1、 Price trend

Recently, the LNG market has risen sharply, which has reached more than 7000 yuan / ton. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 5366 yuan / ton on December 11, 31.75% higher than that at the beginning of the month, 52.9% month on month, and 29.32% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China has risen by 30% in half a month. Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and other places have already risen to more than 7000 yuan / ton. On the 14th, the daily rise rate reached more than 1000 yuan. It can be said that it is crazy. Most liquid plants have no quotation for the time being, limited delivery, market quotation is chaotic, and most transactions are mainly through negotiation. With the sudden drop of temperature, the demand for urban gas has increased significantly. In order to ensure the people’s livelihood, there are many gas limiting and stopping production enterprises this week. The overall operating rate of the market is less than 30%. The supply has been greatly tightened, and the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, so that the liquid price has risen sharply. In order to maintain market order, Shaanxi took the lead in reducing the price by 1000 yuan on the 15th. However, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to change in a short period of time. The price of liquefied natural gas is still at a high level and the trend is strong.

Data show that natural gas continues to maintain a rapid growth. The import of natural gas has changed from increase to decrease. In November, the production of natural gas was 16.9 billion cubic meters, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, 0.1% lower than that of the previous month; the daily output of natural gas was 560 million cubic meters, an increase of 30 million cubic meters on a month on month basis. From January to November, 170.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. In November, 9.18 million tons of natural gas were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% and an increase of 16.1% last month. From January to November, 90.44 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 3.9% year on year.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of December 17, the price has increased significantly compared with the beginning of the month. The average price in Inner Mongolia is around 6850 yuan / ton, which is about 2700 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. The average price in Shaanxi is around 7500 yuan / ton, which is about 2950 yuan / ton. The average price in Shanxi is around 7350 yuan / ton, which is 2800 yuan / ton. In Ningxia, the average price is about 2850 yuan / ton In Henan Province, the average price was around 3200 yuan / ton, and the liquid price increased significantly.

Regional specification quotation (yuan / ton) date

Inner Mongolia LNG 4950-6990 December 17

Shaanxi LNG 6850-7500 December 17

Hebei LNG 6000-6300 December 17

Shanxi LNG 6750-7370 December 17

Henan LNG 7200-7700 December 17

For downstream methanol, the domestic methanol market has continued to rise in recent years, and some manufacturers have increased their ex factory quotations by about 50-80 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 15, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2210 yuan / ton, with the price rising by 4.12% on a month on month basis and 4.25% on a year-on-year basis. Business community methanol analysts predict that the short-term domestic methanol market behavior.

On the one hand, the prices in Shandong and Hebei have remained firm for some time, and the supply pressure is not great. On the other hand, some orders from Northeast China may be accepted in the future, and the ammonia quantity in the region may decline, which may lead to an upward price.

Urea market in Shandong Province fluctuated in the first ten days of December. According to urea analysts of the business club, the current agricultural demand has been followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the industrial demand is purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

As of December 16, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3610 yuan / ton, up 7.12% compared with the beginning of the month and 16.45% higher than the same period of last month. At present, the overall supply of the industry is limited. With the decline of liquid chlorine price, enterprises in Shandong may start to recover, while the downstream market just needs to be flat. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will be stable and firm in a short time. Pay attention to the changes of liquid chlorine price of raw materials.

3、 Future forecast

With the sharp decline in the supply and demand of natural gas, analysts believe that the supply and demand of liquefied gas in the city is still strong, and the supply and demand of natural gas is still strong.

According to the statistics of business agency, as of December 16, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was 16766 yuan / ton, which was 500 yuan / ton higher than the price at the beginning of the month, 3.07% or 0.40% higher than that at the beginning of the month; the price of nylon POY was 14320 yuan / ton, up 560 yuan / ton, up 4.07%, down 0.28%; the price of nylon FDY was 17700 yuan / ton, down 1.92% year-on-year.

Boosted by the good news of the new crown vaccine, the market placed expectations on a rebound in fuel demand. At the same time, the news of oil well attack in Iraq kept the crude oil price on a strong trend. As of December 15, WTI crude oil price settlement price was 47.62 USD / barrel, 6.89% higher than the price at the beginning of December. In December, cyclohexanone delivery was significantly hindered, and the crude oil prices of cyclohexanone rose in a strong way. The operating rate of caprolactam is still not high, while the operating rate of PA6 is still acceptable, and the supply of caprolactam is tight. Last week, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam price was raised by 300 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton. At present, PA6 is at a high level. Downstream factories are against high price goods. Replenishment operation is cautious and tends to operate stably.

The price of nylon filament is generally raised. On the one hand, textile orders have picked up. The fundamental reason is that the price of raw materials is firm, the cost remains high, and there is a possibility of strong operation in the short term. The price increases range from 300 to 800 yuan / ton. Considering the tight supply of caprolactam and the price of PA6 does not decrease, the price of nylon has been shifted upward. It is worth noting that near the end of the year, the demand of textile enterprises to replenish the stock market has some support. Under the premise of stabilizing the raw material end, nylon market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Business agency analysts believe that crude oil prices remain high, caprolactam operating rate is not high, tight supply. Raw material prices remain firm, and trade consumption is expected to pick up, and nylon is expected to run in a stable and strong position.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was stable. Compared with the domestic hydrogen oxide industry, the average price of hydrogen oxide fell to 88.00 yuan in the first 12 months, which was the same as that of domestic enterprises.

In recent years, the upstream lithium carbonate market has risen, the cost support has risen, the downstream high nickel demand has steadily increased, which has driven the market inventory digestion, and the new investment enterprises have gradually increased the volume, the market capacity is sufficient, and the market is stable. At present, the quotation of Shanghai Yulun industrial industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; Zigong tongfarong industrial industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; Shanghai oujin industrial industrial industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 50000 yuan / ton, and anhydrous lithium hydroxide is 99000 yuan / ton. The specific delivery price is discussed in a single way.

The upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of the business agency: this week (12.7-12.11), the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. In recent days, the price of industrial carbon and electric carbon have increased and fluctuated by 1000 yuan / ton. On December 11, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 45600 yuan / ton, up 1.79% compared with the beginning of the week. On December 1, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 48700 yuan / ton, up 0.83% compared with the beginning of the week.

On December 13, the commodity price index of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 91.54, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 23.22% from the lowest point of 74.29 on September 20, 2020. (Note: the period refers to January 1, 2013 to now)

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 49 th week (12.7-12.11) of 2020, there were 36 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 5 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 5.4% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were acetic acid (14.06%), nitric acid (13.16%) and maleic anhydride (10.45%). There were 22 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 3.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; the top three products were phthalic anhydride (- 6.82%), styrene (- 6.40%), propylene glycol (- 5.33%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.63%.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the recent upward trend in the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream and the increase in downstream demand have a certain support for the price of lithium hydroxide, but the market supply is sufficient to contain it. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

1、 Trend analysis

On the 14th, the spot copper price was 57950 yuan / ton, down 0.47% from the previous day, 18.18% higher than the beginning of the year, and 18.09% higher than that of the previous day. Today, LME3 copper rose in the early trading, and the Asian market closed at $7800, up 0.35%. The main trend of copper in Shanghai was weak today, with the lowest closing at 57220 yuan and the last closing at 57850 yuan, down 0.52%.

As the prospect of brexit without an agreement has hit the market sentiment, the US stimulus plan negotiation is deadlocked again, the smelter has the possibility of year-end momentum, and the tight situation of scrap copper will gradually ease, and the trend of copper price is weak today. In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory fell by 8000 tons last week, and the inventory in the previous period decreased by 16000 tons to 82000 tons, and the inventory in China’s bonded area decreased slightly by 2000 tons. London Metal Exchange (LME) on December 11, London copper’s latest inventory of 146325 tons, a decrease of 1500 tons, or 1.01%, from the previous trading day. At present, although the domestic electrolytic copper production has increased significantly, the demand is still improved, and the depolarization will continue. It is expected that the copper price will continue to fall, and there is little room for copper price to continue to fall.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, after the national day, the hydrogen peroxide market rose by 35% in October. In November, the market of hydrogen peroxide gradually fell by 10%. In December, the market of hydrogen peroxide was on the rise again. As of December 14, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1370 yuan / ton, which was 4.58% higher than that in early December and 27.64% higher than that in early October.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2019 to November 2020, it can be seen that in 2019, hydrogen peroxide performed strongly in the first half of the year, rising for four consecutive months, with the highest increase of 24.29%. In the second half of the year, the performance of hydrogen peroxide was average, only two months was rising, and the largest increase of hydrogen peroxide was close to 40% in August. In the fourth quarter, hydrogen peroxide rose 25% in October, and fell more than 10% in November and December.

The hydrogen peroxide Market in the first 11 months of 2020 is weaker than that in 2019. In the first half of the year, the hydrogen peroxide market fell for four months in a row, and rose only 0.9% in January. The price of hydrogen peroxide rose 32% in June compared with that in 2019. Hydrogen peroxide in the second half of the year is similar to that in 2019. In October, hydrogen peroxide still rose sharply. This year, it rose by 35%, which was the highest in the whole year. In November, it dropped by nearly 10%. After nearly half a month in December, hydrogen peroxide has increased by 4.58%

Terminal caprolactam performance strong, hydrogen peroxide prices continue to rise

After the national day, the hydrogen peroxide market went through a short consolidation period. At the end of the month, due to the centralized maintenance of manufacturers and tight supply, plus the terminal caprolactam market and rigid demand support, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers raised the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide one after another. The market began to rise sharply in the middle of the month, with an increase of more than 35%. After Jinjiu, silver ten was ushered.

Since November, due to the fact that hydrogen peroxide rose by 35% in October, the price was at a high level, and the market acceptance was low. In addition, the stock market of terminal paper industry ended on November 11, the demand turned weak, and the promotion effect of caprolactam market was limited. The hydrogen peroxide market began to dive from high platform and fell sharply. In the last ten days of November, the market of hydrogen peroxide gradually stabilized. Throughout November, the price of hydrogen peroxide dropped nearly 10%,

In December, the market of terminal caprolactam was on the rise. The enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide increased. The inventory of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers was at a low level. In addition, the price of hydrogen peroxide began to recover and the market continued to rise. As of December 14, the price of hydrogen peroxide had increased by 4.58% compared with the beginning of the month.

On December 14, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 180.44, down 0.15 points compared with yesterday, 17.65% lower than 219.12 points (October 27, 2020), and 100.82% higher than 89.85 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to the present)

The price of caprolactam began to rise after a small fluctuation in early October. Caprolactam inventory decreased and supply decreased. Raw material pure benzene rose, downstream demand for caprolactam increased, upstream and downstream strong support, caprolactam prices rose. At the end of the month, the downstream demand weakened and the market gradually stabilized. Caprolactam rose 5% throughout October.

In November, the price of caprolactam rose sharply due to the rise of raw material pure benzene, and the shortage of manufacturers’ parking for maintenance. As a result, the price of caprolactam rose strongly and kept rising. Near the end of the month, the favorable factors were digested by the market, and the increase of Caprolactam market was limited. The price of caprolactam rose nearly 7% in November, which was better than that in October.

Since December, the cost side of the supply side is double positive, the price of caprolactam is rising, and the operating rate is general. Shandong Haili is still in the process of parking for maintenance and has not been restarted. In the overhaul of orchid scientific innovation, the supply is tight, and the operating rate of downstream PA6 is better. Lido support, caprolactam factory generally increased the ex factory price, the market rose half a month, as of the 14th, caprolactam price rose more than 5%. The market of terminal caprolactam rose sharply, the demand for hydrogen peroxide recovered, and manufacturers were confident in supporting prices, and the hydrogen peroxide market rose one after another.

Li Bing, an analyst with hydrogen peroxide in business, said: “hydrogen peroxide market has recovered in December, and caprolactam is awesome, so hydrogen peroxide is expected to continue to rise.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price rose slightly on the 14th. The spot nickel price was 132750 yuan / ton, up 1.84% compared with the previous trading day, 16.72% higher than the beginning of the year, and 19.49% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel opened at 128700 yuan, and the price rose smoothly after the opening, closing at 130930 yuan, up 1.30%. LME3 nickel closed at $17600, up 1.53%.

2、 Market analysis

In the rainy season, the Philippines is in short supply of nickel ore, the inventory of refined nickel is declining and the demand for battery grade nickel is improving. In addition, the demand for stainless steel has been stable since this year, and the market performance is weak outside and strong inside. In November 2020, the domestic electrolytic nickel production was 12167 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.72%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.33%. In November, the operating rate of domestic electrolytic nickel smelting was 70.33%, slightly lower than that of 71.56% of the previous month. At present, the production and operation of refineries in production will maintain normal state, and the short-term output may not be further expanded due to the influence of demand off-season at the end of the year.

Future forecast: nickel price is expected to be strong in the near future.

This week, the acetone market opened in a weak position. The supply was expected to increase significantly, but the demand was still dominated by rigid demand. The pressure of the shipholders increased and the price was reduced. The market offer fell to 8100-8200 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the port is expected to increase the arrival volume; on the other hand, Ningbo Taihua phenol ketone plant will start operation this week, although the current limited delivery, but the domestic supply is expected to increase. In addition, Shanghai Gaoqiao factory in East China fell 250 yuan / ton again near the end of the day, and 8450 yuan / ton was implemented. Yangzhou Shiyou down 300 yuan / ton. In terms of downstream situation, due to the current environmental pressure, some factories have started to decline, and some regions have shutdown phenomenon. The terminal factory is obviously short of gas, and the real price needs to be improved.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market offer in East China is around 8100-8200 yuan / ton, while that in Yanshan and Shandong is 8600 yuan / ton, which is basically in line with the factory’s guiding price. The market offer is less, while that in South China is 8350 yuan / ton, showing a marked decline in the market.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on December 1, the market offer in East China was 8850 yuan / ton, and on December 14, it was 8150 yuan / ton (8100-8200 yuan / ton), the market fell by 7.91%, while the mainstream price of factories was 8450-8650 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream raw material pure benzene Market performed poorly, with Dongming Petrochemical quoted 4500 yuan / T; HSBC Petrochemical quoted 4600 yuan / T; JC Petrochemical quoted 4230 yuan / T; Fuhai Hualian quoted 4200 yuan / T; Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 4400 yuan / T; Sinochem Hongrun quoted 4650 yuan / T. Domestic pure benzene fell with the price of styrene. At present, the price difference between internal and external markets is expanding, which has certain support for the domestic market, and the decline of pure benzene is expected to weaken. Pay close attention to Sinopec’s price guidelines. The current domestic price of pure benzene is 4200-4650 yuan / ton. In terms of raw material propylene, since mid December, the market price of propylene in Shandong has continued to decline. The existing propylene manufacturers shut down their plants, and their stocks are not large, and the shipment is general. The price of crude oil has declined slightly. In the near future, the price of propylene may start to stabilize, and it is not ruled out that the recovery is possible.

In terms of downstream market, the center of gravity of bisphenol a market has fallen sharply. The current market reference price has dropped to 18600 yuan / ton, and there are few transactions in the market. Traders have suspended the offer, and the current guidance price from the factory is 19000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this week, the bisphenol a market was slightly less optimistic, and the support of the terminal resin industry also declined significantly, and the high price of bisphenol a market could not be guaranteed under the transmission of the industrial chain.

Market forecast: at present, the current holders are worried about the increase of supply in the later period, but the foreseeable demand has not changed well. They are completely in the rigid demand procurement, and the real offer situation is not optimistic. It is expected that the short-term weak trend of East China market will be lowered, and the negotiation is expected to be at 8000 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spot price of polyester staple fiber showed a stable trend this week (12.4-12.11). As of December 11, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 5728 yuan / ton, which was the same as last Friday, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.44%. A few manufacturers have slightly increased their prices. In the futures market, the staple short fiber Futures (2105) closed higher at 6228 on December 11, up 136, or 2.3%, from 6092 on Friday. Crude oil shock higher and PTA shock rebound driven polyester staple fiber futures rebound, raw materials and futures rebound led to spot production and sales rebound, but affected by demand constraints, polyester staple fiber spot is difficult to continue to strengthen.

2、 Factors affecting prices

1. PTA: domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly this week. At the end of this week, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3498 yuan / ton, up 2.07% compared with last Friday, and decreased by 28.26% year on year. Crude oil prices rose on the back of oil production cuts announced by oil producing countries, the positive news of the new crown vaccine and the bomb attack on oil wells in Kirkuk Province, Iraq. Crude oil rose, cost support enhanced, boosting PTA price rebound.

 
2. Ethylene glycol: the domestic ethylene glycol spot market rose this week. At the end of this week, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3883 yuan / ton, up 1.76% from last Friday and down 22.85% year on year. Due to the planned overhaul of Fude energy plant, port inventory in the main port area of East China decreased, crude oil went up, costs rose and glycol prices rebounded. However, downstream chemical fiber weaving market gradually into the off-season, production and sales fall, glycol or re-appear accumulation, market downward pressure increases.

 
3. Polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market is running smoothly this week. At the end of this week, the average spot price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.25%. The downstream market prepared goods for the new year, but the orders for the shopping festival were gradually completed, the follow-up orders were weak, the start-up of looms declined, the polyester yarn market was stable and weak, the quotation of vortex spinning was stable, the spot sales without orders was also gradually weakened, and the inventory of polyester yarn enterprises was higher than before.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that the recent shock rise in crude oil, good market production and sales, upstream raw material prices strong support for costs. However, the downstream market “double 11″ and “double 12″ orders gradually entered the traditional off-season, the new orders were not good, the polyester yarn mill inventory was high, and the weaving start-up rate decreased. After the hot spot production and sales of staple fiber, the inventory level rose, and the short-term follow-up purchasing enthusiasm may weaken, and the wait-and-see mood increases. It is expected that the future staple fiber spot market will enter the accumulation stage, and if the spot price is not driven by futures, there may be a downward trend. However, the current trend of crude oil is strong, short-term fiber futures or continue to show a strong oscillation trend.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market declined in the first ten days of December, and the spot prices of various brands mainly fluctuated. As of December 10, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8733.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.68% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of propylene upstream of PP, according to the price chart of business agency, the price of propylene rose continuously in late November, with an increase of more than 12%. Prices held steady again from the end of the month to the beginning of the month. According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price was lower on December 3, 7735 yuan / ton; on the 4th, it began to show a comprehensive upward trend, and continued to rise on weekends, with the price of 8095 yuan / ton on the 7th day and 8171 yuan / ton on the 10th day. At present, the market turnover has risen to 8050 ~ 8200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8100 yuan / ton. In the early stage, some manufacturers temporarily stopped propylene plant, but production has not been resumed. Now, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure, and the shipment situation is good. Generally speaking, the crude oil price is up, the downstream market is general, and some downstream operating rates are slightly increased. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may continue to rise in the near future due to limited propylene production and favorable crude oil.

At present, the propylene market is mainly positive, which has certain support for the cost side of PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market of PP (drawing) in the first ten days of December was mainly organized, and some brands showed a certain decline. Due to the low inventory of PP in November, futures rose sharply, and the current PP has been at a high level. As a representative of plastic knitting enterprises, the downstream cost pressure increases, the profit space is compressed, and the resistance is generally intensified. Some factories have plans to reduce production and reduce burden, and the delivery of goods has shrunk. There is resistance to the seller’s shipment, and the overall price is weak. In addition, the new unit was put into operation. At present, the domestic polypropylene operating rate is high, and the supply is significantly increased, which is detrimental to the spot market.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 10, the mainstream offer of Z30S (fiber) of domestic manufacturers and traders has dropped slightly compared with the beginning of the month, and the price is about 8816.67 yuan / ton, which is 2.76% lower than the average price at the beginning of the month. Due to the growth of domestic restorative consumption in November, the price of fiber materials has increased to a certain extent. At present, the price of fiber PP is also at a high level. At present, PP futures run in shock, and the thrust on spot is slightly insufficient. According to reports, this week, polypropylene downstream total start narrow decline, while the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere gradually rise, negative demand side. The price of far upstream crude oil has recently been boosted by news such as Iraq’s attack, thus benefiting the chemical industry chain. At present, there is a lack of guidance in the market. It is expected that the price of fiber materials will be adjusted in the near future.

At the beginning of December, PP meltblown material market fluctuated, finishing the market mainly, and the price trend was dominated by supply and demand. As of the 10th, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was 10900 yuan / ton, and the price was temporarily stable. China has entered the stage of strict prevention, control and prevention in the fourth quarter. In addition to a small-scale rebound in some areas, the situation is generally stable. The demand for epidemic prevention materials is stable, but the overall price trend is weak. The supply side of meltblown cloth and material manufacturing market is surplus and the profit is diluted seriously. It is said that many enterprises stopped production at the end of last month. The second outbreak trend of overseas epidemic is obvious, and many countries emphasize to announce the strict closure of cities during Christmas. The price trend of imported materials is still stable, but there is still a small demand for imported materials.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: early December domestic PP spot market slightly down. Upstream propylene market continued to be positive, there was support for PP cost side. At present, the market of PP drawing material and fiber material is stable after falling, and the decline of PP (melt blown) tends to be stable. At present, the load of downstream factories is decreasing, and the purchasing is against the high price goods source, and the transaction becomes weak. Merchants make profit and take delivery actively. It is expected that the near future PP spot or will be affected by the cost support and weak demand pull and shock operation.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Melamine market is weak in recent years. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of December 9, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 7200 yuan / ton, which was 3.14% lower than that of last Wednesday (December 2), 14.89% higher than that of November 9, and 34.16% higher than that of the same period of three months.

At present, the melamine operating rate is high, and the overall market supply is relatively sufficient, but the demand side is low. Under the influence of local downstream environmental protection control, the construction is limited, and the negative factors in the market are around, and the melamine price is under pressure. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 7000 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is around 6400 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is around 7000 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.

Upstream urea, Shandong urea market rose on December 9. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

On December 8, the commodity price index of urea and melamine was 98.50, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 28.23% from 137.25 (2020-04-21), and increased by 22.73% from the lowest point of 80.26 on October 14, 2013. (Note: period refers to 2012-01-01 to present)

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on December 8, 2020, there were 23 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall on December 8, 2020. Among them, 1 kind of commodity increased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were acetic acid (5.62%), maleic anhydride (4.48%) and acetone (4.41%). There were 10 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with chloroform (- 2.70%), propylene glycol (- 2.37%) and styrene (- 1.65%). The average rise and fall was 0.38%.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts in the business agency believe that at present, the supply of melamine market is sufficient, but the purchasing intention of downstream manufacturers is weak and the demand is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be dominated by weak operation, and the specific trend needs more attention to market information guidance.