I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the market price of cryolite this week has a stable trend. The average market price in this week is about 6350.00 yuan / ton, up 33.33 yuan / ton or 0.52% compared with last weekend, down 1.30% compared with last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the price trend of cryolite is stable this week, and there is no obvious price adjustment by the manufacturer within the week. As of August 18, Zibo Kunyu industry and trade cryolite offered 6500 yuan / ton; Changshu Hongjia fluorine Co., Ltd. cryolite offered 7200 yuan / ton; Jiaozuo Minli industry cryolite offered 6950 yuan / ton; Zhengzhou Tianrui crystal technology cryolite offered 6600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; Shandong Botao Group Co., Ltd. cryolite price 7000 yuan / ton, the enterprise shipped smoothly, and the transaction was acceptable.

Industry chain: the price trend of fluorite in the upstream of cryolite is stable this week, and the average price of domestic market is about 2866.67 yuan / ton in the week. The price trend of upstream domestic fluorite fluctuated at a low level. As of the 18th day, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2866.67 yuan / ton. In the near future, the domestic fluorite unit was started normally, the mine and flotation unit in the field were started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field was sufficient, and the price of downstream hydrofluoric acid remained at a low level in the near future. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the situation of fluorite in the field was poor, and the market price of fluorite was temporarily stable. In the aspect of downstream electrolytic aluminum, the trend of aluminum price this week increased. The price at the beginning of the week remained at about 13813.33 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week it was about 14016.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 1.47% in the week.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 4 kinds of commodities with a 5% increase or more, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are DMF (12.00%), hydrogen peroxide (11.62%) and sulfur (5.32%). There are 38 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 9.07%), phenol (- 7.16%) and isopropanol (- 6.22%). This week’s average was – 0.76%.

III. future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association, the current cryolite manufacturer’s factory quotation is multi-dimensional and stable, the device operates normally, the inventory is sufficient, and the shipment is acceptable. It is expected that the market of cryolite in the later stage will be mainly sorted and operated, with specific attention to market demand.

I. market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week is 4800 yuan / ton, which is stable.

II. Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4800 yuan / ton, including tax. The quotation is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4800 yuan / ton, which is stable. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene, and the factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4800 yuan / ton, including tax; the quotation of the manufacturer continues to be stable, and the demand for downstream resin and pesticide is general.

Industrial chain: upstream methanol situation. Since last Friday (10.11), the domestic methanol market has been surging and falling back. As of October 15, the average price of domestic methanol market is 2352 yuan / ton. The price is 12.11% higher than that of the same period last month, and 28.92% lower than that of the same period last year.

III. future forecast

The price of raw material methanol has gone down, and the market demand for POM is general. According to POM analysts of the business association, the price of POM may continue to maintain stable operation.

I. price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to move forward steadily this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1816.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1816.67 yuan / ton, up or down by 0.

II. Market analysis

Product: the overall market performance of sodium metabisulfite this week is average. The market price range of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is 1700-1950 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are around 1800-1850 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market is relatively abundant in stock, and the downstream trade entities still have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, with limited new orders and fast in and out. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industry chain: this week, the upstream soda price slightly increased by 1.52%, and the sulfur price increased by 5.32%. The slight recovery of raw material cost will support the market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

III. future forecast

Business analysts believe that the raw material cost support is getting stronger and individual enterprises’ quotation is increased, but most enterprises maintain the price unchanged. The market of Jiaoya is still mainly affected by the demand support, and it will take some time for the market to really turn better.

On October 17, the HFA commodity index was 88.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.80% from 140.43 (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 65.61% from 53.59, the lowest point on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. Up to now, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9780 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprise reflects that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field is sufficient at present, and the goods in the hydrofluoric acid field can not be moved in the near future. Due to the lack of improvement in downstream demand, the prices of some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers are stuck, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level of volatility.

The price of fluorite in the upstream market remained low. As of the 17th, the price of fluorite was 2866.67 yuan / ton. The decline in the price of upstream raw materials had a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market was at a low level due to the impact of the lower price of fluorite. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market is general, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 remains low. From the perspective of market supply, the market price of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the market supply capacity has declined, and the inventory pressure has been slowed down. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers maintain the air-conditioner, and the demand only decreases but not increases. The main price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-14000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is at a low level, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level, the market demand for refrigerants is reduced, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market declines. However, the transaction price in the market is low, and businesses purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

The transaction situation in the refrigerant market is poor, the unit operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low, the demand for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market is limited, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, but the manufacturer reflects that the loss is relatively serious, and Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may maintain a low level.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday following gains in the stock market, with investors hoping for a possible brexit agreement between the UK and the European Union, and signs that OPEC and its allies may further curb supply, Reuters reported.

But gains were limited as concerns about the global slowdown continued.

Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, rose 21 cents to $58.95 a barrel in 0310 GMT, about 0.3% higher than the closing price of the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate rose 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $52.97 a barrel.

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York, said: “with the mitigation of the two major tail risks of global demand (Sino US trade war and brexit), oil began to show some bullish positions.”

“Although it seems impossible to reach a broader trade agreement in the short term, the risk of a trade war between China and the United States is gradually diminishing.”

The final talks between the UK and the EU to reach a brexit agreement ahead of this week’s EU leaders’ summit have lasted from midnight to Wednesday, but it is not clear whether the UK can avoid the planned brexit on October 31.

Analysts said any agreement to avoid a “hard” or non agreed brexit should boost economic growth, which in turn should drive up oil and prices.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammed bajindo said that OPEC and its allies will “do everything possible” to maintain the stability of the oil market beyond 2020.

1. Trade name: standard aluminum ingot (99.70)

2. Latest price (October 16, 2019): 13896.67 yuan / ton

3. Analysis points:

Since the middle of September, aluminum prices have been falling continuously. On the one hand, the production capacity that was shut down for some reasons in the early stage has gradually recovered, and the domestic supply side pressure has been reflected in the market in advance.

It is reported that in the near future, about 50000 tons of hydropower capacity in the western part of Qinghai has been resumed; 500000 tons of affected capacity in the early stage of Xinjiang Xinfa has been resumed one after another; 450000 tons of capacity has been resumed in Weiqiao, Shandong, and the remaining capacity is still in the process of recovery; 250000 tons of capacity in the second phase of new Hengfeng, Baotou City, is expected to start power on and put into operation on October 15. After October, 200000 tons of creative metals, 100000 tons of Yunnan Shenhuo phase I, 150000 tons of Yunnan Qiya, 150000 tons of 100 mines and 250000 tons of Guangyuan Linfeng are planned to be put into production again, totaling about 850000 tons.

On the other hand, the main reason is that the early news of Indonesia’s ban on bauxite led to a sharp rise in aluminum prices. Based on the release of news that Indonesia’s bauxite accounts for 1-20% of the total import of domestic bauxite, the market estimates whether Indonesia’s ban on bauxite or not has limited impact on aluminum prices, and the expectation of long aluminum prices is broken. The price of aluminum ingot gradually returns to the actual supply and demand.

4. Future forecast: in the near future, the alumina price is relatively strong, the aluminum ingot cost support is strong, the superimposed social inventory is significantly lower than that in the early stage, and the overall fundamentals are good. In addition, at present, the aluminum ingot price basically returns the increase in the early stage, and the downward space is expected to be limited. In the later stage, attention is paid to the actual market situation.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, by October 16, the average price of organosilicon DMC was about 17266 yuan / ton, down by – 13.49% compared with October 8, the first day after the festival. At present, the market price of organosilicon DMC is about 17000-18000 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Products: after the national day, the silicone market set off waves. On the first day after the festival, on October 8, the silicone market ran smoothly. On October 9, with the increase of inquiry volume, the price fell rapidly. After the festival, the price dropped sharply, with the highest down quotation of 2000 yuan / ton. The situation of goods cleaning appeared. The organic silicon products of monomer enterprises are directly close to the cost price to receive orders. The transaction price of organic silicon DMC is as low as 16500 yuan / ton (cash delivery). The sharp drop in price has led to a positive mentality of downstream stock up, which has aroused the enthusiasm of most downstream enterprises for rush purchase. Most monomer enterprises have obtained the first large order after the festival. On October 10, a small number of factories began to call back the quotation, and the quotation was increased by 200-300 yuan / ton. Due to the increase of the order quantity, the big monomer factories had a clear attitude of looking forward to the increase. The monomer factories announced that they began to arrange the production one after another, and the later order price was expected to rise back. On October 14, the price of the mechanical silicon DMC products of most monomer factories was still stable, and the price increase was not obvious. On October 16, there was an economic report. The latest quotation of the seller is lowered again. Up to now, the silicone market as a whole is still at the bottom to be increased.

Industry chain: after the national day, the price of raw rubber, 107 rubber and silicone oil of downstream products of silicone DMC fluctuated with the fluctuation of the overall silicone market. In the early stage of the festival, affected by the overall decline of the silicone market, the transaction price of raw rubber was as low as around 17200 yuan / ton (delivered by spot exchange), and silicone oil made a large profit synchronously. The offer of 107 rubber brand enterprises was as low as 17500-18500 yuan / ton (delivered by spot exchange). To), the low price promotes the purchase enthusiasm of most terminal downstream enterprises, and each single enterprise increases the intention order. In the next few days, with the price of organosilicon DMC rising, the price of downstream products also fell back. At present, DMC, 107 rubber, raw rubber, silicone oil, etc. are in a continuous rising trend.

III. future forecast

Business analysts believe that: it is expected that in late October, the organosilicon DMC may usher in a pick-up.

According to the survey data of the business agency, the market of soda ash in East China was temporarily stable on the 16th, with an average market price of about 1776.67 yuan / ton. On October 15, the commodity index of light soda ash was 91.11, up 1.37 points from yesterday, down 22.70% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 44.28% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In terms of supply: this week, the soda plant of Kunshan Jinggang Industrial Group Co., Ltd. was shut down for maintenance, the price of soda was raised, the plant area in Mengzhou, Jinshan has not yet been put into operation, Jiangsu Huachang and Zhongyan Jilantai were shut down for maintenance, and the overall starting load of Tianjin Bohua and Henan Jinshan enterprises was high; after the national day, the downstream users were not enthusiastic about taking the goods, and the attitude of purchasing on demand was obvious, and the storage of soda plant increased. Add.

Demand: weak downstream demand of light alkali, sufficient inventory of glass manufacturers, little change in demand, general downstream market, weak support for soda market.

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the starting load of domestic soda ash manufacturers has remained high recently, and the supply of goods is sufficient. At present, the stocks of soda ash manufacturers are mainly light soda, and the end users mainly purchase on demand. The demand of downstream float glass for heavy alkali has little change, and it is expected that the market of soda ash will be mainly consolidated in the later stage.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 15, the average price of n-butanol in the mainstream area was 6350 yuan / ton (including tax). Compared with last Monday (October 8), the price of n-butanol in the mainstream area decreased by 166 yuan / ton (including tax), down by – 2.56%. At present, the price of n-butanol in the mainstream in China is around 6300-6700 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: after the national day, the n-butanol market has been in a state of continuous shock. On Monday (October 14) this week, the overall market was stable, and the price was slightly reduced again. However, due to the expectation of northern manufacturers, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market has been weak, and the downstream just needs replenishment. At present, the quotation of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. is stable. The ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China is around 6400 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in East China is 6650 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of South China is around 6850 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in early October, it is the National Day holiday. Due to the policy of limited production and restriction, the price of propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, is generally stable during the holiday, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of enterprises rose. At present, the market turnover is about 7450-7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7450 yuan / ton. Refinery stocks are slightly tight.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it is expected that the market price and the overall trend of n-butanol products will rise in the late October on the premise of the recovery of the operating rate.

On October 15, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 66.42, down 0.13 points from yesterday, down 44.71% from 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 37.17% from 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In recent years, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market continues to decline. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is low. The downstream factories maintain rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure increases, and the high-end transaction is blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is declining. In East China, 6700-7000 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and 6100-6300 yuan / ton for naphthalene process; in North China, 6700-6900 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for phthalic anhydride market. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of phthalic anhydride is also strong. The demand for phthalic anhydride decreased and the price trend of phthalic anhydride decreased slightly.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6900 yuan / ton. Due to the restart of maintenance devices of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of goods inside the site has increased, the import price of phthalic anhydride in the port area has declined, and the quotation has declined. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port has declined, the port inventory is low, and the quotation of phthalic anhydride in the external market has fluctuated and fallen. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are given. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market continued to decline due to the drop of upstream raw material phthalic acid price. The downstream DOP price is slightly lower, the price of isooctanol is lower, and the DOP cost is lower. The price of DOP is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and declining, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is slightly reduced to 7600-7900 yuan / ton, the downstream price trend is declining, but the upstream ox price is firm, affected by the cost support, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a low volatility in the later period.