In June, the acetone market soared rapidly, and then the trading volume of few markets fell sharply. At present, the price in East China fell below 10000 yuan.

Acetone market trend in East China in June

In June, the acetone market rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the national market average price was 8850 yuan / ton in June 1, 12250 yuan / ton in June 10, with an overall increase of 38.14%. As of June 23, the national market price was 10225 yuan / ton, down 16.36% from the middle of the year. Today, the mainstream factories have not dropped 600-1300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream East China region has reported It fell below 10000 yuan for the first time since the downturn. The offers of domestic mainstream factories and regions on the main nodes are shown in the table below. Up to now, the supply and demand averages are negative, and the market may continue to decline. Specifically:

Average price trend of acetone in the national market in June

Quotation of mainstream factories and market in June

First, the import supply increased significantly in the last ten days, and Panasonic acetone could not resist the downward trend. It is understood that since June 10, acetone has been replenished in large quantities to Hong Kong, which are nearly 2000 tons replenished from Taiwan on June 10, 5800 tons replenished from West China on June 14-15, 4000 tons replenished from West China on June 19. It is estimated that 6000 tons of imported acetone will be replenished in East China during the Dragon Boat Festival, and 2000-3000 tons of imported acetone will still be replenished at the end of the month. Therefore, the import of acetone to Hong Kong will increase significantly in the late ten days 。

In terms of domestic plants, in May, Zhongsha Tianjin and Changshu Changchun units were shut down, and the overall operating rate was not adjusted much in June. Some plants were suspended for one week for maintenance, and then resumed production, so the supply of domestic plants was relatively stable. To sum up, in June, the acetone market showed a roller coaster market, and the supply side saw that the import source had a greater impact on it.

Second, the demand side market reported a significant decline or a weak trend to stabilize, and the operating rate of the mainstream terminal factories fell sharply. If all the downstream MIBK plants continue to shut down, the offer price in MIBK market is high and strong, but the transaction in the late market is obviously insufficient. The current offer price in East China is 15000-15800 yuan / ton, which is not optimistic after the cost collapse. MMA’s market trend follows acetone’s trend. After entering the middle of June, the market tends to be stable and then its focus falls. The atmosphere of on-site negotiation is obviously insufficient.

Isopropanol, the most important terminal of the epidemic, is unsalable in the overseas market. The high price has been replaced by other alcohol killing products one after another. The price has declined significantly, and the operating rate of some factories has been reduced due to the reduction of orders in the last ten days.

The downstream BPA market, supported by the cost in the first ten days, was constantly pushed up by the offer, but after the middle of the year, it entered into the state of no market with price, then many profit traders sold at low price, and the actual transaction price of the market continued to be explored. Up to now, the negotiation range of the BPA market in East China is 11700-11900 yuan / ton, with a significant drop compared with that in the middle of the year when it rose to 12800 yuan / ton.

In the view of the business community, the acetone market is supported by the demand of the disinfection market. The price has set a historical record. After the sharp rise, there will be a big drop. The current supply is significantly improved, and the terminal disinfectant Market is not irreplaceable. The high disinfectant is bound to have substitutes. The export orders in the late ten days are obviously reduced, and the market selling phenomenon is increasing. However, the disinfectant Market is still just in demand, and the price is back to normal There is still a market after sex. Under the game of supply and demand, the demand for raw materials is also gradually stable. The business community expects that the acetone market will continue to decline, and the trading volume will increase significantly before the festival. At present, the mainstream market has fallen below 10000 yuan, and the short-term negotiation range in East China is 9600-9900 yuan / ton.

At 9:00 a.m. on June 22, 2020, low sulfur fuel oil futures were officially listed and traded in Shanghai International Energy Trading Center (hereinafter referred to as the previous energy), a subsidiary of Shanghai Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the previous energy). According to the business club, the main contract of low sulfur fuel oil 2101 opened at 2570 yuan / ton on the first day of trading and closed at 2599 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2763 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2570 yuan / ton. From the perspective of the market, the main contract of low sulfur fuel oil 2101 closed higher on the first day of trading, hitting higher and falling back. Daily increase of 24859 positions.

Listing of low sulfur fuel oil futures contracts in line with market demand

As a kind of product oil, fuel oil is a heavy residual product separated from crude oil after gasoline, kerosene and diesel in the process of petroleum processing. The fuel oil is mainly made of the cracking residual oil and straight run residual oil. It is characterized by high viscosity and contains many non hydrocarbon compounds, resins and asphaltenes. Fuel oil is mainly used in oil refining and chemical industry, transportation, construction industry, metallurgy and other industries. At present, boiler oil consumption and power generation oil consumption have been greatly reduced, while the market demand for marine oil has been growing steadily.

According to the decision of the international maritime organization, since January 1, 2020, the sulfur content of marine fuel in the world has decreased from no more than 3.5% to no more than 0.5%. The demand for high sulfur fuel oil has gradually shrunk, and the consumption of low sulfur fuel oil has rapidly increased. However, the international market has not yet formed a pricing benchmark for low sulfur fuel oil. In the past, Singapore’s regular high sulfur fuel oil was still used to price fuel oil, but the liquidity of the spot market for high sulfur fuel oil has gradually decreased, and the fuel oil market urgently needs low sulfur standard.

As a major fuel oil consumption country, China’s fuel oil consumption reached 28.37 million tons in 2019, up 15.5% year on year. In addition, since this year, the domestic demand for low sulfur bonded marine oil has rapidly increased to more than 70%, and the demand for high sulfur marine oil has shrunk to 18%. With the implementation of the fuel oil export tax rebate policy and the issuance of the first 10 million tons of fuel oil export quota, the original traditional mode of “overseas import, domestic bonded sales” will be broken. China may become the world’s largest producer of low sulfur fuel oil. Therefore, the listing of low sulfur fuel oil futures contracts meets the market demand.

Short term low sulfur fuel price is difficult to rise

From the perspective of futures contract trading participation, high sulfur fuel oil still occupies a place in the domestic fuel oil market, which can be seen from the positions of two fuel oil. According to the business association, as of the end of the draft, the positions of the main fuel futures contracts of the previous period were 533324 in 2009, while the positions of the main fuel futures contracts of the international energy exchange 2101 were 24859. However, due to the impact of IMO’s low sulfur policy for marine fuel oil, the demand for high sulfur fuel oil will further shrink in the later period, and the demand for low sulfur fuel oil will continue to rise.

Although the demand for low sulfur fuel oil is increasing due to the impact of IMO’s low sulfur policy for ship fuel oil, on the one hand, the crude oil price is still at a mid low level near $40 / barrel, and the later trend of crude oil is uncertain due to geopolitical and demand changes; on the other hand, there are worries about the second outbreak of the global new crown epidemic, which casts a shadow on the future market of low sulfur fuel oil; and the spot price of low sulfur fuel oil has become large in the near future The trend is going higher. From the perspective of market mentality, it is possible to go higher and fall back later. According to the monitoring of business agency, the spot market of low sulfur bonded fuel oil in China started to rise all the way from mid May, with the price rising from 219 US dollars / ton on May 18 to 299 US dollars / ton on June 22, up 36.23%. On the whole, it is difficult for the price of low sulfur fuel to rise sharply in the near future.

As of June 22, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 13983.33 yuan / ton, up 3.66% compared with the average market price of 13490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (June 1).

Last week, Chinalco’s foreign quotations in various regions have exceeded 14000 yuan / ton. In the near future, the rise in spot price to futures has begun to narrow.

Reduction of aluminum ingot spot supply

Some domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has not fully recovered since the reduction of production since late March, and some other enterprises have increased the supply of aluminum water, reducing the spot supply of aluminum ingots.

Poor export

In May 2020, China exported 382900 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%. From January to may, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 2.012 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%..

Future forecast

At present, the supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic market have been effectively improved, social inventory has continued to move down, the current price has risen, partially easing the pressure of domestic high-cost aluminum ingot manufacturers, the domestic demand is expected to turn warm in the second quarter, and in the later period, it is likely to maintain stability and strong operation. Business analysts predict that in June, it will be mainly in the first-line shock operation of 14000 yuan / ton.

Later focus:

Real estate completion cycle and policy support for wire and cable industry

1、 Trend analysis

On June 22, nickel price fell slightly, spot nickel price was 102750 yuan / ton, down 0.47% compared with 103233.33 yuan / ton of the previous trading day, down 9.66% compared with the beginning of the year, up 3.67% year on year. Shanghai nickel opened at 104190 yuan, followed by downward price pressure, closing at 101860 yuan, down 2.25%. LME3 nickel closed 0.39% lower at $12680 at the end of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Fitch, a research institution, said that demand for nickel ore and metal nickel is expected to be affected by the epidemic this year, but global nickel ore production is expected to shrink by nearly 20% this year. Nickel prices rose at the beginning of the week due to supply shortage. Then, the latest data from the world Bureau of metal statistics showed that the apparent demand of the global nickel market in the first four months of this year fell by 31400 tons year on year, during which the global nickel market oversupplied 14400 tons, Upward pressure on nickel price. In addition, the low consumption of domestic new energy vehicles has reduced the demand for nickel since this year, and the transaction volume in the downstream market has declined.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: weak supply and demand, coupled with the off-season demand in June, nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term.

On June 22, the domestic PTA spot market price was 3685 yuan / ton, down 0.29% from the previous day, down 38.30% year on year. PTA main futures (2009) also declined to close at 3710, down 16% or 0.43% from the previous trading day.

The raw material market is good for PTA market mentality. On June 19, crude oil market fluctuated and climbed. The settlement price of main contracts of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $39.75/barrel, up $0.91 compared with the previous trading day. The settlement price of main contracts of Brent crude oil futures was $42.19, up $0.68. PX was boosted by this, closing at $557 / T FOB South Korea and $577 / T CFR China in Asia, up $22 / T from the previous day.

Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit

Yangzi Petrochemical 65 plans to overhaul by the end of June 2020

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 9, 60, restart to be determined

220 stop at night on May 19, start heating and restart on June 18, but no material has been discharged so far

Shanghai Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 18, and was restarted on the afternoon of June 19, but it has not been discharged so far

Tianjin Petrochemical 34 shut down for maintenance on April 17 and restart to be determined

Luoyang Petrochemical 32.5 April 19-july 22, 2019 shutdown for maintenance

Pengwei Petrochemical 90 stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Fuhaichuang 450 took off and landed negative alkali washing on June 8, and the load increased on June 12

However, the current PTA social inventory is close to 4 million tons, which is still at a high level. In terms of plant, with the 2.2 million ton plant of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. starting to heat up and restart on the 18th, the 400000 ton plant of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was re fed on the 21st. Meanwhile, the new 2.5 million ton plant of Hengli at the end of the month is expected to be put into operation, and PTA market supply will increase periodically, which is not conducive to inventory digestion. In addition, PTA processing fee is still close to 700 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer is still in a good profit state, which does not exclude the possibility of postponement of factory maintenance plan.

The production and marketing of downstream polyester market is flat, and the current operating rate is close to 85%. On June 20, Shenghong 250000 tons of polyester was put into production for discharging, Yisheng Hainan 500000 tons of qualified products new device load was close to 50%, and Anhui Jinzhai new fiber 120000 tons of staple fiber plan was restarted. With the discharging and restarting, the operating rate will be improved to some extent. However, the off-season atmosphere of the terminal textile and weaving market has gradually deepened, and it is even more difficult when it is in the off-season of a special year. Most of the weaving enterprises have started to significantly reduce the start-up rate, and the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has again slightly dropped to below 63%. In terms of price, the market of various products in polyester filament market showed a slight downward trend, of which the decline of polyester FDY on the 22nd day was 1.69%, and the quotation of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6150-6450 yuan / ton.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that crude oil is still in the period of production reduction, and PX has a strong trend in the near future, which is supported by PTA driven by cost. However, in the near future, the restart of its own devices and the production of new capacity are expected to be bad for the market. At the same time, at the end of textile consumption level, domestic demand is reduced, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough in export sales. In the future, there is a lack of further improvement power. It is expected that PTA prices will weaken and be more likely to be adjusted.

On June 19, crude benzene commodity index was 45.26, down 2.19 points from yesterday, 65.67% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 48.20% from 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

From June 15 to 19, 2020, the weekly crude benzene Market in Japan recovered. The factory price in North China was 3101.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 2890 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 6.82% on a weekly basis.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in June 2020

Price adjustment amount after date increase unit: yuan / ton

June 5 3600 + 100 yuan / ton

June 10 3700 + 100 yuan / ton

June 15, 3600-100 yuan / ton

June 19, 3550-50 yuan / ton

This week, the price of crude benzene in China was basically adjusted back to the level at the beginning of the month. This week, Sinopec North China lowered the price of pure benzene twice in a row, with a cumulative reduction of 150 yuan / ton. Now, the price is 3550 yuan / ton. The external market of pure benzene also continued to decline this week, which affected the overall mentality of crude benzene market. In addition, after the price of crude benzene was increased on November 11, the cost pressure of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises increased, and the crude resistance to high prices was heavy, the market mentality was poor, the bearish atmosphere was strong, and the receiving situation was not good. Crude benzene fundamentals bear pressure. On Thursday, the bidding price of crude benzene in Shandong Province was 2885 yuan / ton, 215 yuan / ton lower than last week.

This week’s coking enterprises started work better than last week. The crude benzene supply is relatively stable, and the overall inventory is on the high side. The cost pressure of downstream hydrobenzene enterprises has increased in the near future. With the decline of comprehensive starting level of downstream styrene and other products, the demand for hydrobenzene is weak, and the price of hydrobenzene is down this week. As of Friday, the price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province was about 3350-3450 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from last week.

The business community in the aftermarket thinks that the cost pressure of the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises is relatively large, the demand is weak, the crude benzene fundamentals are under pressure, and the bearish sentiment in the field is relatively strong, and it is expected that the price in the aftermarket will still be slightly lower.

1、 Price trend

Isopropanol prices fell this week, according to commodity data monitoring. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 13766.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was 13200 yuan / ton, and the price fell within the week by 4.12%.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic isopropanol prices fell this week. In June, the market price of raw acetone remained high, and the price of isopropanol remained high. In the international market, isopropanol in the U.S. continued to decline, while isopropanol in Europe ended to decline. The demand of overseas disinfectant market gradually sought for more substitutes, and the overseas orders decreased. As a result, the operating rate of isopropanol plants fell, and the price decreased. Up to now, about 12000-13300 yuan / ton of isopropanol negotiation area in Shandong Province and 12700-13500 yuan / ton of isopropanol negotiation area in Jiangsu Province in China. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 13400-13600 yuan / ton. Recently, export orders decreased, and isopropanol benefits slowed down.

In terms of raw acetone, the upstream market price of acetone is rising. After a short decline in East China this week, many terminals just need to be replenished. At present, the port arrival volume is still small, and the domestic factory supply is limited. The market negotiation pushed up 200 yuan / ton to 10500-10700 yuan / ton. For isopropanol, the cost pressure is large, and some manufacturers have stopped production and maintenance.

In terms of raw propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene in China was 6604.55 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 6875.55 yuan / ton. The price was increased by 4.1% in the week. At present, propylene manufacturers are in good condition of delivery, no inventory pressure. The profit of propylene isopropanol is still very considerable. Due to the decrease of foreign trade orders, the price will be reduced accordingly.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: the price of raw acetone is high and the cost is under pressure. In terms of demand, the favorable foreign trade slowed down, export orders were significantly reduced, domestic trade enquiries were more frequent, wait-and-see was the main thing, and taking goods was very cautious. At present, isopropanol plant in acetone process is under pressure, and the manufacturers have been overhauling successively. The profit of isopropanol produced by propylene method is large, and the price can be lowered. On the whole, in the short term, the price of isopropanol is likely to continue to decline, and follow-up attention will be paid to the change of news.

On June 19, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.14% from 85.54, the lowest point on June 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

The data shows that the overall market of Polyacrylamide in May shows a downward trend; compared with the market at the end of May, the market of polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million) stopped falling and stabilized in the first and middle of June. On June 1, 2020, the market mainstream quotation is about 14000 yuan / ton, and on June 19, the market mainstream quotation is about 14020 yuan / ton, with a correction rate of 0.14%, basically in a stable state.

First, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to June 2020, the domestic market price first fell sharply, and then continued to callback to a certain extent. From the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month quotation went up by 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half was about 8000 yuan / ton. From June to now, after several small rebounds, it is currently stable at about 8550 yuan / ton. Downstream demand: since 2020, polyacrylamide manufacturers have always reflected that business is difficult to do, cooperation projects of downstream construction enterprises have been reduced, and the survival of water treatment engineering enterprises is difficult. At present, the local situation of epidemic situation is again severe, and the manufacturers do not dare to expect better market.

Secondly, from the perspective of manufacturer’s production. It is found that one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, Henan Province, has normal production and high inventory. The price of the main product specifications rebounded slightly in the second half of the month, and the basic stability is maintained: the price of cation and molecular weight 12 million is 14000-15000 yuan / ton; the price of anion and molecular weight 10 million is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, the price of molecular weight 12 million is 8800-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of molecular weight 14 million solid particles is reported Price: 9400-10000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 16 million solid particles: 9800-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18 million solid particles: 10400-11000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18-20 million powder: 12000-12500 yuan / ton, non-ionic: 12000-13000 yuan / ton, and some specifications: 300-400 yuan / ton. Restricted by the weak downstream demand and the huge sales pressure of manufacturers, the company said that there is not much profit at the current price.

Third, from the perspective of industry. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production area stopped production and delayed resumption of work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area gradually returned to work. In March, the logistics returned to normal, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the raw material cost was partially reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in the high inventory of the manufacturer. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery charge, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there was a lot of inventory; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask” industrial chain relationship, the capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which more directly led to the firmness of acrylonitrile price. From June to now, the price of acrylonitrile has rebounded, but the range is relatively small. According to the introduction of the manufacturer, whether or not the raw materials are hoarded has different impact on the production cost. From the perspective of the whole industry, the poor demand is the fatal injury of the market.

As for the future market, the analysis of the business community shows that the price of the upstream raw material acrylonitrile has been slightly increased since June, while the downstream demand side has been stagnant, the enterprise has a large shipping pressure and a small profit margin. In the future, the impact of the epidemic on the market is a factor that the market is relatively worried about, and the industry is afraid of encountering an even worse situation. At present, the price may fluctuate slightly, but the market has not improved greatly.

In the past week, the domestic spandex market remained stable, with the average price of 40d specification as of June 18 being 31600 yuan / ton, down 4.24% year on year.

Mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 35000-36000 34000-35000 28500-29500

Shandong 36000-37000 34500-35500 29000-29500

Fujian 37000-38000 34500-35500 28500-31000

Jiangsu 35000-36000 34000-35000 29500-32000

At present, the supply of spandex factory is stable, and 80% of the industry starts to operate at a high level. The cost side support performance is average, the downstream terminal market just needs to be cautious in taking goods, and the overall market demand follow-up is average. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang area, the reference for mainstream negotiation of 20d spandex is 35000-36000 yuan / ton; the reference for mainstream negotiation of 30d spandex is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; the reference for mainstream negotiation of 40d spandex is 28500-29500 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction details are discussed.

Summary of production and marketing trends of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

Shanxi sanwei 5 parking, no restart plan

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical 9.2 unit load is not high

Henan Nenghua No.6 parking Center

The load of Xinjiang Meike 5 unit is not high

Low load of 4.6 unit in Tunhe, Lanshan, Xinjiang

In recent years, domestic PTMEG market trend is still weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is slightly light. In terms of price, the main quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods is 14000-15000 yuan / ton, and the actual price is 13800-14500 yuan / ton. In terms of devices, there is no restart plan for Shanxi sanwei’s 50000 ton / a device. In addition, in the process of Henan energy chemical’s 60000 ton / a device shutdown, 50% of the overall industry starts to operate with caution. The pure MDI market is relatively stable, and the shippers keep the stable delivery. The market quotation is 14000-14500 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer in barrels. The listing price of pure MDI of Wanhua chemical in June was 16500 yuan / ton, an increase of 700 yuan / ton compared with that in May. The downstream slowly digests raw materials, just needs to enter the market, and the supply support is acceptable. The shippers keep stable in the delivery, and about 40% of the construction starts, maintaining a low level.

In the lower reaches of Zhejiang Province, Xiaoshao region started to operate at a normal level, with 40-60% starting level in the round machine and yarn wrapping Market; in Zhangjiagang region, the enterprise order follow-up was average, with about 60% starting level in the yarn wrapping market. Changshu’s downstream circular machine market starts at a low level, with an overall starting level of 30-40%; Fujian’s market starts generally, with lace at 30-40% and warp knitting at about 5-60%; Guangdong’s downstream orders follow up generally, with circular machine and warp knitting market starting at 5-70%. From the perspective of the terminal market, the order increment in the domestic market is not obvious, the situation in the foreign trade market is not clear, the demand follow-up is cautious, and the overall market maintains rigid procurement.

In terms of exports, textile and clothing exports improved in May on a month on month basis, among which textile exports were in good condition and clothing remained in a downturn for the time being. According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of customs, in May 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports reached US $29.554 billion, an increase of 38.36% month on month and 24.02% year on year. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 20.648 billion US dollars, up 77.34% year on year; the export value of clothing (including clothing and accessories) was 8.905 billion US dollars, down 26.93% year on year.

Business analysts believe that the current spandex market maintains stable operation, manufacturers maintain normal start-up, coupled with early inventory backlog, the overall market supply is abundant. Although actively shipping, but the downstream terminal customer demand follow-up is not obvious, most of them are still sporadic small orders, just need to take the goods, the wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong. As the textile off-season atmosphere is gradually strong, and the supporting role of the superimposed cost end is not strong, it is expected that the spandex market will be light and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 18, the average price of the mainstream manufacturers of salicylic acid (industrial grade) was 14666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the month, with the maximum amplitude of 6.52% in the cycle, and the recent market was stable.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the market of salicylic acid was stable without any disturbance. In the second quarter, phenol at the end of raw materials kept rising, with a large fluctuation, while salicylic acid rose by a small margin of 2.33% only after May Day, and then the market remained stable. As the main demand end of salicylic acid is export, the recovery of foreign economy is slow, India extends the blockade time, and the export orders of salicylic acid are sharply reduced compared with the previous years, so although there is strong support on the cost end, the demand follow-up is insufficient, and the production enterprises are seeking stability in large quantities, and they wait and see the market. In June, the fluctuation of raw materials was not big, the salicylic acid was still stable, while the export was improved, but it did not meet the expectation. There were not many large orders. Some enterprises reduced the load production, and the inventory pressure was not big. With the order production, the demand was waiting for release.

As of June 18, the industrial price of chemical salicylic acid in Maoyuan, Zhenjiang is about 15000 yuan / ton, the pharmaceutical price is 24000 yuan / ton, and the sublimation price is 22000 yuan / ton. The industrial price of salicylic acid is about 14000 yuan / ton, the pharmaceutical price is 29000 yuan / ton, and the sublimation price is 20000 yuan / ton. The industrial price of salicylic acid in Shandong Longxin pharmaceutical industry is about 15500 yuan / ton, the factory price of pharmaceutical grade is about 25300 yuan / ton, the factory price of sublimation grade is about 18300 yuan / ton, and the factory price of methyl salicylate is about 24300 yuan / ton.

Upstream, from the cost point of view, the overall upward trend of phenol is temporarily stopped. On June 17, East China market reported a narrow upward trend with an offer of 7400-7450 yuan / ton. At present, there is a small amount of volume in North China, but the overall supply pressure is not great, terminal inquiries are increasing, just need to be followed up, and the actual single transaction situation still needs attention. According to the business community, although phenol is still in a downward trend and acetone is temporarily high and stable, the overall cost of raw materials is still strong, but the terminal is not optimistic and the downstream just needs to be purchased.

3、 Future forecast

According to the salicylic acid analyst of the business agency, there are not many changes in the cost end in the near future. The rising trend is temporarily stopped, the delivery of salicylic acid is improved, some enterprises are operating at full load, and the sales pressure is reduced. It is expected that the market of salicylic acid will remain stable in the short term, and the future market needs to pay attention to the export situation.