In October, the production of industrial raw coal and crude oil above designated size was stable, while the production of natural gas and electric power slowed down.

I. steady growth of raw coal production and decline of coal import growth

In October, the output of raw coal was 320 million tons, up 4.4% year-on-year, with the same growth rate as last month; the average daily output was 10.48 million tons, down 320000 tons on a month on month basis. From January to October, the output of raw coal was 3.06 billion tons, up 4.5% year on year.

In October, the coal import was 25685000 tons, up 11.3% year on year, down 9.3 percentage points from last month; from January to October, the coal import was 280 million tons, up 9.6% year on year.

Coal prices fell slightly. On November 1, the comprehensive transaction prices of 5500, 5000 and 4500 kcal coal in Qinhuangdao Port were 565, 505 and 453 yuan per ton, respectively, down 5, 4 and 3 yuan from the end of September.

II. Stable crude oil production and accelerated import

In October, the crude oil production was 16.11 million tons, basically the same as that of the same period last year; the daily average output was 520000 tons, down by 11000 tons on a month on month basis. From January to October, crude oil production reached 159250000 tons, up 1.1% year on year.

In October, crude oil imports reached 45.51 million tons, up 17.1% year-on-year, 6.3 percentage points higher than last month. From January to October, crude oil imports reached 414.545 million tons, up 10.5% year on year.

In October, the international crude oil price fell in shock. On October 31, the spot FOB price of Brent crude oil was $59.3/barrel, down $1.69 from September 30.

III. crude oil processing maintains rapid growth

In October, 57.84 million tons of crude oil were processed, up 9.2% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points slower than last month; the average daily processing was 1.866 million tons, down 17 thousand tons on a month on month basis. From January to October, 537.1 million tons of crude oil were processed, up 6.4% year on year.

IV. natural gas production slows down and imports fall

In October, natural gas production reached 14.6 billion cubic meters, up 8.2% year-on-year, 2.4 percentage points slower than last month; the average daily production reached 470 million cubic meters, an increase of 20 million cubic meters on a month on month basis. From January to October, natural gas production reached 142.3 billion cubic meters, up 9.3% year on year.

In October, the import of natural gas reached 6.52 million tons, down 10.6% year on year. The growth rate changed from positive to negative, up 8.0% last month. From January to October, natural gas imports reached 77.71 million tons, up 7.9% year on year.

V. slight slowdown in power production

In October, the power generation was 571.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, a slowdown of 0.7 percentage points over the previous month; the average daily power generation was 18.43 billion kwh, a decrease of 1.26 billion kwh on a month on month basis. From January to October, power generation reached 5.9 trillion kwh, up 3.1% year on year.

In terms of varieties, the growth rate of thermal power production slowed down slightly in October, the decline of hydropower expanded, nuclear power and solar power fell, and wind power turned from negative to positive. Among them, thermal power increased by 5.9% year-on-year, 0.1% slower than last month; hydropower decreased by 4.1%, 3.0% larger; nuclear power and solar power increased by 5.4% and 3.0%, 12.5% and 16.4% lower respectively; wind power increased by 10.0%, 7.9% lower last month.

I. price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the market of epichlorohydrin has declined in recent days. On Friday (November 8), the average price of the enterprise was 17000 yuan / ton, on November 13, the average price of the enterprise was 14700 yuan / ton, and the six-day decline of epichlorohydrin was 13.53%. In a three-month cycle, it rose 2.08% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market fell recently. At present, there is no inventory pressure for manufacturers, but the enthusiasm of downstream operators is not high, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. On August 8, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 17000 yuan / ton, on November 11, the price of epichlorohydrin fell to 16266.67 yuan / ton, on December 12, the price rose to 16600 yuan / ton, and on March 13, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14700 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China is about 14000-15300 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong Province has increased recently. At present, the market turnover is about 7320-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7350 yuan / ton. At present, propylene inventory is low, supply is more tight, downstream purchasing sentiment is good, and crude oil and PP market is still ideal, some prices are still rising. The downstream epoxy resin is mainly weak and downward, and the trading atmosphere is stalemate.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on November 13, 2019, among which the commodity range with an increase of more than 5% is mainly arranged, and the fluctuation is still possible. Chloroform (3.81%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are epichlorohydrin (- 11.45%), urea (- 3.23%) and lithium carbonate (- 2.70%). The 13 day average rose or fell 0.06%.

3. Future forecast:

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club, the cost support brought by upstream raw materials has not had much impact in recent months, so the supply and demand side is still the key to increase or decrease the price of epichlorohydrin. Due to the expected restart of some units and release of new production capacity in the later stage, downstream operators are more cautious in participating in the process, and the trading in epichlorohydrin market is stagnant. The weak operation of downstream epoxy resin has also become a major constraint on the operation road of epichlorohydrin. It is expected that in the short term, the weak operation of epichlorohydrin market will be dominated, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of upstream and downstream mainstream manufacturers.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the market price of diammonium phosphate in China has remained low recently. Up to now, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on November 13 is 2335 yuan / ton, down 1.34% compared with November 1 (2366.67). On November 12, DAP commodity index was 69.65, down 0.6 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 32.37% from 102.98, the highest on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: the market of DAP in China is weak, and the market is in a downturn. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2250-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2350-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province 2400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: at present, the phosphorus ore market as a whole is stable, with a large inventory pressure and a small amount of procurement in the downstream. The price of domestic sulfur market continues to fall, with the market dominated by negative sentiment, which is more likely to continue to fall. The domestic liquid ammonia market is mainly in decline. In the short term, the market is not very optimistic, and the focus of insufficient trading moves down. About 50% of diammonium was started and some enterprises were overhauled.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on November 12, 2019, among which the top three commodities are mixed xylene (2.39%), chloroform (2.16%) and epichlorohydrin (2.05%) There are 17 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were aniline (- 4.07%), titanium dioxide (- 2.53%) and acetic anhydride (- 2.00%). The average price of this day was – 0.12%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of diammonium phosphate of the business association believe that the market price of diammonium raw materials has fallen, the market demand is insufficient, the industry has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and enterprises take more goods on demand. With the coming of the conference, we look forward to the good news. It is expected that the weak market of diammonium phosphate will be sorted out in the later stage, and it is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market trends of phosphorus chemical industry.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of November 13, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several major areas monitored by the data is 16766 yuan / ton, down about 70 yuan / ton, or 0.4% compared with the beginning of the month (November 1).

II. Market analysis

Products: since the beginning of November, the silicone market is unpredictable, and the market is under various pressures. The whole market is dominated by weak consolidation. Most of the cargo holders fall into losses, high stocks of traders and distributors. Downstream purchases are made on demand, and the whole silicone industry chain market is shrouded in a cautious attitude of stock preparation. Most of the small and medium-sized manufacturers have fierce competition. The decline of orders directly affects the profit and loss of small factories, and also restricts their demand for upstream raw materials to a certain extent. On November 5 last week, the market of organosilicon DMC was slightly increased. On November 5, the data monitoring showed that the average price of the market was around 16900 yuan / ton, which was slightly increased by 70 yuan / ton compared with that on November 1. After the price was maintained for a week, from the beginning of this week (November 11), most of the mainstream manufacturers in the market successively appeared the phenomenon that the price center of quotation for organosilicon DMC products again gave way, and the price dropped Almost set a new low in the year. Up to now, most of the production enterprises of organosilicon DMC have quoted profits in the market. The price reference is 16-17.5 yuan / kg. The low price has not driven the upsurge of hoarding in the downstream market. At present, the transaction is still in a slow state.

Industry chain: Recently, the prices of silicone oil and 107 rubber products in the downstream of organosilicon DMC have declined slightly. The overall market is weak and the market is stable for the time being. The downstream enterprises basically buy and use as needed, and maintain on-demand procurement. At present, the average reference price of 107 rubber in East China, South China and North China continues to stabilize at 17-18.5 yuan / kg (cash transfer). The actual negotiated transaction price or small yield Profit.

III. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that: with the coming of winter, the market of organosilicon DMC has basically entered the off-season, and the trading atmosphere of the whole market is not active. In the short term, the overall price of organosilicon DMC may not be effectively back to the high point.

On November 11, the rare earth index was 335, the same as yesterday, 66.50% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 23.62% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals decreased by 3000 yuan / ton to 360500 yuan / ton, 2.05 million yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide decreased by 3000 yuan / ton to 283500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1.54 million yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 345000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide decreased by 3000 yuan / ton to 285500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 3000 yuan / ton to 360500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1.54 million yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of rare earth in the market is up and down. The domestic rare earth market is generally trading. Recently, the legitimate price in the market has increased, but the price of terbium series metals and oxides has continued to decline, while the price of heavy rare earth has not improved much. In the near future, the inquiry list of praseodymium neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide has declined, and the price of light rare earth oxide has declined slightly. In the near future, the light rare earth merchants in the field are not in good condition, and the recent trading situation in the field is general. The supply of rare earth in China is normal. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the environmental protection supervision in the whole country. The production of rare earth is special, especially the radiation hazards of some products make the environmental protection supervision more strict. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic material enterprises are weak in purchasing after and before the festival due to the surplus of purchasing before the festival. In addition, the price of rare earth has declined compared with the previous period, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in the general market supply of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, which are in normal supply, and the market price trend of rare earth is declining. In the near future There is a strong wait-and-see mood among large enterprise groups in the market. The rare earth market is generally trading, and the trading volume is at a low level.

Ministry of industry and information technology (MIIT) reported on November 8 that the Ministry of industry and information technology (MIIT) and the Ministry of natural resources (MRR) issued the notice on the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 were 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively. The total control index of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) mining in China is 105000 tons, including 78150 tons of main mining index and 26850 tons of comprehensive utilization index. In addition, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts in strict inspection, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. The national development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have taken effective measures to rectify and standardize the industry, innovated and improved the relevant management mechanism, accelerated the construction of an industry development pattern with reasonable industrial structure, advanced science and technology level, effective resource protection and orderly production and operation, and effectively played the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. The supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk Insiders are waiting for good news from the policy and the reserve.

Rare earth analysts of the business society expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental inspection in China will not be reduced. In addition, the order of rare earth industry will be rectified in China, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will maintain a low level. However, the downstream demand for rare earth will not improve in the near future, and the rare earth market is expected to maintain a low level.

Nickel spot trend

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, the spot price of nickel on November 12 was 130666.67 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 2.26% compared with 133683.33 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, a rise of 45.98% compared with the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 30.10%. Nickel prices are now weak.

Indonesia resume export

Indonesia announced on October 28 that it would suspend nickel ore export for illegal investigation. Indonesia said on October 11 that it had approved nine enterprises to restart nickel ore export. Nickel supply eased and nickel prices fell.

Nickel inventory rise in the previous period

Exchange data released on Friday showed nickel inventories in the previous period rose to 30831 tons, the highest level since the week ended June 1, 2018, easing concerns about tight supply. LME inventory destocking slowed down, with a weekly drop of 234 tons.

Downstream stainless steel weak drop dominated

In the near future, the price of downstream stainless steel is mainly stable and weak, with a price of 14171.43 yuan / ton. The high inventory of stainless steel and the expectation of long-term project production, coupled with weak demand, make it difficult for the price of stainless steel to rise.

To sum up, Liu Meili, nickel analyst of the business association, believes that the supply will ease in the short term, and the weakness of downstream stainless steel will fall, making nickel prices drop sharply. In the long run, Indonesia’s mining ban will still take effect next year, and the Philippines will enter the rainy season, so the supply will be affected, and nickel price is expected to remain high and weak.

PVC industry is entering the boom and downturn cycle. In the short term, it is expected that the supply will increase and demand will decrease. In this context, PVC will usher in a short opportunity.

The industry enters the boom and downturn cycle

The upward cycle of PVC industry since 2016 is due to the resonance of supply side capacity cycle and demand side real estate cycle. At the end of 2015, PVC production enterprises experienced a clearance of backward production capacity, which maintained a negative growth from 2014 to 2016. At the same time, the real estate industry, as the largest downstream of PVC, has entered a new boom cycle since 2016, driving industrial products into the active replenishment stage. In this context, PVC price focus has been rising since 2016, industry profits have been improving, and out of the bull market.

By 2019, new production capacity began to emerge under the current situation of high profits in the industry, and demand side real estate entered a downward cycle. Therefore, judging from the whole industry cycle, we believe that PVC is now entering the downward cycle of industry boom, and the price center of gravity is likely to move down.

Short term seasonal supply increase and demand decrease

PVC upstream production enterprises have two periods of centralized maintenance in one year: Spring maintenance and autumn maintenance. Currently, the upstream is in the stage of autumn maintenance coming to an end. At present, the comprehensive operating rate of PVC upstream is about 72%, lower than 80% of the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will gradually rise with the completion of maintenance in the later stage. In addition, in the fourth quarter, new production capacity such as Zhongtai and Julong chemical will release production, so the overall aftermarket supply end pressure will increase month on month. From the demand side, at present, after entering the “golden nine silver ten” off-season, after entering the winter in the northern region, the downstream operating rate will appear obvious seasonal weakness. In terms of both supply and demand, we believe that PVC may have a turning point of accumulation in December.

There is a certain margin of safety in shorting

In terms of profit, due to the outsourcing of raw calcium carbide in North China, the production cost is much higher than that of the northwest integrated device, which is a high cost device in PVC production enterprises. At present, the profit of PVC single product in North China is 500 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive profit of chlor alkali is more than 1500 yuan / ton, so there is a big space for industry profit compression. In terms of basis, since January contract is a traditional seasonal off-season contract, the contract will maintain the status of discount spot over the years. Recently, with the rebound of futures, the basis narrowed to about 150 yuan / ton, which was at a low level in the same period of the previous year. Therefore, from the perspective of profit and basis, there is a margin of safety for short PVC.

At present, no matter pvc2001 contract or 2005 contract, they have been consolidated and oscillated for nearly three years. In the short term, the 250, 120, 60, 40, 20 and 10 day averages are all downward, facing a choice of direction. In terms of price support and pressure, pvc2001 contract is supported at 6200 yuan / ton line below and 6600 yuan / ton line above; pvc2005 contract is supported at 6000 yuan / ton line below and 6500 yuan / ton line above. In addition, from the analysis of the correlation between varieties, the related varieties closely related to the real estate industry, such as screw steel, power coal, coke, etc., are showing signs of breaking. If resonance occurs, the space under PVC will open.

To sum up, we think PVC is suitable for short. It is suggested to arrange the 2001 contract short order in the 6400-6600 yuan / ton range and the 2005 contract short order in the 6300-6500 yuan / ton range.

On November 10, the commodity index of hydrofluoric acid was 87.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 37.71% from 140.43 (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 63.24% from 53.59, the lowest point on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China is slightly lower. Up to now, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China is 9600 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is less than 60%. Enterprises report that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field is sufficient at present, and the goods in the hydrofluoric acid field can not be moved in the near future. Due to the lack of improvement in downstream demand, the prices of some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers are stuck, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid remains at a low level, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains at a low level.

The price of fluorite in the upstream market remains at a low level. As of the 11th day, the price of fluorite is 2861.11 yuan / ton. The fluctuation of upstream raw material price has limited support for the hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly lower due to the low price of raw material fluorite. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market is general, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 remains low. From the perspective of market supply, the market price of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the market supply capacity has declined, and the inventory pressure has been slowed down. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers only reduced the demand without increasing, and the mainstream price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-13000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is at a low level, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level, the market demand for refrigerants is reduced, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market declines. However, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower due to the lower transaction price and on-demand purchase. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower.

Generally speaking, the turnover in the refrigerant field is low, and the demand for upstream hydrofluoric acid market is limited, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient. However, with the temperature falling, the supply of fluorite is reduced, and the cost is supported to some extent. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business society, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may fluctuate at a low level, and may rise in the long run.

I. trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price slightly fell to 47183.33 yuan / ton, 0.42% lower than the previous trading day, 2.03% lower than the beginning of the year, and 4.57% lower than the previous year.

II. Market analysis

On the supply side, there have been frequent disturbances from the supply side of copper concentrate recently, among which a Chilean union leader supported the call for a 24-hour strike on November 12 in the fields of ports, mines, construction, retail, education and health care. However, in October, the supply of raw materials for copper mine was sufficient. Only Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi copper industry overhauled the roughing link, and the refining output was not affected. On the demand side, with the policy increasing, the possibility of domestic economic stabilization has increased. At present, there are signs of improvement in the main areas of copper consumption, but it is still not obvious.

III. future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business agency believe that: influenced by the negative comments of the United States on China US economic and trade consultation, the superimposition of domestic economic data shows that the pressure of stagflation is increasing and the overall atmosphere is empty. Supply and demand are weak, and it is estimated that copper prices will still be dominated by broad oscillation pattern.

The overall expectation of the market is pessimistic

In recent years, due to the strong demand of polyester industry, the demand for glycol in the domestic market has maintained a rapid growth trend. Since entering the 21st century, the apparent consumption of glycol has continued to increase significantly. In 2002, it broke through 3 million tons, reaching 3.0199 million tons, becoming the world’s largest glycol consumer country surpassing the United States. Due to the rapid growth of demand, it has promoted the increase of glycol production capacity. In recent years, many large-scale glycol production units in China have been completed and put into operation. With the increasing production capacity of glycol in China, the output is also increasing.

Although the production capacity and output of ethylene glycol in China are growing rapidly, it still can not meet the growing market demand of domestic polyester and so on. A large number of imports are needed every year, and the import volume is increasing year by year. At present, glycol products in China are mainly used to produce polyester, antifreeze, adhesives, paint solvents, cold resistant lubricants, surfactants and polyester polyols. Among them, polyester is the main consumption area of glycol in China, accounting for 94.0% of the total domestic consumption, and about 6.0% is used for antifreeze, adhesives, paint solvents, cold resistant lubricants, surfactants and polyester polyols. In recent years, the production of polyester (including polyester fiber, polyester resin and film) in China has developed rapidly. In 2010, the production of polyester will reach about 19 million tons, and the demand for glycol will reach about 6.65 million tons. In addition to the consumption of antifreeze and other aspects, it is expected that the total demand of glycol in China will still maintain a rapid growth.

At present, the supply of ethylene glycol is still in a medium low state, with 57.11% of the total domestic ethylene glycol starts (down), 60.24% of the non coal load (stable), and 52.69% of the coal production (down). Glycol prices fluctuated across the board, and the spot price in East China closed at 4630-4640 yuan / ton. The market supply is still at a relatively low level, which to some extent supports the mentality of the industry; the downstream polyester price has a narrow boost, but the substantive transaction is still poor; under the interweaving of long and empty markets, the transaction is light.

According to the production capacity data of CCF, currently it is known that the ethylene glycol production capacity that may be affected is 600000-800000 tons per year, and 40% – 50% of Saudi Arabia’s production capacity is exported to China. It can be considered that the impact on the domestic glycol supply will be at the level of 300000-400000 tons per year, affecting the operating rate of 3% – 4%. Whether there is likely to be a more serious impact in the future or whether there is a shortage of raw materials in other factories remains to be tracked, and geopolitical factors have become an unpredictable fuse in the glycol market. In addition, if there is no other accident, the lack of supply in import is likely to be filled by the increased domestic load with the increase of glycol price. Not only that, with the domestic price rising, the increase of import volume is also likely to occur.

The operation rate of ethylene glycol plant in China is about 60.24%, with a rise in the month on month ratio. The operation rate of coal glycol is about 68.22%, returning to the normal level. The MEG port inventory in East China’s main port area is about 498000 tons, an increase of 13000 tons compared with last week. The starting load of polyester plant is about 89.49%, which is still high. The production and sales of polyester are about 55%, and the sales volume has increased. On the basic level, the crude oil market fluctuates and is affected by weak sentiment, and the downstream polyester end demand is still at a low level, with further negative expectations, and the overall market expectations tend to be pessimistic.

From the perspective of the market, the main eg 2001 contract of glycol futures fell sharply in the early stage. After two or three weeks of narrow banner oscillation, it accumulated strength and fell again in large volume. The MACD green column index continued to spread, indicating the launch of another wave of declining market. Therefore, it is expected that after EG2001, the market will continue to be weak, with a high probability of further decline.

Based on the above judgment, we chose the trading strategy of shorting glycol Futures: establishing a short order of glycol 2001 contract, with an entry range of 4470-4500, a target price of 4000-4460, a stop loss price of 4510-4800, and entering in batches, with a total of no more than 60% of the total capital.