According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on March 25 was 40.40, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 59.60% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 48.09% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020.

Since the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, the natural rubber spot market has experienced a rapid upward trend and continued to fluctuate and weaken after a 25% rise, of which 16287 yuan / ton on February 25 is the watershed of this round of market.

Figure 2: Trend of mainstream natural rubber prices in the first quarter of 2021

Data monitoring shows that the price of domestic natural rubber latex broke through 16000 yuan / ton on February 25, which is the highest in three years since 2018, up about 25% from 13000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021, while the last high was 19800 yuan / ton on February 10, 2017. The price of natural rubber continued to fluctuate and decline after reaching the high point on February 25, and fell by 16.35% in the one month period to March 25.

In the first quarter of each year, China’s domestic rubber region stops cutting rubber, and Southeast Asia stops cutting rubber one after another, especially from February to March, when the output of new rubber stagnates, which is the traditional lowest supply of natural rubber. At the same time, taking the traditional Chinese Spring Festival holiday as the dividing point, trading enterprises usually choose the appropriate period to collect rubber before the festival, and after the year, after the middle of February, the downstream demand increases significantly, and the tire enterprises increase rapidly The operating rate of the industry has picked up rapidly. The lowest supply and demand rebounded sharply, and the natural rubber market rose rapidly supported by the strong spot fundamentals. However, as one of the futures varieties, natural rubber is directly affected by many repeated and miscellaneous factors in the world. In particular, the current foreign epidemic situation has a huge impact on the commodity market, and the international environment is complex and changeable. At the same time, China’s natural rubber will be cut off one after another at the end of this month and next month. The market is generally worried about the impact of new rubber listing on the market. When the market goes down, the speed is also fast Fierce.

In February, affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, the spot rubber price on the 26th dropped by about 950 yuan / ton, basically covering all the increase on the 25th. In March, the crude oil price experienced three sharp drops again. On the 9th, 18th and 23rd, the crude oil market had a great impact on the petrochemical industry and had a strong conductivity. The downstream futures commodities responded very quickly to it. The natural rubber price has dropped by 11.38% so far this month.

Figure 3: crude oil price trend since 2021

According to the analysis of the business association, at present, in terms of the output of new rubber, under the current weather conditions, less than 10% of the new rubber is cut in Yunnan producing areas in China. It is reported that the local powdery mildew is relatively serious, and it is unlikely that the new rubber will be put on the market in batches in a short period of time; the rain in Hainan producing areas is better, and the new rubber will not be cut in early next month, and the batch of new rubber in China’s domestic producing areas will be at the end of April at the fastest; the Southeast Asian producing areas will be the worst It will start cutting gradually in the middle of next month. At present, there is still a low supply period of half a month to one month. In terms of demand, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has been alleviated, and the demand for rubber products has increased. In addition, the domestic economic situation is good, and the downstream demand has increased. At present, China’s tire enterprises are producing well, and the operating rate has increased steadily. In terms of inventory, the rubber inventory and warehouse receipt coefficient of last week’s previous period decreased, and the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline. In terms of import and export, it was affected by the stock preparation Affected by the demand, from January to February, the import volume of natural rubber latex in China increased by 2.95% on a month on month basis and 41.44% on a year-on-year basis; after the year, the business started to recover well and the demand for rubber volume increased. It is preliminarily expected that the import volume will still rise in March. Based on the above factors, the current natural rubber market has strong support, but the market is generally worried about the new rubber market after half a month or even one month. At the same time, through the analysis of multiple factors such as macro-economy and external environment, the short-term trend of crude oil may have more interference factors, and the amplitude may be enlarged. In the long run, the economic recovery is still good for oil prices. Comprehensive analysis shows that in the short term, natural rubber mainly fluctuates slightly, beware of the transmission effect of large changes in crude oil, and in half a month to January, beware of the impact of new rubber listing on the market. Overall, the current economic situation is good, with increased downstream demand and better support.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price (March 24): 8966.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on March 24, the overall trend of domestic isopropanol market was weak and stable, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was obvious, there were many inquiries, and taking the goods was very cautious. The market price of propylene decreased, the price of acetone was high, the cost was under pressure, and the operation rate of isopropanol by acetone method was low. At present, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 8700-9000 yuan / ton, and that of isopropanol in Jiangsu is about 9100-9200 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 9100 yuan / ton. Isopropanol business analysts believe that the downstream wait-and-see mood is obvious, poor factory demand, less new single turnover. It is expected that the market price of isopropanol will be stable temporarily in the short term.

According to statistics of business society, on March 23, the average price of domestic spot market of lint was 15786 yuan / ton, down 3.09% on a month-on-month basis, up 36.84% year on year. The maximum price limit for the new territories cotton wheel entering the competition from March 22 to March 26 was 16265 yuan / ton (converted to standard grade 3128b), down 122 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. As of the 23rd, the average price of national cotton price B index representing the market price of standard cotton in mainland China was 15753 yuan / ton, down 3.2% on a month basis.

According to the latest customs data, China imported 690000 tons of cotton from January to February, an increase of 68.3% year on year, and a cumulative import of 1.66 million tons in 20 / 21, an increase of 102.4% year on year. Icac3 forecast global production and demand in the month of 20 / 21, global consumption is 24.46 million tons, output is expected to be 24.2 million tons, and the end of the period inventory is 21.11 million tons. In March, the Ministry of rural areas produced 5.91 million tons, imported 2.2 million tons, consumed 8.1 million tons, and the end of the period inventory was 7.34 million tons.

Last week, the high-level dialogue between China and the United States has seen a large divergence in negotiations. It is pessimistic about the cotton trade expectations. The United States is the largest exporter of cotton, and China is the largest consumer of cotton. And because of the impact of the higher dollar, ice cotton should be heard, under the background of market pressure, the trend is not optimistic in the short term.

With the decline of cotton price, the mentality of downstream yarn enterprises slows down, and the market demand tends to be rational. In the middle of March, Zheng cotton continued to break down and the price of domestic yarn and imported cotton in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile market dropped 500-1000 yuan / ton. In addition, the difficulty of new orders received by clothing and foreign trade companies due to the rise of raw materials and fluctuation of RMB increased. The inquiry and purchase of cotton yarn and polyester cotton yarn in textile factories, fabrics and textile enterprises slowed down significantly compared with January / February.

The market is not confident about the recovery of consumption in March and April. It was originally March of the textile peak season. Due to the high cost of raw materials in the early stage, the enterprises were cautious in receiving orders. In recent years, there are different falls in textile raw materials, the port cotton inventory is at a high level and is in a continuous rising state. In addition, the supply of imported cotton increased greatly from January to February 2021, and the supply of cotton market is in a state of abundance. It is expected that cotton market will be mainly volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell this week. As of March 19, the average price of maleic anhydride by hydrogenation of benzene remained at about 10800 yuan / ton, down 4.00% from 11250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and up 29.60% from the same period last month.

On March 19, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 101.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.73% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and increased by 98.79% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic market of phthalic maleic anhydride started steady this week. International crude oil plummeted, leading to a correction in the price of chemical products; the operation rate of unsaturated resin in the lower reaches recovered slowly, the resin market was weak and wait-and-see, and just needed procurement was the main reason. As of the 19th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 10200 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 10600 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 10000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 10000 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 10000 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene followed the trend of crude oil and styrene this week. On the 14th, the average price of pure benzene was 6670 yuan / ton, and on the 21st, the average price of pure benzene was 6450 yuan / ton, down 3.3% from last week. This week, the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong remained stable, at 6125 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane fell, and the price in Shandong was 4100 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 11th week of 2021 (3.15-3.19), there were 27 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were aniline (11.11%), lithium hydroxide (9.22%) and silicone DMC (9.01%). There were 36 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were TDI (- 8.70%), styrene (- 7.45%) and cyclohexanone (- 6.21%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 0.15%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current maleic anhydride market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the downstream just needs to purchase, the terminal demand is low, and the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the market is expected to be weak in a short time.

As of March 19, the average 180CST price of domestic fuel oil was 4775.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 1.04% from 4825.00 yuan / ton on March 15, according to the data of business news agency.

On March 19, the fuel oil commodity index was 96.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.56% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 109.87% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Domestic marine oil raw materials have limited support for fuel oil 180CST. The average price of Fukuang shale oil in the latest bidding on March 16 was 3436 yuan / T, down 130 yuan / T. according to the business news agency, as of March 19, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Zhoushan area was 4600 yuan / T, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4700 yuan / T, and the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Shanghai area was 4850 yuan / T, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cs The price is 4950 yuan / ton.

This week, the international crude oil price plummeted, and the support for fuel oil price was limited. According to business news agency monitoring, oil prices have been falling for five consecutive trading days. At the macro level, due to the release of water from the Federal Reserve and central banks, inflation expectations continued to rise, US bond yields rose, and the prices of risky assets such as stock markets and commodities were suppressed. On Thursday, the market’s expectation of inflation intensified and the tide of US debt selling hit. The yield of 10-year US debt rose to more than 1.7% for the first time in 14 months. The strengthening of the US dollar led to the decline of the stock index and the sharp drop of oil price. In addition, the pace of global economic recovery was once again dragged down by the epidemic. This time, it mainly came from the European region. The European vaccination process was blocked, which led to the expectation of slower economic recovery, Oil prices are under pressure. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to two-week lows one after another. WTI closed below US $60. WTI crude oil hit the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory has increased, with limited support for fuel oil. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development board (ESG): as of March 17, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt), including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, increased by 51000 barrels to a three-month high of 22.849 million barrels.

Future forecast: business community energy analysts believe that a sharp drop in crude oil may lead to a downward trend in raw material prices. The fuel oil market is mainly on the lookout, and some enterprises will set prices next week. At present, the downstream demand of the ship fuel market is light, and the terminal mainly purchases on demand, while the downstream replenishment is cautious. Fuel oil prices are expected to decline next week.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite was relatively stable this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 1783.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1783.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up or down by 0.

2、 Market analysis

In March, the domestic soda ash and sulfur prices continued to be high and strong, and the cost of raw materials continued to be high. At the beginning of this month, the sodium pyrosulfite manufacturers successively increased the ex factory prices, which led to a sharp rise in the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price as a whole. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1700-1950 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are concentrated in 1700-1800 yuan / ton. The production of the enterprise is stable, the inventory is maintained at about 30%, the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices are quoted by domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises not quoted are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

As of March 19, domestic soda price rose by 9.46% in March, and sulfur price rose by 8.5%. The cost of upstream raw materials continued to rise. Supported by the cost, it is expected that the market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to rise in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business news agency believe that the cost of raw materials has risen sharply. Supported by the cost, it is expected that the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to rise.

Commodity index: the polyacrylamide commodity index was 93.18 on March 18, which was flat with yesterday, down 13.02% from 107.13 (may 08, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and 12.41% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to present)

The data show that since the end of the Spring Festival in 2021, the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area have resumed production, and the production of polyacrylamide has already returned to normal; the large increase in the cost of acrylonitrile in the early stage led to a high market of polyacrylamide, with an upward range of more than 10%, and then a slight correction, falling to within 10%, about 9.84%.

According to the monitoring of business society, the current domestic (molecular weight 12 million, ionic degree 10-30) polyacrylamide mainstream quotation: cation main report 15000-16000 yuan / ton, anion main report 11000-12000 yuan / ton.

Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and supply shortage factors, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way. Especially since the Spring Festival, the market has risen sharply. The domestic price has reached the highest level in nearly five years: the mainstream quotation on February 18 is 12100 yuan / T, and the daily report of March 10 is 16500 yuan / ton, up 4500 yuan / T, with a range of 36%; however, due to the impact of the upstream price reduction in the near future, 1 On May, it was down 250 yuan / ton, and the market mainstream quotation was reduced to 16250 yuan / ton, and the current increase has dropped by 2 points, about 34%. In terms of supply, domestic manufacturers concentrated maintenance in February, reduced supply and tight supply. After years, foreign demand increased, driving the price of domestic acrylonitrile to rise greatly; it is reported that the high price greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of manufacturers’ production. The main equipment: the material feeding of Haijiang, Shandong Province was reopened on March 12; Fushun Petrochemical was originally scheduled to cancel the overhaul in April, which was reported that Shanghai SECCO’s overhaul plan in April was cancelled It is also possible to delay the stroke.

Downstream demand: affected by the high price of upstream raw materials, the cost of polyacrylamide has increased greatly. From the perspective of the conductivity of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the space for polyacrylamide rise is at least 4000 yuan / ton; however, since the Spring Festival, water treatment project is not the peak period of construction, especially at the end of heating season, the demand is weak, and the trend of polyacrylamide price rise is not sustained. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the problem of polyacrylamide price increase The previous drop was about 500 yuan / ton.

Post market forecast: business society analysis believes that the bulk raw material market is greatly affected by inflation and demand due to the overall macroeconomic environment. Raw material end, from the perspective of upstream petrochemical industry chain, the price of acrylonitrile is high in the long term, and the cost of polyacrylamide will still be at a high price; in view of the increasing demand of water treatment project in the later stage, the market of polyacrylamide will be mainly volatile in the medium and long term; the short-term demand end is weak, the price is stable, some of which is down, and the overall strength still needs time.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, China’s domestic PA6 market fell from a high level in March, and the spot price had a correction. As of the press time on March 17, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 15633.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.88% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 17.25% compared with the same period of last month.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

Upstream, caprolactam domestic market recently also began to callback, and individual spot prices fell significantly. The average offer price of sample enterprises of business cooperatives was about 13733.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.98% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a month on month increase of 19.77% compared with the same period in February. On the supply side, Luxi Chemical had unplanned capacity loss, and the domestic spot accumulation was not prominent. However, the operating rate of downstream plants has declined, caprolactam can not bear the pressure of weakening demand and fall, caprolactam market is expected to continue to adjust downward in the short term.

The price of raw material caprolactam callback weakened the cost support of PA6. In the early stage, PA6 was boosted by the tightening supply of the international crude oil and chemical industry chain. At present, the supply side is more abundant than before, and the downstream plants buy as they use, so the purchasing enthusiasm is not good. The overall inventory of polymerization plant showed an upward trend, and the accumulation speed of some models of products was faster. Recently, the merchants are still more active in shipping, and the low price supply forces the manufacturers to reduce the load.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of business news agency think: Recently, the caprolactam load of PA6 upstream is high and the price is low, which weakens the cost support of PA6. Just take delivery of PA6, there is no market demand in the downstream. On the whole, the fundamentals of PA6 are strong at present, and it is expected that the price of PA6 will continue to decrease slightly.

Last week (3.8-12), the domestic ethyl acetate Market was mainly stable. After a sharp rise in late February, the high price fell in early March. At present, the price has stabilized. According to the monitoring of the business society, the production price of ethyl acetate in East China was 8925 yuan / ton, up or down to 0 last week.

In terms of the upstream acetic acid market, it has also stepped out of the stable market after falling from a high level. The cost support is weakened. The current price of acetic acid is still high, the market supply is slightly short, the downstream demand is stable, and the acetic acid market maintains a narrow high adjustment trend in the short term.

In the first week of this month, the price of ethyl acetate manufacturers in Shandong fell, but at present, the callback trend is basically in place. With the price of jinyimeng and other manufacturers rebounding after falling, the current price is running to a relatively high level, mainly due to the easing of supply pressure and the rigid demand. Supply side: in recent years, large plants have been running stably and the market supply is sufficient, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not obvious. Moreover, in terms of demand, with the recovery of economy, the terminal industry also showed warmth, the downstream operating rate gradually increased, and the purchasing capacity increased significantly compared with the previous month.

In the future, the price of ethyl acetate will be stable due to the stable supply and demand in the short term, and there should be little room for rise and fall.

Last week, driven by the crude oil end, the unilateral price of fuel oil experienced a trend of high inflation and then stabilized. As of Friday, the main Fu futures of high sulfur fuel oil futures recorded 2578 yuan / ton, up 6.1% on a month basis; meanwhile, the main force of low sulfur fuel oil futures recorded 3379 yuan / ton, up 2.7% on a month basis. The price difference between lu2105 and fu2105 cut to 786 yuan / ton last Thursday, down 73 yuan / ton on a month basis compared with the previous week. On the external market, Singapore’s high sulfur 380cst fuel oil swap M1 contract recorded $395 / T by Friday, up 2.1% on the previous week; meanwhile, Singapore’s marine0.5% fuel oil swap M1 contract recorded $513.5/t, up 1.4% on the previous week. The external market marine 0.5% vs 380cst hsfo swap spread M1 recorded $118.5/t as of Friday, down $1.05 / ton on a month basis.

Crude oil prices rose on Monday, with Brent breaking $71 a barrel. But then international oil prices fell rapidly and began to stabilize and enter a more flat upward trend since Wednesday. We currently believe that the long logic of oil prices has not been reversed significantly. On the one hand, the upward and downward trend of last week is that the price of the previous period has risen too fast, including the pricing of some attacks on Saudi Arabia. At present, it is seen that the local facilities are not damaged in substance, and this “premium” is also falsified. On the other hand, the strength of the US debt interest rate and the dollar index has disturbed the upward trend of oil prices. But in general, the trend of crude oil tightening has not changed. Due to OPEC’s cautious increase in production and the fact that the recovery of shale oil supply in the United States is subject to capital expenditure, it is difficult to match the supply end completely under the background of gradual recovery of demand after the outbreak. This pattern of supply and demand mismatch promotes the continuous de stocking of excess stock and also forms a strong support for the current price of crude oil. Before the supply and demand pattern was broken, we believe that oil prices still have space and drive to continue to rise. Therefore, we maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the crude oil end, and the unilateral price of downstream fuel oil is expected to continue to be supported by the cost side. Of course, the downside risk cannot be ignored completely at present. Both the early return of Iranian oil to the market and the substantial increase of OPEC in the next meeting are significant potential negative factors. Therefore, we do not recommend excessive chasing up for the unilateral price of crude oil and fuel oil.

In terms of the basic aspect of fuel oil, there are some marginal turning trends in the recent high and low sulfur fuel oil (low sulfur marginal turn weak, while high sulfur has stabilized). We mentioned the potential drivers of each other before, high sulfur fuel oil is the seasonal recovery of power generation demand in Middle East and other places, while low sulfur fuel oil is due to the increase in supply caused by overestimation (the previously high sulfur fuel oil cracking price difference was relatively strong in the mass oil). At present, both of these drivers have been shown, but not very obvious. In terms of high sulfur, we have seen the increase in fuel oil demand in Middle East and South Asia in recent years. In addition, the ship period data show that Saudi Arabia’s fuel oil import rebounded significantly in March (estimated import of 710000 tons in March and 440000 tons on February), but there is still room for growth from the procurement volume in peak season. From the perspective of the weak marginal shift of low sulfur fuel oil, some Asian refineries are increasing the production of low sulfur fuel oil in recent years, but the supply of China has not seen this trend (refer to the statistics of jinlianchuang in January and February, the domestic low sulfur production is about 700000 tons). In addition, since Asia, including China, will enter the period of centralized refinery maintenance in March and April, while Brazil’s export is still at a low level, we expect that the probability of significant increase in the supply of low sulfur in the short term is not very high.

In general, we believe that the unilateral price of high and low sulfur fuel oil is expected to rise further under the trend of upward crude oil end. There is no big contradiction in their basic plane at present. The trend of high and low sulfur differentiation has been significantly relieved in the early stage, but there is still insufficient driving force to reverse. Therefore, we expect that the cracking price difference of high and low sulfur fuel oil in the short term and the price difference between them may be in a partial fluctuation trend. In terms of internal market, the Fu external price difference has been in a low position in recent years. This structure is also conducive to the remaining warehouse receipts. We see that 9100 tons of warehouse receipts were cancelled last week and the total amount of warehouse receipts also dropped below 200000 tons. Referring to exchange data, inventory subtotal items also reduced 9100 tons, so these warehouse receipts may have been actually digested by the end consumer market. In the future, if the digestion process of the high sulfur fuel oil warehouse order can be smoothly carried out, the performance of Fu disk is expected to be stronger on the basis of the existing.

Strategy: Fu is cautious in one side, while Lu is more cautious;

Risk: OPEC’s future production exceeded expectations; Iran Oil returned to the market ahead of time; refinery started to rise sharply; shipping demand improved less than expected; distillate oil market performance was not expected; Lu warehouse receipts were registered in large quantities; Fu warehouse receipts were cancelled in large quantities.