Entering the off-season, PVC market price gradually declines

According to the data monitored by the business society (the average price of SG5 by the calcium carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on June 17 was 9087.5 yuan / ton, down 0.27% from the previous day, 0.41% lower than the beginning of the week, 1.76% on month, up 43.39% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After the Dragon Boat Festival, PVC market continued to weaken, futures prices fell more than 2% on 17, driving the trend of spot prices. The enterprises cut about 50-100 yuan / ton in a day, and prices in different regions were lowered by different ranges. The quotation was mostly in the range of 9150-9250 yuan / ton, with the overall focus slightly moving down, but the price was still high. At present, the price of raw materials calcium carbide has risen by 12% in June, and the cost side support is stronger. Therefore, PVC is difficult to fall sharply. However, the downstream enters the off-season, the demand side is expected to weaken, and downstream industries are mostly in the wait-and-see form, and continue to maintain the purchase just needed, and the carrier can make profit and deliver goods, so there is a certain space for negotiation. In the short term, PVC market is more adhesive, the price is mainly narrow fluctuation, and the future market is difficult to be optimistic.

In spot, the main quotation range of pvc5 type electric stone is 9150-9250 yuan / ton. Hangzhou area pvc5 type electric stone interval 9140-9200 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 type electric stone in Changzhou area is 9150-9200 yuan / ton; The main price of PVC common electrical stone in Guangzhou is 9200-9250 yuan / ton; The market has been down in all regions.

In futures, futures prices have fallen recently, and the prices of spot markets are down. June 17 v2109 contract opening price: 8705, the highest price: 8735, the lowest price: 8530, position: 378085, settlement price: 8635, yesterday settlement: 8770, down 135.

region technology June 17th June 11th Up and down remarks

East China Electrostone method 9030-9140 yuan / ton 9250-9280 yuan / ton – 220/140 Delivery

south China Electrostone method 9170-9250 yuan / ton 9200-9300 yuan / ton – 30/50 Delivery

North China Electrostone method 8980-9080 yuan / ton 9100-9200 yuan / ton – 120/120 To

southwest Electrostone method RMB 9000-9150 / T 9100-9250 yuan / ton – 100/100 To

International crude oil, June 16, international oil prices closed up slightly, the settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $72.15/barrel, or 0.03 USD. Brent crude oil futures market main contract settlement price at $74.39/barrel, up $0.40 or 0.50%. The US gasoline inventory rose last week, limiting the power of oil prices, according to inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday.

Ethylene, June 16, European ethylene market market, FD northwest Europe quoted 1261-1274 USD / T, up $1 / T, CIF northwest Europe quotation 1210-1221 USD / T, down 2 USD / T. On June 16, the US ethylene market, FD US Bay quoted us $594-607 / T, up $16.5/t, and the recent U.S. ethylene market rose, with good demand. On June 16, the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $897-905 / T, down $15 / T, CFR Southeast Asia quotation of $857-865 / T, down $15 / T. Recently, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly stable. Ethylene market may be mainly higher in the late period of high crude oil price.

The factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable on June 17, with the reference price of calcium carbide at 4683.33, up 12.4% compared with that of June 1 (4166.67). The price of upstream orchid carbon rose slightly, cost support was better, and the downstream PVC market was in high position consolidation, and the demand for calcium carbide was higher. The electricity market in the back market rose slightly.

3、 Post market forecast

PVC analysts of business agency believe that PVC market continued to weaken after the festival, supported by cost side, PVC fell deeply. With the downstream entering the off-season, the demand side is expected to weaken, and PVC market is expected to run in a short period of time, and the price or the price will continue to decline.