1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fluctuated this week, and the spot prices of various brands fell first and then rose. As of March 25, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 16100 yuan / ton, up or down by + 2.11% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam rose this week. International crude oil drives the price of pure benzene to rise and the cost side to strengthen. The petrochemical plant raised the price of caprolactam, which stopped falling and rebounded due to the current insufficient supply in the field and the weakening of bad news. It is suggested to pay attention to the trend of raw material market and changes in supply.

The upstream caprolactam price recovered, and the cost side support of PA6 strengthened from weak. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant has limited change this week and is generally stable at 70%. On the cost side, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has not changed substantially, and the international crude oil price has risen again after falling. The supply side of PA6 continues the previous abundant pattern, the demand of downstream enterprises just needs to be stable, and the on-site trading situation has improved slightly. The supply of low-end goods has been digested, and the confidence of sellers has been strengthened. In the second half of the week, try to support the price and adjust the account. Recently, the logistics obstruction in many places caused by health events has not ended, which also affects the trading of some PA6. At present, PA6 is porous and intertwined, and the market situation is biased towards cost side guidance.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 fell first and then rose this week, the trend of caprolactam recovered, and the cost support of PA6 increased. The terminal demand has improved slightly, and the downstream buying has digested some low-cost sources. It is expected that the PA6 market trend may be stronger in the short term.

Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (March 24): 19166.67 yuan / ton

The market price of epichlorohydrin fell on March 24, down 0.52% compared with the previous trading day and up 1.95% compared with the price on February 24. At present, the cost support of propylene method has increased, the cost pressure of glycerol method still exists, and some large factories have reduced their load, but the demand side is not followed up enough. In addition, the transportation in some regions is limited, and the market mentality is under pressure.

It is expected that the cyclopropane market may be dominated by weakness in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6875.75 yuan / ton on March 22 and 6975.75 yuan / ton on March 23, with a single day increase of 1.45%, an increase of 5.76% compared with March 1.

On the 23rd, the domestic propane market price continued to be the main player. The increase range of Shandong propane market was 100-150 yuan / ton, and the increase slowed down. The decline in international crude oil prices has brought limited support to the market, with little change in market supply and weak demand. It is expected that there is limited room for the continued rise of propane Market in the short term.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price: 19775 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China increased by 0.76% compared with the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market was sorted upward. Kostron’s guidance price has been raised, the mentality of on-site cargo holders has been boosted, the offer has risen, and the quotation of industrial dealers has risen simultaneously. In the downstream, affected by the epidemic situation in various regions, the logistics traffic has been blocked, the demand in the terminal market is weak, and the demand for entering the market is mainly for purchasing. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 19000-19500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19500-20100 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Aftermarket forecast: the TDI market is strong in the later stage, and the specific attention is paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (March 21): 19625 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China increased by 2.08% compared with the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market was sorted upward. At present, there is little change in the start-up of devices in the main domestic TDI factories, the spot market continues to be tight, the factory quotation is strong, the impact of the closing epidemic, the logistics traffic is blocked, the demand in the terminal market is weak, and the market demand is mainly for purchasing. According to the market news on Monday, kostron’s guiding price has been raised, the mentality of the holders is optimistic, and the quotation has increased slightly. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 19000-19200 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19500-20000 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Aftermarket forecast: the TDI market is strong in the later stage, and the specific attention is paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene fell broadly this week and rebounded on Friday. On March 11, the price was 8750 yuan / ton; On Friday (March 18), the price was 8190 yuan / ton, down 6.4% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 50.55%.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the first half of the week, international crude oil fell continuously and the cost support weakened; Superimposed on the impact of national public health events, the transportation in some areas was limited, the transaction of mixed xylene was blocked, and the price fell broadly. With the decline of mixed xylene price and the increase of large downstream households’ purchase in the market, crude oil rebounded broadly on Thursday, and the industry’s confidence in supporting the price was rekindled.

In terms of external market, the external market rebounded after the sharp decline of mixed xylene this week. On Thursday (March 17), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $1050.5/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of US $126 / ton, or 10.71%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 1074 US dollars / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 129 US dollars / ton, or 10.72%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rebounded broadly in a single day after falling continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, although the tension between Russia and Ukraine remained, the supply concerns eased. In addition, the market was worried that the excessively rising oil price would affect the demand and economy, and the oil price continued to decline. However, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is uncertain, and the International Energy Agency predicts that Russian oil production may decrease by 3 million barrels / day from April. Concerns about reduced supply have boosted the broad rebound of international oil prices in a single day. As of March 18, Brent fell $4.74 / barrel, or 4.21%; WTI fell $4.63/barrel, or 4.23%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price fell this week. On Friday (March 18), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, down 2.11% from last week and up 38.81% from the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China stabilized this week. On Friday (March 18), the price of ox in East China was 9000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 45.16% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rebounded slightly after falling this week. The price was 9976 yuan / ton on March 11 and 9616.2 yuan / ton on March 18, down 3.61% from last week and 36.54% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, there is still uncertainty about the future trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the risk of oil price rise still exists, and the short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

At present, the spot supply of mixed xylene is tight, and with the support of high crude oil prices, the market is reluctant to sell. However, domestic public health events affect transportation and the demand side is limited. On the whole, mixed xylene still fluctuates with the trend of crude oil. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil, gasoline and diesel, the dynamics of mixed xylene ports and devices, and the impact of downstream market and device dynamics on the price of mixed xylene.

Trade name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price: 6550 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell on March 17, down 0.55% compared with the previous trading day. Due to the decline of crude oil price, the price of raw liquid wax decreased today, and the trend is downward in the short term. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of raw liquid chlorine was blocked and the price was generally reduced. At present, the demand for chlorinated paraffin is weak, and the operating rate of enterprises is reduced. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is about 6300 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China is about 6700 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui is about 6500 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the price of chlorinated paraffin is expected to fall in the short term.

Trade name: DMF

Latest price (March 16): 15500.00 yuan / ton

The price of DMF is dominated by weak operation, and the focus of negotiation is weak. Compared with the previous day, the price has fallen by 0.64%. At present, the mainstream price is about 15500 yuan / ton. At present, the manufacturer is operating at a high price, the overall market is stable and weak, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. At present, there is no pressure on inventory, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Future forecast: the DMF market is expected to be weak in the short term.

Trade name: diammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3640 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of diammonium phosphate was stable on March 15, which was stable compared with the previous trading day. At present, there are sufficient orders for diammonium. Raw materials operate at a high level, the cost support is good, and the market of diammonium is strong. Most enterprises suspend quotation and do not receive payment for the time being, and mainly issue early-stage orders. Today, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3600-3650 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

Future forecast: diammonium phosphate will be consolidated at a high level in the short term.

Market analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory tax price of 99.9% of the mainstream areas was 40666.67 yuan / ton on the 14th. Compared with Friday, the price of magnesium ingot fell by 1500 yuan per ton.

Due to the poor apparent demand, the slowdown of downstream inquiry and procurement, it is difficult for the terminal to accept the high price. Affected by the expected decline of environmental protection policies, the magnesium plant is more willing to go to the warehouse and sell at a lower price according to the market. In terms of cost, the ferrosilicon market operated steadily today. Coal prices were subject to price limit control again and special supervision actions were carried out in some coal areas. The current inventory level returned to rationality slightly, the disk level fell back, the rising momentum of coal and ferrosilicon was restrained, and the logic of magnesium ingot production cost support collapsed.

Business analysts believe that due to the demand of next month, the price of magnesium ingots may be under pressure in the short term, and the overall decline is expected to be limited.