements is not less than THB 13 billion (US $428 million).

The minister also said that Thailand had recently exported 100000 tons of rubber worth 7.5 billion baht to India. He would also visit Turkey and Germany to sign more export agreements.

As part of a plan by the world’s major rubber exporters to boost international rubber prices, Thailand cut its natural rubber exports in the four months from the end of May to the end of September this year.

The trilateral rubber Committee (ITRC), composed of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, agreed in March to jointly cut the export volume of Tianjiao by about 240000 tons.

ITRC said last week that the three countries eventually cut exports by 441648 tons.

According to ITRC report, in the first half of 2019, the total rubber exports of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia decreased by 10.6% compared with the same period last year, which was partly due to the decrease in supply.

A fungal disease called Pestalotiopsis broke out in rubber plantations in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia during the peak cutting season in October December, causing leaves to turn yellow.

The fungus first broke out in Indonesia and Malaysia, and then spread to Thailand. It has a serious impact on the rubber trees in the main rubber producing countries.

Under the threat of the disease, rubber production in the affected areas may be halved. At present, more than 450000 hectares of rubber plantations in the three countries are reported to have found the disease.