On March 5, the State Energy Administration issued the Circular on Establishing the Information Monthly Report System for Expanding the Production and Promotion of Biofuel Ethanol and Gasoline for Vehicles, which stated that it was necessary to establish the Information Monthly Report System and to keep abreast of the progress made by relevant provinces (regions, municipalities) and central enterprises in promoting the production and popularization of biofuel ethanol and gasoline for vehicles.

In fact, it has been less than one year since the target of “realizing the basic coverage of ethanol and gasoline in the whole country by 2020″ was put forward in the Implementation Plan on Expanding the Production and Promotion of Biofuel Ethanol, issued jointly by the National Development and Reform Commission and other 15 ministries. What is the progress of ethanol and gasoline promotion in China? Can the planning objectives be achieved? What problems still exist?

Development lag

Ethanol is the improver of clean fuel and oil quality. Ethanol gasoline (E10) with 10% fuel ethanol can increase the octane number of gasoline and reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and harmful substances such as particulate matter, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in vehicle exhaust. According to incomplete statistics, more than 40 countries and regions have promoted biofuel ethanol and automotive ethanol gasoline. The annual consumption of ethanol gasoline is about 600 million tons, accounting for about 60% of the world’s total gasoline consumption.

Fuel ethanol has been widely used in China since 2001. In 2002, pilot projects of fuel ethanol were launched in Heilongjiang and Henan provinces, and expanded in 2004. By 2018, China had been promoting ethanol gasoline in six provinces including Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Henan, Anhui and Guangxi, and semi-closed in 31 cities of Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia and Hubei. In October 2018, Tianjin also successfully realized closed sales of ethanol and gasoline.

However, according to the reporter’s understanding, in the above pilot areas, in addition to the three northeastern provinces and Tianjin, the development of ethanol gasoline in other provinces and cities is not very good. Taking Guangxi as an example, since April 2008, ethanol gasoline for automobiles has been sold in closed sales in Guangxi. According to the data of the Development and Reform Commission of Guangxi Autonomous Region, the coverage rate of ethanol gasoline for automobiles reached 85.79% in 2009. However, the market share of ethanol gasoline gradually decreased, and the coverage rate dropped to less than 5% by 2017.

In view of the current development situation, many respondents expressed to reporters that it was “more difficult” to achieve the goal of “basic coverage of ethanol and gasoline by the end of 2020″.

According to Liu Lin, an analyst at Zhongyu, the development of ethanol gasoline is lagging behind. “The comprehensive promotion of ethanol and gasoline will inevitably lead to a sharp increase in the output of fuel ethanol, thus driving the whole ethanol industry to a better position. If the total coverage of ethanol and gasoline is achieved by 2020, the fuel ethanol market should be very hot now, but for the moment, the whole fuel ethanol market can only be said to be general. According to the current growth rate of fuel ethanol production, it will be difficult to achieve this goal next year.

Large gap in fuel ethanol

“At present, the promotion of ethanol gasoline is not ideal, the core reason is that there is a large gap in the supply of fuel ethanol.” Zhang Zhe, Senior Engineer of Marketing Institute of China National Petroleum Planning Institute, spoke frankly to reporters.

According to the data of China National Petroleum Planning Institute, the current production capacity of fuel ethanol in China is 2.89 million tons per year, while the current domestic gasoline consumption is about 130 million tons. According to the 10% addition ratio, if we want to achieve basic national coverage by 2020, the demand for fuel ethanol is about 13 million tons, with a gap of 10 million tons.

Among them, the economy of fuel ethanol production is the most important constraint.

It is understood that the main source of fuel ethanol raw materials in China is maize. In order to promote the development of biofuel ethanol industry, the Ministry of Finance has subsidized the production enterprises of biofuel ethanol relatively high. In 2009, COFCO Biochemical had enjoyed 2055 yuan/ton of raw material subsidies, and the production enterprises were more enthusiastic. Since then, however, subsidies have fallen sharply because of “fighting for grain with the people and grabbing land with grain”. On August 14, 2014, the Ministry of Finance issued the Notice on the Adjustment of Fiscal Policy on Biofuel Ethanol for Fixed-point Enterprises. The criteria for the continued subsidies of biofuel ethanol for approved projects using grain as raw materials are 300 yuan/ton in 2013, 200 yuan/ton in 2014 and 100 yuan/ton in 2015, and no subsidies will be provided after 2016. “In the past few years, the international crude oil price has gone down, while the ex-factory price of fuel ethanol in China has remained low due to its linkage with the price of refined oil. Its profitability is weak and it has no economy.” Liu Lin said.

Zhang Zhe also pointed out that under the superposition of many factors, the enthusiasm of fuel ethanol production enterprises declined. “Some enterprises have reduced the production of fuel ethanol, some of which are converted to edible alcohol, resulting in a lower and lower market share of ethanol and gasoline.”

Promotion schedule should be adjusted appropriately

According to Zhongyu information and statistics, 87% of the current fuel ethanol production in China comes from maize, 11% from cassava and sugarcane, and 2% from cellulose. Corn fuel ethanol production process, including aging rice, wheat and other crops, is the best raw material for fuel ethanol production because of digestible “problem grain” and “aging grain”, stable source of raw materials, mature production technology, and by-product corn oil, distiller’s grains protein feed (DDGS). However, its production capacity is restricted by the stock of aged grain such as corn in China, which is easy to cause worries about the food crisis. Therefore, Zhang Zhe said that the development of fuel ethanol should be tailored to local conditions and develop a diversified production process of ethanol raw materials.

It is reported that cassava and sugarcane have mature technology to produce fuel ethanol, and the production cost is low, but because of the small planting area, they rely more on imports. However, the solid fermentation technology with sweet sorghum as raw material has been commercially operated. Sweet sorghum can be planted on a large scale. The solid fermentation products are ethanol and distiller’s grains, which have no waste water and have large-scale production conditions. It is regarded as the most competitive ethanol raw material in the world.

In addition, cellulose, as the most advanced direction of ethanol production in biomass raw materials, has a wide range of sources of raw materials. It can make full use of crop straw to achieve waste utilization. However, at present, it is not mature in technology, and the cost of commercial process is very high, so large-scale production is not economically feasible.

“Biomass energy is the choice of energy diversification in the future, but the schedule should be adjusted timely according to the actual situation in the promotion process. At the same time, for raw materials in line with the national conditions, we should develop more new technologies and processes to maximize the benefits as far as possible. Like cellulosic ethanol, it should continue to develop, which is a good direction. In addition, because production costs will be affected by fluctuations in raw material prices and international crude oil prices, and the benefits are uncertain, enterprises can adopt more flexible production schemes, such as having the conditions to produce edible ethanol, fuel ethanol, or multiple products co-production.

According to Houston, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the United States will drive and lead the growth of global oil supply in the next five years, increasing the country’s already rapidly growing oil production by another 4 million barrels a day.

The IEA said that by 2024, U.S. oil production will rise from 15.5 million barrels a day last year to 19.6 million barrels. Total crude oil exports will double, which will lead to more intense competition in the global market, especially in Asia.

This prospect suggests that demand from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will be under pressure as the United States and other competitors expand their crude oil supply. However, the International Energy Agency believes that global oil demand has not yet peaked, which will boost the confidence of oil producers.

In its five-year outlook report, the IEA, which advises the United States and other industrialized countries on energy, said: “The United States is increasingly leading the growth of global oil supply, and oil production in other non-OPEC oil-producing countries has increased significantly, including Brazil, Norway and Guyana, the new oil-producing country.”

The US oil boom over shale oil runs counter to OPEC’s and its Russian-led partners’efforts to limit supply. The so-called OPEC + Group started a new round of cuts in oil supply in 2019 to support oil prices.

The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Tuesday slashed its domestic crude oil production forecast by 110,000 barrels a day and 170,000 barrels a day for this year and next, respectively, due to lower production expectations in the Gulf of Mexico, Nairobala and Anadarko shale prospects, according to Washington Energy Information.

EIA said in its monthly short-term energy outlook report that US oil production is expected to average 12.3 million barrels per day this year and 13.03 million barrels per day in 2020.

EIA expects U.S. producers to produce 13 million barrels of oil a day for the first time in the third quarter of next year, a quarter later than last month’s forecast.

“Oil production in the United States is expected to set a new record this year and next,” Linda Capuano, director of the U.S. Energy Information Agency, said in a statement.

The EIA said that the United States would become a net exporter of oil for the first time in December, with crude oil and finished oil output up to 240,000 barrels a day over imports.

By 2020, the United States is expected to remain a net exporter of oil, exporting more than 70,000 barrels a day on average. In 2018, the average net import volume of U.S. oil was 2.34 million barrels per day, and it is expected to reach 950,000 barrels per day in 2019.

In its monthly short-term energy outlook report, EIA raised its expectations for the average prices of Brent crude oil and West Texas intermediate crude oil this year.

India’s Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change (hereinafter referred to as India’s Ministry of Environmental Protection) recently issued an official statement saying that the Indian government has issued a ban on India’s import of solid plastic waste, including special economic zones and export-oriented enterprises. However, the statement has not yet disclosed when the ban will come into force.

India’s Ministry of Environmental Protection has revised the Hazardous Wastes and Other Wastes (Management and Cross-border Transfer) Rules (2016 edition) to “strengthen the implementation of environmental management of hazardous wastes in the country”.

“By simplifying the process involved in the rules and adhering to the principle of sustainable development, the amendment ensures the convenience of doing business and encourages Indian manufacturing. At the same time, these amendments adhere to the principle of sustainable development and ensure that the environmental impact of hazardous wastes and other wastes (management and transboundary movement) is minimized. India’s Ministry of Environmental Protection said.

India’s Ministry of Environmental Protection also pointed out that once defects in electrical and electronic components manufactured in India and exported by India were found, they could be imported back to India within one year after export without the permission of the Ministry of Environmental Protection.

In addition, enterprises that have not been authorized to deal with wastes under the Water (Pollution Prevention) Act (1974 edition) and the Air (Pollution Prevention) Act (1981 edition) can now also be authorized under the Hazardous Wastes and Other Wastes (Management and Transboundary Transfer) Rules (2016 edition), provided that hazardous wastes and other wastes generated by the industry are transferred to authorized actual users and wastes. Collector or treatment facility.

According to a Reuters report on March 8, the agency quoted customs data to report that China’s imports of crude oil and natural gas continued to grow in February, although it had reached a record high a few months ago.

Crude oil imports amounted to 39.22 million tons, or 10.23 million barrels per day, up 21.6% year-on-year, and exceeded 10 million tons for the fourth consecutive month. The big increase at the end of 2018 was the result of the eagerness of independent refiners to fill import quotas by the end of the year. But now, even though the quotas issued by the Ministry of Commerce in January are low, imports are still strong.

China’s Customs data show that the total import volume of natural gas (liquefied natural gas and pipeline traffic) was 7.55 million tons last month, down from 9.81 million tons in January, but up 8.8% from February 2018.

For more than a month, as Japan continues to restart its nuclear reactor, China is expected to become the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas. Restarting its nuclear reactor will have a negative impact on Japan’s import of liquefied natural gas. It is predicted that China will become the largest consumer of imported liquefied natural gas in 2022.

International oil prices rose on Monday, with U.S. oil and oil distribution both rising by more than 1%. By closing, WTI crude oil futures closed up $0.72, or 1.28%, at $56.79 a barrel in April. Brent crude oil futures closed up $0.84, or 1.28%, at $66.58 a barrel in May. In addition, SC1904, the main contract of crude oil futures in the previous period, closed up 13.20 yuan, or 3.05%, at 445.30 yuan per barrel.

According to media reports, Saudi government sources recently revealed that Saudi Arabia plans to push for an extension of production cuts at the April meeting to stabilize crude oil prices.

At the same time, the news also effectively alleviated the weak demand worries caused by last week’s non-farm report in the United States, and encouraged the confidence of crude oil bulls.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia said that its crude oil export in April will be reduced to less than 7 million barrels per day, which means that Saudi oil production will be about 30% lower than the target of 10.311 million barrels per day, and the reduction will be about 2 million barrels per day.

In addition, data from Beckhughes, a US oil service company, showed last Friday that the number of active oil drillings in the United States fell by 9 to 834 from a 10-month low last week, partly alleviating market concerns about rising U.S. crude oil production.

In fact, U.S. crude oil production remains one of the greatest threats to OPEC’s production cuts. Last week, data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) showed that U.S. crude oil production remained at a record high of 12.1 million barrels per day, which has inhibited the boosting effect of the cuts on oil prices.

Reporters learned from the industry that the recent vitamin factory Tiger due to shortage of raw materials calcium pantothenate products shutdown, the market circulation of goods reduced, leading to the main manufacturers shortage of shipments, have bid. Last weekend, there was another rumor in the market that a manufacturer in Zhejiang stopped reporting and the quotation of distributors continued to rise. The price of calcium pantothenate rose from 155-160 yuan/kg the previous week to 180-200 yuan/kg last weekend. Some enterprises even signed 210/kg lists on the market.

Market survey shows that more than 60% of practitioners believe that the price of calcium pantothenate has an upward trend. The industry believes that with the coming of the market peak season, the upstream raw material tension and demand is expected to continue to pull the price of calcium pantothenate firm.

European polyethylene (PE) prices have risen for the first time since June 2018.

Some traders breathed a sigh of relief.

“The past few months have been really tough and prices have been falling,” one of them said.

Another trader said, “It’s great to hear that after several months of decline.”

The last time most PE prices rose was in June 2018.

For several months, some PE spot prices have been lower than contract prices for ethylene.

Since July 2018, the spot low-end price of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) has been significantly lower than the contract price of ethylene, and the net low-end price of C4 (butenyl) linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) has performed worse.

The last time the spot low price of C4 LLDPE was higher than the contract price of ethylene in March 2018, the upward pressure was the greatest in March, because there were fewer imported materials available.

Most of the low density polyethylene C4 used in Europe is imported, so the relationship with ethylene may not be the same as other brands, but the price of global exports to Europe has been very low.

Last week, spot prices of C4 LLDPE fluctuated sharply, some quotations were still below the level of ethylene contracts, and some buyers were forced to raise prices substantially to get the volume they needed.

The net price of LDPE has also risen, with FD quoting more than 1,000 euros per ton in Northwest Europe.

Low density polyethylene (LDPE) and C4 low density polyethylene (C4 LLDPE) are in short supply due to production problems and reduced imports. Although some buyers have to accept higher prices, they are well supplied.

High density polyethylene (HDPE) has mixed tastes. The price gap between ethylene and HDPE has always been higher than LDPE and LLDPE, but sellers are also pushing up prices.

Rising prices and weak demand

Despite the sharp rise in prices, demand from smaller sellers did not all improve in March.

One of them said: “Prices are rising, but sales are not. There is no shortage of anything and not many customers want to buy it.

Big customers may sell better, and some buyers are making sure their needs are met once the plant maintenance plan is in place.

Sources said May was an important month for ethylene supply, but they also expected that as long as everything went according to plan, there would be no shortage.

Some sellers had predicted price increases of up to 50-70 euros per ton, but buyers were very skeptical that the price would not be higher than the increase in the contract price of ethylene.

PE negotiations usually take a long time to reach an agreement, and retrospective pricing still exists in many regions.

PE is used in packaging, household goods manufacturing, and also in the field of agriculture.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on March 8, China imported 39.233 million tons of crude oil in February, an increase of 69.71 million tons, an increase of 21.6%, and a decrease of 33.64 million tons, a decrease of 7.9%.

Crude oil imports in February amounted to $17234.8 million, up 9.1% year-on-year and down 7.7% year-on-year. Based on this, it is estimated that the unit price of imports is US$439.3 per ton, an increase of US$0.8 per ton, and a decrease of US$50.2 per ton compared with the same period last year.

In February, China imported 2.348 million tons of refined oil, a decrease of 263,000 tons, or 10.1%, compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 1.028 million tons, or 30.5%.

The imports of refined oil in February were $1215.4 million, down 19.0% and 32.7% year-on-year. Based on this, it is estimated that the unit import price is 517.6 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 17.1 US dollars per ton annually, and a decrease of 57.1 US dollars per ton year on year.

In February, China exported 3.806 million tons of refined oil, an increase of 322,000 tons, an increase of 9.2%, and a decrease of 1.614 million tons, a decrease of 29.8%.

Exports of refined oil in February were $2096.7 million, up 1.8% year-on-year and down 30.2% year-on-year. Based on this, the unit export price is estimated to be 550.9 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 3.6 US dollars per ton, and a decrease of 40.6 US dollars per ton over the same period of last year.

From January to February 2019, China imported 81,825,000 tons of crude oil, an increase of 12.4% over the same period last year. The cumulative import amount was US$359.34 million, an increase of 2.2% over the same period last year.

From January to February 2019, China imported 5.724 million tons of refined oil, an increase of 4.4% over the same period last year. The cumulative import amount was $302.7 million, a decrease of 0.7% over the same period last year.

From January to February 2019, China exported 9.226 million tons of refined oil, an increase of 21.2% over the same period last year. The cumulative export amount was $509.38 million, an increase of 18.8% over the same period last year.

There was no crude oil export in February.

From mid-late February to early March, the Jiangsu styrene market was glued with emptiness, and the situation of rigid consolidation was throughout. The reason why the post-festival market has stepped out of the stalemate is the result of the interweaving of many factors, such as peripheral factors, upstream and downstream factors, as well as the level of supply and demand of products themselves. And up to now, many factors are still intertwined and the situation is still sticky. The following is a summary of the basic factors:

Bulk commodities

Strong commodities boost confidence in the industry. After the festival, the black systems represented by threads, iron ore and coke, and the chemical systems represented by L, PP and methanol have gone strongly along the whole line. Peripheral strength, the market support for styrene is obvious, bulls take advantage of the momentum to boost.

Stock index synchronization trend is strong. In January, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose rapidly from 2584.57 at the end of January to 3079.5, up 19.1%; the Dow Jones Index rose from 24837 to 26241, up 5.7%.

Raw material Market

Crude Oil: Continued production cuts in the producing countries and instability in Venezuela have tightened supply together. After the festival, the crude oil market has maintained a volatile upward trend. The Sino-US trade negotiations are progressing smoothly and the global stock market is stabilizing. The industry is optimistic about future demand. By March 5, crude oil WTI and Brent increased by 5.2% and 6.4% respectively compared with the end of January.

Pure benzene and ethylene rebound synchronously, and the production cost rises. Comparing with the end of January, ethylene CFR in Northeast Asia rose to $119, 124, or 11.2%, due to the combined effect of planned or unplanned parking and maintenance of cracking plants in Europe and Korea and batch purchasing of domestic styrene manufacturers. Many domestic styrene units were centralized overhaul, and pure styrene FOB rose slightly slowly in Korea at 8.1%.

Supply and demand level of styrene

Pure benzene and ethylene both rose, and the production cost of styrene rebounded. As of March 5, compared with the end of January, the cost of domestic non-monomerized styrene producers increased by 4%, because domestic spot prices fell during the same period, profits fell by 36%.

The plant started smoothly and profitably. In 2019, the domestic styrene industry maintained high output and high start-up rate. In February, domestic styrene production increased by 2.1% compared with January, and the start-up rate increased by 1.9 percentage points.

In January, imports of styrene reached an all-time high. In January 2019, China imported 395,400 tons of styrene, which was 18% higher than the previous month and 50.7% higher than the same period last year.

East China’s main port stock has repeatedly reached a new high, the mainstream reservoir tank capacity is tight. As of March 6, the stock of styrene in East China main port was 345,500, which was 124.7% higher than that at the end of December 2018 and 246.9% higher than that at the same time last year.

Looking at the inventory data of East China’s main ports over the years, the inventory in 2019 has repeatedly reached an all-time high. Inventory factors have become the biggest negative factor in the heavy market.

Downstream industry

Influenced by the Spring Festival holidays, except SBS industry, the start-up rate of main downstream industries of styrene dropped, among which EPS and PS decreased by 14% and 22%.

The main downstream industry of styrene maintained high profits. From January to February, the profit of EPS industry was high at 900 yuan/ton, low at 350 yuan/ton, and the average monthly level was 744 yuan/ton and 595 yuan/ton respectively; the profit of PS industry was high at 1845 yuan/ton, low at 1040 yuan/ton, and the average monthly level was 1586 yuan/ton and 1189 yuan/ton respectively; the profit of ABS industry was high at 1677 yuan/ton, low at 1100 yuan/ton, and the average monthly level was 1379 yuan/ton and 1179 yuan/ton respectively.

In early March, following the trend of commodities, Jiangsu futures spot market rebounded, stimulated by the decline of inventory in East China’s main port and the good news of the two sessions. Influenced by the buying-up-not-buying-down mentality, EPS manufacturer’s orders have been scaled up accordingly. The market trend in the second half of the year still needs to pay attention to the following aspects:

1. The change of commodity trend will directly influence the mentality of the industry.

2. The demand development of the main downstream industries and the degree of de-inventory of the main ports in East China will directly determine the supply and demand fundamentals.

3. The trend of crude oil, pure styrene and ethylene, and the change of cost will affect the mentality of the industry on the one hand, and on the other hand, determine the start-up situation of domestic styrene industry.

4. The intention of the main funds. Such a high spot inventory and slow liquidity are a double test for the main capital and the reservoir area. Whether the two can withstand the pressure and wait for the real inflection point to come remains to be seen.