According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 7850.00 yuan / ton on January 31 and 8016.67 yuan / ton on February 9, with an increase of 2.12% and 1.69% compared with January 1.

According to the data monitoring of business society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10712.50 yuan / ton on January 31 and 10837.50 yuan / ton on February 9, up 1.17% during the period and down 2.58% compared with January 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8033.33 yuan / ton on January 31, and 8266.67 yuan / ton on February 9, with an increase of 2.90% and 1.22% compared with January 1.

In February, there were two small rises in the three major spot varieties, among which, HDPE in East China was the most obvious, with a rise rate of about 250 yuan / ton. The next is LLDPE in East China, with an increase rate of about 200 yuan / ton, and LDPE in East China has the smallest increase rate, about 150 yuan / ton.

Near the Spring Festival, the spot market is dominated by favorable factors, and the price rises slightly. The first is the upstream international crude oil, which went up continuously in February to the highest level in nearly a year. On the one hand, the extremely cold weather caused by the blizzard attack in the southeast of the United States led to a rapid rise in fuel heating demand. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have continued to effectively promote production reduction, which has brought a good supply side environment to oil prices. And in the past two weeks, the sharp decline of US commercial crude oil inventories has become a direct driver to stimulate the rise of oil prices. The rise of crude oil has brought some benefits to the market.

The second is the futures market. In February, Liansu futures rose significantly, which brought some support to the market. The petrochemical enterprises slightly increased the ex factory price, the cost support was acceptable, the business mentality was good, and the tentative high report was made. On the downstream side, near the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream enterprises have the intention to prepare goods before the festival, the enthusiasm to enter the market is good, and the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong.

On February 9, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2105 was 8030, the highest price was 8075, the lowest price was 7925, the closing price was 7995, the former settlement price was 8040, the settlement price was 7985, down 45, down 0.56%, the trading volume was 292385, the position was 307343, and the daily increase was – 18100. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the ex factory price of petrochemicals rises slightly, and the cost support is acceptable. However, with the arrival of the Spring Festival, the transportation in some areas is blocked, and the downstream factories have holidays one after another, and the operating rate is obviously declining. Although the petrochemical enterprises have a strong mentality and continue to adjust the ex factory price, the market transaction atmosphere is light, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. At present, the upstream inventory has accumulated to a certain extent, and the downstream is in conflict with the high price. It is expected that the polyethylene market will be mainly consolidated after the festival or weak.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 10, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica is 4700.00 yuan / ton. The holiday is coming, and the enterprise has started the holiday mode. The market situation of silica is cold, the downstream demand is flat, the stock atmosphere is cold, the overall supply and demand of the market is balanced, and the early market trend is maintained. The quotation range is between 4000-5000 yuan / ton, and the price is stable .

The domestic rubber grade silica market as a whole shows a stable operation trend, with contract orders, just need procurement as the main, the procurement atmosphere is flat, the number of new orders is limited, and most of them are mainly for negotiation. The delivery is slow near the holiday, the negotiation atmosphere is general, and the merchants are cautious in taking the goods, and the delivery is slow. The latest enterprise prices are Shandong Lihua 4600 yuan / ton, Boai xiang4200 yuan / ton, Shandong Shouguang 5300 yuan / ton. Maintain the early market trend.

On February 9, the silica commodity index was 105.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.42% from 109.61 (2020-11-11), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.40% from 89.41, the lowest point on October 7, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream hydrochloric acid inventory is high and the delivery is slow. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the enterprises have holidays one after another. The downstream demand is limited, and the overall market is weak. As of February 9, 2021, the hydrochloric acid manufacturers in North China have stable quotations and maintain the early operation trend.

On February 9, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 48.68, flat with yesterday, down 51.32% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-12), and up 170.75% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

On February 9, the chemical industry index was 875 points, 2 points higher than yesterday, 13.88% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and 46.32% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

According to the white carbon black analysts of business news agency, with the coming of Spring Festival holiday, various enterprises have entered the holiday mode one after another, and the white carbon black market has maintained a stable operation trend with flat demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of February 10, the average price of domestic power lithium iron phosphate was 41000.00 yuan / ton. Near the holiday, the market negotiation atmosphere is flat, the transaction atmosphere is general, and the shipment is slow. Most enterprises have entered the holiday mode, the transaction quantity is limited, and the overall market maintains the early market trend.

The market price range of LiFePO4 power type is 41000-45000 yuan / ton, the downstream demand has not increased significantly, and the overall market purchasing atmosphere is flat. At present, the price range of LiFePO4 energy storage type is 36000-40000 yuan / ton, and the inventory is general. The market price of upstream lithium carbonate remains stable. At present, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 69000-70000 yuan / ton, and the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 70000-74000 yuan / ton In the short term, it will maintain a stable trend with limited price fluctuation.

On February 9, the chemical industry index was 875 points, 2 points higher than yesterday, 13.88% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and 46.32% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

According to LiFePO4 analysts of business news agency, the market of LiFePO4 is mainly stable with the coming of holidays, and the shipment quantity is limited. It is expected that there will be a recovery after the year.

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on February 9 was 15763.33 yuan / ton, up 3.34% compared with the average price of 15240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (February 1), and up 0.23% compared with the average price of 15240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1)

At present, the aluminum price has basically recovered the decline in January. The recent recovery of aluminum price is mainly based on the following factors:

1. Production cost up

In the first ten days of February, the production cost rose slightly. The average cost of electrolytic aluminum production was about 13600.00 yuan / ton, slightly higher than that at the end of January, with a range of 10 yuan / ton. At present, the average profit level rose by more than 100 yuan / ton.

2. The stock accumulation is weaker than expected

At present, near the end of the aluminum consumption off-season, the market expected social inventory accumulation phenomenon is less than expected. The social inventory was 730000 tons, compared with 945000 tons in the same period last year.

2. High proportion of aluminum water supply and high output of extruded aluminum ingot

It is reported that in January 2021, the weighted proportion of molten aluminum in the aluminum industry was 64.61%, only 3.61% lower than that of last month; that is to say, the monthly increase of aluminum ingots was about 120000 tons, about 180000 tons lower than that of previous years.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market was temporarily stable in mid February. As of the 14th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 5950 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of phthalic anhydride remained stable, the spot supply on the floor was normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride was firm.

In the near future, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is stable, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the downstream demand is normal, the price trend of o-benzene is stable, the plasticizer market is improved, and the price of phthalic anhydride is deadlocked. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started at a low level. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the market was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was slightly tight. The price of phthalic anhydride in the market was firm. The downstream plasticizer industry rose slightly. The actual transaction was not obviously good. The price trend of phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, with limited high-end transactions in the market. The mainstream of neighboring France source negotiation in East China is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and naphthalene method source negotiation is 5700-5900 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5800-6000 yuan / ton, and the market outlook of phthalic anhydride is still in place. The downstream procurement is better than before, and the price of downstream DOP rises before the festival, giving a boost to phthalic anhydride market The market was supported by certain positive factors, but the price trend of phthalic anhydride market was temporarily stable.

In recent years, the domestic price of o-benzene has been rising mainly, with the floor price maintaining 5000 yuan / ton. The higher domestic price of o-benzene is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import price of o-benzene in the port area has been rising, and the external quotation of o-benzene has been rising. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. In addition, the strong wait-and-see mood of o-benzene merchants in the floor, the price of o-benzene has been rising, and the raw material price has been rising The price rise of o-benzene is good for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and there is room for the price rise of phthalic anhydride in the market.

In February, the market price of phthalic anhydride downstream DOP continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business society, as of the 14th, the domestic DOP price was 10050 yuan / ton, the price of isooctanol rebounded, the cost price of DOP raw materials remained stable, the equipment start-up of DOP enterprises was temporarily stable, the price of PVC fluctuated and warmed up, and the demand of downstream customers was low. The plasticizer market has increased momentum and weak downward pressure, and the transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The overall DOP price is about 10000-10700 yuan / ton. The future DOP market has increased momentum and weak downward pressure, and the domestic phthalic anhydride price may rise slightly due to the favorable support from the downstream.

Overall, the recent rise in crude oil prices, coupled with the improvement of downstream plasticizer industry, the market of phthalic anhydride is supported by the positive. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly after the festival.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of ammonium sulfate rose this week. The average price of ammonium sulfate was 616.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 643.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price was increased by 4.32% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate rose. Yesterday, the mainstream price of domestic ammonium sulfate market rose with the auction price, and the overall trend of domestic ammonium sulfate was good. At present, export orders are performing well. Under the influence of domestic downstream manufacturers’ mentality of buying up but not buying down, winter storage is more active than the previous period, and the volume of goods received increases. Coking grade ammonium sulfate was raised, and the domestic grade ammonium sulfate Market was strong. By the end of the week, the mainstream price of powdery ammonium sulfate in Hebei was 650 yuan / ton, that in Shandong was 550-580 yuan / ton, and that in Hunan was about 700 yuan / ton.

Under the influence of the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the downstream manufacturers are more active in winter storage than in the early stage, and the receiving volume increases. At present, the enterprise inventory is generally low, ammonium sulfate market rose this week. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the downstream stock tends to end, and ammonium sulfate will stabilize.

3、 Future forecast

According to the ammonium sulfate analysts of business news agency, the mainstream price of domestic ammonium sulfate market rose with the auction price yesterday, the downstream receiving volume increased, the winter storage was more active than the previous period, and the overall purchasing atmosphere of coking grade ammonium sulfate was relatively active. The demand of internal ammonium sulfate is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, it is expected that the coking grade ammonium sulfate will be stabilized in the short term, and the internal grade ammonium sulfate will be stabilized in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market fell slightly in the week (2.1-2.5), with the price at 11360.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 11260.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 0.88% overall.

This week (2.1-2.5) the ex factory price of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber manufacturers was stable. According to the monitoring of the business society, as of February 5, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast sales company was 11400 yuan / ton; the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec North China sales company was stable, Qilu cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11400 yuan / ton, and North China warehouse was raising the price; Yanshan cis-1,3-polybutadiene rubber was 11320 yuan / ton, and North China warehouse was.

On the one hand, the overall operating rate of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is lower. According to the business news agency, the recent operating load of Yanshan cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is below 50%, while the Yangtze cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant continues to stop, so the overall pressure on the supply side is not big.

Raw material prices fell slightly this week, the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber support weakened. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of February 5, the butadiene price was 6051 yuan / ton, down slightly by 0.08% compared with 6056 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

On the demand side, near the Spring Festival, the demand of downstream market is flat. According to the business news agency, by the end of January, the operating rate of semi steel tire manufacturers remained at 64.09%%; the operating rate of all steel tire manufacturers was 66.55%, both lower than last week.

Future forecast: business community analysts believe that at present, the price of raw material butadiene is falling, and the downstream demand is flat, forming a certain negative effect on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. However, due to the low overall operating rate of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber and little pressure on the supply side, it is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will remain stable in the short term, although it is weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price remained stable in the first half of this month, then dropped sharply after rising in the second half of this month, and rose slightly at the end of this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7223 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7068 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 2.14%; on January 19 and 20, the monthly high price was 7495 yuan / ton, and on January 28, the monthly low price was 6973 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 6.97%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price fell all the way at the end of December. It began to rise on New Year’s day, and rose by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. Later, it was stable or rose, and generally showed a ladder like rise. This month, it has risen by about 250-300 yuan / ton. On the 21st, it began to decline continuously, and on the 28th, it has fallen by 500-550 yuan / ton. On the 29th, it was stable. On the 30th and 31st, the price rose. Now, the market transaction is between 7000-7350 yuan / ton The mainstream price is about 7000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is too high, and the shipment situation is cold.

On January 28, crude oil prices fell slightly, with limited impact on propylene.

PP fluctuated steadily in the first ten days of this month, then rose rapidly after falling in the middle ten days, and continued to stabilize in the last ten days, with a monthly increase of 2.45% and a monthly amplitude of 3.94%. The futures market was also slightly cold, with limited impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid prices stabilized after the downward trend this month, with a monthly decline of 3.73% and a monthly amplitude of 4.41%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

This month, the market of propylene oxide rose slightly and then fell steadily, with a monthly decline of 9.35% and a monthly amplitude of 11.38%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market showed a ladder like decline this month, with a monthly decline of 12.80%, which has a certain suppression effect on propylene.

This month, the domestic n-butanol price dropped sharply in the first half of the month, and then fluctuated and stabilized in the second half of the month, with a monthly decline of 10.07% and a monthly amplitude of 20.50%. As there was a steady correction in the second half of the month, it had a slight negative impact on the propylene market.

The trend of octanol in this month is similar to that of n-butanol. It is also a rapid correction after the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, it fluctuates and stabilizes, with a monthly decline of 12.68% and a monthly amplitude of 22.82%, which has a negative impact on propylene.

In the first half of this month, isopropanol went down and then fluctuated and became stable. In the second half of this month, isopropanol showed a rapid upward trend, with a monthly rise of 7.85% and a monthly amplitude of 27.31%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in East China fluctuated and stabilized after the downward adjustment at the beginning of this month, and rose significantly at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.91% and a monthly amplitude of 9.60%, which had a little positive effect on propylene.

The acetone market in East China fell at the beginning of this month and then showed a ladder like upward trend, with a monthly increase of 21.54% and a higher monthly amplitude of 42.34%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: Overall, there is a certain pressure on the current inventory, crude oil prices slightly down, downstream polypropylene futures market is a little cold, trading is not high, downstream market mainly wait-and-see, the market is slightly better than bad, so it is expected that the future market or in situ shock of propylene in the near future, not excluding the possibility of a small increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber was strong this week (1.29-2.5). As of February 5, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 6590 yuan / ton, up 3.67% from last Friday’s price of 6357, and down 7.5% year on year. The quotation of most manufacturers has been increased by 200-400 yuan / ton. In the futures market, the main short fiber Futures (2105) closed higher on February 5, closing at 6776, 158 or 2.39% higher than last Friday’s closing at 6618. This week, international oil prices rose for five consecutive days, which led to a significant rise in PTA and glycol prices. With the increase of the cost, the number of shutdown and maintenance of the plant increased, the downstream goods were prepared, and the polyester staple fiber spot and futures showed a significant increase. However, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the actual market transactions decreased, and polyester staple fiber may be stable and strong before the festival.

2、 Factors affecting price

1. PTA: the domestic PTA spot market trend is stronger this week. At the end of this week, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3995 yuan / ton, up 3.59% from the beginning of this week, and down 14.31% from the same period last year. International oil prices rose for five consecutive days this week. The cost rises sharply, PTA price is firm. With the coming of the Spring Festival, the terminal loom factories are gradually on holiday, and the start-up is declining. They have a more wait-and-see attitude towards raw materials, and the market transactions are decreasing.

2. Ethylene glycol: the domestic ethylene glycol spot market rose this week. At the end of this week, the average ex factory price of oil based ethylene glycol in North China was 4816 yuan / ton, up 5.09% from last Friday, almost flat on a year-on-year basis. Port inventory continued to decline, international oil prices continued to rise, glycol prices rose sharply. Affected by the policy of celebrating Chinese New Year in situ, the operation rate of ethylene glycol plant increased, and the operation rate of downstream polyester was also higher than that of previous years. However, the operating rate of terminal looms has declined obviously. It is expected that the polyester market will be under pressure after the Spring Festival, and the market of ethylene glycol may be affected.

3. Polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market is running smoothly this week. This weekend, the spot market average price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 14167 yuan / ton, the same as last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.35%. Recent pure polyester market quotation is stable, Spring Festival holiday, transaction decline. Downstream weaving factories and textile raw material traders have basically finished preparing goods before the Spring Festival, with more downtime and holidays, and the market is gradually cold.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that since the new year of 2021, crude oil, PTA continued to rise, the cost of polyester staple fiber support is obvious. With the end of downstream goods preparation, the polyester market gradually entered the vacation stage, the lack of actual transactions in the market, the market before the festival or stable trend, the industry is more optimistic about the supply and demand side of the market after the festival. Before the Spring Festival, affected by the increase of risk aversion in the market, the price rise of polyester staple fiber may be limited. However, at present, the crude oil market is still strong, the recovery of demand in the peak season after the Spring Festival is still possible, and the short-term polyester staple fiber may continue to show a strong oscillation trend.

With the digestion of the negative factors of liquidity tightening, the fundamentals of the superimposed rubber market are still optimistic. This week, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2105 contract bottomed out and rebounded, with the futures price dropping to 14325 yuan / ton. At present, it is still operating in the range of 14000-14500 yuan / ton.

From the macro point of view, short-term macro atmosphere is empty and the expectation is changeable, which is still the biggest hidden danger hindering the upward trend of rubber price. The popularity of vaccination and the development of global COVID-19 will affect the short-term market sentiment, while the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Central Bank of China will set the trend for the middle price of rubber prices. At present, there is still some uncertainty in the global epidemic situation, and the macro short atmosphere of rubber makes it difficult for rubber prices to start a sharp rise.

From the point of view of the supply side, the current domestic main production areas have entered a state of cutting stoppage. However, in Southeast Asia, the weather forecast of cooling occurred in Thailand, and thunderstorms occurred in most areas of Southern production area, which hindered the output of raw materials. According to the preliminary assessment, the flood will last until March 2021, which will have a great impact on the rubber plantations in southern Thailand. The per unit area yield of rubber trees will continue to decline from December 2020 to March 2021. In addition, affected by the rainfall and flood in January, four southern provinces in Thailand, namely narativa, Yala, songka and beidanian, suffered from serious rubber tree defoliation. It is reported that defoliation has reduced rubber production by as much as 60%. It is estimated that the income loss of rubber farmers in southern Thailand is about 4.075 billion baht, and the rubber production will decrease by about 80000 tons. If the problem of deciduous leaf disease becomes more and more serious in Tainan production area in the later stage, it may hinder a new round of tapping operation in the future, and the rubber price will be more strongly boosted.

From the perspective of demand side, in January 2021, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell more than 180000 vehicles of various types, with a significant year-on-year growth of 54%. The monthly figure of 180000 vehicles has a different meaning. It means that at the beginning of 2021, the sales volume of the heavy truck market in January broke the historical record, creating a new high in January – about 63000 more than the previous historical record of January 2020 (116600 vehicles)! At the same time, it also means that the heavy truck market has set a new record for the tenth consecutive month – from April last year to January this year, the monthly sales volume of the heavy truck market has set a new monthly sales record, reaching a new high.

In the downstream tire industry, affected by the return of employees from other places and the rise of finished product inventory, the start-up of domestic tire enterprises has declined month on month since January. It is understood that the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, tire factories around Shandong Province have been working out plans to stop work and resume work during the Spring Festival. Among them, most tire enterprises in Dongying and Weifang of Shandong province plan to stop work and have a holiday around February 4 and return to work around February 19, which is consistent with the pace of stopping and starting work in previous years. Therefore, near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of downstream tire factories will continue to decline. According to the monitoring data, by the week of January 29, 2021, the starting load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 67.51%, down 1.42 percentage points from last week. The starting load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 64.47%, 2.14 percentage points lower than that of last week. At present, the average inventory turnover days of semi steel tire enterprises are 37.61 days, while the average inventory turnover days of all steel tire enterprises are 41.75 days, which is lower than that of the same period in previous years.

At present, there are signs of the expected turn of domestic monetary policy after the festival, and there are potential risks, which are worthy of investors’ attention. In terms of Shanghai rubber market fundamentals, the supply side production reduction is still expected, and the downstream demand continues to be optimistic. It is expected that the game between macro and fundamentals will still appear in the later stage. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures are expected to maintain the oscillatory consolidation in the range of 14000-15000 yuan / ton, and the standard rubber 2103 is expected to maintain the oscillatory consolidation in the range of 10500-11000 yuan / ton.