First, the trend analysis According to business data monitoring shows: Since May, the domestic cobalt market shock adjustment, cobalt price shock fell, the overall cobalt price powerless rebound rise. As at May 19 cobalt price of 251833.33 yuan/ton, compared with May 1 cobalt price 272500.00 yuan/ton fell, a decrease of 7.58%.

Compared to April, cobalt prices suddenly fell sharply in May, and the dawn of cobalt was hard to cash.

II. Analysis of macroeconomic environment

1, international cobalt price rise weak

Category specifications

Lowest price

Change

Highest price

Change

Unit

2019.5.3

2019.5.17

2019.4.3

2019.4.26

Standard Grade Cobalt

16.35

16.25

-0.1

17.05

16.8

-0.25

USD/lb

Alloy grade Cobalt

17

17

0

18

17.7

-0.3

USD/lb
© 2019.4 Business Club

Www.100ppi.com

International Market MB quoted a small decline in May, the fall in international cobalt prices dragged down the domestic cobalt market.

LME market Cobalt Price into May after the stability of cobalt prices, cobalt City lost the momentum of rise, the domestic market cobalt price bearish.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

2. Escalation of Sino-US trade disputes May 9–The U.S. government announced that the tariff rate on the 200 billion dollar list of goods imported from China has increased from 10% to 25% since May 10. May 13, China’s State Council tariff committee issued a notice that from 0 o’clock on the June 1, will be imposed tariffs on the 60 billion of dollars list of United States goods, the increase in tariff rates, respectively, the implementation of 25%, 20% or 10% of the levy tariff. 5% tariffs continue to be imposed on items that have previously been imposed on tariff lines of 5%.

Sino-US trade disputes escalated, the macroeconomic environment deteriorated, the non-ferrous metal market and cobalt city formed a negative, cobalt price rise weak.

3. Trump delays imposing tariffs on cars U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to delay the decision to impose tariffs on imported cars and parts for six months to temporarily avoid expanding global trade disputes, foreign media four reported. Trump’s delay in imposing tariffs on cars comes at a time when the United States is trying to reach a potential trade deal with China to end escalating conflict.

The suspension of the imposition of tariffs on cars in the United States has created a greater boon for the city of Cobalt, but has not changed the current situation of oversupply in cobalt city.

Iii. New Energy Vehicles In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 102,000 and 97,000 vehicles respectively, an increase of 25% and 18.1% respectively over a year earlier, according to the latest data released by the Federation.

In April, the new energy passenger car market entered the subsidy transition period, although the new energy vehicle achieved a good sales level of 91,000 units, an increase of 28.4% yoy, but March-year growth-17%, compared with the March decline, the demand for cobalt market after the bearish.

EDTA

Iv. growth in mobile phone sales China ICT Institute data show that in April 2019, the domestic mobile phone market overall shipments of 36.53 million, an increase of 6.7%, 2019 1-April, the domestic mobile phone market overall shipments of 113 million, a decrease of 6.7%.

Although mobile phone sales in 2019 are still a big decline from the same period in 18, but the April rise for the market to bring a glimmer of good, the increase in mobile phone sales on the demand for cobalt market in the aftermarket has a certain positive.

V. Outlook for the aftermarket: Business data analyst Baijia believes that since entering the May, international cobalt prices have been weak, can not bring good domestic cobalt prices, on the contrary, the international economic environment continues to deteriorate, the escalation of Sino-US trade disputes to cobalt market has a greater profit, affecting the rebound of cobalt city. Sales of new energy vehicles in the country increased in April compared with the same period last year, but the decline in sales over March also shows that the decline in subsidies has a greater impact on the sale of new energy vehicles, to the cobalt market. Although the United States also suspended the positive stimulus of tariffs on cars in May, eased trade disputes between the European Union and Japan and the United States, avoided a third-tier war in the United States, had little impact on China, and changes in tariffs were difficult to change the status quo of the oversupply in cobalt market is limited to the cobalt market. The larger good news from the mobile phone market, although the 19 mobile phone market Overall performance is not good, but a gradual upward trend, of which April mobile phone sales are up 6.7% from the same period last year, the April mobile phone market performance is excellent, for the aftermarket demand for cobalt market to bring new vitality, the increase in cobalt prices have a greater positive. But overall, the current stage of Cobalt City is still in a state of oversupply, cobalt prices rose indefinitely, expected after the market cobalt price shock fell, cobalt city is difficult to recover the dawn.

Melamine

US stir-up friction shakes global market 2019 Impact of Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products May 9, the United States Government announced that since the 2019 Sino-US Trade war on polyolefin and plastic products affected by May 10, the import of 200 billion U.S.-China trade war on polyolefin and plastic products on the impact list commodity levy tariff rate increased from 10% to 25%. The above measures have led to an escalation of Sino-US economic and trade frictions. Subsequently, China resolutely counter the system and announced the impact of the 2019 Sino-US Trade war on polyolefin and plastic products from 0 o’clock on the June 1, the 60 billion U.S.-China trade war that has imposed tariffs on the impact of polyolefin and plastic products on the list of United States goods, the increase in tariff rates, the implementation of 25%, 20% or 10% tariff increases, respectively.

Benzalkonium chloride

5% tariffs continue to be imposed on items that have previously been imposed on tariff lines of 5%.

Trade friction is not a child fight, and as the world’s first and second largest economy, news of the friction and escalation of Sino-US trade has sparked a fall in major global stock indexes and weighed down global commodity downturns.

The plastics industry is hard to survive Polyolefin as a commodity is also affected, the international trade environment is once again due to the United States provoked by the escalation of trade friction and grim. Domestic concerns about the obstruction of exports of plastic products, and then a pessimistic attitude towards the demand for synthetic resin raw materials, including polyolefin, led to the continued downward trend of polyolefin futures in large merchants, as of this week, the market mentality only slightly has picked up, and large merchants L09 and P09 contracts are affected by this,

The biggest drop in just one week was more than 400. Impact of Sino-US trade Wars on polyolefin and plastic products/Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products, taking the East China market linear as an example, some spot brand market decline is the largest close to 500 Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products influence/Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products

Sodium Molybdate

Changes in the supply flow of polyethylene global market The influence of Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products on polyolefin and plastics in China and the United States Trade war on polyolefin and plastic Products The influence of Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products added, according to the United States ACC data, 2019 Sino-US Trade war on polyolefin and plastic products affected January-April, U.S. polyethylene monthly exports remain at 600,000 Sino-US trade Wars affect polyolefin and plastic products above, with major trade flows to Europe, Asia and the Americas. Because of the impact of the Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products, China imposed a 25% tariff on the United States for low pressure and linearity, leading to a Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products affecting the impact of U.S.-China polyethylene exports on polyolefin and plastic products in the 700,000 Sino-US trade war, The impact of about 40.5 million Sino-US trade Wars on polyolefin and plastic products has been reduced more than expected.

Enables factories in the Middle East and Southeast Asia to supply Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic Products The influence of Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products flows to the Chinese market.

Domestic Plastic Products Export blocked The US $200 billion tax on the list of goods increased from 10% to 25%, involving the plastic products part of the 8 billion U.S.-China trade war on polyolefin and plastic products, accounting for more than 2018 Sino-US Trade war on polyolefin and plastic products affected by the export to the United States total amount of 43%. 8 billion of dollars accounted for about 3.5% of the total domestic demand, this part of the export fell to 0, the need for the remaining aggregate demand of the Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products affect the speed of 3.6% to maintain aggregate demand the Sino-US trade war has a flat-year impact on polyolefin and plastic products. Of course, plastic products not only involve the demand for polyolefin, but also on PS, PET, EVA and other needs have a negative impact.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

In the low season potassium chloride market is poor, after the wind direction is also clear and rainy, elusive. To what extent has the price of potassium chloride fallen now? Is there any impact of Sino-US trade frictions? Exchange rate fluctuation, Qinghai reduction and other factors under the big contract negotiations will be how? Domestic potassium faucet Salt Lake shares next month will be how to adjust the new price?

Chitosan oligosaccharide

Now let’s take a look at apostles.

Imported potassium falls below cost line after 51 For fertilizer people, this year’s spring has come particularly late but the walk is not muddy. After 51, the price of potassium chloride all the way down, the current border trade 62% white potassium has fallen to less than 2050 yuan (ton price, the same below), the port 60% red powder has fallen to less than 2150 yuan, and the former May monthly import cost price of 2120 yuan, the latter’s apparent cost of 2310 Yuan, rebate after the cost of 2160 yuan, That is to say, at least a loss of 70 yuan and 10 yuan respectively. As for the port 62% white potassium, especially 60% red granular potassium price some confusion, the general quotation, ton package or bulk goods quotation and the actual transaction price of the overall range is larger, probably near 2280-2380 yuan, and its apparent cost, return after the cost of the range of 2200-2380 yuan, It can be said that a leg has also stepped into the loss.

And the key problem is that it is not yet possible to conclude that such a price is already bottoming out.

The influence of Sino-US trade friction upgrade Talk about to go to the tariff or add to each other, in the face of the trade war, other we dare not say, potash people can indeed pat the chest said “to fight and fight”, because-potassium chloride, potassium sulfate import and export and the United States does not have much intersection. This point the previous day has the industry detailed list of data, the author will not repeat. In addition, there is a voice in the market that Sino-US trade frictions have reduced imports of agricultural products, favorable to the rise in domestic agricultural prices, increased demand, and indirectly will be good fertilizer demand and prices. In this regard, the author has reservations. Because one of the agricultural products to add tariffs is the last thing that has happened, nearly a year of agricultural product prices have surged? The other is that we only add to the United States, not with the world! Therefore, do not be too “hot blood”, do not forget the upper layer of strong regulatory capacity, and do not ignore the import volume and structure of the details of the change.

The key also to remember that strength is not created by not letting people in!

Production reduction, devaluation and large contract negotiation In the early stage, I have repeatedly stressed that the second half of potassium chloride trend can be reversed one of the key points lies in the extent of domestic potassium production reduction, at present, this reduction has indeed reached the point of not to be belittled. Just now, domestic potassium production in the top three of the enterprise’s potassium chloride daily production of only about 14,000 tons, 24% less than the same period last year, 30% less than the same period in 2017! Of course, this kind of contrast is not really convincing, because it is only a small short period of performance, but the author is still more worried about the last six months to end the various statistical data after the market response.

In addition, from May 9 to date, the renminbi has fallen 8 days against the dollar, the median price from 6.7596 to 6.8988, today’s real-time exchange price has reached about 6.93, such a change will make potassium chloride import costs up to nearly 50 yuan. At first glance, the above two points seem to support the domestic price of potassium chloride, but in fact not necessarily. First of all, although the production of domestic potassium will reduce the weight of negotiations, but the current low-season potassium chloride port stock is far greater than the same period in previous years, and nearly half a year the price of the international potash market has been stable and difficult to rise, in the past six months there have been about 5 of dollars in the fall, so the 82 weight of foreign investors Because the upward trend is not good, so changes in the exchange rate are more likely to be reflected in the buyer’s price, so the rise in the cost of the yuan’s price increase is likely to be reflected in the big contract is down 5-6 of dollars, which is only from the exchange rate point of view.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

From the existing situation analysis, the author initially believes that the new large-contract negotiations on both sides can not be delayed, the signing time should still be within 7-September, the price on the basis of 290 of dollars or about 10-20 of dollars in the fall.

Forecast of domestic potassium June price Salt Lake June New Price is afraid to fall back, according to the current import potassium price situation, if the fall or will be around 50 yuan. First of all, in the low season, Hong Kong deposit, so the short-term price trend is impossible to reverse, second, the recent decline in imports of potassium is obvious, the coastal market in the domestic potassium circulation price has followed the downward adjustment; third, after 4 May of sales, Salt Lake in June need to ensure a certain collection, even if not cut prices but there may be other

But after this stage of the off-season, in the second half of the domestic potassium production and marketing situation will appear to be particularly important, you can look forward to perhaps become the trigger of the late price increase. In summary, no matter how to see the aftermarket, want to carry out what kind of operation, now do not have to worry, first patiently watch it.

EDTA

In the past 2 days, a-share rare earth permanent magnet concept stock has experienced a “roller coaster.” May 16, the concept of rare earth permanent magnet set off a wave of trading, Northern Rare earth (600111), Guangsheng nonferrous (600259), Shenghe Resources (600392), Minmetals rare earth (000831), Medium color Shares (000758), Ningbo Yun Sheng (600366), East Fujian Electric Power (000993), North Mine Technology (600980) and other nearly 20 stocks collective trading. On the same day, the A-share market also in the low after the concussion higher, the three major stock indices are red reported. However, the wave of trading is only a flash in the pan. May 17, A shares high and low walk, the three major stock indexes fell more than 2% at the same time, rare earth concept stocks also closed with varying degrees of decline. Northern Rare earth closing price of 10.99 yuan/share, down 1.96%; Guangsheng colored closing price 37.50 yuan/share, down 5.52%; Xiamen tungsten Industry closing price 13.33 yuan/share, down 6.59%. What factors caused the roller coaster market?

For the previous day’s rise, the industry is widely believed to be caused by short-term supply concerns for rare earths. November 3, 2018, Yunnan Tengchong customs banned all Burmese resources imported into China, including rare earth mineral resources. December 14, 2018, Tengchong customs in response to Myanmar rare Earth mine clearance, the implementation period of 5 months, that is, from May 2019 onwards will be a total ban on the import of rare earth minerals into China; February 14, 2019, the municipal government of Tengchong, Yunnan province to completely stop the export of rare earth related chemical raw materials to Myanmar, coverage including Tengchong Yunnan Beach Port,

As well as the state-level port Chicho and the surrounding port. According to Tengchong customs clearance operations staff, the closure of rare earth imports and the export of rare earth related production materials is a unified deployment of the local government, mainly considering the safety of domestic migrant workers, and other factors such as domestic industrial regulation.

Melamine

thuringiensis

He said that the gathering area of rare earth development in Myanmar, there are contradictions between local armed forces and Burmese Government, the interests of the two are not consistent, the safety of local migrant workers is difficult to guarantee. Notably, before the ban, Myanmar was China’s largest importer of ionic rare earths. According to customs data, Myanmar imported 25,800 tonnes of mixed rare earth carbonate (about 20,000 tons of oxides) in 2018, accounting for 85%, and the domestic medium-weight rare earth quota (about 20,000 tons) is comparable. However, monthly data showed that the number of rare earth carbonate imports in November 2018 and December fell by 69% and 59% respectively compared with October of the same year.

The market predicts that the supply of medium-heavy rare earths in China will be significantly reduced after the closure. “Not only are offshore mines not coming in, we are still shutting down, and there is less supply,” a person from a large rare earth group told surging News.

“This person refers to the shutdown is, since 2017, the domestic heavy rare earth because of environmental verification and resource costs, some mining is blocked and shut down, the domestic medium and heavy rare earth mineral mining/quota utilization rate has been in a very low position.” It is reported that China heavy rare earth heavily in Jiangxi since 2018 all rare earth mines have been discontinued state, Gannan Rare earth mines have been discontinued for nearly 3 years, has not yet been reused.

The ion-type rare earth quota in Jiangxi Province accounts for nearly half of the national total quota, and the influence of Jiangxi mine shutdown on the supply of medium and heavy rare earths in China is “seismic type”. That is why Myanmar’s imports of medium-heavy rare earths have become an important complement in the past two years.

EDTA 2Na

Market analysis that once Myanmar imports ore seals, some smelting separation plants or into a “rice-free cooking” situation. Rare Earth is a generic term for 17 kinds of metal elements, known as the “industrial msg” reputation, widely used in electronic information, petrochemical, metallurgy, machinery, energy and other 13 fields more than 40 industries. The reason why it has become the focus of resource competition lies in its ability to apply to military high and new technologies such as missiles, intelligent weapons, navigation instruments and jet engines. In particular, medium and heavy rare earths are considered to be a strategic resource. China’s rare earth ore is mainly divided into Inner Mongolia Baotou Baiyun Ebo Rare Earth ore as the representative of the mixed light rare earth ore, Sichuan Mianning fluorine cerium light rare earth and the southern medium heavy ion rare earth ore. In recent years, China has supplied 70% of the world’s production with nearly 40% of its global reserves.

How to effectively supervise and exploit the dispersed Southern ionic mines has become an important part of protecting China’s strategic resources. However, China is shifting from a major exporter of rare earths to a major importer of rare earths amid ongoing government measures such as “rare earth black”. ASEAN countries such as Myanmar, Australia and the United States are important sources of rare earths imports in China. It is worth mentioning that the United States also maintains a high degree of dependence on rare earth magnets in China, taking into account such factors as the cost of restarting the mine and the impact on the environment. In the US list of tax increases for China, rare earths, key minerals and other resources are not on the list. In a study, Tian Feng Securities pointed out that this reflects the United States on China’s rare earth resources, magnetic materials are still strong dependence.

Bacillus thuringiensis

According to Baku, Trend news agency in Azerbaijan, the Trend news agency, citing OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report (MOMR), reported that 14 OPEC members produced an average of 30.03 million barrels a year in early April, the same as in March.

The main members of the decline in crude oil production in April were Saudi Arabia and Angola, while crude oil production in Iraq, Nigeria and Libya increased in April, the report said. OPEC’s share of crude oil produced in April in the world’s total crude oil production for the month remained unchanged from March, remaining at 30.4%.

Benzalkonium chloride

The estimate is based on preliminary data on supply to non-OPEC oil producers, OPEC gas liquid production and direct communication of unconventional oil, while estimates of OPEC crude oil production are based on second-hand sources. On December 7 last year, the fifth ministerial meeting of OPEC members and non-OPEC oil producers reached an agreement in Vienna to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a year from January 1.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Mexico’s government has approved a fiscal stimulus that could increase the production of Mexico’s National Petroleum Corporation by 400,000 barrels a day, according to a report on today’s oil price website quoting Mexican Finance Minister Carlos Urzua.

EDTA

The measure involves signing credit agreements with Hong Kong HSBC, JPMorgan Chase and Mizuho Securities. Under the new terms, the loan term of $5.5 billion will be extended for two years and about $2.5 billion of the existing debt will be refinanced, the official said.

The money will be used to continue to exploit oil in aging oilfields in the current recession. To this end, the old oilfields involved under this measure will be transferred to the production sharing agreement introduced by the former Mexican government as part of the comprehensive energy reform passed in 2014.

Mexico has been trying to reverse the steady decline in crude oil production caused by inadequate investment and the urgent need for new discoveries. The former government tried to solve the problem by breaking Pemex’s monopoly in the market and inviting foreign companies to explore for oil and gas at sea.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

At the same time, however, the new government is as eager to increase production as its predecessor: it promises that Mexico’s crude oil production will reach 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of its term of office, close to the average of 2.52 million barrels per day in 2013.

The new government also announced that it would combine debt refinancing and tax cuts to provide the heavily indebted Mexican National Oil Company with a lifeline of $3.6 billion.

Mexico National Petroleum Corp.’s average crude oil production in 2018 was 1.183 million barrels a day, according to data from Mexico National Petroleum Corp. By contrast, the average output in 2013 was 2.522 million barrels per day, falling to 1.948 million barrels per day in 2017.

Melamine

International Energy Agency Administrator Fatih Birol said on June 16 that in recent years, the global development of liquid natural gas has been very rapid, and the proportion of LNG facilities under construction in all countries exceeds that of pipeline transportation of natural gas; at the same time, the volume of trade has increased rapidly, especially in Asia. China is expected to overtake Japan as the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas. In 2025, nearly 50 countries will import liquefied natural gas.

Fatih Birol made this prediction at the “High-end Forum of Clean Power International Engineering Science and Technology 2019″ held in Beijing on the 16th.

Benzalkonium chloride

He analyzed that 2018 was the fastest growing year for global primary energy demand. Half of the new energy demand is met by natural gas, followed by renewable energy and oil, coal and nuclear energy. China’s extensive “Blue Sky Project” and prevention and control of atmospheric pollution have led to a substantial increase in global natural gas demand.

“But at the rate of growth, global electricity demand is growing twice as fast as other energy sources, and our world is increasingly affected by electricity.” Fatih Birol said.

In his view, China’s photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation and related equipment manufacturing are at the highest level in the world, leading the development of related industries in the world. The Chinese government’s policy support for wind and photovoltaic power generation not only benefits China, but also benefits the whole world.

Sodium Molybdate

With the increasing global energy demand, environmental pressure is still increasing. In 2018, global carbon dioxide emissions reached an all-time high.

“Climate change is a huge challenge that cannot be solved by a single technology, nor by renewable energy alone. It requires the integration of technologies. We hope to continue to cooperate with China in renewable energy utilization, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy development and carbon dioxide capture and storage, so as to bring greater help to global environmental improvement. Fatih Birol said.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Surveillance data from the Business Association (100ppi.com) showed that the price of natural rubber had risen all the way by the end of April under the influence of “mixing rubber classification”, and had risen by 6.8% by May 10. The price of spot rubber had risen by 1000 yuan per ton since May, up by 10.34%.

Melamine

Influencing factors:

1. The change of trade and economic environment has attracted much attention. May 13 – 15 Shanghai glue quotation shocks adjustment, a small margin, normal shipment of traders.

2. Short-term cutting in domestic rubber producing areas. Since last week, affected by high temperature, drought and mite hazards, some natural rubber production areas in China have been short-term cutting, and the supply of new rubber is tight.

EDTA

3. High temperature and drought affect foreign producing areas. According to local news, also affected by high temperature and drought, the production of new rubber in Southeast Asian rubber producing countries such as India decreased, and the demand of local tire enterprises was strong, which expressed concern about future supply.

In summary, business analysts believe that the recent trade situation and the impact of new rubber cutting on the natural rubber market have attracted much attention. On the 15th, Shanghai Rubber Night Market opened up 1.7%, and on the 16th, Shanghai Rubber Night Market rose sharply by 500-600 yuan/ton, closing up by about 5.2%. Business Association monitoring, Tianjiao spot quotation rose, the distribution price generally increased by 500-600 yuan/ton, some traders said that the market rose too much, leading to “no quotation”. Follow-up continued to pay attention to the trade situation and weather conditions in domestic and foreign rubber areas.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly crude oil market report on the 15th, cutting its global average daily oil demand growth forecast by 90,000 barrels to 1.3 million barrels in 2019.

The report predicts that global oil demand will average 100.4 billion barrels per day in 2019.

Bacillus thuringiensis

The report said that the global crude oil supply is facing great uncertainty due to the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, the situation in Libya and the pollution of Russian oil pipelines to Europe.

The report shows that in April this year, the world’s average daily oil supply fell by 300,000 barrels to 99.3 million barrels. Among them, Canada, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijani and Iran experienced the largest decline in supply.

Sodium Molybdate

Starting last Wednesday, the plastic futures contract 1909 broke through the bottom track of the box oscillation of 8,200 yuan/ton, showing a cliff-like decline. In the past five trading days, the 1909 contract dropped to 7650 yuan/ton from 8200 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of more than 6.7%, the lowest since February 2016. Although on Wednesday, due to the short-term decline of futures prices is too large and too far away from the 5-day average, futures prices showed signs of stopping falling, but the weak characteristics are obvious, lack of upward momentum.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

From the perspective of the average system, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 40-day and 60-day average began to show divergent short-term pattern, highlighting the strong momentum of short-term price decline. In terms of MACD indicators, green column entities continue to appear, and the length of entities rapidly expands, suggesting that the short power is growing rapidly. In addition, DIFF and DEA indicators are running below zero, indicating that the short power is dominant. It is expected that future plastic 1909 contract will continue the downward trend.

Benzalkonium chloride