Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP rose in June, maintaining stability and slowing down the growth of DOP market. As of June 18, the price of DOP in East China was 7233.33 yuan / ton, up 3.58% from 6983.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the price of DOP rose slowly in June.

Cost factor

From the trend chart of raw material phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride rose in June and remained stable. DOP raw material prices rise, DOP costs rise, DOP has the power to rise, phthalic anhydride market maintains stability, DOP market rising power weakens.

From the trend chart of octanol price, we can see that the price of DOP raw material octanol rose sharply in June. DOP raw material prices rise, DOP costs rise, DOP rising momentum.

Industrial chain factors

From the price trend chart of PVC, we can see that the price of PVC rose in June and remained stable. The demand of DOP is mainly rigid demand, PVC market is stable, which is insufficient to support the rise of DOP.

Market overview and future expectation

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the price of raw materials phthalic anhydride and octanol of plasticizer DOP rose in June, which was good for DOP market and had a strong driving force. In the near future, the price of phthalic anhydride has been fluctuating and stable, the growth rate of raw material price has slowed down, the downstream PVC market has been stable, the demand for DOP is rigid and the support for DOP is insufficient. In June, the growth rate of the upstream and downstream market of DOP industrial chain slowed down, the impetus for DOP to rise was limited, and the price of DOP rose slightly. In the future, DOP still has the momentum to rise. DOP market is strong and stable, or slightly rising.

According to statistics, in 2020, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene dropped significantly. The average price at the beginning of the year was 6900 yuan / ton, the average price in June was 4100 yuan / ton, and the half year drop was 40.58%. From the price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest point of domestic PX price appeared at the beginning of the year, the highest price was 6900 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in May, and the lowest price was 4000 yuan / ton. In May, PX market price made history new low point.

Domestic PX products are petrochemical products with high external dependence. According to data statistics in 2019, PX external dependence is as high as 45%. External price is an important factor affecting the domestic market price of p-xylene. In the first half of 2020, the external price trend of PX is as follows:

It can be seen from the trend chart of PX domestic price and external market price that the PX market price dropped sharply in the first half of 2020, almost showing a unilateral downward trend, with a drop of 40.58% in the first half of 2020, mainly due to the joint influence of domestic and international.

From the perspective of PX itself, in 2020, the domestic PX operation rate will be about 70%, Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical’s 600000 ton new unit will be put into operation, Yangzi Petrochemical’s unit will operate stably, Fuhai Chuang’s unit will start a line, Pengzhou Petrochemical’s unit will operate stably, Yangzi Petrochemical’s PX unit will operate normally, Jinling Petrochemical’s unit will operate stably, Qingdao Lidong’s unit will operate at full load, Qilu Petrochemical’s unit will operate stably, and Urumqi Petrochemical’s unit will operate stably About 50% of petrochemical plants in lumuqi have been started, Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, and domestic p-xylene supply is sufficient. However, due to the impact of domestic public health events in the first quarter of 2020, the domestic textile industry is almost closed, domestic enterprises have started relatively low, and the PX Market price keeps falling. In the later period, domestic production resumed gradually, but Europe and the United States were affected, domestic exports were hit, and PX products still fell sharply. It can be clearly seen from the trend chart of the external price that the external price has declined sharply, and the closing price in Asia has declined from 840 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the year to about 500 US dollars / ton in June. The sharp decline of the external price is a huge negative impact on the domestic xylene market.

The price of upstream raw crude oil and mixed xylene is also the influencing factor of domestic market price trend of p-xylene. According to the inspection of business agency, the price trend of crude oil market in the first half of 2020 dropped sharply, the price of crude oil at the beginning of the year was 61.68 USD / barrel, the price of crude oil as of June 17 was 38.38 USD / barrel, and the decline in the first half of 2020 was 37.78%. The price of crude oil dropped sharply for PX market The formation of a larger negative. At the same time, the price of upstream mixed xylene also fell sharply. From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price of mixed xylene fell by as much as 33.39% in the first half of the year. The upstream raw materials fell sharply, leaving the domestic market of p-xylene empty, and the domestic price fell sharply.

97% of PX in China is used for PTA production. Comparing the price trend of px-pta in 2020, it is obvious that the price trend of PX and PTA in the whole year is quite similar. The market price of PX and PTA in China has declined. However, with the impact of the collapse of international crude oil price, the market price of PX and PTA has declined significantly. In the first half of 2020, the market of textile industry is in a weak state. Domestic textile enterprises are greatly impacted. The domestic textile industry demand is poor, and the domestic PX market price is greatly affected.

There are two production processes for PX, one is naphtha as the main raw material, the other is MX as the main raw material. In 2020, the market of producing PX with naphtha as raw material is acceptable, but the production of PX with MX as raw material is in a loss stage. The profit trend of production and supply from MX is as follows:

As can be seen clearly from the figure, mx-px production process will almost lose 50 US dollars / ton in 2020, and the negative profit will become the new normal in 2020. The domestic market of p-xylene will not improve, and the market price of PX will drop sharply in 2020.

In the future, the price of crude oil has increased recently, but the economy of Europe and the United States is still limited to some extent. In addition, with the end of the sales peak season of the textile industry, Chen Ling, an analyst of PX business agency, believes that with the gradual increase of PX self-sufficiency rate, the domestic import volume will be greatly reduced, and the domestic supply and demand will be improved. However, the overall supply of PX in Asia has been surplus, and PX export countries such as Japan and South Korea are under great pressure It is very likely that the profit will be sold to China and the price will be compared with domestic enterprises. However, PX production loss will remain high. Therefore, PX will remain weak in the second half of 2020. PX’s low profit and even loss will become the norm. It is difficult for the domestic market price of p-xylene to rise sharply.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 17, the domestic PTA spot market price was 3685 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from the previous day, down 34.49% year on year. In the futures market, main futures (2009) rose slightly to close at 3712, up 32% or 0.87% from the previous trading day.

Crude oil market price rose. On June 16, the settlement price of WTI crude oil main contract in the United States was $38.38/barrel, up $1.26, while Brent crude oil main contract was $40.96, up $1.24. Positive factors such as higher US stocks and record month on month rise in US retail data in may reflect more signs of recovery in the US economy, and a good expectation of OPEC + production reduction. With PX’s help, the closing price of Asia on the 16th was 527 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 547 US dollars / ton CFR China, up 27 US dollars / ton from the previous day. The price of PX in China is maintained at 4100 yuan / ton. In terms of plant, the 650000 ton / year PX plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance on June 19 and is expected to last until July 5.

Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit

Yangzi Petrochemical 65 plans to overhaul by the end of June 2020

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 9, 60, restart to be determined

220 stop at night on May 19 and restart in late June

Shanghai Petrochemical entered into maintenance on May 18, and planned to restart on June 19

Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined

Luoyang Petrochemical 32.5 April 19-july 22, 2019 shutdown for maintenance

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Fuhaichuang 450 takes off and lands negative alkali washing on June 8, and plans to resume

In terms of PTA plant, the current operating rate is maintained at 87%, and the 3 × 650000t / a PTA plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Company is in normal operation, and the maintenance is planned at the end of June. Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million ton PTA plant load is increased, Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical’s 400000 ton plant is planned to be restarted on June 19, later, Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton plant is planned to be restarted in late June, Pengwei Petrochemical’s PTA plant is planned to be restarted in July, and the supply side will be pressurized. In addition, the domestic social inventory reached around 3.55 million tons, close to 90000 tons compared with that at the end of May, but it is still at a high level. In addition, Hengli 5 × unit is expected to be put into operation in late June, and the short-term PTA accumulation situation is hard to change.

In the downstream polyester market, the 8th PET production unit of Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was put into operation on June 12, with an increase in PTA demand. The current starting load is around 86%. At present, various varieties of polyester are still differentiated. In addition to staple fiber and bottle chips, the market of main products filament is still poor. After two short-term production and sales peaks since May, polyester market once again enters the situation of accumulation. At the same time, as the textile and clothing consumption off-season in June, the end inventory has not been effectively digested, and the purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. Compared with the same period of last year, with the characteristics of off-season becoming more and more obvious, polyester load continues to rise under greater pressure, and there is a possibility of lowering in July. The price is stable, among which the price of polyester 150D / 48F from mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 5700-5900 yuan / ton. In addition, the weaving load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is stable at 63.40%, but it is still at a low level year on year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that in the short term, crude oil rebound and PX rise are good for PTA market mentality. However, due to the fall of oil price in the early stage, which benefits PTA production link, PTA processing fee keeps rising from March to April, and the recent increase of PX is far weaker than that of the upstream market, so that PTA production profit remains at a good level of 700-800 yuan / ton. The early maintenance device will speed up the resumption of production, which makes it possible for the factory with maintenance plan to postpone, further increasing PTA supply pressure. At the same time, facing the traditional off-season of summer textile, the demand for external orders is still variable, the terminal demand is uncertain, the purchase intention of downstream manufacturers is not high, the market continues to be weak, and the overall transaction atmosphere remains light, which is not conducive to the digestion of PTA inventory. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, PTA continues to rebound the lack of power, the later callback probability is larger.

On June 15, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 95.95, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 11.98% lower than the highest point of 109.01 on August 28, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

The data shows that polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) in North China shows an overall fluctuating downward trend from April to June 2020. On April 1, the mainstream price was about 1912 yuan / ton, and on June 15, the mainstream price was about 1775 yuan / ton, with a downward range of 7.19%. Poor downstream demand is the key factor leading to the decline. Among them, the price fluctuation range is roughly: industrial level, liquid and alumina content 10%-12% including tax 350-400 yuan / ton; solid content, 20-21% quoted price 860 yuan / ton; content 24% quoted price 1100-1200 yuan / ton; content 26% price 1280-1400 yuan / ton; solid content, 28% or more, price 1580-2000 yuan / ton; spray type content is more than 30% 30% quotations 1600-1850 yuan / ton; drinking water level, content more than 28% 28% quoted price Yuan / ton, food grade quotation is about 2800 yuan / ton.

According to the survey of the business club, in the upstream products of PAC, the price change of hydrochloric acid has a great impact on PAC, and the stock of calcium powder and bauxite manufacturers has a certain impact on the ex factory price of their products. Secondly, because natural gas is used for drying in the process, the price change of natural gas has a certain impact. In June, the main factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China fluctuated slightly, first rising slightly and then falling slightly. The fluctuation range was about 5 yuan / ton. On June 1, 333 yuan / ton, and on June 15, 330 yuan / ton was quoted. The actual transaction price of the manufacturer shall be subject to negotiation. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream white carbon black market is gradually falling, which has a negative impact on hydrochloric acid, while the downstream ammonium chloride market is high in consolidation, which has a certain support for the price of hydrochloric acid. In the first half of the month, the hydrochloric acid market as a whole seemed to rise slightly at the beginning of the month, and fell slightly in the middle of the month, with a very small range. It is still a big problem that it is difficult to ship in the first half of the month. Downstream: according to the manufacturer, in this year’s special situation, the market is weak, and the demand for several consecutive months is weak, which makes the manufacturer adjust the price successively to reduce the inventory. Although there are some water treatment projects in demand in the near future, they are certainly not as good as the previous years, especially the current situation of Beijing epidemic is again severe, and the manufacturer has little expectation for the market change.

As far as the whole industry is concerned, from 2020 to now, during the Spring Festival holiday to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area have stopped production and delayed to return to work; after February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area have resumed production in succession; in March, the logistics has gradually recovered, and the transportation cost has returned to normal; in April, the overall production is normal, due to the difficulty of delivery, some enterprises still have high inventory, and the production is affected; in May, polyaluminium chloride The overall demand hasn’t recovered, the market situation is poor, the delivery is general, and the transaction continues to be weak; in June, it’s more than half, the raw materials have not changed much, the natural gas used for drying rebounded about 1 percentage point from the bottom this month, which has little impact on the market, the downstream demand is still general, and the situation of the industry has not changed much.

As for the future market, according to the analysis of the business agency, the price of the upstream raw materials hydrochloric acid, bauxite and calcium powder in June has not changed much, and the price of the process fuel natural gas has changed slightly in the past half of the month, the key is that the downstream demand of PAC has not changed much; in the situation of little change in the upstream and downstream situation, the market of PAC is difficult to change greatly, and the future market is expected to maintain stability We need to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic on the local demand.

Data shows that on June 14, the average price of acetone market in East China was 11900 yuan / ton, and on June 17, the price of acetone market in East China fell to 10700 yuan / ton, which was greatly reduced due to the reduction of purchase volume in market demand, 10.1%; from the perspective of the national market, in the surrounding areas of Yanshan and Shandong, the supply side is tight, the market supply is scarce, and the offer of the commodity holder is relatively firm, and the negotiation range is 11900-12300 yuan / ton, but the market transaction is rare. From the perspective of domestic factories, due to the market supply is still tight, the quoted price of factories is relatively stable and the overall adjustment is not large.

First of all, the acetone market fell sharply, mainly affected by the decline in terminal operating rate, and some terminal factories shut down in the whole industry. The downstream of acetone mainly includes isopropanol, MMA, MIBK, bisphenol A and other products. After more than two months’ sharp rise in acetone market, the market is at a high level with a rare history. The shutdown enterprises in the downstream industry have increased in succession. For example, MIBK industry has been completely annihilated in the middle of last month and all factories have been shut down. Other products follow the rise of acetone market, but the start-up is also gradually declining. The only reason is that the operating rate of isopropanol plant has been kept high due to the influence of overseas demand on disinfectant Market. After entering the high price of isopropanol in mid June, the demand of overseas disinfectant Market is also gradually looking for more substitutes, such as ethanol and n-propanol. Overseas orders decreased, and the operating rate of isopropanol plant fell. Today, the acetone market fell sharply.

Secondly, the raw material market fell and the cost side fell. In terms of pure benzene as the main raw material, the market focus in Shandong Province is weak, the price of refined benzene in the refining industry is still lower, and the price difference between the refining industry and Sinopec is narrowed. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of pure benzene in Shandong Province was 3750 yuan / ton on June 14, and 3670 yuan / ton on June 17, down 2.13%, and 3430-3700 yuan / ton on June 17. Propylene, another raw material, rose in a narrow range. The offer of propylene in Shandong Province rose from 6531 to 6777 yuan / ton, up 3.76%, but the production of phenol ketone is less propylene, which has far less impact than pure benzene.

Thirdly, the phenol ketone industry chain as a whole is mainly downward, and there are many negative positions in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, only one kind of commodity rose in the price rise and fall list of phenolic ketone industry from June 15 to 17, 2020, and its commodity is propylene. There were 5 falling commodities in total. The main commodities falling on the 17th were isopropanol (- 2.94%), acetone (- 2.16%) and bisphenol A (- 0.81%). The average rise and fall was – 0.59%, and the phenol ketone industry chain rose and fell negative for three consecutive days.

According to the business association, the acetone market has been affected by the overhaul year and supported by the disinfection market demand. On the whole, it has been at a high level. This week, although the market has declined, it is still at a high level throughout history. After the sharp rise, there will be a big drop. Although the current supply side is tight, the downstream construction situation is not optimistic. The isopropanol factory is also reducing the operating rate. The high isopropanol in the overseas market is unsalable. The business agency predicted that the acetone market would continue to decline. This week, the mainstream market is expected to fall below 10000 yuan. However, the factories and imports are still tense. The high price suppliers still maintain a high price. The market is at a high level in the short term, and the weak market in the medium term is steadily falling.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of the business agency, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on June 1 was 1856 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on June 15 was 1863 yuan / ton, up 0.36%..

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on June 1 was 2156 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on June 15 was 2145 yuan / ton, with the price down 0.53%..

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium: the market price of monoammonium phosphate rose slightly in the first half of June. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of the total price of powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and 60% of the total price of powdered ammonium is 2050-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted about 1950 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Diammonium phosphate: in the first half of June, the market trend of diammonium phosphate fell slightly. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2150-2250 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province 2200-2350 yuan / ton. 64% of mainstream diammonium in Gansu Province is priced at 2250-2400 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium at the first station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2400 yuan / ton.

Upstream: in June, the overall market of China’s phosphorus ore market is weak, and the weak market in many regions mainly maintains stable operation. With the arrival of the traditional off-season, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the demand is not smooth. At present, most of the mines mainly supply contract customers. At present, the domestic sulfur inventory is low, the supply is reduced, and the market quotation is stable and rising. On June 15, the reference price of sulfur was 620.00, up 17.72% from June 1 (526.67)

Downstream: the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises follow up slowly, and pay more for raw materials as required, the overall market is cold. The trading volume of compound fertilizer market is limited, and some areas sell at low prices.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 23rd week of 2020 (6.8-6.12), there are 0 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities, and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities falling were phosphoric acid (- 3.57%) and yellow phosphorus (- 1.68%). This week’s average was – 1.05%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that the raw material market of ammonium phosphate rose in the first half of June, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is still weak. The pre-sale order of monoammonium phosphate is large and the price slightly rises. It is expected that the trend of monoammonium phosphate will be stable in the later stage. The domestic demand for DAP is poor and the domestic operation rate is reduced. It is expected that the market of DAP will be stable in the later stage.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, affected by the poor demand, the dichloromethane market in Shandong fell sharply. As of June 16, the average price in Shandong was about 2130 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton per day, down 4.48% from the same period last week.

Commencement of plant capacity of the enterprise

440000 tons / year in Jinling, Shandong 80%

Dongying Jinmao 120000t / a parking

40 million tons / year of Luxi Chemical Industry 60%

280000t / A, 50% in Dongyue, Shandong

Jiangxi Liwen 120000 tons / year 70-80%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000t / a full load

Jiangsu Meilan 200000 tons / year 70%

300000 yuan / year, 70% in quhua, Zhejiang

Zhejiang Juhua 300000 tons / year 90%

At present, domestic dichloromethane production enterprises have been operating at a high level as a whole, and the spot market supply is sufficient, but the downstream market demand is weak, and the situation that the market supply exceeds the demand gradually appears. In order to prevent the increase of the future market stock pressure, the enterprises will immediately yield profits for shipment, and the situation of competitive sales among enterprises is obvious.

From the perspective of industrial chain, the upstream and downstream markets of dichloromethane are not performing well. The methanol market is volatile and downward, and the main manufacturers have strong intention to hold a firm price, but the market transaction atmosphere is light, and the purchase intention is flat. At present, the average price in Shandong Province is about 1620 yuan / ton. The overall demand of the downstream solvent film pharmaceutical industry is poor, the rigid demand is insufficient, and the refrigerant market has excess capacity, but the overall operation is poor, and the price falls to a new low within the year.

On the other hand, the high and firm price of raw material liquid chlorine has become the only favorable factor to support the price of dichloromethane. At present, domestic liquid chlorine enterprises are facing the coexistence of maintenance and resumption of production, the overall supply is tight, and the enterprises have a good intention to hold the price. At present, 800-1000 yuan / ton.

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business association, at present, the supply of dichloromethane is more than the demand in the market. With the increasing inventory pressure of enterprises, the behavior of profit selling among enterprises is obvious. However, the firm price of raw material liquid chlorine leads to the lack of space for enterprises to reduce their quotation. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak in a short period of time, and the space for reduction is limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average price of phosphoric acid in China on June 16 was 4950 yuan / ton, down 2.94% compared with Tuesday (9), 4.81% compared with 5200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (1), and 8.79% higher than the same period last year

2、 Market analysis

In June, the phosphoric acid market was weak, and the price continued to fall. After the implementation of the high water price for raw material yellow phosphorus, the price fell to a low level. Due to the close relationship between phosphoric acid (thermal process) and yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus decreased rapidly, the cost end support collapsed, and the price of phosphoric acid also decreased. The trading center continued to move downward, and some enterprises decreased significantly, with a maximum of 400 yuan. At present, the trend of phosphoric acid continues to decline, the wait-and-see mood of enterprises increases, the trading atmosphere is general, the market transactions are mostly concentrated in the middle and low end, the high-end price begins to decline, and the shipment is under pressure. At present, the transaction of wet process phosphoric acid is acceptable. Due to the low inventory and good transaction, the price of the enterprise has not been greatly reduced. However, on the whole, the supply and demand of phosphoric acid market are weak, the trend continues to decline, and the future market is not optimistic.

According to the monitoring of the business association, as of June 16, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 4950 yuan / ton, and the price in Sichuan region was about 4750 yuan / ton – 5200 yuan / ton, with a downward trend; the price in Guangxi region was about 4730 yuan / ton, with a downward trend; the price in Yunnan region was about 4800 yuan / ton, with a weak transaction; the price in Beijing region was about 4900 yuan / ton, with a downward trend; the price in Hubei region was about 4900 yuan / ton, with a downward trend The price is about 4800 yuan / ton, and the price drops; the price in Jiangsu is about 4500 yuan / ton, and the price is temporarily stable; the price in Tianjin is about 5300 yuan / ton, and the price in Tianjin is down

The data shows that the export volume this year is significantly reduced compared with last year due to the impact of public health events. In March, enterprises returned to work one after another, with a significant increase in export volume. However, the export volume fell back in April, with the upgrading of overseas public health events, with a sharp decrease in export volume. Only a few big companies are selling goods, and the business is in a negative state of mind. Most of them are sold domestically.

Upstream, raw phosphorus ore market is currently in the off-season, the downstream demand is weak, and the market trading is cold. It is expected that the recent market price changes are limited. It is not excluded that some regions make a small profit in the actual negotiations for the accumulation of orders in the later period, so as to drive the market downward adjustment.

Yellow phosphorus market price decreased. In June, Yunnan Province entered into the wet season. After the implementation of the wet season electricity price, the cost of the enterprise went down, and the market price fell to a certain extent. The overall market sales situation is general, the downstream procurement is more cautious, who uses who takes. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will still be adjusted in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, in the near future, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been reduced, and the price of phosphoric acid has been following the decline. Downstream enterprises are cautious in their inquiry and wait-and-see attitude has been rising. It is expected that the trend of phosphoric acid will continue to decline in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price in the later period.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, as of June 15, the price of bromine in Shandong continued to decline, down 1.38% in a single day. At present, the average price is about 27833 yuan / ton, down 19.32% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: at present, the overall supply of bromine in the domestic market is more and more obvious. The production and operation of bromine enterprises in North China is stable, while the maintenance of some small factories in Shandong Province has not significantly affected the market supply. The overall spot supply of the market is stable. The downstream flame retardant market is recovering, but the manufacturers mainly consume inventory, and the overall operation rate has not been significantly improved. At present, the quotation of mainstream bromine enterprises is about 27000-28500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of sulfuric acid market is weak and stable, the inventory of enterprises is declining, and the downstream demand is flat, at present, it is about 285 yuan / ton; the sulfur market is narrow and upward, the enterprise starts to decline, the inventory is low, the market supply is reduced, at present, it is about 620 yuan / ton; the price of domestic soda ash continues to be weak, the market transaction is flat, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry is aggravating, at present, it is about 1250 yuan / ton. The main downstream flame retardant market transactions of bromine gradually recovered, most of the enterprises focused on inventory and shipment, the market operation rate was not significantly improved, the demand for bromine was not good, the start-up of pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates and other industries was flat, the bears on bromine were obvious, and the overall trading was cautious.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of the business association, the bromine market is abundant in spot supply, poor performance in downstream construction, insufficient support for bromine demand, prominent contradiction between supply and demand in the industry, and low price influx of imported bromine. It is expected that the domestic bromine market will operate in a weak position in a short period of time

On June 13, crude benzene commodity index was 47.53, flat compared with yesterday, 63.95% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 55.63% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The weekly crude benzene Market in Japan rose from June 8 to 12, 2020. The ex factory price in North China was 2901.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3101.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 6.89%.

This week’s crude oil market fell after a shock. On Wednesday and Thursday, it rose slightly and then fell rapidly. As of June 11, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. fell sharply. The settlement price of major contracts was 36.34 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 3.26 U.S. dollars or 8.23%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of main contracts was 38.55 US dollars / barrel or 7.62%, mainly due to the restart of epidemic demand concerns and the record high of crude oil storage in the United States. On Thursday, U.S. stocks and commodity futures market represented by crude oil generally fell, market concerns dominated, and risk assets were sold again.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in June 2020

date

Price after increase

Adjustment amount

Unit: yuan / ton

June 5th

three thousand and six hundred

100↑

Yuan / ton

June 10th

three thousand and seven hundred

100↑

Yuan / ton

Domestic crude benzene price went up this week. At the beginning of this week, under the triple positive influence of international crude oil going up, pure benzene going out and Sinopec’s pure benzene going up, crude benzene substantially increased the bidding price of this round. In addition, the operating rate of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises has reached a high level in 2020, which promoted the crude benzene price to go up further. The market mentality is good, and the market is obviously warmer. By Thursday, crude benzene in Shandong Province The bidding price is increased by 200 yuan / ton, and now 3100 yuan / ton is implemented.

Since the late May, the coking enterprises in Shandong Province have increased their efforts to limit production, reduced the operating rate, continued to increase the price of coke, limited supply in some areas, and a certain decline in crude benzene production. The coking enterprises have a heavy mentality of price fixing, and the price of crude benzene is high. By the end of the week, the crude oil price fell sharply, and the pure benzene market took the lead in falling back. The operating rates of styrene, aniline and other enterprises in the downstream of hydrobenzene fell slightly this week, and the market price fell. As of June 12, the styrene price in Shandong Province was 5550 yuan / ton, down 33.33 yuan / ton, or 0.6% compared with last week. The pressure on the cost of hydrogenated benzene increased, the crude benzene market also came under pressure, and the market mentality generally weakened.

According to the business community in the aftermarket, the cost pressure of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises is relatively large, with insufficient enthusiasm to keep up with the rise and lack of support. The basic negative factors of crude benzene market began to emerge at the end of the week. It is expected that the crude benzene market will fluctuate and fall next week, with lowered expectations.