1、 Price trend
Recently, the LNG market has risen sharply, which has reached more than 7000 yuan / ton. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 5366 yuan / ton on December 11, 31.75% higher than that at the beginning of the month, 52.9% month on month, and 29.32% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China has risen by 30% in half a month. Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and other places have already risen to more than 7000 yuan / ton. On the 14th, the daily rise rate reached more than 1000 yuan. It can be said that it is crazy. Most liquid plants have no quotation for the time being, limited delivery, market quotation is chaotic, and most transactions are mainly through negotiation. With the sudden drop of temperature, the demand for urban gas has increased significantly. In order to ensure the people’s livelihood, there are many gas limiting and stopping production enterprises this week. The overall operating rate of the market is less than 30%. The supply has been greatly tightened, and the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, so that the liquid price has risen sharply. In order to maintain market order, Shaanxi took the lead in reducing the price by 1000 yuan on the 15th. However, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to change in a short period of time. The price of liquefied natural gas is still at a high level and the trend is strong.
Data show that natural gas continues to maintain a rapid growth. The import of natural gas has changed from increase to decrease. In November, the production of natural gas was 16.9 billion cubic meters, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, 0.1% lower than that of the previous month; the daily output of natural gas was 560 million cubic meters, an increase of 30 million cubic meters on a month on month basis. From January to November, 170.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. In November, 9.18 million tons of natural gas were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% and an increase of 16.1% last month. From January to November, 90.44 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 3.9% year on year.
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of December 17, the price has increased significantly compared with the beginning of the month. The average price in Inner Mongolia is around 6850 yuan / ton, which is about 2700 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. The average price in Shaanxi is around 7500 yuan / ton, which is about 2950 yuan / ton. The average price in Shanxi is around 7350 yuan / ton, which is 2800 yuan / ton. In Ningxia, the average price is about 2850 yuan / ton In Henan Province, the average price was around 3200 yuan / ton, and the liquid price increased significantly.
Regional specification quotation (yuan / ton) date
Inner Mongolia LNG 4950-6990 December 17
Shaanxi LNG 6850-7500 December 17
Hebei LNG 6000-6300 December 17
Shanxi LNG 6750-7370 December 17
Henan LNG 7200-7700 December 17
For downstream methanol, the domestic methanol market has continued to rise in recent years, and some manufacturers have increased their ex factory quotations by about 50-80 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 15, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2210 yuan / ton, with the price rising by 4.12% on a month on month basis and 4.25% on a year-on-year basis. Business community methanol analysts predict that the short-term domestic methanol market behavior.
On the one hand, the prices in Shandong and Hebei have remained firm for some time, and the supply pressure is not great. On the other hand, some orders from Northeast China may be accepted in the future, and the ammonia quantity in the region may decline, which may lead to an upward price.
Urea market in Shandong Province fluctuated in the first ten days of December. According to urea analysts of the business club, the current agricultural demand has been followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the industrial demand is purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.
As of December 16, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3610 yuan / ton, up 7.12% compared with the beginning of the month and 16.45% higher than the same period of last month. At present, the overall supply of the industry is limited. With the decline of liquid chlorine price, enterprises in Shandong may start to recover, while the downstream market just needs to be flat. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will be stable and firm in a short time. Pay attention to the changes of liquid chlorine price of raw materials.
3、 Future forecast
With the sharp decline in the supply and demand of natural gas, analysts believe that the supply and demand of liquefied gas in the city is still strong, and the supply and demand of natural gas is still strong.
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