Under the multiple game of cost weakening, supply contraction, and weak demand, the PTA market has entered a phase of correction since mid March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.77% from March 17th.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
On March 23rd, New York time, international crude oil futures collapsed across the board. As of the close, NYMEX May crude oil futures plummeted $10.10, a decrease of 10.28%, with a settlement price of $88.13 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil fell $12.25 in May, a decrease of 10.9%, closing at $99.94 per barrel, falling below the 100 yuan mark; Brent crude oil fell 9.9% in June, to $95.92 per barrel. Stimulated by news from the US, oil prices plummeted by nearly 15% during trading. Subsequently, Iranian officials denied dialogue with the US, resulting in a slight narrowing of the decline. The long short game was at its peak on the market, and PTA cost support weakened.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the PTA industry will be in a capacity vacuum period in 2026, with no new production capacity added. Coupled with the compression of enterprise processing fees, PTA production enterprises will actively reduce their workload for maintenance. Due to severe cost fluctuations, the difference in PTA spot processing has been significantly reduced, resulting in an increase in production cuts and shutdowns of domestic facilities. The current industry operating rate is only 77%, with supply side contraction supporting price increases.
In terms of demand, after PTA prices surged, downstream polyester and weaving enterprises faced a sharp decline in their willingness to purchase high priced raw materials, resulting in sluggish production and sales, and insufficient support for high priced demand. The shortage of overseas orders and the rebound of polyester finished product inventory have further suppressed the recovery of terminal demand, becoming an important driving force for the PTA market downturn.
Business analysts believe that the PTA maintenance plan for the second quarter exceeds 8 million tons, and the logic of supply contraction remains unchanged. In addition, PTA processing fees are still at a low level, and the downward space is limited. However, there are still suppressing factors, and the trend of crude oil and PX prices, as well as the evolution of geopolitical conflicts, directly determine the direction of the cost side. At the same time, the recovery strength of terminal demand is questionable, and the shortage of overseas orders and high inventory of enterprises may continue to affect procurement sentiment. Short term fluctuations in the funding situation may also exacerbate market volatility.
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