In March 2026, the global cobalt market showed a trend of “high-level solidification and narrow range oscillation”, with domestic spot and overseas futures prices overall maintaining high levels. The core is influenced by multiple factors such as the implementation of quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand structural differentiation, and macro logistics costs. Short term fluctuations have not changed the core logic of tight supply and easy price increases but difficult price decreases in the medium and long term. The specific market situation is as follows:
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Cobalt prices fluctuate and fall from high levels in March
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on April 1st was 426000 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 2.89% compared to the cobalt price of 438700 yuan/ton on March 1st. In March, the overall domestic cobalt spot price remained in a high range, showing a trend of “stabilizing at a high level and narrowing volatility”, with obvious seller led characteristics. In March, the domestic spot price of cobalt mainly operated in the range of 429000 to 433000 yuan/ton, with limited fluctuations and no unilateral market trend. At the same time, the ex factory price of domestic cobalt sulfate (20.5%) remained stable at 96000-98000 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the end of February, and the seller’s quotation remained firm; The price of imported cobalt hydroxide (30%) has remained stable at $25.6-26.8 per pound throughout the month, and the fundamentals of extremely tight raw material supply have not loosened.
Overseas markets: narrow fluctuations, prices tend to stabilize
The London Metal Exchange (LME) cobalt contract showed a narrow range of fluctuations and overall high-level stabilization in March, with weak trading activity. Throughout March, the fluctuation range of LME cobalt prices slightly increased compared to before, mainly fluctuating around the range of $55840-56290/ton, with minimal daily fluctuations. Most trading days opened and closed at the same price. As of March 28th, LME cobalt futures closed flat at $56290 per ton; On March 30th, LME three-month cobalt remained at a high level without significant fluctuations, with a slight upward trend compared to the beginning of the month. The fluctuation range was controlled within 1%, and there were no obvious unilateral upward or downward driving factors.
Core driving factors of the market trend
Supply side: The long-term tight pattern has not changed, with short-term partial easing
In March, the cobalt supply side showed a characteristic of “long-term rigid tightness and short-term lack of substantial easing”, which was significantly influenced by the policies of major producing countries, geopolitical events, and logistics costs. From a long-term core logic perspective, the global cobalt supply is hard constrained by the export quota of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The export quota for 2026 is only 96600 tons, a decrease of 55% from the actual supply in 2024. It is expected that the local effective supply will only account for less than 40% of the production, resulting in a continued tight supply of cobalt raw materials worldwide. In March, Congo (Kinshasa) introduced new sampling regulations that allow companies to “ship while in dispute” during testing disputes. However, this adjustment is only for technical process optimization and does not change the rigid constraint of the total quota. The market response to this was lukewarm and did not trigger a price correction. On March 31st, the mining regulatory agency of the Democratic Republic of Congo issued new regulations requiring companies to use up their unused export quotas for the fourth quarter of 2025 before April 30th. Any unused quotas beyond the deadline will be confiscated and transferred to strategic reserves. At the same time, it is clarified that quotas for the first quarter of 2026 can be extended until June 30th for shipment. This measure aims to stabilize supply, but does not change the tight supply pattern in the short term.
From the perspective of short-term supply in March, some domestic smelting enterprises have slightly released their production capacity, and the arrival of overseas cobalt raw materials has increased to a certain extent. The production rhythm of domestic smelting plants is normal, and the supply of cobalt salt and electrolytic cobalt spot is relatively sufficient. Combined with the gradual release of some inventory in the market, it has temporarily eased the pressure of supply shortage. The core pattern of rigid tightening of global cobalt supply has not changed: the arrival time of intermediate cobalt products at domestic ports has been delayed, social inventories have dropped to historical lows, and can only support consumption for a few weeks. The problem of raw material shortage in smelters has not been fundamentally solved; Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict led to a surge of over 35% in global container freight rates in March, significantly increasing the trade costs of cobalt raw materials and products, further strengthening the cost support of prices. The long-term strategic procurement agreement between Gree and Glencore continues to be fulfilled. In 2026, Glencore will supply 14400 tons of crude cobalt hydroxide raw materials to Gree, which will to some extent stabilize the raw material supply of some domestic smelting enterprises.
Demand side: Overall moderate growth, short-term temporary weakness
Power battery demand: As the top pillar of cobalt demand (accounting for 43%), the growth rate of global new energy vehicle demand will decline in 2026, while the proportion of ternary batteries will decrease significantly. It is expected that the annual demand for cobalt in power batteries will be 124000 tons, an increase of 24% compared to 2024. In March, domestic new energy power battery companies were still in the stage of destocking, and the pace of capacity release for ternary batteries was slow. The demand for cobalt raw materials did not meet expectations, and most of them relied on replenishing inventory as needed, making it difficult to support the upward trend of cobalt prices.
Consumer electronics demand: accounting for 30% of cobalt demand, affected by extended replacement cycles and chip drag, may face overall negative growth in 2026, but AI smartphones AI PC、 The wave of replacement brought by foldable screens and other products is expected to result in a demand for 77000 tons of cobalt for consumer electronics throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 10%. However, the demand in the consumer electronics market remained flat in March, and downstream companies showed a strong wait-and-see attitude towards price cutting, further weakening the purchasing demand for cobalt.
Other demands: Traditional and emerging fields such as energy storage, high-temperature alloys, and hard alloys account for 27% of the demand. It is expected that the demand for cobalt will reach 73000 tons by 2026, a year-on-year increase of 11%. Emerging fields such as humanoid robots and large-scale energy storage power stations are gradually opening up long-term growth space, but there was no concentrated release of this demand in March, which has limited support for the short-term market.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the core feature of the cobalt market in March 2026 is that “the long-term strong foundation has not changed, and the short-term supply and demand structural differentiation has led to narrow fluctuations”. The price has not experienced a significant correction, mainly due to the rigid constraints of the supply side and the rigid support of logistics costs. The short-term fluctuations are the result of the structural differentiation of supply and demand, macro sentiment, and profit taking.
In the future, the short-term cobalt price is likely to fluctuate and fall within a narrow range, but it is difficult to see a one-sided market trend. The subsequent price trend needs to focus on three core variables: first, the actual implementation efficiency of Congo (Kinshasa) export quotas, especially the implementation of quota usage in the fourth quarter of 2025 before April 30. The possibility of concentrated shipments by enterprises is increasing, and it is expected that the cobalt market will experience short-term supply loosening in April; The second is the progress of downstream demand recovery, as well as the inventory digestion of new energy battery and consumer electronics enterprises; Thirdly, there are geopolitical conflicts and changes in logistics costs. If the Middle East conflict continues to push up shipping costs, it will further strengthen the cost support of prices. Short term supply is expected to concentrate, and the recovery of shipping demand is limited. Coupled with strengthened transportation cost support, cobalt prices are likely to fluctuate slightly and fall back in April.
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