On February 14, the reporter learned from the national energy administration that at present, the overall situation of energy supply and demand in China is stable, and the supply of electricity, coal, refined oil, natural gas and other key areas in Hubei Province is stable.

As of February 13, there are 996 coal mines in production in China, with a recovery rate of 63.8%; the coal inventory of the national unified dispatching power plant is available for 24 days, at a reasonable level; the overall operation of Hubei power grid is stable, and the main power generation factors are sufficient.

Epidemic situation is order, prevention and control is responsibility. Since the outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia, the national energy board has implemented the energy supply protection to tackle the epidemic as the primary task at present, guiding and supervising the resumption of energy production and energy production, carrying out daily scheduling analysis, actively carrying out the link between production and transportation needs, studying and solving major problems in a timely manner, and making every effort to ensure the energy conservation of the epidemic prevention and control and the normal operation of the economy and society. The national energy system takes the responsibility of being responsible for local affairs, and providing solid energy guarantee for winning the prevention and control of epidemic.

The head of the National Energy Administration said that at present, the situation of coal mine resumption affected by the epidemic situation has been effectively changed. The coal production in all regions has been growing steadily, and the supply and demand of electric coal are basically stable, providing a strong basis for energy security for the prevention and control of the epidemic.

As of February 13, there were 996 coal mines in production with a capacity of 2.65 billion tons / year, an increase of 138% and 64.2% respectively compared with February 1; the coal mine capacity recovery rate was 63.8%, an increase of 24.9 percentage points compared with February 1; the production on that day was 6.47 million tons, an increase of 56% compared with February 1.

At present, the national power system operates stably, the power supply is generally abundant, and the power production safety is normal.

As of February 13, the coal inventory of the national unified dispatching power plant has been available for 24 days, which is at a reasonable level; among them, Hubei has been available for 41 days, which is at a high level. There is sufficient supply of oil and gas resources in China. Affected by the epidemic situation in Hubei Province, in the first ten days of February, the consumption of refined oil and natural gas decreased year on year, the situation of supply and demand was generally relaxed, and the supply of oil and gas was fully guaranteed. The natural gas pipeline of huoshenshan hospital and leishenshan hospital has been successfully supplied.

There are six factors that will affect the Asia Pacific natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) market in 2020, wood McKenzie, a consultancy, said in a recent report.

Asian LNG spot prices fell further

In 2019, the global LNG market relies heavily on Europe to absorb the excess supply. LNG production from projects in the United States and Australia has surged, and LNG demand in the Asia Pacific region has stagnated. Spot LNG can only be sold to Europe at a discount price.

Robert Smith, director of research at wood Mackenzie, said: “Europe will be asked again in 2020 to save this situation. However, unlike 2019, European gas inventories reached record levels early this year. As a result, Europe will rely more on flexible supply or increased demand in the power sector than it did last year. Both show that gas prices will be lower in 2020 and spot prices in Asia will also fall. However, if tensions between the United States and Iraq escalate in 2020, leading to the disruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, there will be risks in the supply of LNG from Qatar. “.

Market liberalization and lower LNG spot price

Malaysia and Thailand have finally liberalized their natural gas markets. Last year, Malaysia imported a batch of LNG spot from shell, breaking the monopoly position of Petronas for the first time. With the successful entry of third-party companies into the country’s market, TNB’s Procurement Department expects to seek more goods this year.

EGAT recently imported the first LNG cargo. This is the first test of third-party access control after the market is monopolized by PTT.

In South Korea, new energy and industrial consumers are also seeking to bypass kogas to import natural gas independently.

ASLA, chief analyst at wood Mackenzie, said, “the low spot price of LNG provides a reason for emerging buyers to buy. Whether Petronas Malaysia, Petronas Thailand or Korean natural gas companies, they have a series of relatively high price long-term supply contracts. The ability to purchase LNG from the spot market will provide additional profits for end users and improve their competitiveness in the market. After several spot transactions, these new buyers and LNG suppliers will be confident in the commercial operation ability of LNG purchase “.

Declining demand for natural gas and LNG in China

In 2019, the growth rate of China’s natural gas demand dropped to 9% from 17% in 2018. The slowdown has affected overall energy demand.

“With the operation of the Siberian power pipeline and the first batch of natural gas from Russia to northern China, LNG demand is likely to decline in winter 2020,” said Huang miaolu, senior manager of wood McKenzie. In addition, China’s natural gas production is still growing at a faster rate than in previous years. If this situation continues in 2020, the growth rate of natural gas import will slow down. “.

Although China’s coal to gas process slows down in 2019, natural gas still accounts for a higher share in the energy structure, surpassing coal and oil.

Northeast Asia’s resistance to coal

More and more air quality problems have prompted North East Asian markets such as South Korea to adopt new energy policies to reduce coal power generation.

“The fall in coal use last spring shows that South Korea has had some success in reducing seasonal emissions,” said Lucy Cullen, an analyst at wood Mackenzie. Early reports also showed that South Korea’s carbon emissions fell in December last year. If the winter coal limitation measures in 2020 continue to have a positive impact and avoid power outage, then seasonal coal limitation is likely to become the norm in Northeast Asia and benefit LNG. At present, the Northeast Asian energy market does not support large-scale coal to gas policy. However, in the next few months, we will pay close attention to whether the combination of carbon emissions and sustained low prices can provide impetus for a larger coal to gas policy in 2020. “.

Southeast Asia will launch policies to support natural gas

In 2020, several policy documents that may shake the natural gas market in Southeast Asia will be released. Natural gas is expected to play a more prominent role in the start-up of the master plans for the electricity and gas markets in Thailand and Vietnam. This will provide key strategic signals to market participants in the region.

Vietnam will increase its gas power generation capacity in the medium term, which will increase the share of natural gas in Vietnam’s power structure. It is expected that in 2020, many integrated gas-fired power generation projects will occupy a place in the forthcoming power development plan.

India regasification receiving terminal put into operation delayed

New regasification capacity is crucial for India to take advantage of low spot prices. However, India’s regasification development project has a history of delays, mainly due to the difficulty in completing the connection with the grid, thus limiting the capacity to a lower level.

Analysts said that Mundra and Jaigarh are the trial operation targets of this year’s regasification project. Two receiving terminals were originally planned to be put into operation in 2019, but have been delayed for various reasons. Another major new capacity project is the expansion of dahej receiving terminal. It is planned to increase the capacity by 2.5 million tons per year, which will be completed in 2020.

Nigeria’s oil production is likely to decline by 35% in the next 10 years, wood McKenzie, a consultancy, told Reuters on Thursday, as regulatory uncertainty and costs under the downturn in oil prices could prompt oil majors to postpone their final investment decisions on the three deepwater projects.

Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa. According to the monthly report released by OPEC this week, the daily output of Nigeria in January 2020 was 1.776 million barrels. Combined with the production of condensate, Nigeria’s total oil production exceeded 2 million barrels / day.

However, according to a study shared by wood Mackenzie with Reuters ahead of Friday’s publication, the start dates of three deepwater projects off the coast of Nigeria, operated by oil giants ExxonMobil, shell and total, are likely to be delayed by two to four years until the end of 2020.

According to wood Mackenzie, the regulatory reform of Nigeria’s oil industry, as well as the oil bill, which is still to be finally approved after 20 years of delay and debate, has played a deterrent role in the investment decisions of oil giants.

In addition, the consulting firm pointed out that the three deep-water projects are not profitable in terms of current oil prices when the Brent crude oil price is lower than $60 / barrel, and the three projects may increase the output of Nigeria by 300000 barrels / day.

Australia is the only country in the Oceania region to increase oil and gas production by 2020, according to oil and gas news on February 15.

According to global data, a leading data analysis company, the country covers all final investment decisions in the coming year, with 71% of projects already under construction. By 2020, with more than half of the FIDS associated with liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, Australia appears to remain the largest exporter of LNG. 2019 is the first year that the country’s LNG export volume exceeds Qatar’s in a continuous year.

Joseph wisdom, an upstream oil and gas analyst at global data, commented: “it is particularly noteworthy that the final investment decision of the two projects, Scarborough and Barossa, is expected to produce a total of about 10 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas. However, there are also smaller projects that want to take advantage of the country’s LNG situation. Jacobs will be the country’s second flng project, hoping to take advantage of the region’s idle natural gas assets. ”

In Oceania, some key projects launched in 2020 include Blackwatch, haselgrove and sole, all located in Australia, and Maui redevelopment project and supplejack in New Zealand.

In the sole project, the first batch of natural gas was delayed in the fourth quarter of 2019 due to delays in the completion of the natural gas plant in obost, Victoria, and the threat of bushfires to the plant. Recoverable reserves are estimated at 232 billion cubic feet (BCF). The development includes a single vertical offshore well connected by pipeline to the obost gas plant.

As for FID, the key projects in Oceania to reach FID in 2020 include Scarborough, Barossa, Jacobs and cruise, all located in Australia.

1、 Price trend

On February 14, the antimony commodity index was 55.86, up 1.39 points from yesterday, down 45.41% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.90% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: the price of antimony oxide rose with the trend of antimony ingot on Wednesday. As of Friday, the average price of antimony oxide was 99.5% at 35500 yuan / ton, and 99.8% at 38000 yuan / ton. Raw materials: affected by logistics, road closure and delayed resumption of work, most of the mines are still in shutdown.

Domestic market: the market price of antimony ingots rose this week, mainly affected by the supply shortage. The main antimony producing areas in China are concentrated in Hunan, Guangxi and other places. Most of the large antimony enterprises in Hunan are in the whole line shutdown state. It is expected that the resumption time will be mostly postponed to the end of February, and the measures such as road closure in Hunan region will stop the transportation. Therefore, the price of antimony ingots continued to rise this week, and the price was up to Friday 2 × low bismuth antimony ingot: 39000 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingot: 39500 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingot: 40500 yuan / ton, up 2000 yuan / ton. 2. The average price of high bismuth antimony ingot is 35000 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future prospects

The resumption of work will increase gradually next week, but road transportation and other conditions cannot be substantially improved. At present, antimony products are in different levels of supply shortage. It is expected that this situation will not be improved before the end of the month, and antimony series products will rise steadily in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1890 yuan / ton on February 10, 1916 yuan / ton on February 15, and the price rose 1.41% this week. On February 15, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 64.16, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.37% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 3.33% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data in the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on February 10 was 2200 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on February 15 was 2200 yuan / ton. The price remained stable this week. The diammonium phosphate commodity index on February 15 was 65.62, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 36.28% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate: the price of monoammonium phosphate rose this week, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 40%. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850 yuan, 2000 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1850-2000 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2000-2150 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Diammonium phosphate: this week, diammonium phosphate has been running steadily, with an operating rate of about 40%. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2200-2350 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 2250-2350 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at present, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole is still shut down and shut down, the start-up of enterprises is still low, the market atmosphere is light, the transaction has not yet recovered, the market demand starts slowly, many mines delay the start-up to about 15, and the enterprises in production do a proper amount of inventory. At present, the market prices of phosphorus ore in various places are basically examined before the year, and the current market is waiting to be sorted and operated. After, the start-up of liquid ammonia enterprises was generally delayed, the market entered a window period, few dealers entered the market, and generally fell into a closed state. In addition, affected by traffic, the transportation of liquid ammonia also entered a bottleneck period, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of liquid ammonia after the year.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of business agency ammonium phosphate, the current operating rate of Monoammonium is down, the supply of goods is insufficient, and the price of enterprises is up. Affected by the transportation, the freight is high, DAP enterprises temporarily maintain the price before saving, and more early orders are executed. It is expected that in the later stage, the monoammonium market is still likely to rise, and the overall trend of diammonium is mainly stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic refrigerant R134a market is temporarily stable this week. On February 10, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 23333.33 yuan / ton, and the average weekend price was 23333.33 yuan / ton. This week’s market was temporarily stable. On February 14, the R134a commodity index was 85.37, flat with yesterday, down 14.63% from the highest point of 100.00 (2019-09-02), and up 2.94% from the lowest point of 82.93 on November 12, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R134a market of refrigerant market is stable temporarily this week. This week, the trend of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end rose, supporting refrigerant R134a. However, at present, the transportation is limited. In addition, the downstream demand has not been started yet. The supply and demand of R134a are roughly balanced, and the price maintains stable operation. According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of February 14, R134a price is concentrated around 21500 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising. Recently, the factory in the field is not in good condition. Some factories have not resumed production due to the impact of the epidemic. In addition, the transportation is slow to change. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight. In addition, the inventory of enterprises not shut down during the Spring Festival is exhausted, and the purchase demand is increased. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is higher. The terminal air-conditioning enterprises delayed the start-up, the on-site inventory was acceptable, and the demand for refrigerant R134a was weak.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business association, some enterprises of refrigerant R134a have not started work at present, and the traffic is limited. It is expected that the price of refrigerant R134a will be lowered when the new capacity is put into use after the formal resumption of work.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the domestic methanol market fell again. As of February 13th, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2005 yuan / ton. Prices fell 8.34% month on month and 9.03% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: during the Spring Festival, most of the methanol enterprises are in normal production, while the traditional demand drops to the freezing point of the year. Due to public safety emergencies, most of the downstream methanol enterprises that have stopped are not back to work, and the logistics recovery is very slow. The pressure on the raw material procurement and finished product sales of the downstream methanol enterprises is prominent. After the festival, the main downstream start-ups are generally reduced by 7-40%, such as acetic acid, MTO, MTBE, etc., which makes domestic methanol The demand is even worse; although the start-up of methanol enterprises has decreased by about 10%, it is still in the pattern of supply exceeding demand, and the short-term methanol trend is still declining, but the transaction price of many places falls below the cost line, and the decline is expected to slow down.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is in a downturn. Formaldehyde and downstream enterprises are still not back to work, the upstream methanol market continues to decline, and the cost and demand are difficult to be favorable. Lonzhong information believes that the short-term formaldehyde market is difficult to improve, and will remain weak.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is stable. Downstream overall construction is still on the low side, the overall automobile transportation in the market is limited, the transaction in acetic acid market is not smooth, and the inventory quantity of some manufacturers continues to accumulate. As a whole, the market is full of negative air. Under the deviation of continuous supply exceeding demand, the acetic acid market is in a passive stalemate, with stable short-term offers and weak long-term ones.

Dimethyl ether: the transaction price of domestic dimethyl ether Market is mainly stable, and the trading atmosphere is general. The price of the main production area is 3100-3150 yuan / ton, which is stable; the price of Southwest China is reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 3300-3450 yuan / ton due to poor delivery. According to Longzhong information, at present, it is difficult to recover the traffic, to support the transaction price, and the price is still weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, it is difficult to purchase raw materials and sell costs for methanol plants, and the production load of some methanol production enterprises is reduced; in Iran, the methanol plant shut down due to gas restriction at the early stage is still not recovered, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to decline in February. On the negative side, since the Spring Festival, domestic methanol downstream products have shown different performances, and the overall demand has shown a downward trend. Except for the smooth commencement of acetic acid, DMF and other downstream products, the rest have decreased to varying degrees; the commencement of methanol to olefin enterprises has slightly decreased, and the unit load of Jiutai, Zhongtian hechuang and ningxiabaofeng in Inner Mongolia has decreased by 20-30%; the other two sets of MTO units in the port have maintenance plans in late February. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that in the short term, China’s methanol market might be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulphate in China was 566 yuan / ton on February 3, and 563 yuan / ton on February 13, with a price drop of 0.59%. On February 13, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 47.14, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.65% from 106.28 (2012-05-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.62% from 36.65, the lowest point on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: after the Spring Festival, the market of ammonium sulfate is light. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 420-630 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 480-700 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-650 yuan, that in North China is 420-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: due to the impact of the epidemic, some enterprises in some regions have not yet started work, and the return time is to be determined. Most enterprises have inventory. Raw material market rose steadily. The raw material cost of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises increased, but the logistics transportation was blocked. The stock pressure of ammonium sulfate enterprises increased.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are five kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top three commodities are isopropanol (1.47%), 1,4-butanediol (0.82%) and butanone (0.76%). There are 25 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are ox (- 7.94%), PX (- 6.67%) and glycol (- 6.47%). This week’s gains and losses were – 0.64%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association believe that the current market of ammonium sulphate is not good due to logistics and transportation problems. The price of coking grade ammonium sulfate decreased slightly, and its internal grade ammonium sulfate operated stably. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate slightly in the later period, and it is suggested to pay attention to the change of demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business association, the price of chlorinated paraffin is stable after the Spring Festival, and the average ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin on February 13 is 4933. Up to now, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on February 13 is 73.45, which is the same as yesterday, 32.88% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 15.04% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, most chlorinated paraffin enterprises have not started work due to the impact of the epidemic. The ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5400 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4600-5400 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5200 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market price of raw material liquid wax remained stable, with few transactions, the market atmosphere was weak and cold, and the market was not volatile. Affected by the epidemic situation, the raw material liquid chlorine market was blocked from construction, the price remained stable for the time being, and the surrounding supply was temporary.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are five kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top three commodities are isopropanol (1.47%), 1,4-butanediol (0.82%) and butanone (0.76%). There are 25 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are ox (- 7.94%), PX (- 6.67%) and glycol (- 6.47%). This week’s gains and losses were – 0.64%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association, due to the impact of the epidemic, many enterprises have shut down their installations, and the demand side has not improved, with manufacturers mainly stabilizing prices. It is expected that in the later stage, the chlorinated paraffin market will continue to be weak, with light operation as the main trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of logistics and demand.