According to the data monitored by the business community, as of May 24, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica was 4733.33 yuan / ton. The downstream just needed to purchase, the manufacturers were active in shipping, the upstream support was general, the overall operating rate was normal, the negotiation atmosphere was flat, the mainstream price range was 4000-5000 yuan / ton, and the price was mainly stable in the short term.

The domestic rubber grade silica market has a stable overall trend with stable price. The main contract orders are the main ones, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere is flat. The number of new orders is limited. Most of the new orders are mainly discussed. The merchants have a stable mentality and general negotiation atmosphere. The merchants are cautious in taking the goods and slow in shipping. The overall market supply and demand is balanced, the shipping is normal, and the inventory is general.

Chemical industry index: on May 23, the chemical industry index was 1056 points, 1 point lower than yesterday, 2.58% lower than 1084 points (2021-05-13), the highest point in the cycle, and 76.59% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

According to the silica analysts of business news agency, in the short term, silica maintains stable operation, the downstream demand power is insufficient, the rising trend information is not obvious, the inventory is normal, the main supply is contract customers, and the number of new orders is limited.

Since the beginning of this year, the global monetary quantitative easing, supply and demand factors have jointly driven the commodity market to a strong upward trend. Steel, nonferrous metals and other sectors have successively broken through the ten-year high. With the increasing expectation of policy supervision, the crazy commodity market has cooled significantly, and the current price of this cycle has collectively “stepped on the brake”.

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of May 21, the BPI of the commodity price index was 1055 points, 10 points lower than that at the beginning of the week, 1.31% lower than the highest point of 1069 points in the cycle (May 13, 2021), and 59.85% higher than the lowest point of 660 points (February 3, 2016)（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of specific products, there are 114 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices, accounting for 52.05% of the total. They are mainly concentrated in chemical industry (36 kinds in total) and steel (17 kinds in total), and the commodities with a decrease of more than 5% are mainly concentrated in steel plate; The top three commodities were isooctanol (- 12.97%), I-beam (- 10.80%) and channel steel (- 10.77%). This week’s average rise and fall was – 1.03%, which is the first decline in nearly seven weeks.

The domestic futures market also continued to “cool down”. On May 21, the black series went green again in a large area. By the end of the afternoon, thermal coal in the main contract fell 9.31% to 713 yuan / ton, which is a rare one-day decline since the thermal coal futures were listed. The main contracts of coking coal, coke and iron ore also fell to varying degrees. Coking coal fell 5.74% to close at 1701 yuan / ton; Coke fell 4.3% to 2371 yuan / ton; Iron ore fell 3.39% to close at 1096.5 yuan / ton.

When the hot commodity market comes to an end, is it a sign of peaking or a short-term accumulation? According to the business association, the trend of carbon peak and environmental protection production restriction industry is strong, and the downstream demand side is still strong, especially for steel, coal, copper and aluminum industries and some chemical products, it is hard to say that the commodity bull market is over. It is expected that in the future, the trend of different kinds of bulk commodities is expected to be differentiated, and the power of comprehensive and sustained rise is limited.

The price of lead market (5.17-5.21) rose this week, with the average price of domestic market at the beginning of the week at 15100 yuan / ton, 15583 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 3.2% in the week.

The lead commodity index on May 23 was 94.84, which was flat with yesterday, down 29.23% from the highest point 134.01 (2016-11-29) in the cycle, up 27.08% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015（ Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

This week, the trend of Lun lead shock is mainly, the first half of the week is affected by the downward impact of the dollar index, the overall upward metal market, and the lead Lun continued to rebound. The weekend was affected by the high LME lead inventory, and the price was down. Overall, the trend of the week was better, and the lead Lun lead rose about 3%. Shanghai lead rebounded this week, after a slight fall on Thursday, the market continued to rise, up more than 3 per cent a week.

The trend of spot lead market this week is close to the trend of Shanghai lead. With the completion of maintenance in main production area, the overall domestic construction rate has been improved. Due to the tight supply of lead ore in upstream, the overall increase of the commencement rate is limited. Downstream storage enterprises are still in the off-season, consumption is low, and the lead ingot inventory is on the high side.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 5 commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous plate in the commodity price rise and fall list in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), the top three commodities are lead (3.20%), silicon metal (1.82%), titanium concentrate (1.03%). There are 16 commodities falling on a month-on-month basis, with 3 commodities falling more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 products were magnesium (-6.85%), aluminum (-6.33%), praseodymium and neodymium alloy (-6.30%). This week, the average rise and fall was -1.95 per cent. Most of the goods fell this week.

The business agency predicts that the downstream is in the off-season, and the storage enterprises purchase is mainly on demand, and the consumption level has not improved, the price of lead ingot will still fluctuate mainly, and it is expected to recover in the peak consumption season in July and August.

Spot market: according to the monitoring of the business community, recently, the quotation of pure polyester yarn market has been stable and falling, and some of it has been falling. In Shandong, 32S pure polyester yarn was reported at about 14100.00 yuan / ton, the sales of pure polyester yarn has weakened, some preferential policies have been increased, polyester cotton yarn has been temporarily stable, the inventory is normal, and some of them are in short supply.

Upstream polyester staple fiber: in the near future, the direct spinning polyester short futures fluctuated, and the spot remained horizontal finishing. The main focus of semi smooth 1.4d trading was 6600-6750 yuan / ton, leaving the factory or short delivery, and the futures and cash basis was maintained. The downstream just needed to purchase. Most of the factory transactions were just needed today, and some of the higher production and sales were 200-500%. Jiangsu and Zhejiang half light 1.4d mainstream 6600-6750 yuan / ton, Fujian half light 1.4d mainstream 6700-6750 around, Shandong, Hebei mainstream 6650-6750 around.

In terms of downstream demand: the grey cloth market has been pushed up on a month on month basis, and the price index has risen slightly. Recently, the marketing has been pushed up on a month on month basis, and the orders of grey cloth manufacturers have increased on a month on month basis, and the grey cloth price has risen slightly. But the overall market of grey cloth end is still insufficient, some orders have increased, and the overall delivery is general. Recently, the sales of clothing fabrics in the fabric market of China Textile City fell down on a month on month basis, while the transaction volume in the mass fabric market fell on a month on month basis, and the price volume fell slightly. In spring, the spot turnover of fabrics decreased significantly, while in summer, some fabric orders were insufficient, and the price dropped slightly.

Suggestions: due to PTA supply reduction, the cost side has certain support. In terms of demand, there is replenishment in the early stage, and there are generally more raw material reserves. In the short term, it is expected that the overall market will fluctuate and fall slightly. Due to the high price of raw materials this year and the poor reception of new orders in the downstream, the demand in the downstream will be partially insufficient, the market trend will be flat, and the enthusiasm for fabric subscription will decline; In addition, due to the partial reduction of orders from some traders and weaving manufacturers, the supply of fabrics in summer is insufficient, the spot transaction and order delivery shrink month on month, the partial batch orders of fabrics in summer drop slightly, the order delivery of autumn fabrics is relatively limited, the operating rate of weaving enterprises is insufficient, and the production and sales of printing and dyeing enterprises are relatively limited. It is expected that the enthusiasm of public product subscription will drop slightly on a month on month basis, and the overall market transaction will show a small drop trend.

1、 Price data

As of May 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 6662.50 yuan / ton, down 1.08% compared with 6735.00 yuan / ton on May 17. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 6700 yuan / ton.

As of May 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic Di refined straight run naphtha was 6445.00 yuan / ton, down 1.45% compared with 6540.00 yuan / ton on May 17. The actual transaction price of Di refined straight run naphtha was about 6450 yuan / ton.

On May 23, the naphtha commodity index was 82.23, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.87% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 94.67% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of local refining naphtha continued to fall this week. Affected by the policy, the price rose on Monday. The international crude oil fell sharply this week, and the naphtha market fell back.

Upstream: the sharp drop in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s concern that the surge of new cases in Asia will further depress the demand for crude oil, as well as the new progress of the US Iran nuclear agreement to release the expectation of increased supply; In addition, the probability of US inflation causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of toluene rose first and then fell. On May 16, the price of toluene was 5986.2 yuan / ton, and on May 23, it was 5926 yuan / ton, down 0.5%. This week, the price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell. On May 16, the price of mixed xylene was 5990 yuan / ton, and on May 23, the price was 5960 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton or 0.5% from last week. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on the PX market.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have increased month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that has increased by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coke (5.59%), petroleum coke (3.06%) and coking coal (2.92%). A total of 11 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three declining products were liquefied natural gas (- 7.60%), WTI crude oil (- 5.25%), Brent crude oil (- 5.24%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 1.04%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business news agency believe that the sharp decline of international crude oil has aggravated the wait-and-see mood of naphtha market, but it just needs support, and it is expected that the naphtha market will rise in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business society, domestic maleic anhydride market price fell this week, and the average price of maleic anhydride by May 23 remained at about 11250 yuan / ton, down 3.43% from 11650 yuan / ton on May 14, down 0.88% compared with the same period last month.

The maleic anhydride commodity index was 105.98 on May 23, which was flat with yesterday, down 14.30% from the highest point 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), up 107.07% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020（ Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to start a small decline this week. The international crude oil fell sharply, leading to the decline of chemical products price; The downstream unsaturated resin has a stable start rate, and the resin market is weak and needs to be purchased. As of 23 days, about 10500 yuan / ton of solid anhydrides in Shandong Province, 11500 yuan / ton of liquid anhydrides in Jiangsu Province, 10600 yuan / ton of solid anhydrides in Shanxi, 10600 yuan / ton of solid anhydrides in Hebei Province, 11000 yuan / ton of solid anhydrides in South China.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene fell continuously this week, with the average price of pure benzene of 8230 yuan / ton on May 16 and 8080 yuan / ton on May 23, down 150 yuan / T, or 1.82% from last week. This week, the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province was down, which was 8200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 7900 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 300 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane is down, and Shandong price is 4300 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 24 commodities rising in the chemical industry sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), of which more than 5% of the commodities are 1, accounting for 1.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were yellow phosphorus (6.99%), caprolactam (2.92%), polysilicon (2.89%). There are 36 commodities falling on the same month, 6 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The first three products were isooctanol (-12.97%), isopropanol (-8.49%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (-8.08%). This week, the average rise and fall was -0.67%.

3、 Post market forecast

According to the analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society, the international crude oil sharp decline aggravates the wait-and-see mentality of maleic anhydride market, the difference between supply and demand in maleic anhydride market is aggravating, the main factories have limited volume, the downstream just needs to purchase mainly, the available goods in the site are less, the maleic anhydride price is weak, and the downstream wait-seeing sentiment is strong, and it is expected that the price of maleic anhydride will be weak in the near future.

1、 Price data

According to the data from the business club, the price of petroleum coke products from domestic refineries continued to rise. The average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market on May 23 was 2358.67 yuan / ton, up 3.06% from 2288.67 yuan / ton on May 17. On May 23, the petroleum coke commodity index was 183.45, which was the same as that of yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 174.26% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the storage of local refined petroleum coke was low, and the price continued to rise. The downstream demand of low sulfur coke was poor, and the price fell slightly. Aluminum enterprises have good profits, some refineries have been overhauled, and supply and demand have double effects. The price of medium and high sulfur coke continues to rise.

Upstream: the sharp drop in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s concern that the surge of new cases in Asia will further depress the demand for crude oil, as well as the new progress of the US Iran nuclear agreement to release the expectation of increased supply; In addition, the probability of US inflation causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases.

Downstream: the downstream demand of carbon enterprises is stable, and the market price is stable, but the rising price of raw materials puts pressure on the cost of carbon enterprises; The price of calcined coke was basically stable; This week, the price of electrolytic aluminum in the lower reaches fell, reaching 18460.00 yuan / ton as of May 23; Recently, the silicon metal market is greatly affected by the factors of supply and demand. The relationship between supply and demand is unbalanced, and the short-term silicon price is still strong.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have increased month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that has increased by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coke (5.59%), petroleum coke (3.06%) and coking coal (2.92%). A total of 11 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three declining products were liquefied natural gas (- 7.60%), WTI crude oil (- 5.25%), Brent crude oil (- 5.24%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 1.04%.

According to the petroleum coke analysts of business society, the storage of petroleum coke from local refining company is low. At present, the market supply and demand are good, and the price of electrolytic aluminum is still high. It is expected that petroleum coke will be high in the near future.

This week, the price of ethylene oxide was stable, and the mainstream ex factory price of ethylene oxide was 7700 yuan / ton.

As of today, the latest price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is US $1075 per ton, while the latest price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is US $1020 per ton. The main reason for the decline of ethylene price is that the upstream crude oil and naphtha are bearish. In addition, the demand in the region continues to be weak, and the support is weakened. The decline of raw materials causes the mood fluctuation of some downstream enterprises. Although the cost price center began to fall, the price of ethylene is still at a high level, and the non integrated units are still operating near the cost line.

In terms of equipment, Fushun Petrochemical Company is currently under maintenance; The annual capacity of ethylene oxide unit of Shanghai Petrochemical line 2 will be increased to 168000 tons after incremental revamping; The overhaul of Nanjing Dena was postponed to July.

At present, the market is affected by the weak demand, and the overall operation is weak and stable. The supply and demand side is relatively abundant. Manufacturers mainly ship goods. In the short term, there is little chance of reversal when the raw materials are not obviously favorable.

The market is expected to remain weak and stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, after half a month of the rise in hydrogen peroxide in April, the weak market started, and the overall rise of hydrogen peroxide in April was 3.22%. After May 1, the trend of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline. Since May 11, the terminal rigid demand increased, and the hydrogen peroxide started to rise. As of May 21, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 1120 yuan / ton, up more than 10%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide in business agency from February 22 to May 16, 2021, it can be seen that after the Spring Festival, the hydrogen peroxide market has weakened, with a decline of more than 3.6%. Hydrogen peroxide showed a big rise in early March, up more than 5%, after the big rise began to dive, continue the weak market. In April, in the middle of the month, hydrogen peroxide rose again, up more than 5 percent, and it was still a decline after the big rise. After May 1, hydrogen peroxide was in weak operation, and the rising mode was opened in the middle month, rising to May 21, up more than 10%.

On May 21, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers quoted the following:

The price of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi Chemical Industry is 1080 yuan / ton, which is 130 yuan / ton higher than that in early May; The price of hydrogen peroxide fertilizer in Zhengyuan of Hebei Province is 1060 yuan / ton, and the price increases by 100 yuan / ton; The price of hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng chemical industry in Anhui Province is 1220 yuan / ton, and the price rises by 70 yuan / ton; The price of hydrogen peroxide in Shuangyang high tech chemical industry in Hunan Province is 1200 yuan / ton, which is stable.

Terminal rigidity demand increases the rise of hydrogen peroxide

In mid April, due to the increase of the purchasing demand of terminal paper industry, and the shutdown and maintenance of hydrogen peroxide unit in Quansheng, Anhui Province, the manufacturer, the inventory of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers was low, and the supply was tight, and the factory price was constantly increased. Hydrogen peroxide staged a wave of rise, up half a month, and then gradually callback.

After May 1, the performance of hydrogen peroxide was poor. In the week of May 11, the purchase of hydrogen peroxide terminal paper industry increased, the hydrogen peroxide was again strong, and the rise was restarted. The hydrogen peroxide enterprises kept increasing the factory price. The average price of hydrogen peroxide Market exceeded the 1000 yuan mark, up more than 6%.

In the week of May 18, the terminal rigid demand continued to improve. At the end of the month, Shandong Mingshui chemical industry had a stop plan. Supported by Lido, the price of hydrogen peroxide still kept rising, up more than 10% compared with that on November 11.

On May 21, the price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper commodity was 157.52, down 0.8 points from yesterday, down 35.97% from 246.00 (2019-10-21) in the cycle, up 46.48% from the lowest point 107.54 on January 29, 2019（ Note: cycle refers to January 1, 2017 to present)

Corrugated paper prices have been stable after May 1 holiday, but with the cancellation of the preferential policy for nine dragon paper industry, the prices of raw paper in some regions have been slightly increased. But recently, with the recent rise of raw material price of waste paper, corrugated paper price has been rising. The paper industry has a high enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide, and the hydrogen peroxide market has been improved and continues to rise.

From 16 to 19, the price of raw paper of Jiulong multi base kept sending out the price rise information, which also led to the rise of corrugated paper price of the second and third grade paper factories. Because of the rising of the price of the original paper, the cost of packaging paper enterprises has increased dramatically, and the downstream board factory has issued a notice of price increase many times. At present, box board and corrugated paper have been rising well. Since this month, Jiulong has been up 4 times in a row, and the market is more positive.

Li Bing, an analyst with hydrogen peroxide at the business agency, thinks: hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stop and repair, the demand for end-end paper market increases, and the market price is easy to rise and fall after the hydrogen peroxide is supported by the strong support.

The growth of commercial crude oil stocks in the United States, coupled with the severe epidemic situation in some countries, led to a sharp drop in international oil prices. In addition, the downstream demand is low for several days, and the sales pressure of businesses is increasing, so they have no choice but to open the window of downward adjustment. According to business news agency data, as of May 20, the price of MTBE was 5956 yuan / ton, down 2.39% month on month and up 65.46% year on year.

The market price of MTBE is about 50-150 yuan / ton today. Crude oil has stopped rising and falling, but the market mentality is bad. In addition, gasoline market sales are general, and the demand for raw materials is flat. Although the main refineries in Shandong are overhauled, the demand in the area is general and the market is not easy to rise or fall. In the southern market, recently, the imported goods have come to Hong Kong one after another, and the supply is relatively abundant, but the demand is flat, and the merchants are slow in shipping.

In terms of external market, as of May 20, the FOB Gulf price of the United States closed at US $788.63-788.99/t, down by US $20.91/t, the FOB ara price of Europe closed at US $720-720.5/t, down by US $24 / T, and the FOB Singapore price of Asia closed at US $725-727 / t, down by US $6 / T.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Singapore 725-727 USD / T – US $6 / T

U.S.A FOB Bay 788.63-788.99 USD / T – US $20.91/t

Europe FOB ARA 720-720.5 USD / T – US $24 / T

In the near future, it is difficult to change the flat demand situation, and the market will continue to be in the transition of consolidation. Business community MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market in the short term mainly narrow consolidation.