According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market declined in the first ten days of December, and the spot prices of various brands mainly fluctuated. As of December 10, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8733.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.68% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
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Cause analysis
In terms of propylene upstream of PP, according to the price chart of business agency, the price of propylene rose continuously in late November, with an increase of more than 12%. Prices held steady again from the end of the month to the beginning of the month. According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price was lower on December 3, 7735 yuan / ton; on the 4th, it began to show a comprehensive upward trend, and continued to rise on weekends, with the price of 8095 yuan / ton on the 7th day and 8171 yuan / ton on the 10th day. At present, the market turnover has risen to 8050 ~ 8200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8100 yuan / ton. In the early stage, some manufacturers temporarily stopped propylene plant, but production has not been resumed. Now, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure, and the shipment situation is good. Generally speaking, the crude oil price is up, the downstream market is general, and some downstream operating rates are slightly increased. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may continue to rise in the near future due to limited propylene production and favorable crude oil.
At present, the propylene market is mainly positive, which has certain support for the cost side of PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market of PP (drawing) in the first ten days of December was mainly organized, and some brands showed a certain decline. Due to the low inventory of PP in November, futures rose sharply, and the current PP has been at a high level. As a representative of plastic knitting enterprises, the downstream cost pressure increases, the profit space is compressed, and the resistance is generally intensified. Some factories have plans to reduce production and reduce burden, and the delivery of goods has shrunk. There is resistance to the seller’s shipment, and the overall price is weak. In addition, the new unit was put into operation. At present, the domestic polypropylene operating rate is high, and the supply is significantly increased, which is detrimental to the spot market.
According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 10, the mainstream offer of Z30S (fiber) of domestic manufacturers and traders has dropped slightly compared with the beginning of the month, and the price is about 8816.67 yuan / ton, which is 2.76% lower than the average price at the beginning of the month. Due to the growth of domestic restorative consumption in November, the price of fiber materials has increased to a certain extent. At present, the price of fiber PP is also at a high level. At present, PP futures run in shock, and the thrust on spot is slightly insufficient. According to reports, this week, polypropylene downstream total start narrow decline, while the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere gradually rise, negative demand side. The price of far upstream crude oil has recently been boosted by news such as Iraq’s attack, thus benefiting the chemical industry chain. At present, there is a lack of guidance in the market. It is expected that the price of fiber materials will be adjusted in the near future.
At the beginning of December, PP meltblown material market fluctuated, finishing the market mainly, and the price trend was dominated by supply and demand. As of the 10th, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was 10900 yuan / ton, and the price was temporarily stable. China has entered the stage of strict prevention, control and prevention in the fourth quarter. In addition to a small-scale rebound in some areas, the situation is generally stable. The demand for epidemic prevention materials is stable, but the overall price trend is weak. The supply side of meltblown cloth and material manufacturing market is surplus and the profit is diluted seriously. It is said that many enterprises stopped production at the end of last month. The second outbreak trend of overseas epidemic is obvious, and many countries emphasize to announce the strict closure of cities during Christmas. The price trend of imported materials is still stable, but there is still a small demand for imported materials.
Future forecast
PP business agency analysts believe: early December domestic PP spot market slightly down. Upstream propylene market continued to be positive, there was support for PP cost side. At present, the market of PP drawing material and fiber material is stable after falling, and the decline of PP (melt blown) tends to be stable. At present, the load of downstream factories is decreasing, and the purchasing is against the high price goods source, and the transaction becomes weak. Merchants make profit and take delivery actively. It is expected that the near future PP spot or will be affected by the cost support and weak demand pull and shock operation.
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