Aluminum market trend

On April 16, 2020, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingots was 12016.67 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum returned to 12000.

According to the data of business agency, as of April 16, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 12016.67 yuan / ton, up 4.25% from 11526.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

Cost support

Since the end of March, there have been about 6 domestic enterprises (including the plan) engaged in centralized production reduction and maintenance, affecting the production capacity of 445000 tons / year. Based on the current low price of aluminum ingots, some manufacturers avoid large losses through production reduction, shutdown and maintenance. Meanwhile, some new production capacity is willing to reduce, with a slight delay.

Although the price of upstream raw material alumina has moved down, the cost side support of electrolytic aluminum price is still strong.

Reduction of unsalable inventory caused by the epidemic

Due to the continuous production characteristics of electrolytic aluminum, there is a cumulative inventory difference between this year and the downstream. With the resumption of upstream and downstream production and the solution of transportation problems, downstream aluminum deep processing enterprises have sufficient aluminum water supply, and the orderly resumption of production of aluminum profiles, finished products and other industries, the slow-moving inventory of aluminum ingots is gradually reduced.

Aluminum enterprises adjust product structure flexibly to reduce cost and create efficiency

The decline of aluminum price has a great impact on aluminum enterprises. In the early stage, sales and inventory reduction will further lower the market price. Aluminum enterprises have to take various measures to reduce the purchase cost of raw and auxiliary materials. At the same time, some enterprises flexibly adjust the product structure, such as aluminum nose strips for N95 masks issued by Yunnan Aluminum research and Development Co., Ltd., to help win the prevention and control of the epidemic.

Expected market outlook

According to the historical price trend, the current price is not high and the cost is strongly supported. In the second quarter, the demand is expected to turn warm. It is expected that the near-term rate will be stable and strong.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cocoon and silk market has been declining all the way in the past three months. As of April 16, the average price of the dry cocoon market was 88000 yuan / ton, 29.88% lower than that of January 16, and the average price of the raw silk market was 276500 yuan / ton, 26.85% lower than that of January 16. At present, the price of dry cocoon in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province is 87000 yuan / ton, the price of raw silk is 270000-290000 yuan / ton, the price of dry cocoon in Guangxi Province is 89000 yuan / ton, and the price of raw silk is 279000 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is still cold, there is no market for low-grade raw silk, and there are few transactions for high-grade raw silk.

With the sunny weather, spring cocoons in Guangxi began to be listed one after another. Since last week (around April 10), the first batch of spring cocoons in Xincheng of Guangxi began to be listed in succession in the first half of the year. On April 14, it was learned from some local cocoon purchasing units that the number of local spring cocoons on the market was gradually increasing, and the quality of fresh cocoons on the market was different. The price of factory purchase was based on the quality. At present, the price was basically kept at about 28-30 yuan / kg, which is currently at the peak of cocoon listing, and the local cocoons are continuously on the market 。 At present, the purchase price in Hengxian County, Nanning is about 26-32 yuan / kg, and that in Baise Napo County is between 26-40 yuan / kg. According to the different quality, the purchase price varies greatly, with good quality and high price.

It is learned from some cocoon stations in Hengxian and Xincheng that on April 10, the first batch of spring cocoons in Xincheng silkworm district this year began to appear on the market. Thanks to the warm winter of this year, the listing time was earlier than last year, and the spring cocoon collection and drying work in Guangxi was fully started. According to some local purchasing units, the purchase price is about 30 yuan / kg, down from last year. With the continuous downturn of cocoon silk market, some factories automatically lowered the purchase price of fresh cocoon. As of April 15, Xincheng’s purchase price is about 26-28 yuan / kg. The purchase price of Hengxian County in Guangxi is 25-27 yuan / kg, down 1-5 yuan / kg compared with the previous day.

In addition, Yizhou silkworm district and Liucheng silkworm District of Guangxi, as the main production area of sericulture in Guangxi and even in China, will begin to market spring cocoons around April 25.

In terms of import and export, from January to February, the total import and export volume of China’s real silk goods was US $255 million, down 24.18% year on year, accounting for 0.74% of China’s total import and export volume of textiles and clothing. The export volume was US $225 million, down 24.02% year-on-year. Influenced by public health events, the export of China’s real silk goods fell sharply in February, resulting in a year-on-year drop of 10-30% in the three categories of exports from January to February, of which the decline of silk products was the largest, reaching 30.26%. From January to February, the import value of real silk goods was US $29.513 million, down 25.41% year on year.

There is a serious shortage of orders in the downstream end textile market, and textile enterprises generally face greater operating pressure. Since the resumption of production, the utilization rate of steadily improved production capacity has gradually declined, and some enterprises have begun to reduce the start-up rate in the form of rotation and holidays. At the same time, due to the influence of insufficient demand and declining production and sales, many enterprises have overstocked inventory recently, and the pressure of capital turnover is prominent. Due to the demand for recovery funds or lack of confidence in the market prospect, many enterprises ship goods at low prices, which leads to the decline of silk price transaction price.

Business analysts believe that the traditional “gold, silver and four” demand peak season is difficult to flourish, the terminal enterprises cancel the external orders frequently, the internal single market is also relatively low, and the textile enterprise inventory is rising again. The consumption situation and market confidence have fallen sharply, and it is expected that the construction will be lowered. The demand lacks strong support, and the price of cocoon and silk will continue to weaken in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of maleic anhydride as of April 16 was 6466.67 yuan / ton (including tax), up 19.02% from April 13.

On April 16, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 60.92, up 1.26 points from yesterday, down 50.74% from 123.67 (2017-12-26), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.03% from 51.18, the lowest point on April 14, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: domestic maleic anhydride market price jumped this week. This week, the domestic maleic anhydride inventory is low, and the supply of solid anhydride in the main production area is limited.

Industry chain: the international crude oil fell, the downstream unsaturated resin rose steadily, and the terminal demand eased, but the order was received cautiously, and the purchase was mainly on demand. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of pure benzene has been rising continuously in the near future, and the price of pure benzene was listed at 3000-4000 yuan / ton on the 16th. Recently, the price of hydrogenated benzene continued to rise, and the main quotation range of the East China hydrogenated benzene market was 3400-3500 yuan / ton on the 16th, with an average price of 3450 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane increased with the increase of propylene. The rise of raw material price drives the maleic anhydride market.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analyst of the business association, at present, the maleic anhydride factory is in short supply, the supply of solid anhydrite in the main production area is limited, the downstream cost is mainly due to demand procurement, the impact of foreign epidemic situation, the crude oil price is still low, and the operating rate of maleic anhydride rose in May. The short-term supply side supports the price of maleic anhydride, but the demand is limited, and the maleic anhydride market is expected to have a callback risk in May.

1、 Price trend

Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 7800-8900 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 8700-9700 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

PS market overall demand performance is weak, part of the quotation inertia upward. Some traders are reluctant to sell their products. The demand of downstream factories is flat, and most of them are on-demand purchases.

3、 Future forecast

PS market is affected by the soft downstream demand, and the transaction is light. Some petrochemical enterprises have increased the ex factory price, or can continue to provide support for the future market. Traders are more flexible. PS market is expected to rise slightly.

On April 14, the fluorite commodity index was 104.68, down 0.19 points from yesterday, down 17.89% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 112.72% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite has declined. As of the 15th, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2983.33 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant has increased. The on-site mine and flotation plant have been resumed gradually. The supply of fluorite in the field is sufficient. In the near future, the price of downstream hydrofluoric acid has dropped. For the on-demand purchase of fluorite market, the situation of fluorite on-site delivery is poor, and the price trend of fluorite market has declined. In the near future, the operation rate of downstream units is relatively low, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream of the terminal purchases on demand, resulting in the continuous decline of market price. As of the 15th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3200 yuan / ton.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite fell. As of the 15th, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10590 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant was generally, the demand for fluorite was normal, the supply of goods in the site was sufficient, and the price of fluorite gradually fell. In recent years, the sales of automobile industry has been in a downturn, the market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is poor, the demand for refrigerant has been declining, the domestic R22 supply is sufficient, the domestic market price trend of refrigerant R22 has fallen, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply of goods in the market is normal, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturer stops more, and the demand changes little, in addition to foreign public health affairs The main price of domestic large enterprises is 16000-18000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of fluorite market continues to decline.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is gradually falling, the supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the recent price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is declining. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may be slightly lower in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic chlorinated paraffin in March fell by 2.70% in 52 months. In April, the market tends to be stable. On April 15, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 was 4800 yuan / ton, and the price was stable within the month. On April 15, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin was 71.46, which was the same as yesterday, 34.70% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 11.92% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: after falling in March, the market of chlorinated paraffin tends to be stable. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5000 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3700-4500 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4300-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 3800-4800 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4800-5400 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is about 4600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in March, the price of raw material liquid wax was stable for shipment, the market was stable, and just needed to get the goods. The prices of some regions in the liquid chlorine market are rising, and the prices of many regions are in balance, with no change in demand. Low load operation of downstream enterprises of chlorinated paraffin. Enter the range of raw material market in April. The price of liquid wax was stable in the mainstream and increased in some cases. The price range of liquid chlorine fluctuated, and the future market remained on the sidelines.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 14th week of 2020 (4.6-4.10), there are 28 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 13 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 14.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are pure benzene (21.34%), crude benzene (20.34%) and acetone (15.79%). There are 28 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 5 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 11.31%), butadiene (- 10.19%) and aniline (- 5.63%). This week’s average was up or down 1.05%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association believe that the operating rate of chlorinated paraffin in March is low, the terminal demand is weak, the market supply is greater than the demand, and the market of chlorinated paraffin fluctuates downward. In April, the operating rate increased, terminal demand eased, but it was still not high, and the market remained stable. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will continue to be weak in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of spandex in the domestic market recently bottomed out and rebounded, with an increase of more than 3% in the past seven days, of which the market average price of 40d specification as of April 15 was 32600 yuan / ton, up 3.49% on a weekly basis and down 10.28% on a year-on-year basis. The terminal needs to follow up carefully in all fields, and the supply of conventional products is stable. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang area, the reference for 20d spandex mainstream negotiation is 36000-38000 yuan / ton; the reference for 30d spandex mainstream negotiation is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; the reference for 40d spandex mainstream negotiation is 28000-29000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction details are discussed.

At present, the attention of spandex market coarse denier is still high, the mask wind is strong, the demand for mask earband is still hot, there is a certain speculation atmosphere, the manufacturer coarse denier has a good shipment, the goods are tight and the price is high. Since the Qingming Festival holiday, 70D / 140d goods are hard to find, and the price has increased from 30000 yuan / ton to 32000-35000 yuan / ton. There are also a few manufacturers who do not offer or accept orders temporarily. Up to now, the mainstream price reference of 70D / 140d market is 38000-43000 yuan / ton, the higher price is more heard, and the market price is relatively chaotic. At present, most of the manufacturers have changed production and their production capacity has been improved. Some of them still do not receive new orders. They hand over orders in the early stage and arrange orders in advance until May.

Summary of production and marketing trends of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

Shanxi sanwei 5 parking, no restart plan

Jiaxing Xiaoxing 12 small line parking

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical 9.2 unit load is not high

Shaanxi chemical 4.6 full load operation

Henan Nenghua No.6 parking Center

The load of Xinjiang Meike 5 unit is not high

Low load of 4.6 unit in Tunhe, Lanshan, Xinjiang

The raw material PTMEG market is in a weak position, the factory has a certain shipping pressure, and the focus of actual single negotiation is weak. The main quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source is 15000-15500 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is 14200-15000 yuan / ton. Pure MDI continues to be weak in the low position, and the downstream rigid purchase is the main factor, with limited trading volume and weak investment. The quotation in South China is 13500-14000 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrels, and that in North China is 13500-14000 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrels.

In the lower reaches of Zhejiang Province, enterprises in Xiaoshao region started to work at a low level, with 30-50% starting in the round machine and yarn wrapping Market; in Zhangjiagang region, Jiangsu Province, the market order was insufficient, with 50-60% starting level, and the overall demand in the terminal field was weak. However, the demand for mask earband is good, and the supply is in short supply. The terminal adds a new mask machine, and the demand for spandex 70D / 140d increases. The buyer mainly orders small orders, and some dealers take a large number of goods, so most spandex manufacturers have changed production to 140d, and the production capacity increases.

Overall, at present, in addition to the tight supply of raw spandex, the supply of spandex is basically stable, the demand in the downstream terminal area is light, the demand for masks and earbands is good, and the supply is in short supply. Therefore, in the short term, the price of spandex market remains stable and the market leader is in the upper middle. Business analysts believe that as the attention of crude denier silk weakens and the market speculation enthusiasm cools, the price will gradually return to rationality.

The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on the evening of the 12th that OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries reached an oil production reduction agreement on the same day, with an average daily production reduction of 9.7 million barrels from May 1, the first round of production reduction lasting for two months.

OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries held a ministerial Video Conference on the 12th and reached an agreement. According to the agreement, the production reduction from May to June this year will be 9.7 million barrels per day, 7.7 million barrels per day from July to the end of this year, and 5.8 million barrels per day from January 2021 to April 2022.

In a statement on social media that night, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed barjindo said that the production reduction agreement is the largest and longest lasting and has historical significance. The statement said the agreement is conducive to oil producing countries, consumers and the global economy, and is a victory for international cooperation and multilateralism.

On September 9, OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries reached an initial agreement to reduce production by 10 million barrels per day from May to June this year. A final agreement could not be reached on the same day, as Mexico opposed the production cuts allocated to it. According to the agreement reached on the 12th, Mexico’s production reduction is 100000 barrels per day, rather than the previously proposed 400000 barrels per day.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt fell this week, and the price of asphalt was reported as 2300 yuan / ton, 10.68% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: on April 9, when the international oil price fell and the demand of asphalt market recovered slowly, the price of asphalt market fell sharply this week.

Industry chain: on April 9, the OPEC + special meeting came to an end. Its production reduction amount was lower than the market expectation. The market generally didn’t buy the result, and was boosted by the news of production reduction earlier. The market has digested the benefit ahead of time. From the perspective of demand, at present, the global epidemic is still in the stage of rapid spread. Market experts generally believe that it may last for a long time in the later period. Some institutions predict that the decline of crude oil demand in April will exceed 20 million barrels / day, or even 30 million barrels. As of 15:00 on the 10th, WTI crude oil price was at $23.5/barrel, and WTI crude oil futures fell 10.11% this week.

In terms of asphalt Market: Sinopec and PetroChina’s main refineries suppressed the price of asphalt this week. At the beginning of this week, the crude oil market was favorable and boosted the overall turnover of asphalt market. However, in Northeast China, Liaohe Petrochemical’s Asphalt price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, and in Northwest China, Karamay’s price was reduced by 300 yuan / ton. The regional market price is still dominated by supply. In the case of slow demand recovery, asphalt price It is more difficult to push the price up. On April 9, the international oil price fell sharply, and the sentiment of asphalt market fell into wait-and-see again.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that the output reduction of OPEC + meeting is not as strong as expected, and the demand for crude oil is expected to fall sharply, the crude oil market has no power to act, and the asphalt market has no demand support, and the price of asphalt market is expected to be stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China rose this week. Last Friday (April 3) the sample enterprise price of the business association was 4700.00 yuan / ton, and this Friday (April 10) the sample enterprise price was 5183.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.28%. The price is 37.80% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products:

This week, styrene market prices rebounded steadily and rose sharply. On April 3, East China styrene closed at 4500-4600 yuan / ton, and on April 10, 5200 yuan / ton, up about 600 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On April 3, South China styrene closed at 4500-4550 yuan / ton, and on April 10, 5100 yuan / ton, up by 600 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories. This week continues to be affected by the expectation of crude oil production reduction. Styrene market participants have a bullish expectation for the future. In the week, styrene got rid of the influence of crude oil and supply and demand, and pulled the styrene price up by the rising sentiment. The buying was positive and the overall trading atmosphere was good. With the resumption of downstream mainstream enterprises, the demand for styrene has gradually increased, and the operating rate of domestic styrene plants has remained at 67.05%, up from the previous few weeks. On the port side, the port inventory is slightly lower than last week, but in the short term, it is difficult to break the situation that the supply of styrene exceeds the demand.

Industrial chain:

Crude oil and futures picked up this week, pure benzene stopped falling and rebounded, and ethylene continued to fall. The price of downstream EPS rose sharply this week, PS rose slightly, ABS fell slightly, and the overall operating rate of downstream enterprises rose. Downstream enterprises maintained a high profit and strong demand for styrene.

3、 Future outlook

At present, the situation of oversupply is still in progress, and the production profit is showing a positive trend, which will increase the willingness of domestic styrene factories to raise the operating rate, while the port inventory will still be sufficient next week. Although the downstream demand is strong, it is possible to digest the demand in advance. It is expected that the market rally sentiment of styrene market will fall in the short term, closely following the trend of crude oil.