1、 Price trend
According to the data of the bulk list of business community, aniline fell slightly this week. On July 29, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11350-11800 yuan / ton; On August 5, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11200-11600 yuan / ton, down 0.34% from last week and up 4.67% from the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
In terms of cost, pure benzene: this week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port increased by 4000 tons, and the inventory is still in a tight state. After filling the empty space at the end of the month, the speed of picking up goods at the downstream has slowed down significantly. In addition, most of the downstream have suffered losses, and the resistance to high price pure benzene has increased. The economic shutdown and maintenance have increased, and the demand for pure benzene has decreased. Due to poor downstream demand, Sinopec has lowered its listing price for many times, driving the market price down continuously. On Friday (August 5), the price of pure benzene was 8100-8300 yuan / ton (the average price was 8317 yuan / ton), which was 6.47% lower than last week and 9.15% higher than the same period last year.
Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid continued to decline this week. On July 29, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2750 yuan / ton, and on August 5, the price was 2683 yuan / ton, down 2.42% from last week and 13.35% from the same period last year.
|Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)|
The cost is weak and falling. The downstream of aniline is mainly due to the need to pick up goods. The fundamentals are weak and the aniline is under pressure.
3、 Future market expectation
In terms of cost and pure benzene, bad news: the trend of cost is unstable and the support for pure benzene market is insufficient. The downstream follow-up of pure benzene is poor, the shutdown maintenance is relatively concentrated, and the demand for pure benzene is reduced. The aromatics units of Qilu Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical were restarted, and the expected supply increment in the later period. Good news: the port inventory of pure benzene is low, and the short-term tight supply still supports the price of pure benzene. On the whole, the pure benzene market has concentrated bad news, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise.
In terms of nitric acid, the delivery of nitric acid is flat, and it is expected that the weak operation will prevail.
There is still a possibility that the cost side will fall. The basic side of aniline is still weak, and it is expected that the price will be weak. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of Aniline Unit dynamics on aniline price.