In 2019, copper price went out of the trend of fluctuating and falling back. Specifically, it is divided into two stages: from the beginning of the year to the middle of April, driven by favorable factors such as continuous problems at the supply side, copper price went out of a relatively smooth rebound market; after that, copper market was full of benefits, market worries about economic prospects and repeated Sino-US trade negotiations have always dominated copper price fluctuations, and copper market is unable to maintain counter trend Spring, start the oscillation falling pattern. In 2020, the supply of copper concentrate will be better than that in 2019, and it is expected that copper price will mainly fluctuate.

No significant changes in the global macroeconomic situation

In 2019, the OECD lowered its economic growth expectations for many times in its global economic outlook. In its report released on November 21, it is expected that the global economy will only achieve 2.9% growth in 2020 and not exceed 3% in 2021. The global economic growth will enter the slowest period since the international financial crisis in 2008. The IMF also lowered its economic growth forecast four times, and lowered its global economic growth forecast to 3.4% in 2020. The pressure on global economic growth is prominent.

US stimulus policy may be suspended, and the general election will not hinder the trade friction strategy

In 2019, with the change of Sino US trade negotiations, the monetary policy orientation of the Federal Reserve has also changed significantly. From the release of “the strongest signal of suspending interest rate hike” by the Federal Reserve at the beginning of the year to the meeting of FOMC on March 21, which made it clear beyond expectation that the reduction of the balance sheet would be stopped at the end of September, the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Reserve on May 21 conveyed that in view of the uncertainty of the global economic and financial situation, the Federal Reserve “remained patient” in judging the target range of the future federal fund interest rate, and lowered the excess deposit reserve rate by 5 basis points to 2.35%, the United States The Fed’s attitude towards interest rate cuts is becoming clear. At the June meeting, the Fed’s vote Committee’s view turned to pigeon obviously, and the market’s expectation of interest rate reduction was constantly pushed higher. From the third quarter of 2019, the market focuses on the monetary policies of central banks, and has almost the same expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the third quarter.

On January 4, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December 2019 meeting. The minutes show that in the absence of substantive changes, Fed policymakers agreed to “hold still” for a while, believing that current interest rates might be appropriate for some time. But there are also concerns that inflation continues to fall below 2%. At the same time, Fed members are concerned that keeping benchmark interest rates low could have the effect of encouraging excessive risk-taking in financial markets. If risk-taking makes financial markets unstable, such low interest rates “could make the next recession worse.”. In terms of the Fed’s balance sheet, the minutes revealed that in terms of the repo operation, since mid January, the Fed may gradually reduce the scale of the repo operation, and may need to continue some of the repo operations to at least the tax reporting quarter of April.

In the past 10 election years, the Federal Reserve has adopted policy adjustments, except that it raised interest rates after the November election in 2016. In 2012, the Federal Reserve announced the third round of large-scale asset purchase plan in September, even though it did not adjust the zero benchmark interest rate. The 59th presidential election of the United States will be held in 2020. According to a survey of 29 economists conducted by Bloomberg on December 2-4, 2019, respondents gave up their previous expectations of interest rate cut in 2020. The median forecast indicates that the target range of the federal funds rate is expected to remain at 1.5% – 1.75% by the end of 2021.

The Fed’s inaction in the election year is rare in American history. Some analysts believe that the uncertainties of the US general election, the independence of the Federal Reserve, the economic expectations of the United States, the intensification of the financial bubble, the contradiction between the global economic and trade situation, and the low inflation and high employment pattern of the United States make the Fed’s monetary policy more difficult to predict.

For trade frictions, the market has basically reached an agreement on the expectation that the U.S. launching trade frictions is not a tactic, but a strategy. Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election, the situation of increasing global conflicts will continue in the future. Even if China deals with trade frictions properly and successfully resolves the negative economic impact of trade frictions, which makes it difficult for the U.S. strategy to achieve its expected goal, the U.S. may still push up other forms of conflicts.

Limited policy space, economic pressure in the euro area will continue

Compared with the high resilience of the U.S. economic growth, the economic situation of the euro area is relatively bleak. Since the subprime crisis in 2008, the European debt crisis in 2012 and the deterioration of the global trade environment since 2018 have almost exhausted the monetary policy space of the eurozone. Some analysts believe that the European Central Bank’s interest rate cut lags behind the economic downturn, resulting in the dislocation of economic growth rate and interest rate level in time. In order to maintain the sustained recovery of the economy, interest rate hikes are more cautious and cyclical, resulting in the face of economic pressure, the space of monetary policy in the euro area is decreasing day by day. At present, the euro area has entered the era of “negative interest rate”, but the economy has not seen a significant recovery. For the economic stimulus measures of the euro area in 2020, it can be expected that the policy strength will be more limited.

Britain’s “brexit” has not been effectively resolved, which has also hit the eurozone and the UK economy. At present, 27 EU member states have agreed to postpone the application of brexit until January 31, 2020. However, whether the final brexit is successful or not, this long-standing deadlock has already caused damage to the EU economy, and the economic situation of the UK has been greatly affected, and it is difficult to recover in the short term.

Limited impact of processing fee

Six categories of copper scrap import standard revision of copper scrap tension pattern is expected to ease

From the perspective of the context of China’s copper scrap import policy, in 2019, seven categories of copper scrap import will be completely banned. Since July 1, 2019, six categories of copper scrap will be converted into restricted categories. In 2019, the import policy of copper scrap will still be tightened. Under the tightening effect of the copper scrap policy, the domestic copper scrap import volume has decreased significantly since 2018, among which the copper scrap import volume in 2018 is more than 30% lower than the average level of the previous five years. In 2019, the import of scrap copper continued to decline, with a decline rate of nearly 30%. Especially after the fourth quarter of 2019, the import approval of scrap copper began to decrease significantly. The number of the first batch of import approval in the fourth quarter was only 24% of the number of the first batch of approval in the third quarter. Since then, the number of scrap copper imports approved by the approval has been shrinking rapidly, and the supply of scrap copper has become increasingly tense The import trade of scrap copper is very light.

The processing cost is acceptable in the fourth quarter, and the fluctuation of refined copper production is not big

On November 21, 2019, Jiangxi copper, Tongling, China copper and Freeport determined that the price of TC long order in 2020 is 62 US dollars / ton, a new low since 2012, which is far lower than the processing fee level of 80.8 US dollars / ton in 2019, but basically in line with market expectations. It is believed that the main reason is that China’s new smelting capacity will be put into operation, but the mine output may remain stable, which puts pressure on TC / RCS.

Looking back to 2019, the processing fee has declined from 86 dollars / ton at the beginning of the year to a minimum of 54.5 dollars / ton at the end of August. The sales of by-product sulfuric acid has always plagued domestic smelters. In addition to the planned maintenance in the second quarter, the production of domestic smelters has not been affected too much due to the reduction of processing fee. After the centralized maintenance of smelters, the refined copper production has recovered rapidly. Statistics show that from the perspective of the newly increased production capacity of domestic smelters, the smelters that have basically contributed to the stable production scale, such as Guangxi Nanguo copper, Chifeng Yuntong, humon smelting, Yunnan tin industry, etc., have newly increased production capacity of about 450000 tons, and drive the domestic refined copper production to increase significantly in the second half of 2019 when the processing cost is low.

According to relevant statistical data, smelters such as Chifeng Jinjian and Guorun copper will have new capacity in 2020. However, it is worth noting that the old smelter will be shut down after the 200000 ton capacity of Chifeng Jinjian is put into production. Therefore, the actual new smelter capacity brought by the new production in 2020 is expected to be limited, and the main refined copper production increment will come from the smelter which will be put into production in the later period of 2020 Gradual release of refinery capacity. According to the data, the smelting capacity put into operation later in 2019 mainly includes Zijin Mining (Fujian), Zijin Mining (Qiqihar), Yuguang Gold and lead, etc., with a total increase of about 40 tons in 2020. Therefore, by calculation, the domestic smelter’s production increase in 2020 will be slightly higher than that in 2019.

Although the processing fee in 2020 is significantly lower than that in 2019, considering the factors such as low production cost, resource advantage or regional advantage of major large-scale smelters, it is difficult to see the reduction of smelters’ production due to the low processing fee.

There will be a slight improvement in demand, and the real estate industry deserves attention

On the demand side, Jean Sebastien, Rio Tinto’s chief executive, said that the rise of electric vehicles, the high demand for battery storage, the development of new transmission technology and the demand for other environmental protection energy will promote a substantial increase in copper demand, such as the copper consumption of electric vehicles is twice that of internal combustion engines.

From the perspective of the domestic market, the overall cable consumption in 2019 is poor: the operating rate of the upstream copper pole continued to be weak throughout the year, significantly shrinking compared with the overall operating situation in 2018. In 2019, the completion of infrastructure investment did not have too many highlights: the progress of power supply construction was reversed in 2019, and it began to get rid of negative growth since April; in addition, the completion of power grid investment remained negative growth, and the completion of railway and real estate investment was relatively weak. From the perspective of the real estate industry, although the new housing construction area and construction area maintain a positive growth, the growth rate is lower than that in 2018. The completed housing area began to reverse the negative growth for seven consecutive months in August, and gradually accelerated, and the housing sales situation also showed a positive growth in the same period. Therefore, although the completed housing area increased in the second half of the year, it did not cause a greater inventory pressure The inventory pattern continues.

The overall pattern of air conditioning market in 2019 is similar to that in 2018: under the background of high domestic air conditioning inventory, air conditioning production is not strong. In the second half of 2019, the export of air-conditioners turned from negative to positive year on year, and the inventory of air-conditioners was digested to some extent. Global warming causes frequent “heat waves” in summer in European and American countries, and the export of air conditioning in China has increased seasonally.

Outlook for the future

The macro-economic environment in 2020 is not expected to change much from that in 2019: the US economy is expected to maintain moderate growth with the aid of easy monetary policy in 2019; Global trade conflicts or other new conflicts will continue to deepen; the monetary policy stimulus in the euro area is expected to be limited; the impact of brexit will continue; China’s economy continues to show strong growth resilience, and the stimulus policy is still strong There is room.

Basically, the supply of copper concentrate will be better than that in 2019. The world copper research group expects that the output of copper concentrate will increase by 2% in 2020, the output of refined copper will increase by 4%, and the apparent consumption will increase by 1.7%, resulting in 280000 tons of excess refined copper for the first time after 2010. From the perspective of the domestic market, the import policy of scrap copper is the risk factor of the supply side. In terms of demand, there is a certain possibility of accelerating the copper consumption in real estate, and the demand of air conditioning industry will still increase steadily, but the high inventory will restrain the production strength. After the inventory pressure in the automobile industry eases, the production plan will recover. In conclusion, it is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate in 2020.

On January 3, suleymani, a senior Iranian general, was killed by us air strikes outside Baghdad International Airport. Iran’s top leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, later issued a statement saying that Iran would take “tough revenge” on the incident.

According to Iranian media reported on the 8th, in the early morning of the 8th local time and the early morning of Beijing time, the “US Assad air base” in Anbar province in western Iraq was attacked by rockets. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard has launched “dozens of missiles” at the Assad Air Force Base in Iraq, where the U.S. military is stationed.

Affected by this, most of the domestic commodity futures market open red, energy, chemicals soared. Glycol touched the limit plate, fuel oil rose by more than 7%, asphalt rose by more than 5%, and crude oil rose by 3%.

The sharp rise of glycol not only benefits from the peripheral factors, but also has an inseparable impact on its own fundamentals.

The port arrival volume is lower than the expected price by a small increase

The main reason is that the early market thinks that the probability of ethylene glycol accumulating in the later period is relatively large, but due to the influence of weather and other factors, the port is closed, the shipping date is delayed, the arrival of the wharf is still relatively small as a whole, the market inventory is less than expected, which supports the spot market price and causes a small increase in the recent price. According to market news, as of the 8th, due to the strong wind at the wharf, the north channel of the Yangtze River route is closed, the south channel is limited, and Ningbo and Shanghai terminals are closed.

According to statistics, as of January 6, MEG port inventory in East China’s main port area was about 365000 tons, down 52000 tons from last Thursday, down 12.47%. Among them, Zhangjiagang has 172000 tons, down 8.5% from last Thursday, Taicang has 48000 tons, down 29.41% from last Thursday, Ningbo has 70000 tons, down 17.64% from last Thursday, etc. Compared with the inventory of MEG port in the main port area of East China on January 3, 2019, 785000 tons, a year-on-year decline of 53.5%, nearly half of the inventory has been digested.

Limited market impact of new devices

Recently, new devices such as Rongxin, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli have been successively put into operation, which is basically in the stage of device commissioning, which is difficult to reflect the actual market supply. In terms of specific performance, the commissioning of Hengli petrochemical ethylene glycol has been successfully completed. At present, the unit is shut down waiting for the start-up process of supporting ethylene link; the load of Rongxin MEG unit has been increased to about 50% since the superior products were produced last week; Zhejiang Petrochemical Ethylene has already produced products, and the ethylene glycol commissioning is planned for the first ten days of January. Up to now, the total operating rate of glycol has reached 66.35%, non coal load 63.42% and coal to coal 70.17%. Basically, there is no big change with last week, which is good support for the market, and also the main reason for the high price.

Import volume is the focus of the market in the near future

China is the world’s largest ethylene glycol importer, with an average annual import volume of over 7.5 million tons in the past five years. However, with the rapid development of domestic coal chemical industry, the increase of glycol supply in the market has led to the decline of glycol import in China. According to statistics, from January to October 2019, China imported 8.23 million tons of glycol, down from 8.3 million tons in the same period of 2018. In the first half of 2019, domestic import dependence is still 55.49%.

The import volume of glycol from the Middle East of China has reached 60%, of which Saudi Arabia ranks first. According to the data from January to July 2019, 45% of domestic glycol comes from Saudi Arabia. If the current situation of the United States and Iran is in a negative direction, or has a certain impact on China’s imports from the Middle East, the price will directly respond to the short-term situation. Therefore, we should focus on the continuation of the international situation.

Limited market rebound due to cost drag and poor downstream demand

According to statistics, the current gross profit of coal to glycol market is about – 150 yuan / ton; that of methanol to glycol market is about – 900 yuan / ton; that of ethylene to glycol market is – 50 dollars / ton; that of naphtha to glycol market is – 35 dollars / ton. The cost is still in the state of loss, although slightly better than the previous period, the market mentality may be improved. But there is no substantial improvement in the market. As the Spring Festival approaches, many sets of devices in polyester plant have been planned to join the maintenance team in succession, and the polyester operation rate is also expected to decline, which may weaken the support to the market, but will be more obvious after January 10.

The market lacks significant positive support to guide the strong rise of prices, and the probability of short-term high volatility is relatively large.

On the whole, in the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of port arrival inventory and the situation of the United States and Iran on the export volume of the Middle East and other places.

Foreign media said that on the night of January 8 local time, crude oil prices soared, while U.S. stock index futures fell, after Iran launched several missiles to an air base with U.S. forces in Iraq, raising concerns about the expansion of the Middle East conflict.

Iran’s state television said it was a retaliatory act against the death of Islamic Revolutionary Guard general Sulaimani, the Wall Street Journal reported on its website on January 8. Sulaimani was killed in a recent US air strike.

West Texas Intermediate base crude oil (WTI) for February delivery rose more than 3% on the news of Iran’s attacks, the report said.

Some analysts believe that if tensions in the Middle East intensify, international oil prices may rise for some time. At a time when the outside world is worried about the tension in the Middle East, Iranian foreign minister Zarif said that Iran has taken a proportional self-defense action in accordance with the UN Charter and has ended, and does not seek escalation or war.

According to public opinion, despite the statement made by Iran’s foreign minister, the situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. Against this background, will crude oil prices continue to rise?

Oil price rise or temporary

According to the Japanese economic news website on January 8, as early as the beginning of the year, the international market of crude oil and gold rose together. US crude oil futures rose to a high since April 2019, while gold futures in the New York market hit a new high since April 2013, six years and nine months apart. In addition to tensions in the Middle East, the appreciation of the yen against the US dollar in the foreign exchange market is also driving up crude oil and gold prices denominated in US dollars.

According to the report, the crude oil market in this round has risen since the end of 2019. US crude oil futures (recent contracts) broke the $60 mark on December 13 last year. It is self-evident that it is the tense situation in the Middle East that has not eased the hidden economic worries that pushed up the market at the beginning of the year. With the US killing the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a turning point, the intimidating game between the US and Iran is intensifying. Speculation is being driven by the market’s view that the incident is likely to affect oil supply in the Middle East.

It is difficult to understand that the crude oil market is slow to respond to the attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz in 2019 and the explosion of Saudi oil facilities, but this time it is quick to respond. “Considering the attacks on Saudi Arabia in 2019 and other factors, the market is aware of the unpredictable risks in the Middle East in the future,” said Inoue Chun, chief economist of Mizuho Institute of comprehensive research in Japan

However, the global economic downturn has not changed the situation of crude oil prices rising, according to the report. Even if the situation in the Middle East is tense and the oil price rises temporarily, these will have a negative impact on the economy and the demand for oil will decrease.

Analysts pick more safe haven assets

Public opinion has observed that although Iran’s foreign minister has said that the self-defense action is over, the outside world is still worried about the development of the situation in the Middle East, and analysts have begun to select more risk averse assets. It is expected that the increase of geopolitical uncertainty will push up the share price of U.S. defense enterprises and become one of the risk aversion targets.

Gold has always been seen as a safe haven asset, with spot prices rising more than 3% this year to the highest level since April 2013, according to Taiwan’s Economic Daily website on January 7. Goldman Sachs and Huaqi both forecast gold prices to rise.

According to the report, Credit Suisse analyst tereca believes that as the gold price continues to rise, large gold mining enterprises will give priority to free cash flow and shareholder compensation, with agnico Eagle mining and Newmont mining company of the United States as their first choice. Analysts at Cormark securities suggest considering gold companies with free cash flow potential, such as sentra gold, Coeur mining, Teranga gold and Yamana gold.

Energy analysts are not encouraging investors to rush into small and medium-sized oil stocks, as it is still necessary to confirm whether tensions between the US and Iran are rising further.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market in December was relatively strong, and the spot price in the domestic market recovered. As of December 31, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13000.00 yuan / ton, up 3.45% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industry chain: ABS upstream, styrene prices fell in a narrow range this month. At the end of December, there were ships from the Middle East arriving at the port, and the stocks of styrene port in East China were on the high side. However, the port delivery decline rate is less than expected, which brings supply to styrene supply in the site. It is expected that the arrival of styrene in January will still be large before the middle of the month, and the port inventory is expected to continue to rise. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm for receiving goods in the lower reaches of styrene may increase slightly, and the port delivery speed is expected to decline. Pure benzene is supported by the external market, and the possibility of a sharp drop in price in the short term is small. Although styrene is supported to a certain extent, the high price goods in the market are not well received. Generally speaking, the price of styrene is weak in the near future;

This month, the market of acrylonitrile related products in the spot market is relatively weak. At the beginning of the month, it was reported that the 210000t / a acrylonitrile unit of Anqing Petrochemical Company, which was originally scheduled to restart in mid December, was delayed to restart at the end of the month. There was a phased gap in the supply of raw materials for its contract customers, so it had to use the spot market as a supplement. There was periodic speculation in the market, and traders’ offer rose for a while. However, due to the supply of imported goods coming to Hong Kong, the supply side tended to be balanced, traders’ trading mostly gave way to low profits, and the offer returned to prudence;

In December, the butadiene market was weak and declined. At the beginning of the month, affected by the news of TPC device accident in the United States, the Northeast manufacturer’s suspension of export, Shenhua Ningmei and Nanjing Chengzhi device’s short-term shutdown, the market experienced short-term speculation, but the downstream follow-up was limited. With the restart of export in the first ten days of December, the market continues to decline. In the last ten days of the month, the price of northeast goods is relatively low, which just needs to be followed up in succession to boost the downstream part, and the market situation shows some signs of stabilizing. However, at the end of the month, Zhejiang Petrochemical plant was successfully commissioned, and it was reported that Dalian Hengli plant also had a commissioning plan in January, which will result in a large increase in the supply of butadiene in the medium and long term, affecting the expectation of some businesses. In the short term, the domestic butadiene market is likely to continue to decline slightly. It is suggested to pay attention to market supply and demand and internal and external market information guidance;

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in December, the ABS market volatility has increased, and the spot prices of various brands have rebounded. Cost side of the upstream three expect to rise and fall this month, general support for the cost side. The spot supply is a little tight until the end of the month. The inquiry of downstream factories has been improved to a certain extent, and the procurement is carried out step by step. With the enrichment of spot goods in the field, the mentality of merchants began to turn weak, and the delivery was mainly on the market. It is expected that the domestic ABS market will be dominated by the whole market in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of cost side.

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in China is stable for the time being. As of January 8, the price of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic method is 6262.5 yuan / ton, and the recent price trend of o-phthalic anhydride market is stable. On January 7, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 60.95, down 0.36 points from yesterday, down 49.26% from 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 25.88% from 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In the near future, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable, the price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, the downstream factories maintain rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure still exists, the high-end transaction is blocked, in the near future, the spot supply of manufacturers is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method source is 5900-6100 yuan / ton; in North China, the main quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6100-6300 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are mainly stable, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is mainly on demand, the mentality of observation is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is not changed much, and benzene The price trend of anhydrides is stable temporarily.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6300 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability influence, phthalic anhydride market price trend temporarily stable.

The price of phthalic anhydride, isooctanol, DOP raw materials, DOP enterprises’ operating rate and DOP supply are generally stable. The price of DOP fluctuated and remained stable, the downstream demand of DOP was poor, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm was poor, the downstream PVC price fluctuated and fell, and the PVC industry was off-season. The mainstream quotation of DOP market is about 7200-7500 yuan / ton, and the rising power of DOP in the future market is general, but the upstream ox price fluctuates, the demand of plasticizer industry changes little, and the phthalic anhydride analysts of the business society expect that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will be stable temporarily.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of n-butanol as of January 8 was 5833 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.14% compared with January 4. At present, the reference average price is basically the same as that at the beginning of the month (January 1).

2、 Market analysis

Products: since December 2019, the domestic market of n-butanol has been continuously weak and falling, and the industry’s bearish attitude has been increasing. This weak situation has continued until the beginning of January 2020. On January 2, Shandong’s individual large n-butanol plants once again lowered their offer to attract downstream users to purchase. On that day, the average price of market participation in the offer fell to 5766.67 yuan / ton, and the downstream just needs replenishment, plus the beginning of the month Shandong Dachang plant is affected by heavy pollution weather, the load of the plant is reduced, the market price is good, the sales pressure is relieved, and the market recovery is supported. On June 6, the plant load of Shandong large factory is expected to increase, the low price transaction of n-butanol market is still smooth, downstream users bargain hunting, the supply of low price goods in the market can be reduced, in addition to the continuous increase of raw propylene, the international oil price rises, giving the confidence of the industry to boost, the market atmosphere improves to support the market offer firm, at present, the market offer price has a callback, Luxi Chemical n-butanol reference The quotation is about 5800 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with January 2; the factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is 5800 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with March 3; the factory quotation of Wanhua n-butanol is 5900 yuan / ton in North China, 6200 yuan / ton in East China, up 100 yuan / ton compared with March 3.

Industrial chain: as of January 8, the market price of propylene in Shandong continues to rise. Influenced by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, and on January 7, it began to rise again. Today, the enterprise price is still slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is about 6950-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton. At present, the situation in the Middle East is tense, the international crude oil price is soaring, and rain and snow weather occur in some parts of Shandong Province, which causes certain obstacles to transportation. Although some of the lower reaches are also negative and the profit margin is reduced, the overall supply is tight and the market is stable. It is expected that the market price of propylene will continue to rise in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency, it is expected that the n-butanol market will fluctuate slightly and maintain stable operation in the near future before the Spring Festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R22 in January 7 was 17833.33 yuan / ton, 2.88% higher than the previous day, and the R22 commodity index on January 7 was 107.00, 3 points higher than yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 28.30% higher than 83.40, the lowest point on October 14, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R22 market rose after new year’s day. At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is relatively stable, which is good for refrigerant R22, and the demand for refrigerant at the terminal has not been improved. After the promotion of air conditioning, the inventory is OK, and the downstream just needs to purchase, but there is no large amount. At present, the supply of goods in the market is still tight. According to the data monitoring of Italian society, as of January 7, the quotation was mainly about 17000 yuan / ton – 18500 yuan / ton, and the trend of refrigerant R22 was strong.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products is stable temporarily. In the near future, the factory in the field is in a general situation, and the spot supply in the field is normal. Due to the traditional off-season of upstream product trichloromethane, low purchase intention of downstream market and traders, and insufficient support of demand side, most trichloromethane production enterprises intend to stabilize the price, the market is in a state of game, and it is expected to stabilize in the short term. The refrigerant terminal air conditioner manufacturer starts at a low level and the demand is flat.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on January 6, 2020, among which the top three commodities are hydrogen peroxide (2.95%), phenol (2.93%) and TDI (2.03%). There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are liquid ammonia (- 7.88%), acetone (- 4.08%), lithium carbonate (- 2.70%). The average price of this day was – 0.13%.

3、 Future forecast

Refrigerant analyst of business club thinks: the supply of refrigerant R22 market is still tight, and the price is high. In the short term, the trend of R22 is expected to be stable and upward.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic refrigerant R134a on January 7 was 23333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.72% compared with the previous day, and the R134a commodity index on January 7 was 85.37, up 0.61 points compared with yesterday, down 14.63% compared with the highest point of 100.00 (2019-09-02), and up 2.94% compared with the lowest point of 82.93 on November 12, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: Refrigerant Market R134a after new year’s Day is rising steadily. At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is relatively stable, which is good for refrigerant R134a. In addition, the stock of R134a in the automobile industry begins to return to temperature, and the demand end is also good for refrigerant R134a. At present, the market supply is still tight and the price trend is strong. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of January 7, the price is concentrated at 21500 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products is stable temporarily. In the near future, the factory in the field is in a general situation, and the spot supply in the field is normal. Terminal, air conditioning market purchase and sales two weak, on-site inventory is still OK, insufficient operation, the automotive industry stock back temperature, good refrigerant R134a price.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on January 6, 2020, among which the top three commodities are hydrogen peroxide (2.95%), phenol (2.93%) and TDI (2.03%). There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are liquid ammonia (- 7.88%), acetone (- 4.08%), lithium carbonate (- 2.70%). The average price of this day was – 0.13%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, in the near future, the raw material end and demand end are favorable for refrigerant R134a. In addition, the supply of refrigerant R134a is still tight in the market due to the demand for refrigerant R134a in the automobile industry. It is expected that the price of refrigerant R134a will continue to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of January 7, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several major areas monitored by the data was 18700 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton or 0.36% compared with the end of last month (December 31).

2、 Market analysis

Products: in 2020, the domestic organosilicon market continues to operate stably. Only a few organosilicon DMC manufacturers have slightly reduced the price by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of organosilicon DMC is 18300-19000 yuan / ton, and some low prices are 18100 yuan / ton. As the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, the heat of goods preparation gradually fades, and some middle and lower reaches factories will be shut down for holidays, and the market trading atmosphere will gradually trend It’s flat. Before the Spring Festival, the price of organosilicon is basically stable. The fluctuation is limited. Due to the different inventory of various manufacturers, some manufacturers may slightly reduce their prices. They want to stimulate the growth before the year, but it has little impact on the current organosilicon market as a whole. In January, the number of plant maintenance increased, and the overall operating rate of the market declined. Starting next week, some factories in the middle and lower reaches will be shut down, Until the start of construction after the festival, the current market is running smoothly.

Operation of the unit: the unit in Jiangxi base of Aiken organic silicon is 450000t / A, the unit is in normal operation this week, and the maintenance plan is expected in late January; the production capacity of Xingfa in Hubei is 180000t / A, the unit is currently in the process of shutdown and parallel operation, and it is expected to resume operation in mid January, and the annual production capacity after parallel operation will exceed 300000 t / A; Shandong area: the unit of Luxi Chemical is in stable operation at present; Jinling in Shandong Province is expected to be in the first ten days of January There is a maintenance plan; the production capacity of Dongyue, Shandong Province is 250000 tons / year, and the current operating rate is about 7 floors; Zhejiang Province: Zhejiang Xin’an and Zhejiang Hesheng are currently in normal operation; Tangshan Sanyou has a production capacity of 200000 tons / year, and the maintenance plan is expected in January.

Industry chain: under the cost support of upstream DMC, silicone oil and 107 rubber are still firm and stable in the current market reference quotation, and the turnover in silicone oil market is slightly light. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is weakened, and a small part of the demand for goods preparation makes the turnover of new orders limited. At the same time, the market has always been in conflict with high prices, and the downstream stock is mainly cautious. At present, 107 rubber manufacturers mainly focus on orders in the early stage of delivery, with little inventory pressure in the short term and good overall supply and demand fundamentals. On January 6, the external quotation of methyl silicone oil (conventional viscosity) manufacturers was around 19000-20500 yuan / ton; that of 107 rubber manufacturers was around 19000-20200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of the business club, the market has basically completed the stock before the festival. At present, the market demand is relatively weak, and the factory inventory pressure is relatively small. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price before the festival will not fluctuate much, and the market will remain stable before the Spring Festival.

The spot price of precious metals rose sharply on JAN 6. According to the data of business agency, on January 6, the spot price of domestic gold was 355.23 yuan / g, a daily increase of 2.52% compared with the quotation of 346.50 yuan / G on January 3; the spot price of domestic silver was 4435.67 yuan / kg, a daily increase of 4335.67 yuan / kg compared with the quotation of 3 days. It rose 2.31% in the day.

Today, the demand for precious metals to avoid risks has increased, mainly due to the fermentation of the situation in the Middle East:

1. Trump threatened to strike 52 targets including cultural sites

U.S. air strikes on Baghdad International Airport killed major general suleymani of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard on March 3. Iran said it would retaliate, and U.S. – Iraqi tensions escalated rapidly.

On Thursday local time, trump tweeted a warning to Iran that if Iran strikes any American or US assets, the US military will strike 52 important Iranian locations it has targeted.

“It is war crimes to regard cultural sites as targets,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Zarif said later Friday, condemning the US president’s threat to strike 52 of Iran’s most important targets.

2. Iran announced to suspend the implementation of Iran nuclear agreement: no more restrictions on the number of centrifuges

After the US assassinated Sulaimani, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Holy City Brigade, on the evening of January 5 local time, foreign minister Zarif of Iran sent a message on social media saying that as the fifth and final “remedial” step, there will be no restrictions on the number of centrifuges in accordance with Article 36 of the Iran nuclear agreement.

This step is within the scope of the Iran nuclear agreement, and all five steps are reversible after the effective implementation of equivalent obligations. Iran’s full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency will continue.

Note: in July 2015, Iran reached a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue with the six countries on the Iranian nuclear issue (the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany). Under the agreement, Iran promised to limit its nuclear program and the international community would lift sanctions against Iran. In May 2018, the United States announced to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement and gradually resume the sanctions on Iraq suspended due to the agreement.

3. Iraq demands that the Security Council condemn the U.S. military parliament’s request for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq

On January 5 local time, the Ministry of foreign affairs of Iraq sent a letter to the UN Security Council and the UN Secretary General through the permanent representative of Iraq to the UN. According to the letter, the US air strikes on Iraqi military camps and assassinates Iraqi military leaders and senior friends in Iraqi territory, resulting in the death of muhandis, vice chairman of the people’s Mobilization Committee, several Iraqis and leaders with friendly relations with them, which is a serious violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and a violation of the conditions for US troops to be stationed in Iraq. Iraq calls on the UN Security Council to condemn the bombing and assassination.

On the afternoon of January 5 local time, the Iraqi parliament held a special meeting and reached a resolution on the issue of the US military in Iraq, which includes: the Iraqi government must no longer ask international organizations to help combat extremist organizations; the Iraqi government should strive to end the presence of all foreign forces in Iraqi territory.