1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10866 yuan / ton on March 8 at the beginning of this week, while the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10866 yuan / ton on March 12 at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable, up 19.41% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the general rise of bulk commodities, styrene futures and spot rose again, and the price of common materials rose, market inquiries and transactions improved. However, the raw material styrene began to fall sharply on Tuesday. In addition, the ex factory listing and settlement price of Huadong PS were lower than last week’s, and the offer of ordinary materials fell by different ranges. The supply of high-end materials and benzene market is relatively tight, with limited decline. According to the data, on March 11, 2021, the benzene penetration revenue of East China market was 10150-13750 yuan / ton, with the low end down 150 yuan / ton and the high end down 50 yuan / ton.

PS inventory continues to increase, supply pressure still exists, and the price difference between PS raw material and recycled material in northern China is too large, which still affects the replacement demand of PS raw material for recycled material.

3、 Future forecast

The PS market is still in a wait-and-see mood, but the profit margin is lower than last week, and there may be limited room for further correction. It is estimated that benzene penetration in East China market will be 10100-13750 yuan / ton.

On March 12, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) rose. According to the data of business news agency, on March 12, the average market price of domestic metallic silicon (441) was 13866.67 yuan / ton, up 1.53% compared with the average market price of 13658.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of March (3.1).

On December 12, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13200-13400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13600-13700 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13600-13700 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14500-14700 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 14000-14100 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu port is 13900-14000 yuan / ton .

Recently, the bulk commodity market is high, and the market of silicon downstream products is also in a good shape. The price of aluminum alloy is affected by the price of aluminum ingot, and the price of polycrystalline silicon is also on the rise. At present, the new orders of silicone DMC are increasing, and some factories still mainly deliver the early-stage contract after the start of construction. The spot supply is tight, and the price of downstream products is also strong with the rise of raw materials Up, the confidence of the upstream and downstream industry continued to improve.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, after new year’s day, the Spring Festival is approaching, terminal manufacturers have concentrated parking and maintenance, and demand turns weak. The hydrogen peroxide market begins to enter the downward channel, and the price falls continuously, from January to March 11, approaching the bottom of the valley. The market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1430 yuan / ton in early January, 932 yuan / ton on March 11, and the price fell 34.79% as a whole.

According to the performance of hydrogen peroxide in the first quarter of 2020 from December 2020 to March 11, 2021, it has been down for 4 months in February, mainly because of the limited export order of hydrogen peroxide and delay of the start of the end paper printing and other manufacturers. Hydrogen peroxide has fallen for two months in 2021, still more than 30 percent. In early March, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline mainly, with the average price of 932 yuan / ton on November, which was nearly 35% lower than that in early January.

Terminal heating enterprises are expected to rebound hydrogen peroxide in parking

Since February, the traditional consumption of hydrogen peroxide has come off-season. The end printing industry, paper industry, caprolactam and other manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has declined. In addition, the logistics cost increases, transportation is limited, and the hydrogen peroxide market enters the down channel. During the Spring Festival, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers started normally, increased supply and inventory recovered. After the Spring Festival, the end paper and printing industries have not yet fully resumed construction, and terminal demand is still poor. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers continue to reduce the factory price, and the price continues to decline, reaching 21%.

In March, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to be weak in February, because the end paper and caprolactam market rose sharply, the decline of hydrogen peroxide slowed down, and continued to stabilize. The overall quotation is still weak. On March 11, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturer, Anhui Quansheng, stopped and repaired, sold inventory and raised the price.

The terminal has been the turning point of hydrogen peroxide in the industry of lactam paper industry

Although hydrogen peroxide has fallen for two and a half months, the market of end paper and caprolactam is quite good. Paper and caprolactam have been on the rise after the start of 2021.

Paper: because Jiulong many bases released the notice of price rise after the Spring Festival before the festival, the paper factories followed the price increase after the festival. Due to the impact of public health events, the northern region stopped production ahead of schedule. With the stability of post Festival health events, the downstream paper factory started to start working actively, so the demand for raw paper began to increase. With the rising of raw material price and strong demand, the corrugated paper price rose significantly, and as of March 11, the corrugated paper price rose by more than 11.5% compared with the beginning of January.

Caprolactam: after the Spring Festival, on the outside market, the cold weather in the United States has affected the shutdown of crude oil and chemical refineries, which led to a sharp rise in pure benzene. Caprolactam is supported by the rising of pure benzene raw materials, and the general starting rate of the terminal PA6 chip manufacturers have started, with increasing demand, and the market ushered in a rising channel, and the price continued to rise. As of March 11, caprolactam prices rose 28.64% from the beginning of January.

Li Bing, an analyst with hydrogen peroxide at the business agency, said: in late March, hydrogen peroxide production enterprises stopped maintenance, supply was tight, terminal market recovered, demand was higher, and hydrogen peroxide would usher in an increase.

According to the data monitoring of business society, as of March 10, the average price of domestic butanone market was 8500 yuan / ton, and the average price rose 134 yuan / T, down 1.59% compared with the 9-day (average value of butanone reference 8366 yuan / ton); compared with the price of 1 day (the average value of butanone reference is 8766 yuan / ton), the average price has been decreased by 266 yuan / ton, down 3.04%. Compared with the price of February 18 after the Spring Festival (the average price of butanone reference is 7133 yuan / ton), the average price is up 1367 yuan / T, or 19.16%.

In February, from the end of the Spring Festival to the end of the Spring Festival, the domestic butanone price rose rapidly. In just ten days, butanone market reached a high-end in half a year. The high-end market quotation exceeded 9000 yuan / T, and the 10-day increase reached 18%.

Butanone market continued to decline in March when domestic demand was less than March

In March, under the high price, the wait-and-see mood of the domestic trade market increased, and the downstream recovery was slow. The spot delivery of butanone was generally performed. On March and 4th, the overall price of butanone market declined, and the market price in South China was greatly reduced, and the price fell from 8800-9000 yuan / ton to 8200-8400 yuan / ton, and the market price in East China was also lowered to different degrees, and the price fell from 8650-8850 yuan / ton to 8 250-8450 yuan / ton. In early June, the main factories of Ding mainly received foreign trade orders and processed the pre orders. The inventory pressure of the factory was relatively small, and the spot of butanone market in Shandong Province was tight. However, the sharp decline in the market for several consecutive days brought a heavy drop. The market price of butanone was difficult to support. On August 8, the butanone price fell again, down by 100-200 yuan / T, and the sales price of butanone was 8200-8300 yuan / ton. Then, butanone was sold in advance at 8200-8300 yuan / ton The market of ketone basically remained stable. On September 9, spot traders began to settle prices. It was heard that on September 9, the quotation of individual traders in South China increased slightly, but the market investment atmosphere was general. On October, driven by the upward price of carbon four after the upstream raw material ether, the cost support of butanone was enhanced, and the butanone price rebounded slightly. The ex factory price of butanone in East China was 8400-8500 yuan / ton, up by 100-300 yuan/ About tons. The cost pressure is increasing, downstream factory procurement is depressed, and the market is mainly stable for operation.

According to the business agency, the following is the reference price of butanone in some parts of China in March

Product region: March 1 March August March 10 rise and fall

Butanone: East China: 8650-8850 yuan / T: 8250-8350 yuan / ton: 8400-8500 yuan / t-300

Butanone South China RMB 8800-9000 / T 8200-8400 yuan / T 8400-8600 yuan / T-400

The game of cold supply and demand in downstream is continuously high and weak, and the short-term market is adjusted mainly by narrow amplitude fluctuation

The demand downstream of butanone is cold and the wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. The market supply and demand game is obvious. From the supply and demand side, the driving force of butanone is not enough. Therefore, the analysis of butanone data of business society believes that the domestic butanone market market in the short term is mainly adjusted by narrow range fluctuation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the demand change of downstream raw materials.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business news agency, as of March 9, the average price of domestic Mannheim potassium sulfate 50 particle samples was 2833.33 yuan / ton, up 1.80% from the average price at the beginning of the month, and up 1.74% from the same period of last month.

In early March, the potassium sulfate Market was positive, and the domestic potassium sulfate price was stable after rising. In terms of inventory, it is reported that the potassium sulfate inventory of major ports is stable recently, and the inventory in the market is mostly held by large businesses. The upstream potassium chloride market has a positive trend in the near future, with a certain increase. The cost side support of potassium sulfate was strengthened, driving the spot price up. With the preparation of spring ploughing, the demand for compound fertilizer and potassium fertilizer has increased. From the perspective of on-site trading, at present, there is rigid demand in downstream factories, but the orders are small, and the response to high price supply is general. In terms of supply, the overall domestic reserves are stable, the inventory of terminal sellers is limited, and the big sellers have a certain control over shipment.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency potassium sulfate analysts believe that: at present, potassium sulfate manufacturers offer generally up, recent spot prices generally up 50-100 yuan / ton. Global petrochemical bulk products and direct upstream potassium chloride are generally stronger, which strongly supports the cost of potassium sulfate. Domestic market trading situation is general, inventory and supply situation is stable. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will be high in the near future.

Today, the price of epoxy resin has been raised in some regions. At present, it is 8400 yuan / ton in East China, 8400 yuan / ton in North China, 8200 yuan / ton in South China, 8600 yuan / ton in Central China and 8400 yuan / ton in Northeast China.

Due to the continuous tight inventory and strong purchase intention of downstream purchasers, the external price of ethylene in Asia rose for six consecutive days, up 14.29% compared with the beginning of the month. After the domestic ethylene price increased by 500 yuan, it has now reached 8800 yuan / ton. Today’s price of Luxi Chemical ethylene is 8200 yuan / ton, and the average price of ethylene is around 8500 yuan. Based on the external price of US $1200, ethylene oxide has lost 67 yuan, while the estimated profit of ethylene glycol is around 185 yuan. Therefore, the manufacturers are more willing to switch to ethylene glycol, and the EO supply side is further tightened. Due to the high price of ethylene and tight supply, the price of epoxy still has room to rise. The downstream polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer was closed in Ling’an, Hubei Province today, while Sanjiang and Shanghai Dongda both rose by 200 yuan. The current market price of monomer is 10600-11100 yuan / ton, and the terminal demand is more resistant to the current monomer price, so there is no market for it. In the later stage, it is still necessary to wait for the terminal demand to further expand.

Affected by raw materials and supply side, it is still bullish.

1、 Nitric acid market price trend chart

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas was 2000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 1983 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 0.83%.

2、 Market analysis

On March 2, Anhui Jinhe quoted 1900 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last time; Anhui Aodeli quoted 1870 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton compared with last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1950 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, 930 yuan / ton of dilute nitric acid, the same as last week; Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical quoted 1900 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, the same as last time Shandong Heli Tainong nitric acid quoted 2100 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time. Local nitric acid supply pressure is obvious, and the market is not smooth.

The upstream liquid ammonia market rebounded after falling in February. According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall decline of liquid ammonia in the whole month was 0.20%, and there was still upward space in March; the domestic market price of downstream aniline rose 2.4% this week. TDI rose 2.67% in East China this week.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by the downstream favorable effect, business analysts expect that the price of nitric acid may rise.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong rose slightly this week. The average price in Shandong was about 3636.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, rose to about 3650.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, and rose slightly by 0.37% within the week.

This week, the overall start-up of dichloromethane market in Shandong Province decreased slightly, and the market supply was still tight. Affected by the low start-up of Luxi Chemical Industry, Jinling, Shandong Province had a plan to reduce the load in March, and Jinmao continued to stop. The overall regional supply was tight, which was good for the price support of dichloromethane. Enterprises had no inventory pressure, and the overall offer was firm. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3650 yuan / ton.

In the upstream market, affected by the strong trend of crude oil futures, the methanol market quotation in various regions also rose slightly to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business community, the methanol price was 2295 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2335 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.71% in the whole week.

Affected by the high cost, the price of the refrigerant market rose, and the traders returned to the market one after another after the festival and gradually stocked up. The refrigerant shipment increased slightly compared with the previous period, but the overall situation was still flat, and the support for dichloromethane was not strong.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that, at present, the supply of dichloromethane in Shandong is tight, there is no pressure on enterprise inventory, and the downstream market starts to recover slowly. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to rise steadily in the later period.

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of silver in the morning market on March 5 was 5134.33 yuan / kg, a decrease of 6.31% compared with the average price of 5480.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1), and a decrease of 7.49% compared with 5550 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On March 5, the spot price of gold was 370.80 yuan / g, a decrease of 3.12% compared with the average price of 365.60 yuan / g in the early morning of the month (3.1), and a decrease of 9.80% compared with the spot price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

At present, silver has fallen to the low range in early January, and the price of gold has been falling all the way to a new low in October.

 
Silver fell to its low in early January

Similar to Gamestop, the news of short selling of silver helped silver prices to rise sharply in the middle and late January. However, based on the silver market size reaching about US $200 billion and the regulatory policy of stock exchange’s position limit, the short selling of silver did not end quickly.

Gold hit a new low in October

Different from the trend of bulk metal commodities, gold has been falling continuously since its peak in August 2020. At present, the price of gold has been at a low level for nearly 10 months, close to the price level at the end of March 2020.

Main reasons for the decline of precious metals in March

1. Soaring bond yields

Powell’s comments on Thursday sent the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds back to more than 1.5%. The rise in US Treasury yields increases the opportunity cost of holding unproductive gold and weakens the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedging tool.

2. Lack of investment demand

After the investment peak in 2020, the price of precious metals will gradually weaken. With the continuous introduction of vaccines into the market, the expectation of economic recovery from the epidemic is strengthened, and the possibility of real interest rate rising is increasing.

The expected outflow of investment funds from gold ETF increased, and domestic gold ETF positions fell due to factors such as stronger exchange rate.

3. Closure of alternative assets

Other alternative assets, including the recently soaring commodity market and the so-called competitive bitcoin, have dispersed investors’ demand for gold.

Is the turning point coming

Basically, the demand for solar panels is increasing in the automotive industry and other industrial applications, In the long run, the real interest rate will remain low, the Central Bank of developed economies will continue to buy government debt, the industrial demand will increase, the demand for jewelry and silverware will also increase, the silver demand for disinfection and medical industry and the supply of silver ore will decrease, and other factors will have strong support for silver.

It is expected that the downward space of precious metals will narrow, and the later period will mainly focus on today’s non-agricultural report data.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong rose slightly this week. The average price in Shandong was about 3636.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, rose to about 3650.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, and rose slightly by 0.37% within the week.

This week, the overall start-up of dichloromethane market in Shandong Province decreased slightly, and the market supply was still tight. Affected by the low start-up of Luxi Chemical Industry, Jinling, Shandong Province had a plan to reduce the load in March, and Jinmao continued to stop. The overall regional supply was tight, which was good for the price support of dichloromethane. Enterprises had no inventory pressure, and the overall offer was firm. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3650 yuan / ton.

In the upstream market, affected by the strong trend of crude oil futures, the methanol market quotation in various regions also rose slightly to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business community, the methanol price was 2295 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2335 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.71% in the whole week.

Affected by the high cost, the price of the refrigerant market rose, and the traders returned to the market one after another after the festival and gradually stocked up. The refrigerant shipment increased slightly compared with the previous period, but the overall situation was still flat, and the support for dichloromethane was not strong.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that, at present, the supply of dichloromethane in Shandong is tight, there is no pressure on enterprise inventory, and the downstream market starts to recover slowly. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to rise steadily in the later period.