1、 Market trend of synthetic rubber

In 2019, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was mainly in a fluctuating trend

In 2019, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was mainly in shock trend. Taking August as the watershed, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell in a narrow range before August; after August, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose first and then fell rapidly. In 2019, the high price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is 12900 yuan / ton on September 27, and the low price is 10450 yuan / ton on July 18, which can be roughly divided into six stages

In the first stage, before March 2019, due to the lack of supply in the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market around the lunar new year, traders have a strong willingness to hold prices, with prices above 11700 yuan / ton;

In the second stage, from the beginning of March to the middle of April, with the recovery of petrochemical plants, the supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and the downstream starts are not as expected. The overall performance of the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, and the price drops to 11000 yuan / ton. In the third stage, from the middle of April to the middle of June, on the one hand, the price of raw materials fluctuates up and down, on the other hand, the downstream starts gradually recover, and the price of cis-1,2-polybutadiene rubber is maintained at 11200 yuan/ Small shocks above tons;

In the fourth stage, from the middle of June to the end of July, the supervision of environmental protection became more strict, the operating rate of downstream tire and product factories declined, and the price of raw material butadiene fell, the contradiction between upstream and downstream supply and demand became larger, and the price of cis-1,5-polybutadiene rubber fell all the way to around 10500 yuan / ton;

In the fifth stage, from the end of July to the middle of November, under the pressure of the rising cost of crude oil and butadiene in the early stage, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply to 12900 yuan / ton along the way. Then, with the collapse of cost and the continuous lack of demand, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell sharply to 10725 yuan / ton along the way, forming a roller coaster trend of rapid rise and fall;

In the sixth stage, from the middle of November to the end of the year, on the one hand, the price of natural rubber rose, which led to the bullish atmosphere of synthetic rubber; on the other hand, the stock of market traders was low, with strong willingness to stand up, and the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose slightly.

Overall, in 2019, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply and fell sharply in the third quarter, except for the impact of unexpected events. In the whole year, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was basically in a weak shock situation affected by weak demand.

In 2019, the styrene butadiene rubber market fell first and then rose, with the overall year-end slightly down 2.5% compared with the beginning of the year.

In the first seven months of 2019, the domestic price of SBR declined all the way, from 12000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 10112 yuan / ton, the lowest point in July. The main reasons are as follows:

First of all, the raw material butadiene fell all the way in the first half of the year, and the cost of SBR was under pressure. According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic butadiene price in the first half of the year dropped from 9836 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 7812 yuan / ton at the end of April. Secondly, the cost of raw materials has been greatly reduced, the styrene butadiene production enterprises have high operating rate driven by profits, the market supply is sufficient, and the price of styrene butadiene rubber has been suppressed. Finally, at the beginning of the year, the start-up of downstream enterprises recovered slowly. In April and may, they encountered policies such as limited production and power supply and strict environmental protection inspection. The start-up rate of downstream tire factories continued to decline. In the first half of the year, the downstream procurement continued to be weak, which was a big negative for SBR.

From the beginning of August to the end of December, the price of domestic SBR rose in shock, from 10400 yuan / ton at the beginning of August to 11700 yuan / ton at the end of the year. On the one hand, from the beginning of August to the beginning of November, styrene butadiene rubber rose sharply and fell under the influence of cost. In the early stage, due to the black swan incident of crude oil and the decline of butadiene start-up, the price of crude oil and raw material butadiene went up all the way, and the cost side drove the rise of SBR; in the later stage, with the cost side falling, the price of SBR went down. On the other hand, in the downstream, especially in the tire factory, the operating rate in the second half of the year was relatively high, and the demand for rubber was relatively strong, which to some extent supported the rubber price.

2、 Price trend of raw materials

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of butadiene in 2019 fluctuated and adjusted, falling in the first half of the year as a whole, rising and falling in the second half of the year. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene dropped from 9836 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to around 7812 yuan / ton at the end of April. After that, with the increase of the outer price and the maintenance of the manufacturer’s devices, the supply of butadiene decreased, and the price gradually rose to August. In September and October, affected by the “black swan” incident of crude oil, the price quickly rose to the annual peak of 11845 yuan / ton. After that, on the one hand, the hype was released, on the other hand, the high price led to the purchase list, and then gradually fell back to the end of the year near 8300 yuan / ton. As a whole, the price trend of raw material butadiene basically keeps pace with that of synthetic rubber, and the influence of industrial chain is relatively close.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of styrene will fluctuate and adjust in 2019, with the overall price rising first and then falling. As of December 20, the average price of styrene quoted by styrene enterprises is 7450.00 yuan / ton, which is 8066.67 yuan / ton compared with that of styrene quoted at the beginning of 2019 (January 1), a sharp drop, a drop of 7.64%, and a drop of 9.51% compared with that of the same period last year. Generally speaking, 2019 is a year of strong supply and demand of styrene. Although the price has declined all the way compared with 2018, the industry profit of styrene is still good throughout the year, and the industry cash flow continuity is good.

3、 Downstream tire demand support

As of November 2019, the output of domestic rubber tires was 72.467 million, up 3.3% year on year; from January to November, the output of domestic rubber tires was 767.609 million, up 2.2% year on year. Overall, the year-on-year growth rate of output in the first half of the year was negative, and the year-on-year growth rate of output in the second half of the year gradually picked up to more than 2%. From the point of view of the support of demand for synthetic rubber, the support in the first half of the year was weak, while the support in the second half of the year was slightly strong.

4、 Future forecast

In 2020, there are three trends of synthetic rubber: first, the impact of Sino US trade friction. At present, the Sino US trade friction shows signs of easing, which is relatively favorable for the later tire and other rubber products exports. However, due to the possibility of repetition in the later stage, there is still a certain degree of negative impact on the start-up and consumption of downstream industries of synthetic rubber next year; second, raw materials butadiene, styrene and upstream crude oil Trend impact: in 2010, when the raw material market is not limited to production or maintenance, the price is basically in the range of shocks, which also affects the price of synthetic rubber within the range; 3. The impact of the start-up of synthetic rubber production enterprises, on the one hand, in recent two years, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber production has been surplus, and the overall unit operation rate is lower than 60% for a long time under the control of low demand. On the other hand, the production capacity of cis-1.6 million tons of butadiene rubber is almost surplus. At present, only Zhenjiang Qimei 40000 tons / year and Shandong Shengxing device have production plans. However, due to the fact that it is still in the early stage of planning, it is unlikely to be put into production in the next two years. It is expected that the production capacity of synthetic rubber will be basically stable in the later stage, and the operating rate depends on the market supply pressure and profit size.

1. Price analysis in the first half of 2019, the titanium dioxide price market experienced five stages: up and down, up and down. In the middle of the year, compared with the beginning of the year, the overall price declined. Due to different situations, the decline range was about 1600 yuan / ton. By the end of 2019, the factory price of China rutile titanium dioxide with tax was 13500-15200 yuan / ton, and the factory price of anatase titanium dioxide with tax was 11500-12800 yuan / ton. Among them, the market price of longmang Bailian was announced to rise four times in total on February 12, March 7, August 15 and September 3, respectively, and the decline time was in January, July and November. The first stage of decline: in January 2019, the market continues to decline at the end of 2018. Due to the market going into the off-season and approaching the Spring Festival, most enterprises in the north have stopped production. After the price has been greatly reduced, the market price is low, and some titanium dioxide manufacturers have also moved forward for maintenance. In addition, before the Spring Festival, the stock manufacturers go to stock more. In late January, longmang Baili Announced the order, on January 31, Venator announced that the price of titanium dioxide (titanium dioxide) sold in the United States and Canada increased by 0.07 USD / pound on February 1, which boosted the market, and the market price stopped falling.

The second stage of rising: entering February to March, the market price rose twice. On February 12, longmang billiard announced that based on the domestic market situation, the price of domestic customers will be increased by 500 yuan / ton, and the price of international customers will be increased by 100 dollars / ton. Then the market enterprises announced the increase in succession, with the range of 500-800 yuan / ton; on March 7, all kinds of domestic customers continued to increase 500 yuan / ton, all kinds of international customers increased 100 dollars / ton, and some enterprises followed the increase in succession. During the two rounds of price increase from February to March, some enterprises increased once, some enterprises increased twice, and the total increase of longmang was 1000 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, the price increase is mainly due to the large number of market maintenance enterprises, the reduction of titanium dioxide supply, the gradual recovery of downstream market after the Spring Festival, and the upward market demand. However, just after the Spring Festival, the downstream construction has not fully recovered, and the enterprises mostly execute the old orders. The price increase in early March mainly tamps the price increase in February. With the recovery of market demand and the increase of raw material prices, the actual price in March is also the same Up.

The third stage of decline: the market rose and fell in April, and continued to decline from May to July. Among them, the price of foreign giants rose due to market demand and other factors. CITIC titanium announced that the domestic price was increased by 500 yuan / ton. In April, due to the tax rate adjustment, some enterprises in the market made a profit to the downstream. In March, the enterprises received more orders, and the order situation slowed down in April. Since the end of March, the recent domestic chemical plant safety accidents occurred frequently, the downstream enterprises were greatly affected, and the pressure of titanium dioxide shipment increased. With the market entering the slack season, the market price continued to decline from May to July. The fourth stage is the rising stage: from August to October, the market price is rising steadily. At the beginning of August, longmang issued the price adjustment letter. From August 15, the market price of titanium dioxide was increased by 500 yuan / ton, and then more than 20 enterprises in the market issued the price increase information, ranging from 500-800 yuan / ton. On September 3, longmang Bailian sent a letter again to increase the price, and then other enterprises in the market kept up. The market price rise is mainly due to the low market price and the decline of environmental protection market operating rate, the low price and the tight inventory of enterprises. In the peak season, the market price is rising steadily. In September, the price increase was unsuccessful. In October, the price of some enterprises continued to rise, including the price of international titanium dioxide. The fifth stage of decline: at the beginning of November, longmang Bailian made a large profit to the downstream, and then the market enterprises made different adjustments. After the price reduction, due to the fact that the stock companies in the downstream end of the year have more inventory and the limited production of the enterprises, some enterprises are short of inventory. At the end of November and the beginning of December, the prices of some enterprises have increased, and the market prices have stabilized. In 2019, the overall weakness of China’s titanium dioxide market will decline. In 2020, the new capacity of titanium dioxide market will be released, and the shortage of raw materials will continue. In 2020, the titanium dioxide market will still face great pressure.

2. Import and export analysis according to the statistics of customs data, the total amount of titanium dioxide imported by China from January to October 2019 was 135600 tons, 177100 tons compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year decline of 23.43%; the annual import volume is expected to be more than 160000 tons, a decrease of about 40000 tons compared with last year. The import volume of titanium dioxide in China has declined significantly, mainly due to the continuous improvement of the quality of domestic sulfuric acid titanium dioxide and the high price abroad, the poor performance of domestic demand, and the continuous release of new production capacity of China’s Chlorinated titanium dioxide, and the gradual decrease of high-end imported titanium dioxide.

According to the statistics of customs data, the total amount of titanium dioxide exported by China from January to October 2019 was 820800 tons, an increase of 5.08% over the previous year. The export volume is expected to rise steadily. It is estimated that the annual export volume is about 960000 tons, and the top export enterprises are still longmang Bailian, CNNC titanium dioxide, Shandong Jinhai, etc. Due to the poor economic situation, the export price has declined. Affected by the Sino US trade war, the amount of titanium dioxide exported to the United States has decreased significantly. As the economic development of India, Brazil and other developing countries continues to speed up, the demand for titanium dioxide products has increased and become the main force of demand growth.

From January to October, the average import price was 3018.96 USD / ton, down 1.67% from 3070.18 last year. The average export price was 2223.34 USD / ton, down 12.75% from 2548.30 USD / ton last year.

3. Production analysis according to the statistics of Tu Duoduo, the new capacity of China’s titanium dioxide in 2019 is about 3.92 million tons, and the output of China’s titanium dioxide in January November 2019 is 2.8584 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 140000 tons, an increase of 5.27%. The annual output is expected to be 3.12 million tons.

In 2019, new titanium dioxide enterprises include Yibin Tianyuan, Guizhou Shengwei Fuquan and Guangxi Xilong chemical industry. In 2019, with the release of production capacity of Dongfang titanium industry in Gansu Province, the production of nuclear titanium dioxide increased more than last year; the release of 200000 tons of new production capacity of Bll and the production of Tianyuan chlorination process, the total production of chlorination process in January November was 173600 tons, with a growth rate of 25.6%, accounting for 6% of the total domestic production, with an increase of about 40000 tons compared with last year. In 2020, with the release of new capacity and the production of new capacity, it is estimated that the output of titanium dioxide will increase by nearly 300000 tons in 2020, which is under great pressure of market competition. At present, there are still projects under construction and expansion in the market. The output of titanium dioxide ranks Sichuan, Shandong and Anhui, accounting for 22%, 17% and 12% of the total domestic output respectively.

At present, there are 12 enterprises with a production capacity of over 100000 tons in China, accounting for 73% of the total domestic production capacity, 13% of which have a production capacity of less than 50000 tons. There are still many small production capacity, and the concentration of production capacity still needs to be improved.

1. Cangzhou Dahua builds TDI “the first in the world” and becomes the leader of new chemical material industry in China

On March 12, the launching ceremony of the 200000 ton PC project of Cangzhou Dahua was held in the port economic and Technological Development Zone, Bohai new area, Cangzhou.

Cangzhou Dahua is the leading enterprise of Cangzhou Chemical Industry. It has successively completed and put into operation 50000 tons, 70000 tons TDI, 135000 tons nitric acid, 160000 tons caustic soda and other projects in Cangzhou Bohai new area. The 200000 t / a PC project is not only essential for the transformation and development of Cangzhou Dahua, but also can drive related industries and promote the local economic development of Cangzhou Bohai new area. In the future, Cangzhou Dahua Group will strengthen its strategic emerging industries, build a high-end industrial system, successively build 850000 T / a TDI, 200000 t / a bisphenol A, 400000 T / a MDI, 300000 t / a nitric acid and other projects, build a green chemical new material industrial park with tdi-pc-mdi industry as the core, build TDI “the first in the world” and become a leader in domestic chemical new material industry.

2. BASF’s new integrated production base in Guangdong with a total investment of 10 billion US dollars was officially launched!

On November 22, the project of Guangdong new integrated production base (Verbund), with a total investment of 10 billion US dollars, was officially launched in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, and the first batch of units began to be built. This is an important milestone since the project was announced in July 2018. The first batch of units of the project will produce engineering plastics and thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU), so as to meet the customer demand of multiple growth industries in South China and the whole Asian market.

3. 925 million yuan! Wanhua chemical acquires MDI / TDI technology company of Sweden

On July 30, Wanhua announced that Wanhua chemical (Hungary) Holding Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned overseas subsidiary of the company, acquired 100% of the equity of Sweden International Chemical Co., Ltd. held by Cornell and Euramerican Energy Technology Co., Ltd., the equity delivery has been completed, and the total acquisition amount is about 925445229 yuan. This acquisition is conditional. Cornell is required to adjust the equity structure of Fujian Cornell Polyurethane Co., Ltd. to achieve the final shareholding ratio of 80% held by Wanhua chemical and 20% held by Cornell

4. Cangzhou Dahua: TDI sold 900 million in the first half of the year! Net profit fell by 95.9% year on year!

Cangzhou Dahua disclosed China Daily on August 29, 2019. In the first half of 2019, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 1.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 55.9%; a net profit attributable to the parent company of 31.505 million, a year-on-year decrease of 95.9%; and a per share income of 0.08 yuan. During the reporting period, the company’s gross profit rate was 10.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 43.4%, and its net interest rate was 1.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 32.8%.

5. Wanhua chemical acquires 51% equity of Fujian kangnair

On August 25, 2019, the buyer and the seller signed an equity transfer agreement. Cornell chemical transferred 51% of its shares in the target company to Wanhua chemical at the price of RMB 0. The two parties completed the equity delivery within 30 working days from the date of signing the agreement. On the date of signing the agreement, the paid in capital contribution of each shareholder of Fujian kangnair is zero yuan, and the book net asset is zero yuan.

6. BASF TDI plant won the American Chemical Council responsibility Care Award

The American Chemical Council (ACC) recognized BASF’s TDI plant in gasma, Louisiana, and awarded the 2019 Responsible Care Award for its waste minimization and recycling.

The TDI plant team and the company’s environmental, health and safety (EHS) experts worked together to give nickel catalysts, which were difficult to recover, a chance to reuse. Geert Janssens, vice president, isocyanate business, North American monomer division, said: “the award is designed to recognize BASF’s commitment to sustainable development and our participation in waste reduction. We create chemistry by making full use of existing resources. Our efforts at the gasma plant are a case in point. ”

Facing the situation of increasing PP capacity, the growth of domestic PP downstream demand worries the market. The diversification of domestic PP raw materials makes the market competition pattern upgrade again. Downstream demand stratification changes, general-purpose products, especially plastic products profit shrinking, and high-end plastic products still have strong demand potential due to demand!

1、 Analysis on the demand change of plastic products

According to the analysis of the output data of plastic products in 2010-2020, the growth rate of domestic plastic products shows a gradual slowdown trend, especially after experiencing the high level in 2014, the overall growth rate of plastic products shows a fluctuating downward trend. It is analyzed that the rapid decline of plastic products is mainly due to the strict inspection of domestic environmental protection and the reduction of processing enterprises under the influence of Sino US trade war. After 2019, the growth rate of plastic products slowed down again, mainly due to the sluggish global economic growth and the impact of domestic economic environment on the order follow-up of downstream products enterprises, resulting in the relative reduction of the overall output of plastic products.

2、 Upgrading of diversified competition pattern of raw materials

According to the comparative analysis of PP raw material capacity in 2016-2019, the coal to olefin capacity has the fastest growth, from 3.36 million tons in 2016 to 6.33 million tons in 2019, an increase of 2.97 million tons. Among them, coal to olefin capacity accounted for 18% in 2016, and coal to olefin capacity accounted for 26% in 2019, accounting for an increase of 8%. Its growth rate was surprising. In addition, PDH series are also fast-growing products. Due to the obvious cost advantage of propane dehydrogenation products, the later expansion products will also present new breakthroughs. With the diversification of raw materials, the market competition pressure will be gradually upgraded.

3、 Decreasing import dependence

In 2019, the import dependence of PP showed a weak fluctuating situation. The total import from January to October 2019 was 20.9919 million, 7.16% higher than that from January to October 2018 (1958.87 million). Due to the strict environmental protection inspection in China, after the strict prohibition on the import of waste plastics, the domestic demand for PP raw materials is increased correspondingly, and some imported resources are increased correspondingly, so as to meet the domestic demand. However, the overall import dependence of PP shows a gradual downward trend. At present, the average import dependence in 2019 is 19.63%. It can be seen that with the continuous stimulation of domestic production capacity, some domestic materials gradually replace the imported products, and the import dependence also decreases accordingly.

4、 Domestic supply and demand game import dependence still exists

Facing the rapid expansion of domestic PP capacity, the imbalance between market supply and demand gradually highlights. Although domestic general-purpose products have gradually replaced imported products, the market demand for domestic medium and high-end products is still strong, especially the gradual opening of domestic infrastructure and two child policy, the market demand potential in anti impact products and medical industry is huge, so the demand for imported medium and high-end products still has a large development space.

26.53% yuan / ton

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of soda ash in 2019 was significantly reduced, down 26.53% for the whole year. On January 1, the average price in the domestic market was 2123.33 yuan / ton, the highest unit price in the whole year. On December 24, the average price in the domestic market was 1560.00 yuan / ton, which was also the lowest unit price in the whole year.

19 million 390 thousand tons

According to the data from the National Bureau of statistics and the customs, from January to September 2019, China’s apparent consumption of soda ash totaled 19.39 million tons, and from January to September 2018, China’s apparent consumption of soda ash totaled 18.15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.86%.

61080.7 tons

According to customs statistics, in October 2019, China’s import volume of soda ash was 6461.97 tons, and the cumulative import volume was 61080.7 tons.

1179180.27 tons

According to the statistics of the customs, in October 2019, the export volume of China’s soda ash was 129411.24 tons, and the cumulative export volume was 1179180.27 tons, up 0.7% year-on-year, with relatively stable export.

87.06%

According to the survey data, the overall operating rate of soda ash industry in November was about 87.06%, while that in the same period of 2018 was only 81.56%, up 5.5 percentage points year on year.

1561 yuan / ton

On December 6, the soda ash futures were listed, and on the first day of sa2005, the futures price rose. On that day, the session price closed at 1561, up + 2.03%; volume was 318030, position was 38922, and basis was + 139.

33 million 140 thousand tons

According to statistics, the total capacity of soda ash in 2019 is 33.14 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons, or 3.62%, compared with 2018. The domestic production capacity is 31.69 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 95.61%.

1. China US trade negotiations have achieved phased results

China US trade negotiations lasted for two years. They talked about the suspension and finally reached the first phase agreement at the last moment of 2019, which reduced the uncertainty of the future of the market. At the press conference of the State Council Information Office on December 16, Fu Linghui, a spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, answered the question of reaching the first phase agreement in China US trade negotiations, adding that China and the United States currently It is the largest two countries in the world. The cooperation between China and the United States is a relatively good development for China, the United States and the world. It is of positive significance for enhancing market confidence, promoting economic and trade development, for China, the United States and even for the world.

2. Saudi oil facilities attacked

In the early morning of September 14, 2019 Beijing time, several drones attacked two oil facilities of Saudi Aramco and caused a fire. After the incident, the Hussein armed forces claimed responsibility for the attack, and many countries expressed or used strategic oil reserves to fill the supply gap. On the first trading day after Saudi Aramco’s attack, the oil market was not surprised by a huge earthquake. Brent crude oil jumped on the opening day of the 16th, with an increase of 17% at one time, breaking the $70 mark, the largest one-day increase since 1991; WTI crude oil also rose 13%. Although Saudi Arabia’s emergency recovery in the following week did not have a significant impact on the market supply, the incident shocked the global crude oil market seriously.

3. Saudi Aramco listed at the end of 2019

On December 11, Beijing time, Saudi Arabia National Oil Company (hereinafter referred to as Saudi Aramco) was listed on Riyadh stock exchange in Saudi Arabia. On the first day of trading, it rose 10% to 35.2 Riyals, hitting the limit. By the end of trading, Saudi Aramco’s market value on the first day had soared by 1.2 trillion yuan, with a total market value of 13.16 trillion yuan (about 1.88 trillion US dollars), officially surpassing apple（ 8112, – 74.00, – 0.90%) is the largest company with the largest market value in the world, equivalent to the market value of 3.5 Alibaba (US stock market value) or 9 Guizhou Moutai, only slightly lower than Brazil’s GDP (US $1.9 trillion) in 2018.

4. Oman sea tanker explosion

On June 13, 2019, Iran’s al Alam television network quoted local Omani sources as saying that due to malicious attacks, there were two tanker explosions in the Oman sea that morning. After the incident, the U.S. and Burmese oil prices rose rapidly, with Burmese oil rising more than 4% at one time and WTI crude oil rising nearly 4%. In addition, the attack led to panic in the market, through the Oman sea tanker premium also increased significantly.

5. Supply concerns caused by pollution of Russian oil pipeline in Druzhba

In the early morning of April 26, 2019 Beijing time, foreign media reported that the crude oil transported by the Russian Druzhba oil pipeline was polluted by organic chlorides, and Poland and Germany cut interest rates to suspend the import of Russian crude oil from the pipeline. It is reported that the contaminated crude oil can reach up to 1.5 million barrels per day, which exacerbates the market panic.

6. Highway investment

Highway investment is an important indicator of asphalt demand. According to the 13th five year plan of each province, during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the national highway investment is planned to be 9.7 trillion, while from January 2016 to October 2019, the national highway investment has been 7.8 trillion, accounting for 80% of the plan, and from January to October 2019, the investment is planned to be 1.8 trillion.

7. VAT rate down

From April 1, the 16% VAT rate of manufacturing and other industries will be reduced to 13%, and the 10% VAT rate of transportation and construction industries will be reduced to 9%.

8. IMO 2020 new regulation for sulfur limitation

According to the relevant provisions of the new IMO 2020 sulfur limitation regulations, the use of fuel oil containing no more than 0.5% sulfur will be restricted globally from January 1, 2020. This means that the high sulfur residue produced by refineries with insufficient secondary processing capacity and desulfurization capacity may become the blending component of asphalt, and the supply of asphalt will increase, especially the supply of non-standard asphalt market.

9. Marui crude oil “cut off”

In August 2019, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) decided to stop importing crude oil from Venezuela. PetroChina is currently the only Chinese company to import oil from Venezuela. 80% of Venezuelan crude oil imported by China is mare crude oil, accounting for about 50% of domestic asphalt raw materials.

1、 Price trend

The domestic liquefied gas market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was 4093.33 yuan / ton, while the weekend average price was 4316.67 yuan / ton, up 5.46% in the week and 0.39% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic liquefied gas market rose sharply this week, with a good trading atmosphere. As of December 20. The price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4700 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4900 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4330 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4200 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4300 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical liquefied gas factory price is 4500 yuan / ton.

This week, civil gas rose a lot as the main actor in the national liquefied gas market. Under the favorable conditions of tight international spot supply, the price continued to rise. At present, the price has risen to a relatively high level, and the downstream is in a state of conflict with the high price. They have left the market one after another to wait and see. The atmosphere of market transaction has been lighter than that in the earlier stage. However, the price difference between civil gas and propane is large at present, and the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong due to strong seasonal factors.

Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 50th week of 2019 (12.16-12.20), there are 7 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are liquefied gas (5.46%), dimethyl ether (2.79%) and petroleum coke (2.27%). There are 6 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling are MTBE (- 2.04%), LNG (- 1.50%) and methanol (- 1.42%). This week’s average was 0.5%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the liquefied gas analyst of the business association, at present, the price difference between civil gas and propane is large. In addition, affected by seasonal factors, the weather is cooling, the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, the enthusiasm for entering the market is high, and the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong. However, there are still differences between the north and the south. It is expected that the national market will fluctuate next week, and Shandong market will adjust slightly.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spot market price of PTA in China continued to weaken slightly. As of December 23, the average market price was 4855 yuan / ton, down 0.70% compared with the previous trading day, down 25.81% year on year. The weak futures market adjusted to close at 4880 yuan / ton, down 34 yuan / ton or 0.69% from the previous trading day. The buying is dominated by traders and the trading atmosphere is light. At present, the starting load of PTA is 93.59%, and Yisheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has announced the maintenance plan of PTA unit in the first quarter.

Changes of PTA plants in China

Enterprise name capacity (10000 tons / year) device dynamics

Yishanhua 225 planned to be overhauled from the end of December to the middle of January

Ningbo Yisheng 220 planned to be overhauled from the end of January to the middle of February

Hainan Yisheng 200 plans to overhaul from the end of February to the middle of March

Hailun Petrochemical 120 plans to enter maintenance this week

Chuanneng chemical 100 stopped short on November 1, and the current load is 80%

Jialong Petrochemical 60 shut down for maintenance on August 2, and restart to be determined

In terms of cost, crude oil fell. As of December 20, the main futures price of international crude oil WTI was 60.44 USD / barrel, down 0.78 USD / barrel compared with the previous trading day, and the main futures price of Brent was 66.14 USD / barrel, down 0.40 USD / barrel compared with the previous trading day. The PX market in Asia closed at $805 / T FOB South Korea and $825 / T CFR China, up $3 / T from the previous trading day. Affected by the weakness of raw materials, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry has been reduced. The polyester factory has reduced production, and the starting load has been reduced to 83%. The quotation of mainstream polyester filament factory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is basically stable, and it is mainly cautious to wait and see. The price of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 7250-7600.00 yuan / ton. In terms of textile terminal, in the late December, the stock of downstream enterprises is still reduced, and the market orders continue to weaken. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is about 67.00%, and the manufacturer’s production enthusiasm is not as good as that in the early stage.

Xia Ting, an analyst with business club, believes that PTA plant announced the overhaul plan, but chemical products were frustrated due to the fall of crude oil, and PTA’s new production capacity was approaching, so downstream procurement was cautious. In addition, the holiday time of this year is earlier than that of previous years, and the market atmosphere will be further reduced. With the increase of holiday manufacturers, the market will be more difficult to boost. There is a lack of obvious favorable stimulation in the fundamentals, and PTA price is expected to be weak.

1、 Overall trend

This week (12.16-12.20) polyethylene showed a weak decline, in which the average price of LDPE 2426h in East China monitored by the business club was about 8112.5 yuan / ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7950 yuan / ton; the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7383.33 yuan / ton. As of December 20, the prices of LLDPE and LDPE in East China first stabilized and then fell this week, while the prices of HDPE this week showed a horizontal trend. This week, the overall trend of PE market is weak, most of which fell by 50-150 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the futures market rebounded slightly, which supported the market to a certain extent. Most of the spot markets were stable. On Tuesday, the futures market began to fall in shock, which depressed the market mentality. Businesses adjusted their offers and prices fell. In many areas of petrochemicals, the factory price has been reduced, and the terminal demand is weak, so the market has continued to decline.

On December 23, the LLDPE commodity index was 70.39, down 0.32 points from yesterday, down 40.12% from 117.56 (2013-12-11), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.69% from 69.91, the lowest point on September 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The LDPE commodity index on December 23 was 62.74, down 0.39 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 44.64% from 113.33, the highest on December 8, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On December 23, the HDPE commodity index was 64.17, down 0.27 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 37.29% from the highest point of 102.33 on July 24, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Upstream: oil prices rose steadily this week. On Monday (December 16), WTI crude oil futures settled at $60.21 a barrel in January 2020, up $0.14/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.77-60.34; Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.34 a barrel in February 2020, up $0.12/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.88-65.66/barrel. On Friday (December 20), WTI crude oil futures settlement price in February 2020 was $60.44 per barrel, down $0.78/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.02-61.20/barrel; Brent crude oil futures settlement price in February 2020 was $66.14 per barrel, down $0.40/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.70-66.72/barrel.

Import and export: about 1336500 tons of PE will be imported in October 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 425200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 643000 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 268300 tons, and the total export volume of PE in October 2019 is 28200 tons. The export volume of PE is 8500 tons, HDPE is 16300 tons and LLDPE is 3400 tons.

Manufacturer’s trends: this week, the demand for plastic film in the lower reaches of PE decreased, the demand for plastic film increased in succession, and the manufacturer’s quotation for plastic film was basically stable. However, many areas are still restricted by the environmental protection policy.

Futures trend: according to the monitoring of the business club, on December 20, the opening price of polyethylene futures l2005 was 7260, the highest price was 7370, the lowest price was 7255, the closing price was 7330, the former settlement price was 7245, the settlement price was 7305, up 85, up 1.17%, the volume was 584578, the position was 725956, and the daily increase was 33450. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

3、 Future forecast

Looking forward to the future, business analysts believe that the current strong rise in international oil prices, linear futures rebound, the market has some support. However, the petrochemical inventory has accumulated, and the downstream is in conflict with the high price supply, so the transaction is still difficult. It is expected that the future market may fall in the short term.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 4516 yuan / ton, while the average price of polyoxymethylene at the end of the week was 4483 yuan / ton, down 0.74%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4800 yuan / ton, with stable quotation.

Industrial chain: upstream methanol, domestic methanol market weak downward. The downstream pesticide market is not good, the demand is down, and some enterprises’ quotation is down.

3、 Future forecast

To sum up, the business club POM analysts believe that POM may continue to operate in a weak way.