On the 29th, the average domestic spot price of gold was 397.78 yuan / g, up 0.21% from 396.95 yuan / G on the 24th, and 16.13% higher than that at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On the 29th, the domestic spot price of silver was 4291.33 yuan / kg, down 0.01% from 4191.67 yuan / kg on the 24th, and was 2.54% lower than that at the beginning of the year (01.01).

The current price of precious metal gold is around 400 yuan / g, which is relatively high. Affected by the epidemic situation, the actual demand for gold is relatively low, but the investment demand is surging. The resistance level of 400 is relatively strong. In the later stage, we will wait and see the interest rate policies of central banks, US dollar liquidity, inflation expectations and changes in the epidemic situation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 28, the market reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore was 386 yuan / ton, basically the same as that of a week ago; compared with the price half a month ago (15 days), the average price decreased by 7 yuan / ton, or 1.69%.

Weak and stable operation of China’s phosphorus ore market in the past half month after the mid month quotation reduction

On June 16, some mining enterprises in Guizhou Province lowered their phosphate ore prices, mainly due to the fact that some mining enterprises were unable to meet the downstream demand, poor market transactions and other factors, in order to stimulate the shipment and sales. After that, the domestic phosphorus ore market has basically operated in a weak and stable way up to now, with no major changes in the market, and the overall shipment in the off-season market is still slow. At present, the inventory is large, and the downstream demand is general. As of the 28th day, Hubei Province: 28% of the mainstream phosphate rock quotation is around 360 yuan / ton, 30% of the mainstream phosphate rock quotation is around 400 yuan / ton; Sichuan Province: 28% of the phosphate rock County delivery price is around 270 yuan / ton, 29% of the phosphate rock County delivery price is around 330 yuan / ton; Yunnan Province: 28% of the grade phosphate rock car plate quotation is around 275 yuan / ton; Guizhou Province: 30% The reference quotation for the main flow car plate of grade phosphorus ore is around 320-330 yuan / ton, and the low-end quotation is around 300 yuan / ton.

Attached are prices of phosphate rock in some parts of the country this week (data for reference only unit: yuan / ton)

Regional product grade June 22 June 28 up and down remarks

Guizhou phosphate rock 30% 330 yuan 330 yuan 0 car plate price

Guizhou phosphate rock 29% 310 yuan 310 yuan 0 car plate price

Yunnan phosphate rock 28%, 300 yuan, 300 yuan, 0 vehicle plate price

Sichuan phosphate rock 28% 300 yuan 300 yuan 0 County delivery price

Hubei phosphate rock 28% 360 yuan 360 yuan 0 mainstream boat plate quotation

Downstream, since the beginning of this month, China’s yellow phosphorus market price has continued to decline, with limited support for phosphate rock. At present, the yellow phosphorus market starts to improve slightly, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. At present, the yellow phosphorus Market in Yunnan Province is light, with a market quotation of about 14000-14300 yuan / ton. The market is not good and the price is seriously depressed, and many yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer. Guizhou yellow phosphorus market is dominated by low-level operation, and the current mainstream quotation is about 14300 yuan / ton. The downstream demand market is general, and manufacturers mainly adopt enough on demand. The yellow phosphorus Market in Sichuan is light and stable, and the current quotation in Sichuan is about 15000-14200 yuan / ton. Downstream manufacturers who take it with them, on-site spot sales in general.

According to analysts of phosphate ore of business association, at present, the overall market of phosphate rock and its direct downstream market is weak, with weak downstream demand and insufficient support. It is expected that in the near future, most of the phosphate rock will operate in a weak way, and the market price will not be reduced in a narrow range in some areas.

Commodity index: on June 28, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 95.27, down 0.68 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 12.60% from the highest point of 109.01 on August 28, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

The data shows that polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) shows an overall fluctuating downward trend from April to June 2020, with a reduction rate of about 7%; the domestic mainstream quotation this month is very small, with a flat trend. The price fluctuation range of various specifications is roughly as follows: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content 10%-12%, tax included quotation 260-300 yuan / ton, generally reduced by 50 yuan / ton; solid and alumina content 20-21%, quotation 850 yuan / ton, part of manufacturers also reduced by 50 yuan / ton; content 24%, quotation 1100-1200 yuan / ton; content 26%, quotation 1280-1400 yuan / ton; solid and alumina content ≥ 28%, quotation 1550 yuan / ton; spray The quotation for fog content ≥ 30% is 1650 yuan / ton; the quotation for drinking water level, content ≥ 28% is 1750 yuan / ton, and the quotation for food level is about 2800 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, in the upstream products of polyaluminium chloride, the main factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China decreased slightly in June, 333 yuan / ton on June 1, 310 yuan / ton on June 28, a decrease of 5.94%. The actual transaction price of the manufacturer shall be subject to negotiation. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream white carbon black market is gradually falling, which has a negative impact on hydrochloric acid, while the downstream ammonium chloride market is high in consolidation, which has a certain support for the price of hydrochloric acid. In the first half of the month, the hydrochloric acid market as a whole seemed to rise slightly at the beginning of the month, and then fell slightly in the middle of the month, with a small range. The difficulty of shipment is still a major problem. In the second half of the month, there was a small reduction, with an overall decrease of about 20 yuan / ton this month. Downstream: according to the manufacturer’s introduction, the market of polyaluminium chloride in 2020 is certainly much worse than that in 2019. The current market is not warm and hot, and the manufacturer dare not have extravagant hopes for the later market change.

As far as the whole industry is concerned, from 2020 to now, during the Spring Festival holiday to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area have stopped production and delayed to return to work; after February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area have resumed production in succession; in March, the logistics has gradually recovered, and the transportation cost has returned to normal; in April, the overall production is normal, due to the difficulty of delivery, some enterprises still have high inventory, and the production is affected; in May, polyaluminium chloride The overall demand hasn’t recovered, the market situation is poor, the delivery is general, and the transaction continues to be weak; in June, it’s more than half, the raw materials have not changed much, the natural gas used for drying rebounded about 1 percentage point from the bottom this month, and the impact on the market is not great, the downstream demand is still general, the situation of the industry has not changed much, the overall market situation of the industry is poor, and polyaluminium is difficult to survive alone.

As for the future market, the analysis of the business community shows that in June, the price of raw materials in the upstream went down slightly, while the demand in the downstream did not change much. The price of polyaluminium chloride of some manufacturers was reduced by 50-100 yuan / ton, and the quotation of some manufacturers changed little. For the future market, the market will remain flat, it is difficult to have a big market.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in June, the price of PTA spot market in China showed an upward trend of “m” shocks. Under the favorable support of cost, in the face of the weakness of high inventory and terminal traditional off-season demand, the increase narrowed compared with May. As of June 28, the market average price was 3661 yuan / ton, up 3.02% from the beginning of the month, down 42.48% year-on-year.

As can be seen from the figure above, the recent stronger cost has boosted PTA market. Crude oil is still in the production reduction cycle, and the price continues to fluctuate and climb. On June 24, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $38.01/barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures was $40.31/barrel. The international oil price fluctuated strongly, and the incidents of routine and unscheduled maintenance and production reduction of PX devices in Asia were concentrated. PX bottomed out and rebounded under this boost. As of June 24, the closing prices in Asia were 556 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 576 US dollars / ton CFR in China. The domestic PX prices were 4300 yuan / ton, up 4.88% from the beginning of the month, down 38.57% year on year.

Recent changes in PX units in Asia

Enterprise name: operation trend of production capacity (10000 t / a) device

South Korea SK 130 plans to stop for six weeks in the middle and late June

South Korea GS 40 2 planned to be overhauled from June 27 to July 7

Thailand PTT 77 2 delayed to July for 17 days

Hanhua chemical 70 1 has been restarted

Taiwan FCFC 87 3 restart time delayed

Two sets of JX 82 in Japan started maintenance in the first ten days of May, and it is planned to restart in the first ten days of July

India ompl 90 unplanned stop in April, restart to be determined

Routine maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical 65 from June 19 to July 5

Sinopec 160 plans to maintain for 40 days in October

Overhaul of Tianjin Petrochemical from April 30 to July 5

Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. stopped for 6 months on January 16.

Sinochem Hongrun 80 restart in parking to be determined

Fuhua industry and Trade Co., Ltd. 80 2 times, restart in parking to be determined

From the perspective of PTA supply, 2.2 million tons of unexpected shutdown of Hanbang petrochemical and 4.5 million tons of short-term negative load reduction of Fuhai, and PTA operation rate fell to 83% in early June. However, with Sichuan energy investment’s 1 million ton PTA plant restarted after the short-term shutdown at the beginning of the month, especially the 400000 tons of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and 2.2 million tons of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. at the end of the month, and the 350000 tons of Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. started to restart and heat up one after another, the current PTA starting load has increased to more than 92%. In early July, Ningbo Yisheng planned a short stop of 2.2 million tons. In addition, Jialong petrochemical, Pengwei petrochemical, Liwan polyester, Tianjin Petrochemical and Hanbang Petrochemical are still in the stop phase, and the restart time is to be determined.

Recent changes of PTA plant in China

Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit

Ningbo Yisheng 220 plans to have a short maintenance period of 2-3 days in early July 2020

Yangzi Petrochemical 35 to restart on June 22, 2020

65. Maintenance planned by the end of June 2020

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 9, 60, restart to be determined

220 stop at night on May 19, warm up and restart on June 18, discharge on June 22

Shanghai Petrochemical entered into maintenance on May 18, failed to restart on the afternoon of June 19, re feeding on June 21 and discharging on June 22

Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Chuanneng Chemical Co., Ltd. operates at 70% of the load after a short shutdown on June 1, and now operates at full load

Fuhaichuang 450 took off and landed negative alkali washing on June 8, and the load increased on June 12

Jialong Petrochemical 60 will stop for maintenance from February 21 to March 5, 2019; it will stop for maintenance on August 2, with the restart time to be determined

In terms of inventory, affected by the shutdown of two major factories in June, PTA market was in a state of slight de stocking of 3.75 million tons, down from last month, but increased by nearly 2.5 million tons compared with the same period of last year, still at a high level, which is not enough to reverse the industrial pattern of supply and demand surplus of PTA in the medium and long term, and the current situation of high inventory is difficult to resolve.

The production and sales of polyester in the downstream market are flat, and the current operating rate is close to 85%. Tianjin Petrochemical’s 200000 ton polyester plant and xinfengming’s 250000 ton polyester plant are planned to restart, Anhui Jinzhai Xinlun’s 120000 ton staple fiber plan is put into production, and Yizheng Chemical fiber’s 200000 ton new staple fiber plan is planned to put into production. Therefore, it is expected that the polyester operation will be improved in July. However, the off-season atmosphere of the terminal textile and weaving market has gradually deepened, which is even more difficult when it is in the off-season of a special year. Most of the weaving enterprises have started to significantly reduce the start-up rate, and the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has again slightly dropped to below 61%. In terms of price, after the middle of each product market, polyester filament market has declined in varying degrees, including polyester staple fiber monthly decline of 9.91%.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business club, believes that although the cost support is enhanced, there is an expectation that Hengli Petrochemical will put in new capacity at the supply end of PTA itself. In addition, multiple units will be restarted at the end of the month. At the same time, the terminal demand is off-season, and the weaving enterprises are planning to reduce the load and take a vacation. The demand is also expected to be difficult to form a greater boost. Once again, they turn to the accumulation warehouse to weaken the PTA market price, and the PTA price focus is expected to move down in July.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the average price of TDI market in East China on the 24th was 11133.33 yuan / ton, up 1.21% month on month. The TDI commodity index on June 24 was 58.91, unchanged from yesterday, down 76.25% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.08% from 52.56, the lowest point on May 5, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

On March 23, the domestic market continued to decline, with a significant decline in the market. Dealers continued to explore the offer, and the downstream mentality tended to be cautious. There was little heard about the on-site trading. At present, the market in East China continued to weaken, with the downstream mainly digesting inventory, the transaction was not smooth, and the market fell indefinitely. By the end of 24 days, the quotation of domestic goods with bills in East China is 10100-10400 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 10600-10800 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the toluene price was adjusted downward, the industry inventory was on the high side, the demand was weak, a small amount of on-site replenishment was just needed, the early inventory was mainly digested as a whole, the market transaction atmosphere was weak, considering the impact of the global economic recession on the crude oil demand, it is expected that the domestic toluene market will be stable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency: at present, the domestic TDI market is generally weak, with the downstream mainly digesting the inventory, the willingness to prepare goods before the festival is cold, and the market is empty. It is expected that the weakness of domestic TDI market will be sorted out in the later period, and the operation of the plant after the festival will be watched.

The domestic ethanol market continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic ethanol market on June 15 was 5762 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic ethanol on June 25 was 5925 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.82% in 10 days, breaking the long calm situation. The price rose 3.04% month on month and 10.34% year on year.

Affected by the high turnover rate and high premium rate of four consecutive auctions of temporary storage corn, the current corn spot market continues to maintain a stable, moderate and strong situation, thus the corn ethanol market price continues to rise. The ethanol market in various regions has increased to varying degrees. The inventory status in some regions and the operation rate of enterprises’ devices are relatively low, which will still pull the market up to a certain extent in the future.

Logistics: the current freight fluctuation is not big. This week, the freight between Daqing in Heilongjiang Province and Zibo in Shandong Province is 280-310 yuan / ton. Anhui Nanchang 250 yuan / ton (floating up and down). Henan Sichuan 500 yuan / ton. Henan Guangdong 460-520 yuan / ton (floating up and down). Guangxi Qinzhou Guangdong Dongguan 220 yuan / ton (with fluctuation).

In terms of raw materials, corn: the fifth auction of temporary storage corn was held on June 24. As of 15:00 p.m. on that day, the price of this round of auction dropped, and the premium range also decreased, with a transaction rate of 100%. This auction is not only temporary for grain storage auction, but also 1.9 million tons of China grain storage. The supply has increased. Impact on the ethanol industry: the price of raw material corn fell, but the range was not large. The cost of ethanol production enterprises remained high. In the short term, the cost was high, the inventory was low, and the ethanol market remained high.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market for ethyl acetate rose sharply. The raw material ethanol rose sharply, which supported the cost of ethyl acetate, and ethyl acetate itself had no profit space, so the production enterprises followed the raw material range passively. For the lower reaches of the Dragon Boat Festival, there is a small amount of stock up, which is good for supporting both in cost and demand.

In the future, the price of raw materials will continue to be high in the short term, supported by less supply. The inventory of large factories in Northeast China will remain low with more orders. The price of enterprise quotation will remain high in the short term. In July, there will be a round inspection of large factories, and the price will remain strong in the short term. Business alcohol analysts expect domestic ethanol market prices to remain high in the short term.

In June, the phenol Market, supported by various favorable factors, soared rapidly. Taking the offer of the market in East China as an example, the market rose from 6750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8100 yuan / ton on the 9th, with an increase of 20% on the 9th.

First, the supply side was tight, and the operating rate of domestic phenol and ketone enterprises fell to 70%. At that time, under the maintenance of factories in North China, the supply volume was reduced. According to the plan, the supply side in North China was tight. In addition, the inventory of Jiangyin port was low, and the inventory of Hengyang and West China was less than 20000 tons. The attitude of the cargo supplier was very clear, and the low price was not available, which pushed up continuously for several days. Second, affected by the overall upward trend of the industrial chain, for example, acetone, a joint product of phenol, has increased by up to 200% as of the first ten days of June, setting a historical record, which has driven the products in the upstream and downstream industrial chains to rise sharply. Third, the cost surface support effectively overlaps the continuous rise of main downstream terminals. In the first ten days of June, the upstream of phenol rose as a whole, with pure benzene up 2.22% and propylene up 3.16%. On the downstream demand side, the main terminal bisphenol a market was quoted at 8800 yuan / ton on May 5, 12450 yuan / ton on June 9. After the May Day holiday, the bisphenol a market rose 41.48% in total, and 11017 yuan / ton on June 1. In the first ten days of June, it continued to rise, up 13% in nine days.

Up and down of phenol upstream and downstream on June 1-9

After the middle of June, the phenol quickly recovered after the rapid increase. The reason is that most factories in the downstream are weak as a whole, which obviously contradicts the high price. The low price tray holders often make profits and ship goods frequently, and the market quickly declines. Although the limited supply of factories and the general supply of imported goods are common, and the market supply pressure is not great, it is not easy to explore the rise again after the fall of phenol Market, mainly because the overall downturn of downstream terminals makes it difficult to significantly improve demand, the market trading is cold, and offers are few, and the phenol Market is in a dilemma under the market situation of weak supply and demand.

In late June, phenol market fell into a weak and weak downturn. The operation rate of phenol plants in China has been reduced again in a narrow range, with the overall operation rate of 60-70%. Among them, Changshu Changchun and Tianjin Zhongsha continue to park, Yangzhou Shiyou’s operation rate has been reduced in a narrow range of about 6-70%. It is expected that the short-term shutdown and maintenance will be carried out in the early next month, and Huizhou Zhongxin in South China will resume the restart last week. In terms of ports, there was a small amount of replenishment in late June. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Hengyang replenished about 5000 tons, and Huaxi replenished more than 2000 tons. The port inventory was relatively reasonable, not high or low, and the supply side was under little pressure. Although the supply side is relatively reasonable, in the psychological state of buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm of the intermediate traders is not high, and the situation of the terminal factory is not optimistic. The factory purchases more on demand, with a small amount of inventory, and many mainstream end users are hard to say good because of the downward industrial chain, constantly reducing the operating rate, only selling the enterprise’s inventory. In the middle and late June, the demand in the downstream is poor Next, the market keeps falling.

From the perspective of the business community, near the end of the month, the expected amount of factory maintenance increases, the operating rate is at a low state, the supply of port goods is generally replenished, and the pressure of port storage is not great, so the supply side is relatively reasonable. However, the demand side is sluggish and hard to change. There are few replenishments in the market before the festival, and few market transactions. The market may continue to maintain this trend at the end of the month after the festival. There is not much supply in the hands of the goods holders, and there is little room for the market to go down again. However, in the case of sluggish demand for the terminals and no intentional participation of the intermediate traders, the market cannot be improved. The business community expects that the supply side will not be good and the demand side will not be good The overall downturn, in the situation of two weak supply, phenol short-term ups and downs dilemma, the market price of phenol in East China may be 7000 yuan / ton, the national market offer space is 7000-7300 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA6 in June was positive, and the spot price of most brands rose. As of June 22, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 12233.33 yuan / ton, up 5.76% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

The price of caprolactam upstream of PA6 rose sharply in May due to less supply, and continued to rise in June due to tight supply. According to the data in the bulk list of the business agency, the average ex factory price of caprolactam on June 1 was 9916 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price on June 22 was 10466.67 yuan / ton. At present, the price is 5.55% higher than that at the beginning of the month. In addition, crude oil and outer plate have strong support for pure benzene, and the price difference between the inner and outer plate has narrowed, and the market bottom has strengthened. It is expected that caprolactam market will continue to push up in the future.

PA6 market by the upstream caprolactam strong support and continued to rise, the current high price operation. In the third week of June, the performance was average, the offer of merchants was deadlocked, and the delivery situation declined. At present, the domestic operation rate is acceptable. Although the increasing demand for overseas plasticizing consumption is good for domestic enterprises to destock, the order follow-up of downstream factories is slow in the near future, and the reaction to high price goods is general, mainly on the cheap. Even on the 22nd, the nearby merchants’ offer was loose, and the trading situation was normal.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the third week of June, the domestic PA6 market price is relatively high, and the spot prices of different brands are generally stable. Upstream caprolactam inventory is low, supply is still tight, strong support for PA6 cost end. The demand of downstream slicers weakened, and the bargain hunting strategy was dominant. PA6 trading volume declined, and some businesses began to yield profits. PA6 market is expected to remain weak in the near future due to weaker demand.

According to statistics of business agency, as of June 23, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu Province reported 16000 yuan / ton, up 133 yuan / ton, up 0.88%, down 10.61% year-on-year; POY of nylon was 13600 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton, up 0.59%, down 11.69% year-on-year; FDY of nylon was 16750 yuan / ton, stable, down 16.67% year-on-year.

As of June 22, WTI crude oil was up 12.23% from the beginning of June. In terms of crude oil, crude oil continued to rise against the background that OPEC + decided to extend the production reduction agreement to the end of July. However, due to concerns about the epidemic and negative production reduction in some countries, crude oil failed to stabilize at $40, falling to around $36 / barrel at one time in the middle of the month. According to the latest forecast issued by Bank of America, the price of WTI crude oil will rise to 39.7 USD / barrel from 32 USD / barrel in 2020. Crude oil stopped falling and rose in shock.

 
Crude oil market support is acceptable, and cyclohexanone quotation is basically stable, with some slightly reduced. In June, there was a short-term increase in chemical fiber orders. The supply and demand of cyclohexanone plants were relatively balanced, and a large number of downstream purchases led to the increase of cyclohexanone prices. Although caprolactam due to tight spot supply, prices rose sharply. However, for the cyclohexanone market, the trading volume decreased, the increase was less than that of caprolactam, and the market was passive. Recently, there was a price drop to promote the trading volume.

The inventory of upstream caprolactam is low in the early stage, which strongly supports the cost end of PA6, but the downstream orders are slowly digested and the purchase of raw materials is slowed down. Due to the firm price of raw materials, the price of nylon manufacturers has been tested again. The price of nylon POY (86d / 24F) is 13000-14000 yuan / ton, the price range of nylon FDY (40d / 12F) is 16400-17000 yuan / ton, and that of nylon DTY (70D / 24F) is 15500-16800 yuan / ton. In the past two weeks, the external quotation has been basically stable. Some of the price adjustment strategies of the manufacturers have been put in place in one step, and some of them have been running on thin water for a long time.

Business analysts believe that caprolactam and PA6 rose after maintaining high performance. Generally, the market price of nylon is determined by the cost end. With the gradual recovery of caprolactam supply, the raw material end also shows signs of loosening. It is expected that the nylon filament will slightly fall back in July.

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of June 23, the average price of the market quotation of organosilicon DMC in the mainstream areas of the data monitoring was around 17200 yuan / ton. Compared with that of June 19, the price dropped 300 yuan / ton, or 1.71% of the increase. Compared with that of June 1, the average price rose 1667 yuan / ton, or 10.73% of the increase. During the period, the maximum amplitude of organosilicon DMC was 12.66%.

Since June, China’s Silicone Market has been on a good way, with a maximum increase of 12.66%

In the first week of June, the inventory pressure of most monomer plants is relatively small, the enterprises mainly focus on contract orders, and the quotation is firm. The mentality of buying up and not buying down in the downstream appears to need to improve, and the market focus of silicone DMC is steadily rising. On June 5, the average ex factory reference price of organosilicon DMC was 16166 yuan / ton, up 630 yuan / ton in the week, up 4.08%.

In the second week, the market of organosilicon DMC continued to rise, and many factories began to reduce the negative and pull up the market. Some monomer factories converted organosilicon DMC to self use, and the available supply continued to decrease, and the factory’s offer continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on June 12, the average ex factory price of organosilicon DMC has increased to 17033 yuan / ton, 430 yuan / ton in a week, or 4.50%. Compared with June 1, it rose 1500 yuan / ton, up 9.66% in two weeks.

In the third week, the rise of organosilicon DMC slowed down, up 1.55% in the week. At the beginning of the week (15th), the market as a whole was stable and strong, and the spot supply was still tight. On 18th, some factories continued to increase the factory quotation of organosilicon DMC by 200-300 yuan / ton. By the end of 19 days, the factory price of organosilicon DMC was 17500 yuan / ton.

At present, more than 20 days after the continuous increase of organosilicon DMC, the market was mixed with ups and downs on the 22nd and 23rd, and the quotation of organosilicon DMC of some factories was lowered by 200-400 yuan / ton, until the low-end quotation of organosilicon fell to 16800 yuan / ton. The fluctuation of market situation led to the aggravation of downstream wait-and-see mood. It was heard that the actual transaction price of some factories had been loosened on Friday. However, at present, the inventory of organosilicon DMC is still low, and the pressure on supply is not great. Therefore, most of the manufacturers’ quotations are still firm. The quotations of a small number of manufacturers continue to increase by 200 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotations reach 18000 yuan / ton. At present, the main factory price reference of organosilicon DMC is around 17000-17800 yuan / ton. According to some organosilicon DMC data monitored by the business agency, on the 23rd, the factory price reference of organosilicon DMC is 17200 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton lower than that on the 19th of last weekend, down 1.71%; compared with that on the 1st of June, the average price is 1667 yuan / ton higher, up 10.73%, during which the maximum amplitude of organosilicon DMC is 12 .66%。

It is understood that the following are the factory prices of major enterprises in the near future and the commencement of the plant (for reference only)

Name of enterprise: total production capacity, price and operation of silicone

Elkem spark organic silicon 400000t / a 17800 yuan / T unit starts 80%

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd. 340000 tons / year, 16800 yuan / ton, normal operation

Zhejiang Hesheng 150000 T / a 17500 yuan / t normal operation

Shandong Jinling 150000 T / a 17500 yuan / T plant shutdown maintenance

Stable operation of 80000 T / a 17000 yuan / T unit in Luxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd

Hubei Xingfa 320000 tons / year 17500 yuan / ton three sets of fully opened

Inner Mongolia Hengye cheng240000 yuan / ton 17700 yuan / ton restart

Upstream, in June, affected by the wet season, the supply of silicon metal increased, and the price of silicon metal 441 in this month was greatly affected by the supply and demand. After the increase in supply, downstream demand failed to move up synchronously, and the price of silicon metal fell this month.

At the supply end, as the southwest region gradually enters the wet season, silicon enterprises open more furnaces. In the direction of Yunnan, the starting load of Baoshan and Lincang silicon plants increases; in the direction of Sichuan, the enthusiasm of silicon plants to open furnaces increases greatly; in the direction of Xinjiang, the production problems caused by the shortage of silica and the factors of power supply equipment are basically solved. With the increase of the operating rate of two large factories in Xinjiang and the smooth operation of medium-sized enterprises in Ili and other places, the capacity will be released or more fully in June.

The operating rate of silicon enterprises has increased, the inventory of enterprises has increased, and the supply of metal silicon has increased. However, the demand of downstream consumers has not increased at the same time, and the overall bargaining power of silicon enterprises has shifted down.

On the one hand, the export market is still weak in June, with a small amount of rigid procurement as the main demand; on the other hand, the downstream demand in the domestic market is relatively picking up, because of the doubt about the terminal demand and the expectation of raw materials is short, the raw materials procurement is more cautious, mainly on demand, and the raw materials inventory is low.

So far, as of June 22, the price range of metal silicon in Tianjin port area is 10700-10800 yuan / ton; that in Shanghai area is 11000-11200 yuan / ton; that in Fujian area is 10100-10300 yuan / ton; that in Sichuan area is 10300-10400 yuan / ton; that in Huangpu port area is 10600-10700 yuan / ton; that in Kunming area is 10100-10300 yuan / ton 41 the price range of silicon metal is 10200-10400 yuan / ton. According to the data of business agency, on June 22, the average domestic market price of silicon metal (441 × 3) was 10588 yuan / ton, down 462 yuan / ton, or 4.45%, compared with 11050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On the whole, at present, the market of organosilicon DMC is fluctuating and the wait-and-see is increasing. However, most of the manufacturers’ offers are still firm. In addition, the inventory is still low under the improvement of demand, and the supply pressure of the manufacturers is relatively small. Therefore, it is expected that the market of organosilicon DMC will remain high in the short term. During this period, it is not excluded that some factories with lower prices will raise the quotation of organosilicon DMC again, so as to drive the market The market is up again. Of course, due to the current increase in market demand, it is expected that the start-up of single plant units will increase in succession. With the increase in supply, if the demand fails to improve in time, the price of organosilicon DMC may be reduced. The future market trend is closely related to the supply and demand relationship.