1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China rose this week. Last Friday (April 3) the sample enterprise price of the business association was 4700.00 yuan / ton, and this Friday (April 10) the sample enterprise price was 5183.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.28%. The price is 37.80% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products:

This week, styrene market prices rebounded steadily and rose sharply. On April 3, East China styrene closed at 4500-4600 yuan / ton, and on April 10, 5200 yuan / ton, up about 600 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On April 3, South China styrene closed at 4500-4550 yuan / ton, and on April 10, 5100 yuan / ton, up by 600 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories. This week continues to be affected by the expectation of crude oil production reduction. Styrene market participants have a bullish expectation for the future. In the week, styrene got rid of the influence of crude oil and supply and demand, and pulled the styrene price up by the rising sentiment. The buying was positive and the overall trading atmosphere was good. With the resumption of downstream mainstream enterprises, the demand for styrene has gradually increased, and the operating rate of domestic styrene plants has remained at 67.05%, up from the previous few weeks. On the port side, the port inventory is slightly lower than last week, but in the short term, it is difficult to break the situation that the supply of styrene exceeds the demand.

Industrial chain:

Crude oil and futures picked up this week, pure benzene stopped falling and rebounded, and ethylene continued to fall. The price of downstream EPS rose sharply this week, PS rose slightly, ABS fell slightly, and the overall operating rate of downstream enterprises rose. Downstream enterprises maintained a high profit and strong demand for styrene.

3、 Future outlook

At present, the situation of oversupply is still in progress, and the production profit is showing a positive trend, which will increase the willingness of domestic styrene factories to raise the operating rate, while the port inventory will still be sufficient next week. Although the downstream demand is strong, it is possible to digest the demand in advance. It is expected that the market rally sentiment of styrene market will fall in the short term, closely following the trend of crude oil.

1、 Price trend

On April 10, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3417 yuan / ton, down 2.38% from last Friday, according to the data of business agency.

On April 9, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 3405 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton or 2.25% from the beginning of the week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of April 9, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1145200 tons, an increase of 24600 tons or 2.20% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 4300 tons or 0.38% compared with this Monday. Inventory is still high, but the rate of accumulation slows down.

In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 5400 tons per day, while Taicang delivered about 1900 tons per day to the two warehouses, which remained at a low level.

At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 59%, which is lower than that of last week. The operating rate of polyester downstream is about 81%, which is slightly higher than that of last week.

In terms of equipment, Xinjiang Tianye has an annual output of 350000 tons of glycol plant, which was shut down for maintenance on April 4, and the restart time has not been determined. Maoming Petrochemical Branch reduces the load of glycol section, reduces losses and increases efficiency.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Affected by the positive trend of crude oil during the Qingming period, the spot and futures prices of glycol have recovered this week. However, with the end of crude oil rally, glycol market expectations gradually fell back.

At present, coal manufacturing enterprises have suffered serious losses, and various units have begun to reduce load and stop work for maintenance to avoid risks. However, due to the continuous supply of imported goods, there is no downward trend in inventory. The downstream operation rate has increased, but due to the impact of the global epidemic, foreign trade orders continue to be cancelled and exports are limited.

In the early morning of April 10, OPEC + meeting reached a framework agreement to reduce production by 10 million barrels / day in the next two months. If crude oil can stop falling and recover in the later period, glycol price is expected to fluctuate upward.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of cryolite this week was weak and stable. The average market price in Henan Province was 5833.33 yuan / ton in the week, which was stable compared with the price at the end of last week, down 9.33% compared with last year. On April 9, the cryolite commodity index was 70.85, the same as yesterday, 30.00% lower than 101.21 (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and 6.78% higher than 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: according to statistics, the price trend of cryolite is stable. As of the 10th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is about 6000-6950 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 4800-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the operation of cryolite manufacturer’s devices is normal, the supply of enterprises is sufficient, and the transaction is fair. This week, the price quoted by the manufacturers is mainly stable, and the enterprises sell according to the order. Affected by the environmental protection policy, the upstream raw materials are in short supply, the downstream users purchase on demand, and the market situation of cryolite is weak and stable.

Industry chain: the upstream fluorite price trend continued to fall this week, with the average domestic market price on Friday at 3000 yuan / ton, down 4.93% in the week. In recent years, the operation rate of fluorite plant in China has increased. The mine and flotation plant in the site have been resumed gradually. The supply of fluorite has increased, the supply of downstream goods is sufficient, and the market price of fluorite has declined. In the downstream aluminum industry, the demand weakened due to the impact of health events and the weak operation of the market. This week, the aluminum price trend fluctuated upward. The average market price at the weekend was 11750 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 1.18% in the week, and the overall price did not change much in the week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association, the market price of cryolite is weak and stable at present. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the manufacturer starts normally, has sufficient inventory, purchases on demand in the downstream, and the manufacturer’s quotation is not adjusted much. In the later stage, the cryolite market may maintain weak and stable operation, with specific attention to market demand.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the spot nickel price rebounded slightly this week, with a weekend quotation of 98033.33 yuan / ton, up 4.44% from 93866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 5.6% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Futures quotations

At the beginning of this week, the main nickel market in Shanghai opened at 93800, and since then, the price is relatively strong. It rose sharply on Friday to close at 97310, up 5.31% on a weekly basis. Lennie closed at $11705 at Friday’s closing, up 4.46% on the week.

Philippines ban escalation

In recent years, the impact of the epidemic on the nickel supply side has increased, and the Philippine ban has been upgraded. The president of the Philippines said that he would like to extend the blockade until April 30. All mining and production processing in the high area of northern Missouri has been suspended since April 1, and nickel miners such as pgmc, TMC and HMC voluntarily suspended their mining and export business in April.

Ferronickel plant is not eager to purchase

At present, the existing nickel ore inventory of domestic mainstream nickel iron plants can still support January to March. Some small and medium-sized nickel iron plants are short of nickel ore raw material inventory. Although most domestic nickel iron plants are in deficit, most nickel iron plants plan to consider the shutdown after fully digesting the nickel ore inventory.

Stainless steel inventory pressure relief

In late March, the stainless steel inventory was digested to some extent, and the current inventory pressure was relieved. However, due to the spread of the global epidemic, the export orders of stainless steel in the overseas market were reduced. At present, the stainless steel market is still in the pattern of oversupply and the price of stainless steel is weak.

3、 Future prospects

Future market forecast: the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is affected by the epidemic. Nickel ore shipments may decline in April, and domestic port inventory of nickel ore continues to decline. Currently, nickel price does not touch the global mainstream cost of nickel (below $10000). It is expected that nickel price will rebound slightly in the short term, but the rebound range may be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business associations, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) rose rapidly in the first ten days of April after a slight fall, which was 5239 yuan / ton on April 1; the ten day high price on April 10, which was 5957 yuan / ton, increased by 13.71%; the ten day low price on April 2, which was 5185 yuan / ton, with a ten day amplitude of 14.90%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: the price of propylene in Shandong Province fell in shock last month, and dropped sharply again at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of more than 15%. On the first day, the price continued to decline by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the second day, it still declined by 50 yuan / ton. On the third day, the price of some enterprises increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. After the Qing Dynasty, the price of propylene increased steadily. On the seventh day, the price of propylene increased by 100 yuan / ton every day. Today, it increased by 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to 5900-6100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 5900 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil market last month repeatedly reported new lows, but the market continued to rise after the sharp fluctuation of the price on February 2. Now, many countries have introduced production reduction policies to improve the crude oil market and increase the propylene price. But on the other hand, the production reduction is not up to the expectation, so the pulling effect of propylene will be weakened.

In this ten day, PP spot rose sharply after stabilizing, with a 10 day increase of 11.45%, and this week’s increase of 14.36%. Polypropylene futures market continued to rise significantly, and there were trading limits, which also had a great positive impact on propylene.

This ten day acrylic acid market fell in shock, falling 6.22% in ten day, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.

In this ten day period, the market of propylene oxide rebounded after the decline, with a ten day drop of 1.72% and a ten day amplitude of 6.03%, eliminating part of the negative impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin was stable in this ten day period, down 1.48%, with little impact on propylene.

In this ten day period, the price of domestic n-butanol rose after a slight decline, with a rise of 3.44% in ten day period and 5.04% in weekly period, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

This ten day octanol market fell after the correction, ten day increase of 0.32%, ten day amplitude of 4.28%, slightly positive impact on propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, continued to rise steadily in April, with an increase of 11.11% in ten days, which still had a great positive impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in Shandong Province fell in this ten day period and then recovered, with a ten day drop of 1.86% and a ten day amplitude of 7.11%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

The acetone market in Shandong Province has recovered continuously after a slight decline in this ten day period, with an increase of 9.32% and an amplitude of 15.79%, which has a significant positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, in a comprehensive view, recently affected by the international crude oil market, the agreement on production reduction was initially reached, although it did not fully achieve the expected effect, it still had a certain pull up effect on propylene. However, PP futures in the lower reaches rose significantly, showing a trend of fluctuation. Most of the other downstream markets are also ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. It is expected that the price of propylene will continue to rise in recent days, but the increase range and time are greatly affected by crude oil.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on April 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market operated in a small fluctuation. Based on several sample areas, the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore at the initial high end was around 330-420 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in April, the domestic phosphate rock market as a whole remained low and stable, and the market was mostly in a state of consolidation. New orders in the market were generally closed, and the on-site construction continued to improve slowly. At present, large-scale mining enterprises in Guizhou and other places offer stable prices. In Guizhou, 28% of the grade phosphate rock plants offer 320-340 yuan / ton; 30% of the grade phosphate rock plants offer 340-370 yuan / ton. Hubei area: 28% ammonium phosphate ore shipboard quotation is about 380-410 yuan / ton; 30% ammonium phosphate ore shipboard quotation is about 430-440 yuan / ton, of which, the factory quotation of 28% phosphate rock in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 390 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of 30% phosphate rock in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 430 yuan / ton. Yunnan area: the quotation of 28% ammonium phosphate ore car plate is about 270-320 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of 29% phosphate ore in Yunnan is about 320 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: since April, the yellow phosphorus market has been in weak and stable operation. After the festival, the market trading has improved. There are many replenishment orders. Some traders have a large number of new orders. The market supply is tight, and the transaction price of new orders is relatively firm. Currently, the net phosphorus ex factory acceptance transaction in Yunnan Province refers to 15800-16200 yuan / ton. Phosphoric acid market weak slightly downward finishing operation, the current market trading situation is general.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, the inquiry of downstream products of phosphate rock has not been significantly improved in recent days. The overall market trend is weak, and it is expected that the market will remain weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Ammonium phosphate rose sharply in the first quarter, ushering in the peak season of the year. According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium phosphate on January 1 was 1906 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium phosphate on March 31 was 2083 yuan / ton. The overall price of powdered monoammonium phosphate rose 9.27% in the first quarter, with the highest increase of 11.89%. The lowest price in the quarter is 1890 yuan / ton, and the highest price is 2133 yuan / ton.

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2200 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on March 31 was 2225 yuan / ton. The overall price of diammonium phosphate rose by 1.14% in the first quarter. The lowest price in the quarter is 2200 yuan / ton, and the highest price is 2225 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate: in January, the market of monoammonium phosphate was weak, and the price fell steadily. The demand side is still weak, and the downstream purchases on demand. The transportation difficulty in many places leads to the increase of freight, and the overall price fluctuates little. In February, the shipment of monoammonium phosphate was large, the transportation gradually recovered, and the downstream procurement was active. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have increased the rate of resumption of work, which has promoted the price of monoammonium phosphate to rise, and the market is oriented well. In March, the price of monoammonium phosphate fell back after a substantial increase, and the rate of enterprises returning to work was 62%. The fertilizer market is in the peak season of sales, the price of raw sulfur keeps rising, and the downstream demand is increasing. In the later stage, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have sufficient stock and weak demand.

Diammonium: in January, the price of diammonium phosphate raw materials was low, the follow-up demand was weak, the price rise was blocked, and the transportation in many places was not smooth. Diammonium phosphate keeps stable operation, and the operating rate of the enterprise is about 50%. In February, diammonium phosphate remained stable without any sign of rising. Downstream traders mainly digested inventory. Market supply is strong and demand is weak, and downstream enthusiasm is poor. In March, the price of diammonium phosphate rose, and Hubei enterprises resumed production successively, with a return rate of 61%. The price tends to be stable after rising. The enterprise’s operating rate keeps rising, the spot supply is sufficient, and the number of new downstream purchase orders decreases.

Industrial chain: raw sulfur rose by 24.50% in the first quarter. In January, the domestic sulfur market was weak, the port inventory was high, the consumption was slow, there was no information guidance in the market, the main thing was to wait and see, and the price was weak and stable. Affected by the environmental protection policy, the downstream demand performance is low. In February, the domestic sulfur market was relatively strong and the domestic price was up, but the downstream construction was low, the port inventory was still high and the consumption was slow, there was no information guidance in the field, and the main thing was to watch carefully. In March, the domestic sulfur market was strong. In the early stage, with the successive resumption of downstream factories and the improvement of road transportation, major production units in various regions have increased their performance to varying degrees.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 23 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector in the first quarter of 2020, including 10 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 11.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (57.44%), ammonium chloride (24.63%) and sulfur (24.50%). There are 59 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 44 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 51.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were pure benzene (- 54.08%), propane (- 47.22%) and crude benzene (- 45.56%). This quarter’s average up or down was – 10.65%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that in the first quarter of spring ploughing season, the peak season of phosphate fertilizer, fertilizer rose together. The price of ammonium phosphate rose because of the sharp rise in raw materials and the strong demand for downstream compound fertilizer. It is expected that the fertilizer market will weaken in the second quarter, and the stable trend of ammonium phosphate market will prevail. It is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market trends.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spandex market rebounded slightly this week, with the market average price of 40d specification at 31900 yuan / ton as of April 9, up 1.27% on a weekly basis and down 11.63% on a year-on-year basis.

Mainstream price statistics of spandex market in recent 7 days (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 36000-37000 34000-35000 28000-29000

Shandong 37000-38000 34500-35500 28500-29500

Fujian 37000-38000 34500-35500 28500-29500

Jiangsu 36000-38000 34000-35000 28000-29000

Domestic spandex manufacturers increased steadily, with sufficient supply. Due to the fair demand for end port cover ear belt, tight supply of rough denier models, the price increased substantially, which led to the increase of other specifications such as 40d. This week, the price of 40d specification of mainstream factories increased by 1000 yuan / ton. However, due to the lack of prudence in follow-up of other actual needs, the market view atmosphere is relatively strong, and the actual single transaction volume is discussed in detail. Among them, 36000-37000 yuan / ton is the reference for mainstream negotiation of 20d spandex in Jiangsu and Zhejiang; 34000-35000 yuan / ton is the reference for mainstream negotiation of 30d spandex; 28000-29000 yuan / ton is the reference for mainstream negotiation of 40d spandex, and the actual transaction details are discussed.

Summary of production and marketing trends of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name address capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

There is no restart plan for the parking of Shanxi 3D Hongdong 5

Jiaxing Xiaoxing Zhejiang Jiaxing 12 small line parking

Hangzhou Sanlong, Zhejiang Hangzhou 6 phase II plant load is not high

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical Ningxia Yinchuan 9.2 unit load is not high

Henan Nenghua Hebi 6 parking Center

The load of Xinjiang MEK Xinjiang Korla 5 unit is not high

The raw material PTMEG market is in weak operation, the atmosphere of real order buying is light, the pressure of supplier’s delivery is increasing, and the negotiation of narrow margin is narrow. At present, the main quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source is 15000-15500 yuan / ton, and the negotiation of real order is 14200-15000 yuan / ton. Pure MDI operates in a weak position and a weak position, buying gas is weak, and the delivery and investment is average. Under the pressure of the supplier’s delivery, the delivery negotiation continues to be low. In South China, the quotation is 13800-14500 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrel, and the quotation is 13800-14500 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrel.

All downstream spandex factories are cautious about raw materials and demand follow-up, and have a strong atmosphere of market outlook, and have a detailed discussion on the actual single transaction. In Xiaoshao area of Zhejiang Province, the construction started at a low level, with 30-50% of the round machine and yarn wrapping Market; in Zhangjiagang area, the market order follow-up was insufficient, with 50-60% of the start-up level; in Fujian area, the market started cautiously, with 30-40% of the lace and about 60% of the warp knitting; in Guangdong, the enterprises started cautiously, with 40-50% of the round machine market.

On the whole, the price trend at the cost end is light and stable, and the support performance is generally good. In the downstream terminal market, the materials used for the ear belt of respirators have led to the rise of some specifications, but in general, the usage of the respirators is not large, the spandex model is 40d / 140d or above, and other textile fields are not in good mood to receive orders, and the actual demand is poor, so all parties should be cautious to see that the market just needs to purchase. Business analysts believe that due to the decline in textile terminal demand, the spandex industry as a whole is expected to bear pressure, and the rebound space will be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China this weekend was 626.67 yuan / ton, down 4.08% compared with 653.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 44.71% compared with last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic sulfur market performance is slightly flat. In terms of external market, the spot supply is tight and the price is on the high side, with limited support in Hong Kong. This week’s sulfur quotation was weak and lowered, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high and the intention price was low, the spring ploughing fertilizer was in the closing stage, the later stage of fertilizer export was not clear, the industry had different judgments on the future market, the site was more wait-and-see mentality, the refineries in each region within the week adjusted their quotation according to their own shipping situation. As of March 3, Sinopec’s quotation for solid sulfur in East China is 580-680 yuan / ton, and that for liquid sulfur is 510-630 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s quotation for solid sulfur in North China is 530-570 yuan / ton, and that for liquid sulfur is 400-450 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s quotation for solid sulfur in Shandong is 630-650 yuan / ton, and that for liquid sulfur is 410-460 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the aspect of downstream sulfuric acid, the domestic market has recovered as a whole, and the sulfuric acid price has risen. At present, the overall supply of sulfuric acid plants in Shandong Province has been reduced, and the prices of enterprises have been adjusted upward. In April, the overhaul of acid enterprises was relatively centralized, the supply side was significantly reduced, and the acid price was intended to drive the market upward. The main downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises have been in the process of completion, and the demand has not been greatly boosted. In addition, the cost end support is still weak, and the upward space of sulfuric acid market is limited. It is expected that the acid market will be operated in a narrow range in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business agency, at present, the demand for phosphate fertilizer is weakening, and the enthusiasm of downstream plants to enter the market is not high. Refineries in various regions are adjusting downward in the week, and the inventory of ports is high. Most of the operators wait and see the market. It is expected that the sulfur market will be light and stable in the later period, waiting for the guidance of market news.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price trend of TDI market this week was stable and down. The average market price in East China at the weekend was 9933.33 yuan / ton, down 3.25% in the week compared with 10266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 33.03% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic TDI market fell. At present, the recovery of demand is not optimistic. Due to the impact of public health events, foreign trade orders are cancelled or postponed in large quantities, TDI factory’s finished product inventory remains high, the downstream production and sales are not smooth, the demand for raw materials is limited, the enthusiasm for inquiry is not high, and the pressure on the manufacturer to ship is high. Under the condition of maintaining the shipping volume, the price keeps falling. By the end of March 3, the quotation of domestic goods with tickets in East China market was 9200-9300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanghai goods with tickets was 9400-9600 yuan / ton. At present, the weak market in North China is waiting for the customers to deliver goods, and the downstream mentality is waiting for the customers to deliver goods. The narrow market in East China is sorting out, and the customers maintain the mentality of shipping volume, and the market continues to explore. The weak market in South China is sorting out, and the market is pessimistic Spread, market price chaos.

Industry chain: in terms of upstream toluene, the global health event, worried about the shrinking demand for crude oil due to the economic recession, combined with the overall sharp decline trend of the international oil price this week before Thursday, affected by this, the domestic toluene price followed the sharp drop, the domestic market price fell sharply this week, as of Friday, the average domestic price was about 3050 yuan / ton, down 11.59% on last week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the business club’s Data Engineer, at present, the on-site operators are short of future market mentality, the downstream demand is weak, the enthusiasm for inquiry is not high, the TDI market price continues to fall under the situation of blocked shipment, and the on-site pessimism spreads. It is expected that in the later stage, the TDI market will be weak to sort out and operate, and pay attention to the factory news.