Supply continues to decrease, aniline price rises (2021.6.14-6.18)

1、 Price trend

Aniline stopped falling and rose this week, with prices rising in a row, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On June 11, the price of Shandong Province was 8800-9100 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9000 yuan / T / T, and on June 18, the price in Shandong is 9400-9580 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9600 yuan / T / T, with the average price up 5.58% compared with last week, 3.65% higher than the beginning of the month, 19.83% higher than the beginning of the year, up 108.82% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene rose this week and then fluctuated and consolidated, and Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was stable, with the price of 7750 yuan / ton. The domestic price of pure benzene has been rising continuously, boosted by the continuous increase of crude oil and low inventory of pure benzene port. The inventory of benzene in East China main port fell below 80000 tons in the week. But at present, most downstream products are in loss, followed up by the slowdown of pure benzene, limiting the increase. On Sunday (June 20), the price of pure benzene was 7603-7800 yuan / ton (average price: 7750 yuan / ton), and the average price rose 60 yuan / ton, or 0.78% compared with last week; It was 112.33 per cent higher than the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid continued to rise this week, with the production price of nitric acid in East China on Friday (June 18) at 2300 yuan / ton, up 1.47% from last week, up 58.62% from the same period last year.

Some devices in the site maintain load reduction operation. During the Dragon Boat Festival, Jinling aniline plant was put into parking and maintenance, and it is expected that the supply in the site will continue to decrease on about 10 days. With the support of the good, aniline prices continued to rise.

3、 Post market expectations

On the cost side, the international side, the recovery prospect of crude oil is better; The price of the external market is fluctuating. At home, the pre maintenance of pure benzene plant is restarted, supply or gradually rising, but the supply in the field is still in a tight situation in the short term. Downstream: some downstream products are losing money, and their enthusiasm for benzene follow-up is not high. In general, it is expected that the pure benzene will continue to vibrate next week, with the possibility of falling.

There are many load reduction operation or parking maintenance devices in the site, and the maintenance plan of Shanxi Tianji aniline plant is expected to continue to decrease. However, Wanhua chemical has plans to invest in MDI supporting aniline plant, and market demand for aniline is under pressure. In general, there is still upward space for aniline in the short term, but it is possible to decline under the constraints of downstream demand. Continue to focus on the trend of raw material surface, downstream demand follow-up and aniline plant dynamics.