As the Lunar New Year approaches, overall demand in the Asian plasticizer market is likely to slow. There are three reasons:

1. Buyers remain cautious

2. Cost pressure on manufacturers remains

3. The seller hopes for the demand after the festival

On the other hand, due to the recent rising trend of raw material prices, with the rising cost, it is unlikely that manufacturers will make the goods cheaper at this juncture.

The price of upstream propylene and 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH) is stronger, because some producers reduce production, while others seriously consider reducing operating rate, leading to tight supply.

Most parts of Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia are celebrating the lunar new year. January 25 is the lunar new year. From January 24, China will have a full week off.

Buyers of plasticizers can take advantage of the long holiday as an opportunity to further study the market. The purchase is still cautious, the demand has not increased significantly, and the downstream demand after the festival is uncertain.

After the festival, some buyers may find that their inventory is low, and some manufacturers may hold more goods, because the Northeast Asia plant has no planned outage.

Investors have turned to look at the price trend of previous years to find some clues about the market trend.

For dioctyl phthalate (DOP), spot prices in East Asia after the lunar new year have been rising since 2017, although the increase in 2019 is relatively small.

According to ICIS data, on January 9, 2020, the average spot price of DOP was assessed as $940 / T CFR East Asia, up $5 / T from the previous week.

1、 Price trend:

On January 11, crude benzene commodity index was 74.72, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.33% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 90.37% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

This week (1.06-11.10) the domestic crude benzene market was raised. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 4735 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week was 4771.67 yuan / ton, up 0.77%.

Domestic market: this week’s pure benzene port inventory slightly lower than last week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the situation in the Middle East, the oil price soared, driving the price of pure benzene to rise in the external market and the domestic market to rise. Crude benzene rose to 4650-4700 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 50 yuan / ton compared with last week. In the near future, the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have started relatively stable operation, with the operating rate slightly increased to about 60%, and the demand for crude benzene is stable.

Industry chain: this week’s oil price shows a parabola trend, which goes down for four consecutive days after Monday’s big rise. Earlier this week, oil prices rose as concerns about the supply or decline of crude oil increased as tensions in the Middle East escalated last week. Later, oil prices fell sharply due to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and signs of easing in the Middle East. WTI fell by 6.1% and Brent by 2.8% compared with January 3; pure benzene: Port inventory of pure benzene decreased slightly this week compared with last week. Affected by the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, oil prices soared, driving the price of pure benzene up in the external market and the domestic market. However, in the later period, the oil price plummeted and the support surface weakened. In addition, the downstream trading has been light and the profit is insufficient, so the market fell back. Downstream: this week, styrene market is in a narrow range of volatility consolidation trend. The arrival of styrene in the main port increased. Generally speaking, the styrene market was forced to stay short this week, with a trading deadlock, up 1.17% compared with last Friday. In the lower reaches of Shandong Province, aniline enterprises competed for shipment, and Jinling reduced 100 yuan / ton, or 0.52%. The upstream pure benzene price is still high, the downstream demand is light, and the profits of aniline enterprises are in deficit.

3、 Trend Forecast:

At present, the external market of pure benzene has a limited boost, crude oil returns to the previous level, the follow-up direction is unclear, the winter transportation is more difficult, the north is snowy, the transportation is limited, the North resources are difficult to enter East China for arbitrage, the freight price increases and other adverse factors are more, the downstream demand of crude benzene is stable, the crude benzene market before the budget savings is mainly consolidated, and it is difficult to have large fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market price of ammonium sulfate rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 556 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average ex factory price was 566 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.8%. So far, the ammonium sulfate commodity index on January 14 is 47.28, down 0.14 points from yesterday, 55.51% from the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.00% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: in recent years, the regional difference of coking grade ammonium sulphate is obvious in China, and the price has gone up and down. The price of domestic ammonium sulfate is weak and stable. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 420-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 480-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-680 yuan, that in North China is 420-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is weak, the quotation is stable, and some enterprises adjust slightly, focusing on early orders. The downstream purchases on demand and orders in the early stage. The enthusiasm for replenishment is not high. In some areas, transportation is blocked due to snowfall weather, and goods are moving slowly. The compound fertilizer enterprises are in a weak consolidation stage.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association, although the domestic market has increased the inquiry of ammonium sulphate, the actual operation is general, and the industry mostly takes a wait-and-see attitude. The price of domestic ammonium sulfate manufacturers is firm, and the price of coking grade fluctuates slightly. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate in the later period will be mainly weak and volatile, and the market before the festival will not be favorable, so it is suggested to be cautious.

At present, the main contract price of styrene futures fluctuates in a narrow range of 7300-7500 yuan / ton for more than one month. Recently, under the influence of the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, although the main contract price rebounded, it still failed to break through this operating range. Looking forward to the future, the contradiction between supply and demand of styrene still exists, and the period price may be dominated by weak operation.

Limited impact of us Iraq incident

On January 3, the United States carried out an air raid on Baghdad International Airport, killing major general Sulaimani of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Tensions in the Middle East escalated rapidly, international oil prices soared, and styrene rebounded. On the morning of January 8, Beijing time, the U.S. Air Force Base in Iraq was attacked by rockets, and the energy and chemical sector rose again rapidly. The tense situation in the Middle East stimulated the sharp rise of crude oil, which to some extent pushed up the cost of styrene. However, as the proportion of styrene imported directly from Iran is less than 3%, its direct impact on domestic styrene supply is limited. And trump said the United States will impose new economic sanctions on Iran, but is willing to cooperate with Iran on common interests. Subsequently, the international oil price fell sharply, and the market confidence in long styrene will also weaken.

Rapid expansion of production capacity

According to the domestic production situation, the price of pure benzene has increased recently. The data shows that on January 8, the price of Jiangsu’s cans was 5900 yuan / ton, about 150 yuan / ton higher than the low point at the beginning of the year. The price of ethylene is relatively stable near the lowest level in the past decade. The price of raw materials increased steadily, and the profit of styrene was poor in the near future. According to rough estimation, the production cost of styrene in East China is about 7600 yuan / ton, and the processing profit is about – 300 yuan / ton. Although the production efficiency of styrene is not ideal at present, there are not a large number of units in China for shutdown maintenance. Data shows that as of January 2, the national styrene operating rate was 82.5%, near the highest level in the same period of nearly six years. At present, the 300000 t / a styrene unit of Xinyang Technology is still under maintenance, and it is planned to restart in mid January; Shandong Yuhuang plans to start on January 10, and there is no new maintenance plan. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic styrene operating rate will remain high in the near future.

To make matters worse, on December 30 last year, the “40 million tons / year refining and chemical integration project (phase I)” oil refining, aromatics, ethylene and downstream chemical plants invested and built by Zhejiang Petrochemical Company have opened the whole process, realized stable operation and produced qualified products. Zhejiang Petrochemical phase I project involves an annual production capacity of 1.2 million tons of styrene, accounting for about 13% of the existing domestic production capacity. In addition, in the first half of the year, Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Guba) styrene plant with an annual capacity of 720000 tons is planned to be put into operation. In the second half of the year, Baolai chemical, Anhui Jiaxi and other units are planned to be put into operation. It is expected that domestic styrene supply will become more relaxed.

Insufficient demand follow-up

At present, the overall profit of the downstream industry is still good, but some industries are in the off-season demand. Data shows that in early January, EPS gross profit of East China was about 730 yuan / ton, PS gross profit was 1000-1110 yuan / ton, and ABS manufacturer’s profit was about 1900 yuan / ton. High profit makes the industry’s willingness to reduce the negative rate of operation weak, but some industries continue to decline due to the impact of the off-season. As of January 2, the operating rate of EPS industry is 47.34%, which is the seventh consecutive week of decline. As the real estate industry has entered the construction slack season, it may continue to decline in the later period. PS demand is good, and the commencement has been improved, but Jiangsu green an Qingfeng stopped for maintenance on January 5, and will restart in early February, about 25 days of maintenance, which may lead to a slight decline in the operating rate of the industry. ABS, UPR and styrene butadiene industry are relatively stable 。 In addition, in the near future, most prices in the downstream market have declined slightly, and the overall operating rate of the short-term downstream industry is likely to weaken slightly.

From the medium and long-term analysis, in 2020, the new capacity of downstream EPS, PS and ABS is planned to be 740000 tons, 400000 tons and 200000 tons respectively, which is less than the increase of upstream capacity. In addition, most new downstream units are planned to be put into operation in the second half of 2020. Considering the postponement, the capacity that can be realized in 2020 will be more limited.

In a word, the domestic styrene operating rate is at a high level. In addition, new units of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. are put into operation, and there are few new maintenance plans. It is expected that the supply of styrene will be loose in the short term. On the demand side, it is difficult to significantly increase the demand due to the holiday near the Spring Festival downstream. Styrene is expected to gradually enter the accumulation stage. In terms of operation, it is recommended to give priority to short selling and set stop loss.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China on January 13 was 1583 yuan / ton, down 1.04% from last week.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid is stable temporarily, that of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1500 yuan / ton, the price is stable; that of Anhui Jinhe is 1450 yuan / ton, the price is 50 yuan / ton lower than last time; that of Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid is 1800 yuan / ton, the price is stable temporarily. Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1750 yuan / ton, the offer is temporarily stable; Huainan Audley chemical concentrated nitric acid offers 1500 yuan / ton, the offer is temporarily stable; nitric acid demand is weak, the enterprise offer is weak.

Industrial chain: liquid ammonia, the raw material in the upstream of nitric acid, some manufacturers in Shandong Province had loose supply last week, and the enterprise’s shipping pressure increased gradually. However, the manufacturers with large ammonia volume mainly stabilized their prices, and they have been shipping in succession. The main quotation in Shandong Province is 2850-2950 yuan / ton. Last week, the price of aniline in Shandong Province was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, while the market price of aniline in Shandong Province was 6200 yuan / ton last Friday, down 1.59% from 6300 yuan / ton last Friday.

3、 Future forecast

The nitric acid analysts of the business association predict that the nitric acid market may continue to be dominated by weak operation.

On January 13, the PX commodity index was 55.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.09% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.19% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, in recent years, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has remained volatile, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi has been started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang has been started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant has been overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical has been put into operation, the operation of other plants is stable temporarily, and the domestic p-xylene plant has been installed The market supply of p-xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On January 10, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 5 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 797-799 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 817-819 US dollars / ton CFR in China. About 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The decline of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market in the United States recently fell to US $59.04/barrel, or US $0.52, while Brent crude oil futures fell to US $64.98/barrel, or US $0.39. The energy information administration reported an increase of 1.2 million barrels in crude oil inventories in the first week of the new year and a further decline in crude oil prices, after a decrease of 11.5 million barrels in the week before the EIA report. Analysts had expected a decrease of 4.064 million barrels in the week to January 3. The authorities also reported that the gasoline inventory increased by 9.1 million barrels, and the average daily fuel output during the reporting period was 8.9 million barrels, compared with 3.2 million barrels in the previous week, and the average daily output was 10.2 million barrels. The decline of crude oil price was negative for domestic chemical prices, and the domestic p-xylene price trend was temporarily stable.

In terms of raw material PTA, the recent price remains at the level of 4900-5000 yuan / ton, the PTA operating rate remains at about 85%, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is reduced to around 30%. Weaving enterprises show the phenomenon of reducing the number of orders and lack of stamina. In winter, the turnover of fabrics decreases month by month, while in spring, the order of fabrics is relatively limited. At the same time, near the end of the year, most enterprises are reducing prices to inventory in order to recover funds, and later loading and weaving factories will be shut down for holidays, PTA market price changes little, and the trend of p-xylene price is temporarily stable.

In the near future, crude oil prices continue to decline, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market, but the downstream demand of the terminal is general, and business analysts believe that PX market price may remain stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 13, the market of n-propanol was weak and stable, and the average price of sample enterprises was basically the same as that of last week (January 6). At present, the main quotation of domestic n-propanol traders is around 10500-11400 yuan / ton. Due to the large price difference between different packaging specifications, the main quotation of imported barrel n-propanol from Dalian, Taiwan is around 11600-12000 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since the beginning of 2020, the main market of n-propanol in China has been running steadily. After a slight increase at the beginning of the month, it is basically the same as that at the end of 2019. On January 13, the market of n-propanol in China is mainly weak and stable. The ex factory quotation of n-propanol produced by Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. is stable at the end of December, with a reference price of 8500 yuan / ton (net water including tax). Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd The price of n-propanol sold in Zibo, Shandong Province is stable, with an external quotation of 10500 yuan / ton (including tax barrels); the price of imported n-propanol bulk water sold by Yexing chemical industry in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone is around 9800 yuan / ton, and the price of barrels is around 10500 yuan / ton; the price of imported n-propanol sold by Shanghai Lianyi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 11600 yuan / ton (barrel specification: 165kg). As dealers in different regions offer different prices or reserve prices, the price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiations or differences, and there are differences in each region, and the actual single negotiation is the main one. In the future, we need to wait and see the price change and delivery of raw materials.

Industry chain: in the near future, the market of propylene oxide has been running smoothly, the start-up of propylene oxide plant is stable, the inventory is controllable, the market supply and demand are balanced, and the quotation of enterprises in this cycle is mainly stable. The delivery price of cash in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical on October 10 was 9950 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 9900-10000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is around 9600-9800 yuan / ton, and that in South China is around 9700-9800 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency: the downstream demand of domestic n-propanol is general, and the domestic production capacity basically reaches the supply and demand. It is expected that in the short term, the trading volume of n-propanol market is still average, downstream demand is waiting for recovery, and the overall market maintains stable operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China this weekend was 503.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as the average ex factory price of 503.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 64.88% from last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic sulfur market fluctuated slightly this week, with low downstream construction, high port inventory, lack of information guidance in the field, waiting for a strong atmosphere, price shocks and consolidation operation. At present, the supply and demand of sulfur market is weak. Due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the downstream demand is in a low level, and the delivery performance of refineries in various regions is not good. In the week, refineries in various regions adjust their quotations according to their own delivery conditions, among which, the quotations in East China and Shandong are stable, and the prices of refineries in North China are reduced by 30 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the downstream sulfuric acid market is still strong and weak in supply and demand, with limited favorable support. The domestic market operates in a differentiated way, with local ups and downs showing each other. Some major acid plants in Shandong Province continue to raise their acid prices, while others remain on the sidelines. In recent years, there are many severe weather conditions in the province, and there are certain limitations in transportation. In addition, the acid companies dare not adjust their prices in a rash manner, and the market is mostly stuck. Consider environmental protection and weather impact, acid city or weak finishing later.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business association, at present, the market demand is low, the downstream factory starts at a low level, the port inventory is still high, the mainstream factory is well stocked, the market lacks the guidance of substantive information, the attitude of the operators is different, the stalemate wait-and-see mood is dominant, and it is expected that the overall operation of the market will be dominated, depending on the situation of the factories in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the price trend of domestic TDI market is stable this week. The average price of East China market in this week is 11700.00 yuan / ton, up 2.03% from 11466.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week, down 16.82% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic TDI market has been reorganized and operated. The trading atmosphere in the market is light. The holiday atmosphere has begun to accumulate. The company’s offer is mainly stable. The downstream market has gradually entered the holiday state. The intention to enter the market has weakened, and the activity of buying is low. In addition, the recent price is relatively high. Some of them have turned to futures after the year, and there is a lack of spot trading. As of the 10th day, the domestic goods in East China will be delivered with bills and offer reference to 11400-11600 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in terms of nitric acid, the price this week is weak and stable. The average ex factory price in East China is 1600.00 yuan / ton in the week. The market of nitric acid industry is sluggish and the demand is fair. The quotation of enterprises is basically stable and weak. It is expected that the nitric acid market will continue to be weak. In terms of toluene, influenced by political factors, international crude oil futures fluctuated significantly in the intraday, and toluene market also fluctuated. In the first half of the week, affected by the sudden tension between the United States and Iran, the market rose rapidly. In the second half of the week, due to the gradual relationship between the United States and Iran, the market volatility fell. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5600-5650 yuan / ton. It is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency: the TDI market “long empty game”, the supplier takes no inventory pressure as the advantage, the factory pushes up the offer of the manufacturer, but the downstream response to the high price is flat, the manufacturer is now more stable and wait-and-see, the low price is spared, the atmosphere is weak, it is expected that the TDI market will be operated in a narrow range in the later period, and pay attention to the factory news.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price trend of cryolite market this week is stable. The average market price in the week is 5966.67 yuan / ton, which is 1.13% higher than the same period last month and 5.29% lower than the same period last year..

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the price trend of cryolite is stable. The ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is about 6500-6950 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 5000-6400 yuan / ton. At present, the cryolite enterprises in Henan Province have sufficient inventory, fair transaction, and stable quotation. Affected by the environmental protection policy, the upstream output has been reduced, the raw materials are in short supply, and the price of cryolite has also been adjusted and operated. Before the year, the inventory of the enterprises was fair, and they were sold on a single basis.

Industry chain: the price trend of fluorite in the upstream of cryolite this week is stable, and the average price in the domestic market at the weekend is about 2894.44 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week. In recent years, the domestic fluorite plant has been started normally, the mine and flotation plant in the field have been started normally, the price has not changed much, the supply of goods in the field is normal, the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, the market of goods is general, the downstream is purchased on demand, and the spot supply of fluorite is normal. In the downstream aluminum industry, the aluminum price this week shows a “U-shaped” trend, with the average market price at the beginning of the week at 14553.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week at 14533.33 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton, with a 0.14% drop in the price within the week. The overall price has little change. In winter heating season, aluminum production may be reduced due to the impact of environmental protection industrial production policies.

3、 Future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of business association, the supply and demand contradiction of cryolite market is still the same at present, and the downstream purchase tends to be low. However, affected by the upstream raw materials, the enterprise’s quotation or stable operation is expected to continue to consolidate the cryolite market in the later period, with specific attention to market demand.