The copper market weakened and declined this week (March 16-20)

1. Trend Analysis

According to data monitored by Business Society, copper prices declined slightly this week, closing at 95,813.33 yuan per ton by the 20th, down 3.54% from the start of the week but up 17.52% year-on-year.
According to the weekly price trend chart from Business Society, copper prices have seen three declines and three increases over the past three months, with a slight drop this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventories rose slightly, reaching 335,425 tons by the end of the week, up 7.65% from the beginning of the week.
Macro perspective: The overnight Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting delivered a strong hawkish signal, coupled with the sharp escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions, instantly freezing global risk asset sentiment.
Supply side: The resumption of production in major copper-producing countries such as Peru and Chile, combined with the commissioning of new mines in Africa, has shifted global copper concentrate supply from shortage to surplus.
Demand side: The traditional peak season of “Golden Three” did not arrive as expected, with cautious inquiries from downstream buyers and low but inconsistent procurement. The continuous deterioration in real estate data (new construction projects down 23.1%) directly dragged down cable and home appliance consumption.
In summary: Copper prices remain high year-on-year, which has dampened end consumption. Under the hawkish pressure from the Federal Reserve, financial attributes dominate pricing, leading to significant short-term adjustment pressure on copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will primarily experience a weak adjustment in the short term.