I. price trend
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, in November, the supply of zinc exceeded the demand, the market of zinc was depressed, and the price of zinc fell in shock. As of November 30, the spot price of zinc was 18466.67 yuan / ton, down 3.70% from 19176.67 yuan / ton on November 1, down 11.95% from the same period last year.
II. Market trend analysis
China manufacturing PMI up
According to the website of the National Bureau of statistics, in November 2019, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.2%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month. After being below the critical point for six consecutive months, it returned to the expansion range again. The PMI of manufacturing industry in November reflects the changes of China’s economic environment in the near future: both sides of supply and demand have improved, import and export have improved, the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises has generally picked up, and the transformation and upgrading have been accelerated. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry investigation center of the National Bureau of statistics, believes that the downward pressure of manufacturing industry still exists due to external uncertainties and other factors. According to the price index reflecting the market changes, the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials are 49.0% and 47.3%, down 1.4% and 0.7% respectively from the previous month, both falling for two consecutive months. Some enterprises reported that the transformation and upgrading have achieved certain results and the business environment has improved, but the problem of capital shortage is still prominent. According to the survey results, the proportion of enterprises reflecting the shortage of funds was 38.2%, higher than 1.5 percentage points last month. From the change of macro-economic environment, we can see the embarrassing situation of zinc market at this stage. The supply and demand environment picked up in November, which was good for zinc city. However, due to the shortage of enterprise funds and the transmission of capital pressure to the upstream, the rising power of zinc city was limited, and the zinc price fell.
The growth rate of commercial housing sales turns positive for the first time in the year
According to the website of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to October, the sales area of commercial housing was 1332.51 million square meters, with the growth rate turning from negative to positive for the first time since this year, up 0.1% year on year. The sales area of commercial housing increased slightly, but there is still a certain gap compared with the market expectation of the golden nine silver ten. The demand for zinc ingots in the real estate market has a rising trend, but compared with the supply growth of zinc ingots, the zinc market is still oversupplied In demand, the impact of the real estate market on the domestic zinc market is negative.
|ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)|
Galvanized steel plate rose in shock
It can be seen from the table that the zinc plate market rose slightly in November, and the demand for zinc ingots rose, which is good for zinc market. Zinc market has a certain upward momentum, but due to the small increase of zinc plate and insufficient support for zinc ingot, the upward momentum of zinc market is limited.
III. future prospects
According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, from the perspective of macro-economic environment, the domestic economic environment picked up in November, and the demand of zinc market rose; although the real estate market did not expect the gold nine silver ten market to appear, the overall performance was stable, and the demand for zinc ingots was strong; the rise of zinc plate market was good for the demand for zinc ingots, but it was not enough to change the supply-demand balance of zinc market; the pressure of enterprise operation funds One of the main reasons to reduce the price drop of zinc ingot is to force the enterprise to reduce the purchase cost and transfer the capital pressure to the upstream. The output of zinc ingot keeps rising in 19 years, the stock of zinc market is surplus, and the oversupply of zinc market provides the supply and demand environment for the enterprise to reduce the purchase price of zinc ingot. The high cost of zinc concentrate processing determines the lower limit of zinc price, and the space for zinc price to fall is limited. To sum up, zinc market demand is good in the near future, but it is hard to resist the negative pressure of zinc market. It is expected that zinc price will fluctuate slightly in the future.
|Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)|