After the Spring Festival, polysilicon market continued to rise, continuing the trend before the festival, and the price rose significantly this week. According to the monitoring of business news agency, polysilicon rose by 9.73% from early February to March 4. The prices of domestic and imported materials have rebounded to varying degrees, mainly due to the increasingly tight supply under the premise of increasing demand. In fact, since February, polysilicon manufacturers have maintained a high operating rate. Only one of the 11 main silicon material manufacturers has been overhauled, and the production capacity has basically reached the limit. However, the downstream silicon material manufacturers purchase significantly in large quantities, which coincides with the rising price of silicon wafer in the downstream. The continuous price increase also provides a prerequisite for the opening of silicon material price rising space. As of March 4, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the current domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with grade I solar material is 64000-68000 yuan / ton, and the tax inclusive price of polysilicon in non China region is 78000-81000 yuan / ton.

Since mid December 2020, the bottom of polycrystalline silicon has begun to rise. On the one hand, the recent production of polycrystalline silicon has not been expanded, and the rated output is about 35000 tons per month. Since the second half of last year, the new production capacity of silicon wafers in the downstream of silicon materials has been put into production one after another, and the centralized large-scale production at the purchasing end has resulted in the tight supply of polycrystalline silicon. In 2021, the market atmosphere is more positive. Both the transaction price of domestic manufacturers and the price of imported goods have a considerable upward range, especially the growth of monocrystalline silicon is more obvious, and the pattern of prosperous supply and marketing has continued to the present.

At present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has been normalized, with 100 of them started operation. In March, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers are in normal operation, especially in Sichuan, Ordos, Inner Mongolia and other regions where the plants contribute about 80% of the output. However, the current high operating rate has not led to stock accumulation. Large enterprises are in good condition to sign orders, and some large factories have signed orders in March, Some of them start to sign new orders for next month.

The rise in the price of downstream silicon wafers is the main driving force for the rise of polysilicon. As the leading silicon wafers Longji and Zhonghuan announced new brand prices one after another, the transaction price of single crystal silicon wafers rose in an all-round way. The rise in the price of silicon wafers covered the rise of silicon materials, which did not affect the shipment speed of silicon materials. At the same time, in the face of sharp increase in costs, terminal battery manufacturers are gradually planning to raise their prices. However, in the later stage, the operating rate of battery chips may be restricted by the cost, which will affect some parts of the market, which will also force the cost side to gradually recover its rationality.

The Business Association believes that in the near future, there is still room for polysilicon to go up. On the one hand, the price of silicon wafers is firm and the demand is stable; on the other hand, the inventory pressure of silicon material manufacturers is not big, and the price can still maintain high in the short term. However, on the other hand, due to the impact of power rationing in some areas a year ago, the decline of silicon output caused a shortage of supply. However, since March, with the increase of operation rate of manufacturers, silicon output will also increase, and the tight supply will become too loose. In addition, the terminal may be more and more negative to the surge of cost, so the possibility of reducing the operation rate cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is difficult for the medium and long-term polysilicon to continue to rise sharply I think it’s succeeding.

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market rose by 13.39% in February.

On March 3, 2021, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingot Market was 17436.67 yuan / ton, with a one-day increase of 2.23%; after the high callback on March 26, it went up again.

Capital driven market is obvious

On the 3rd, the main contract of aluminum futures rose by more than 4%, with obvious convergence of futures and futures rising even more. After the festival, this wave of capital driven market is obvious, and the trend of precipitation capital and non-ferrous index is the same.

The news of the US $1.9 trillion epidemic relief plan combined with the effective promotion and use of vaccines, the strengthening of the expectation of economic recovery for the better of the epidemic situation, and the expectation of infrastructure stimulus policy, helped the outbreak of the metal market.

The spot aluminum ingot price is at a historical high in recent nine years. After the festival, this wave of rapid rising market is too fast and fierce. The downstream and terminal are under great pressure. Traders wait and see more, the pressure of short-term correction increases, and the aluminum price has experienced a slight correction.

Good fundamentals expected to boost aluminum ingot price

Although the social inventory of aluminum ingots has entered the accumulation cycle, the accumulation in the Spring Festival is not much, which is lower than that in the same period of last year. In addition, the terminal demand is expected to be better, and the investment data of power grid is relatively stable. In addition, the data of real estate, household appliances and automobiles are better, and the support of aluminum consumer side is strong. After the Lantern Festival, with the rising operating rate of aluminum downstream enterprises, the consumption demand for aluminum ingots gradually recovered, and the just needed procurement began to enter the market.

Pay attention to the change of investment logic in the later stage

At present, the profit level of aluminum ingot manufacturers has increased significantly, and the profit per ton of manufacturers with better energy efficiency ratio is close to 4000 yuan. The market quotation is mainly based on macro sentiment guidance, sustainability depends on the capacity of intervention funds, and whether the investment sentiment will return to the fundamentals is the main consideration in the future. In the short term, the spot aluminum ingot price maintains the strong movement primarily.

1、 Trend analysis

After the Spring Festival, copper prices soared, once rising by more than 70000, or more than 11%. After the sharp rise, the copper price recovered nearly half of the increase. The spot copper price was 66676.67 yuan / ton, down 1.35% compared with the previous trading day, up 15.05% compared with the beginning of the year, and up 49% compared with the same period last year. LME3 copper closed at US $9025.5, up 0.05%, after a correction. Shanghai copper rebounded and narrowed its decline to close at 66780 yuan, down 0.99%, after the main callback of 65730 yuan. The main international copper contract closed at 59530 yuan, down 1.01%.

U.S. debt and U.S. dollar strengthened, market atmosphere was short, and metal prices were under pressure. According to the news, more copper concentrates are expected to flow in, and a large number of copper concentrates from Chile and Peru will be transported to Chinese ports. The number of copper concentrates is expected to increase by more than 60% month on month in March. The shortage of raw material supply for smelters may be eased, and the copper price will drop slightly. In the spot market, some traders wait and see, and the lower reaches buy at a moderate price, so the transaction is general. However, with the global economic recovery and the advent of the traditional peak season, the copper price in the future is still bullish, and it is expected to maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.

Trade name: dichloromethane

Latest price (February 2): 3636.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of dichloromethane was 3636.67 yuan / ton on the 1st, up 4.3% from the 26th. The domestic supply of dichloromethane is tight. Since February, Dongyue and Jiangxi Liwen have been overhauled. In the later period, Jinling and Dawang plan to reduce the burden. In addition to the stimulation of macro bullish atmosphere, manufacturers frequently adjust their prices. At the weekend, market prices keep rising. Some traders offer about 4000 yuan / ton.

Although the current demand situation is general, but the overall enterprise inventory is low, the supply side is tight, the price of dichloromethane will remain high and firm in the later period, and it may continue to rise in the short term.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic textile raw material market price adjustment is obvious. The spot prices of cotton, cotton yarn, chemical fiber, etc. are rising all the way. The prices of cocoon and silk varieties are also increasing significantly. The prices of raw silk are generally increased by more than 10000 yuan per ton. According to the price monitoring of the trading society, the average price of dry cocoon market is 112500 yuan / ton as of February 28, which is 4.17% higher than that of February 18 (the seventh day of the first month). The average price of raw silk was 349000 yuan / ton, up 3.71%.

In view of the sharp rise of raw materials, silk enterprises need to speed up the pressure of cost growth to the downstream terminals. At present, the difficulty of transaction has increased significantly. According to the Convention, the downstream weaving enterprises are earlier than the Silk Reeling Enterprises, and generally start work in a large area. However, most of the silk mills will start operation after January 15, Guangxi cocoon silk logistics will start ahead of schedule, but the shipment volume is less. On the one hand, most of the printing and dyeing factories have not yet entered the production state, and the quantity of the dyestuffs that can reflect the market situation is not clear; on the other hand, even if there are orders at present, they are likely to be overstocked orders before the year, and the order market after the year is still not clear.

In the international market, the export of raw silk to India is at a small peak after the Spring Festival in previous years. This year’s Spring Festival is relatively late. Since the Spring Festival, there have been few inquiries from India. In addition, affected by the epidemic, India announced on February 1 that in order to encourage its cocoon and silk industry, it would import Chinese silk products, and the tariff would be increased from 10% to 15%, and the tariff on silk and satin would be increased from 15% to 20%, which has been implemented since February 2. The costs of Indian importers have increased significantly, and the prices of related goods in the domestic market have also increased significantly. The prices of raw silk, silk and satin have generally increased by about 5-10% compared with those in January, some of which are higher, making it more difficult for the terminal to accept them.

Analysts of business news agency believe that the current high price of cocoon and silk needs to pay attention to whether it has a greater impact on the profits of downstream enterprises, whether the price / cost will be smoothly transmitted downstream, and whether it will affect the order quantity of silk fabrics and clothing, and whether it will suppress the demand side. At the same time, we need to pay attention to the export. With India’s tariff adjustment, it is expected to affect India’s enthusiasm for China’s import of raw silk in the later period.

Monthly rise of 13.39%, a new 9-year high

According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 26 was 17280 yuan / ton, up 13.39% from 15240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (February 1).

Aluminum prices soared sharply in February. On the 25th, they broke through the historical high of nearly nine years set in early December. On the 26th, they moved down slightly, still being the second historical high of nearly nine years.

The main cause of the surge

Aluminum prices rose sharply in February mainly due to the following factors:

1. Macro policy

The news of the US $1.9 trillion epidemic relief plan combined with the effective promotion and use of vaccines, the strengthening of the expectation of economic recovery for the better of the epidemic situation, and the expectation of infrastructure stimulus policy, helped the outbreak of the metal market.

On the other hand, the outbreak of inflation trading exceeded expectations, and the commodity market ushered in a strong rise cycle.

2. The proportion of water supply is high, and the output and inventory of extruded aluminum ingots are low

In January 2021, the weighted proportion of molten aluminum in the aluminum industry was 64.61%, only 3.61% lower than that of the previous month; that is to say, the monthly increase of aluminum ingots was about 120000 tons, about 180000 tons lower than that of the previous year.

At present, there is a small accumulation of social inventory, and it is more than 1 million tons after the festival, which is in line with the market expectation; after the festival, the accumulated inventory of the factory is 114700-235500 tons, which is relatively small.

3. Production capacity control

According to market news, Inner Mongolia will implement capacity control on electrolytic aluminum with high energy consumption because it fails to achieve the goal of “double control” of energy consumption. It is rumored that electrolytic aluminum plants in eastern Inner Mongolia may reduce production because the overall energy consumption of the autonomous region is not up to standard in 2020. According to feedback from information sources, Jinlian, HuoMei and other electrolytic aluminum plants will initially plan to reduce production in the nature of maintenance, which may affect the annual production capacity in eastern Inner Mongolia in October About 10000 tons.

Since late January, the market of bisphenol A has soared to a new peak in the chemical industry sector. After the Spring Festival, bisphenol A has entered a new peak in the year of the ox. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, in 2021, the market of bisphenol a rose from 13225 yuan / ton on January 1 to 24666 yuan / ton on February 25, an increase of 87%. Since the afternoon of the 24th, the market has entered a quiet period. Although the market is slightly loose on the 25th, it is still at a high level, and it is difficult to go down later.

Before the festival, the main reason for bisphenol A’s “bull market” was the lack of market supply and the warming demand. After the sharp rise and fall in 2020, the market supply is extremely tight. At this time, the expected improvement of the downstream epoxy resin industry is mainly driven by the rise of resin after the wind power makes up for the fall. Before the festival, the bisphenol a market is greatly higher, reaching a high of 19000 yuan / ton near the Spring Festival. However, there are many uncertain factors after the Spring Festival, and most traders dare not stock, while factories are not Most of the production is in the supporting downstream devices, and the external sales volume is limited. After the Spring Festival, the market of bisphenol A has reached a new high in the past ten years. The main reasons are as follows:

First of all, the most important thing is the surge of crude oil during the holiday, coupled with the extremely cold weather in the United States, which forced more than 50 enterprises to stop production unexpectedly. In February, international crude oil futures continued to rise. As of February 25, WTI crude oil rose by 21.11% and Brent crude oil rose by 20.24%. At present, the international oil price has reached a new high in nearly 13 months. Oil prices continue to rise. At the macro level, there is pressure from the depreciation of the US dollar. At the micro level, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) continue to spare no effort to limit production, and the US commercial crude oil inventory has declined for several consecutive weeks. All these pave the way for the rise of oil prices. On the demand side, on the one hand, affected by the epidemic situation, vaccination has been promoted, and the economic recovery is expected to continue to heat up. In the past two weeks, the United States has been hit by snowstorms. Under the influence of extremely cold weather, the refinery units in Texas have been shut down. The rapid decline of production has gradually evolved into a short-term energy crisis, which has also accelerated the pace of oil price rise.

Secondly, from the perspective of cost, the consumption rate of phenol in the production unit of bisphenol A accounts for 0.87, the production cost of bisphenol A accounts for a large proportion, and the price of bisphenol A is strongly supported by the upward trend of phenol after the festival. After the Spring Festival, the first day of the bill rose sharply, affected by the holiday crude oil surge, the first working day after the festival, all products are making a good start, the market heat is rising, especially in the chemical industry circle, the price rise information has opened a variety of screen mode. Entering the year of the ox, the phenol market has been growing all the way to new heights. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the phenol Market offer was 6675 yuan / ton on February 17. So far, the phenol Market offer was 8587 yuan / ton, an increase of 28.65%. Moreover, the plant is also making constant efforts. After the festival, Sinopec’s North China phenol has been increased by nearly 2000 yuan / ton, and the East China phenol plant has increased by 1600 yuan / ton, implementing 8500 yuan / ton. The East China plant’s offer has increased from 6790 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton, an increase of 25%. Acetone, another important raw material, has gone through a wave of upward trend before the festival. After the festival, the guiding price of acetone in North China of Sinopec has been increased by 1200 yuan / ton, while that in East China has been increased by 900-1200 yuan / ton, and 9000-9300 yuan / ton has been implemented. Raw materials continue to rise, cost side support bisphenol a market continues to rise.

On the demand side, first, the downstream epoxy resin continued to be supported by the terminal wind power industry, and continued to march forward. As of February 25, the negotiated price of liquid resin in East China reached 31000 yuan / ton, up 16.8% compared with 26500 yuan / ton on February 17. Solid resin is also on the rise, with the guiding price of 26500 yuan / ton. With the support of raw materials and the demand of downstream wind power and coating industry, the epoxy resin factory has been in the state of suspension of offer, and has been focusing on historical order production. Second, the downstream PC products. On the whole, the industry started at 60%. After the restart of Dafeng device, the operation was stable, and the raw materials rose sharply before the festival. However, this product is difficult to digest. Most factories are short of raw materials. After the festival, the raw materials continue to rise, and the PC upward speed lags behind, but it also keeps rising with the pace. On the whole, the rigid demand procurement is the main, and the transaction activity still needs to be improved.

From the perspective of the whole phenol ketone industry chain, the overall rise was the main trend. The upstream pure benzene and propylene showed a significant upward trend after the festival, followed by the intermediate and downstream products. From the macro point of view, WTI crude oil increased by 21.11%, Brent crude oil increased by 20.24%, and the surge of crude oil after the festival formed a good support for petrochemical products.

From the perspective of business community, bisphenol A is extremely dazzling among many rising chemicals. From the surge of crude oil during the holidays to the extremely cold weather in the United States, from the surge of phenol ketone industry chain as a whole to the frequent rise of major products in the chemical industry circle, the market of bisphenol a has reached a ten-year high. At present, on the one hand, the arrival time of import and export goods is delayed, and the profit contracts of factories are cleaned up near the end of the month. On the other hand, the downstream market is facing a new situation It will take time to digest, and the market of bisphenol A will stay for a short time. However, in March, Taiwan Changchun and South Asia bisphenol A have maintenance plans, and the market circulation spot resources are limited, while the import source is delayed. The market spot resources are still tight in March. The business community expects that there will be high consolidation or continue to push up in March. However, from the perspective of the downstream, the current downstream cost pressure is huge, the loss is serious, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the risk is increasing In addition, the downstream market demand and acceptance of the industrial chain will determine the bisphenol a market.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market was active in late February, and the spot price rose rapidly recently. As of February 24, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 15333.33 yuan / ton, 20.73% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

Upstream, domestic caprolactam market is also rising. The price of pure benzene rose continuously, which strongly supported the cost of caprolactam. Affected by the cold weather in the United States, many refineries shut down. Crude oil and chemicals rose sharply, supporting the domestic market. At the same time, caprolactam supply has not been substantially improved, the fundamentals are good, and the market direction is clear. Caprolactam market is expected to continue optimistic trend.

Raw material caprolactam market is strong, the cost of PA6 support is strong. As early as before the festival, the demand for PA6 chips rose due to the small peak of stock preparation before the festival, and there was no pressure on the inventory of polymerization plants, and some of them oversold. Under the influence of local new year’s promotion, the downstream industry resumed work rapidly after the new year, especially the spinning enterprises’ demand for PA6 started ahead of time. Coupled with the shortage of international chemicals supply, the current bulk commodity prices are stronger, which generally boost the product prices of the plasticizing industry chain.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in late February, the domestic market of PA6 was strong, and the main positive impact came from the strong market of raw material caprolactam. The cost of PA6 was stable and strong. The strong external market PA6 also boosted the domestic spot price. In addition to the current inflation expectations in the macro market, the price of PA6 is expected to continue to rise.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the domestic cobalt price is rising after the festival, and the cobalt market is soaring. As of February 23, the cobalt price was 381333.34 yuan / ton, up 14.92% from 331833.34 yuan / ton on February 9. The cobalt price quoted by some businesses exceeded 40000 yuan / ton, and the cobalt market entered the “four times”.

MB cobalt price after the festival

Time ﹣ category ﹣ specification ﹣ lowest price ﹣ rise and fall ﹣ highest price ﹣ rise and fall ﹣ unit

February 9 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22 ﹣ 0.25 ﹣ 22.35 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

February 9 – alloy grade cobalt 22 0.25 22.3 0 USD / lb

February 10 – standard cobalt 22.0 22.35.0 USD / lb

February 10 – alloy grade cobalt $22.0 $22.3 $0 / lb

February 11 – standard cobalt 22.25 0.25 22.75 0.4 USD / lb

February 11 – alloy grade cobalt 22.25 0.25 22.75 0.45 USD / lb

February 12 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 0.25 ﹣ 22.75 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

February 12 – alloy grade cobalt 22.5 0.25 22.75 0 USD / lb

February 15 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.75 ﹣ 0.25 ﹣ 23.15 ﹣ 0.4 ﹣ USD / lb

February 15 – alloy grade cobalt 22.75 0.25 23.15 0.4 USD / pound

February 16 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.25 ﹣ 23.15 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

February 16 – alloy grade cobalt 22.25-23.15-0 USD / lb

February 17 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.9 ﹣ 0.15 ﹣ 23.35 ﹣ 0.2 ﹣ USD / lb

February 17 – alloy grade cobalt 23 0.25 23.7 0.55 USD / lb

February 18 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.95 ﹣ 0.05 ﹣ 23.75 ﹣ 0.4 ﹣ USD / lb

February 18 – alloy grade cobalt 23.0 23.7 0 USD / lb

February 19 – standard cobalt 23 0.05 23.75 0 USD / lb

February 19 – alloy grade cobalt 23 0 23.75 0.05 USD / lb

February 22 – standard cobalt 23.5-0.5-24-0.25 USD / lb

February 22 – alloy grade cobalt 23.5-0.5-24-0.25 USD / lb

It can be seen from the price list of MB cobalt that since the Spring Festival, the quotation of MB standard grade cobalt has increased from $22-22.35/pound on February 10 to $23.5-24/pound on February 22; the quotation of alloy grade cobalt has increased from $22-22.3/pound on February 10 to $23.5-24/pound on February 22. The sharp rise of international cobalt price stimulates the rise of domestic cobalt price, and the rising power of domestic cobalt market increases.

General rise of nonferrous plate drives cobalt market up

It can be seen from the bar chart of the nonferrous metal index of the business association that the nonferrous metal index rose sharply after the festival, and the market of nonferrous metal plate rose generally, which led to the rise of cobalt price.

High nickel price inhibits cobalt free battery

As can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart of nickel price of the business community, except for the first quarter of 2020 when the nickel price was affected by the epidemic, the nickel price rose generally in the second, third and fourth quarters. In 2020, the nickel price rose by 12.66%, compared with the cobalt price rose by 2.31% in the same period. The nickel price rose significantly, and the rising nickel price increased the cost of cobalt free ternary battery, which was less than expected in the market With the increase of expectation, the rising power of cobalt price increases.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that the general rise of nonferrous plate drives the rise of cobalt market, and the sharp rise of international cobalt price stimulates the further rise of domestic cobalt price. In February, cobalt price ushered in a small peak and entered the four times of cobalt market. In the long run, 3C businesses such as new energy vehicles and mobile phones are prominent, and there is sufficient demand in the cobalt market. However, the promotion of cobalt free batteries is less than expected, and the demand in the cobalt market is expected to increase. On the supply side, Africa is affected by the epidemic, and the supply is limited, so the risk of insufficient supply is high, and the risk of insufficient supply is high Cobalt market has sufficient momentum to rise. There is a huge room for cobalt price to rise. Generally speaking, the risk of short-term cobalt price decline is large, and the long-term cobalt market has sufficient momentum. Cobalt – worth long-term possession.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of February 23, the average price of domestic power high-grade product lithium iron phosphate was 42000.00 yuan / ton. After the festival, the price of lithium iron phosphate rose widely. Due to the rising raw materials, lithium iron phosphate rose passively, with a daily increase of 1000 yuan / ton.

Due to the soaring price of upstream lithium carbonate, the price of LiFePO4 rises passively, the purchase of raw materials is cautious, and the bullish atmosphere is strong. The price range of LiFePO4 power type market is 42000-46000 yuan / ton. At present, the price range of energy storage type LiFePO4 is 38000-40000 yuan / ton, and the inventory is normal. The negotiation atmosphere is general, and the new orders have increased. Most of them are contract customers, while the upstream lithium carbonate industry is not The price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 73000-76000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate is 77000-79000 yuan / ton. In the short term, it will maintain a high level, and the rising space is limited. It is mainly used in new energy vehicles, energy storage and other fields, among which the new energy vehicle industry is the largest one. In recent years, the market development of LiFePO4 battery is slower than that of ternary lithium battery due to the weakness of battery life. According to the statistics of China Battery Industry Association, the output of lithium iron phosphate materials for lithium batteries in China in 2020 is only about 143000 tons.

On February 22, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 185.99, up 1.02 points from yesterday, down 54.09% from 405.10 points (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 88.75% from 98.54 points, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Business community LiFePO4 analysts believe that: in the short term to maintain a high level of operation, rising space is limited.