EU is the largest production and marketing area

Global production slows down and the EU remains the main production and marketing region

Biofuels can be divided into two categories: the first category refers to biofuels based on food crops or vegetable oil, including biodiesel produced by vegetable oil and bioethanol produced by corn and sugarcane; the second category is mainly non food crops, namely biodiesel produced by animal oil and waste edible oil and cellulosic ethanol produced by straw, hay, sawdust and other wastes.

Biodiesel is made from vegetable oil, animal oil, waste oil or microbial oil by transesterification with methanol or ethanol. B30 and B20 mentioned above refer to that in the mixed oil of petrochemical diesel and biodiesel, the proportion of biodiesel in the blend reaches 30% and 20%.

The growth rate of global biodiesel production has slowed down since 2009, especially since 2014. In 2017, the output is estimated to be 27 million tons, and the consumption and output changes are basically the same.

In terms of the global production distribution of biodiesel, the EU is close to 10 million tons, accounting for 36%; central and South America, North America, Asia and Oceania are basically the same, with a production of 5-6 million tons, accounting for about 20%.

From the distribution of global biodiesel consumption, EU accounts for half of the world, reaching 12 million tons, accounting for 48%; central and South America, North America, Asia and Oceania are basically the same, 4-4.5 million tons, accounting for about 18%.

Indonesia: under internal and external troubles, the growth of domestic demand is accelerating

As the main production area of palm oil, Indonesia and Malaysia use palm oil as the main raw material for biodiesel production, almost no imports, mainly exports. It is estimated that in 2019, Indonesia’s biodiesel output will be 6.5 million tons, exports 1.1 million tons, and domestic demand will be 5.4 million tons; Malaysia’s volume is relatively small, estimated output is 1.5 million tons, exports 650000 tons, and domestic demand is 850000 tons.

From 2013 to 2014, the Indonesian government set the mandatory blending proportion of biodiesel in diesel to 10%, increased it to 15% in 2015, and then increased it to 20% in 2016. However, due to various reasons, such as the lack of domestic blending facilities and weak policy implementation, the actual blending proportion in 2014-2017 did not meet the requirements of mandatory blending.

However, this situation has changed since 2018. On the one hand, the domestic palm oil production in Indonesia has increased substantially, and the pressure on raw material inventory has been increasing; on the other hand, the export environment has been deteriorating, and in 2019, the EU re imposed anti dumping duties on Indonesia’s biodiesel, and due to environmental protection issues, it is proposed to implement the ban on palm oil biodiesel, while the United States since 20 Since 17, countervailing duties have been imposed on Indonesia’s biodiesel. In the context of internal and external troubles, the Indonesian government tries to expand the domestic demand of biodiesel, strengthen the implementation of policies, and increase the actual blending rate to 20% in 2019, which is expected to reach the goal of B20 plan.

The Indonesian government will implement the B30 plan from January 1, 2020. It is expected that the actual mixing rate will reach 25% – 30% in 2020, which will bring about an increase in palm oil demand of 1.4-2.7 million tons. However, the export is expected to continue to decline, with a decrease in palm oil demand of about 650000 tons. As a whole, the implementation of B30 plan in Indonesia will increase the demand of 750000-2050000 tons of palm oil.

Malaysia: rapid growth of production, capacity or “ceiling”

In 2014, the Malaysian government implemented the B5 plan nationwide. In 2015, it was increased to B7 (7% biodiesel blending), and in 2019, it was increased to B10 (10% biodiesel blending).

Under the circumstance of high subsidy in China, the production profit of biodiesel in Malaysia is good. In recent years, the growth rate of biodiesel production has been maintained at 30%. However, at this stage, the capacity of biodiesel in Malaysia is 2 million tons. Limited by the capacity pressure, it is estimated that the capacity of biodiesel in 2020 will be 1.8 million tons, bringing about an increase in palm oil demand of 350000 tons.

It is reported that the Malaysian government plans to implement the B20 plan in advance at the beginning of 2020, but if the domestic production capacity cannot be expanded, it can only change the export and domestic demand structure of biodiesel, i.e. increase domestic demand and reduce export, which has little impact on the overall biodiesel production.

EU: slow growth of domestic demand and continuous trade protection

In 2018, the EU’s biodiesel production reached 12.5 million tons and consumption was 14 million tons. Unlike Indonesia and Malaysia, in the international trade of biodiesel, the EU mainly imports. In 2018, the imports reached 3 million tons, significantly higher than in previous years, mainly due to the significant increase in the imports of Argentina and Indonesia. On November 26, 2013, the EU formally imposed a five-year anti-dumping duty on the biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia. However, before the five-year period, Argentina won in the WTO in 2017 and Indonesia won in 2018. The cancellation of the anti-dumping duty led to a sharp increase in the EU’s biodiesel imports in 2018.

The raw materials of biodiesel produced in the EU are rich, mainly rapeseed oil; the second is waste edible oil, palm oil, soybean oil, etc. However, the cost of biodiesel produced from rapeseed oil is higher than that of palm oil and soybean oil. In order to protect its biodiesel industry, the EU has set up certain tariff barriers to Argentina, the United States and Indonesia for a long time.

In July 2009, the EU formally implemented a five-year double anti-tariff on biodiesel imported from the United States. In 2015, the period was extended to September 2020. Although Argentina and Indonesia won the case in the WTO, the EU had to continue to take measures to limit the exports of the two countries due to the large increase of exports to the EU in 2018. In December 2018, the European Commission proposed to resume the countervailing of Argentine biodiesel Tariff, the tax rate is set at 25% – 33.4%. After negotiation, in February 2019, the EU decided to exempt eight Argentine biodiesel producers, who were allowed to export biodiesel to the EU without paying tariff, as long as they were sold at the lowest price. In August 2019, the EU formally imposed an anti subsidy tax of 8% – 18% on biodiesel imported from Indonesia. The market expects that the EU will decide whether to impose a long-term anti subsidy tax on biodiesel exported from Indonesia to Europe in mid December.

In recent years, there have been some changes in the development of biodiesel within the EU. Due to the food and environmental protection issues involved, it is proposed to limit the consumption of biofuels based on food crops, increase the consumption of biofuels based on non food crops, and require Member States to reduce the proportion of using the first type of biofuels in the transport sector to 7% by 2020. The European Union renewable energy directive (redii) further requires that the mixing limit of the first type of biofuels based on food crops should be reduced from 7% in 2021 to 3.8% in 2030, and the mixing limit of the second type of biofuels should be increased from 1.5% in 2021 to 6.8% in 2030. It can be seen from the raw material structure of EU biodiesel over the years that the consumption of waste edible oil and animal oil is increasing year by year, while that of vegetable oil is declining to some extent, and this trend will continue in the future.

EU plans to ban palm oil-based biodiesel, and will gradually stop using palm oil to produce biodiesel before 2030, which will directly affect the import volume of 2.5 million tons of palm oil used to produce biodiesel. In addition, EU re imposes anti dumping tax on Indonesia biodiesel in 2019. In recent years, trade disputes between EU, Indonesia and Malaysia continue.

Looking forward to 2020, it is estimated that the domestic demand of EU biodiesel will remain stable with an increase of 300000 tons. In terms of import, due to the EU’s re restrictions on Indonesia and Argentina’s import, the estimated import reduction is 400000 tons.

The United States: rapid decline in imports and gradual increase in domestic demand

There are a wide range of raw materials for biodiesel production in the United States, of which soybean oil accounts for more than 60%. It is estimated that the output of biodiesel in 2019 will reach 6-6.5 million tons. In terms of import, in the past, the U.S. biodiesel import mainly came from Argentina and Indonesia. The import volume of the two countries increased rapidly from 2013 to 2017, when the U.S. Department of Commerce decided to impose countervailing tax on the import of biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia, which restricted the import of biodiesel from the two countries. Thus, the import volume of biodiesel from the U.S. began to decline rapidly, from 2.3 million in 2016 Tons fell to 550000 tons in 2018.

The United States has a strong support for agriculture, so it has also introduced corresponding incentive policies for biodiesel. On the one hand, since 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has set a minimum annual use of biodiesel, such as 800 million gallons in 2011, 2.1 billion gallons in 2018, 2.43 billion gallons in 2019, 2.43 billion gallons in 2020, and the current U.S. production capacity is 2.55 billion gallons, about 8.4 million tons; on the other hand, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has set a minimum annual use of biodiesel On the one hand, biodiesel has a subsidy of US $1 / gallon and a tax credit policy.

In 2020, under the condition of unchanged policy, the import of biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia will still be limited. It is expected that the net import of biodiesel from the United States will be the same as that in 2019, maintaining at the level of 200000 tons. In order to meet the minimum usage standard of the United States Environmental Protection Agency, the domestic demand and production will continue to increase, with an estimated increase of 500000-1 million tons. The raw material end and vegetable oil will increase The volume is 400000-800000 tons, including 250000-550000 tons of soybean oil.

Brazil: self-sufficiency, increasing production

Biodiesel produced in Brazil is mainly made of soybean oil, supplemented by butter, accounting for 70% – 80% of the total, which is in a self-sufficient market with small import and export volume. It is estimated that the output will reach 5 million tons in 2019.

Its biodiesel policy has been steadily promoted. In early 2008, the compulsory blending standard was set at 2%, in the second half of the year, it was increased to 3%, in 2009 to 4%, in 2010 to 5%, in 2014 to 7%, in 2016 to 8%, in 2017 to 9%, in 2018 to 10%, and in 2019 to 11%.

It is estimated that the output of biodiesel in Brazil will increase by about 350000 tons in 2020, bringing about an increase of 200000 tons of soybean oil and 50000 tons of butter.

Argentina: hard work, export dawn

Argentina’s biodiesel production is also dominated by soybean oil. In 2019, the output of biodiesel is estimated to be 2.2 million tons. The difference in export tax rates between raw materials and biodiesel (high raw materials, low biodiesel), makes Argentina play a major role in the international trade of biodiesel. In recent years, Argentina has been struggling against the trade barriers of the European Union and the United States, but at this stage In February 2019, the EU exempted 1.13 million tons of biodiesel imports from Argentina that met the established lowest price (soybean oil price + production cost). In 2018, Argentina exported 1.4 million tons of biodiesel to the EU. In August 2019, the United States adjusted Argentina’s countervailing duty from 72% to 10%, but the antidumping duty has not been cancelled, which is 75%. Argentina’s biodiesel export window to the United States The export volume of biodiesel in Argentina is estimated to be 1 million tons in 2019.

Argentina’s earliest biodiesel policy was clause 26.093 in 2006, i.e. reaching the goal of b5 in January 2010, implementing B7 plan in February 2010, and increasing to B10 in April 2016. In 2017, the actual mixing rate of Argentina has reached more than 9%. It is expected that the domestic demand will remain stable in 2020, the export will slightly decline by 100000 tons, the output will decrease by 100000 tons, and the soybean oil will be reduced by 100000 tons.

On November 30, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

In November, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market remained at a high level, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant started normal operation, the supply of goods in the near future was normal, and the domestic price trend remained at a high level. In the near future, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has improved, and the downstream purchase is on demand. In the near future, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2500 yuan / ton.

In November, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China fell slightly, down 5.72%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1600 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1600 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1800 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1650 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1600 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance devices have been restarted continuously, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market has increased, and the on-site delivery situation is general. Affected by negative factors, the price of ammonium nitrate market continued to decline in November, and the price of raw material nitric acid has declined, which is a big negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market.

In November, the overall supply of liquid ammonia in the upstream market was loose, and the unit operating rate of the enterprise was slightly higher. The domestic liquid ammonia market tends to be stable, with a slight decline in some areas. In November, the drop of liquid ammonia was 5.43%. In late November, most of the manufacturers reported stable, some of them went down 50 yuan / ton. Some enterprises in the main production area of Shandong Province maintained stable, some of them fell 50 yuan / ton. The price in the northwest region remained stable. At present, the local ammonia volume is surplus, especially some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply, and the enterprise’s delivery pressure is gradually increasing However, the price of manufacturers with large ammonia is mainly stable. The main quotation in Shandong is 2750-2850 yuan / ton. However, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is not optimistic nationwide. The overall trend of the upstream liquid ammonia Market declined, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the market price of raw materials falls, and the market price of ammonium nitrate loses cost support. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain high volatility in the later period.

On December 1, the rare earth index was 336, unchanged from yesterday, 66.40% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 23.99% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average prices of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium are 360000 yuan / ton, 2035000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide is 284500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide is increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1640000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 335000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide is 286500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 360000 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1630000 yuan / ton.

The price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market continued to rise, the domestic supply policy of heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth improved, and the domestic price of heavy rare earth rose. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the notice on the total amount control indexes of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The total amount control indexes of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 were 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively. The total control index of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) mining in China is 105000 tons, including 78150 tons of main mining index and 26850 tons of comprehensive utilization index. In addition, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts in strict inspection, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. The supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, China’s domestic demand has improved, and the price of domestic rare earth market has increased.

Rare earth analysts of the business club expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection will not be reduced in China. In addition, the order of rare earth industry will be rectified in China, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will maintain a low level. However, in the near future, the national rare earth export will get good support, and the rare earth market is expected to rise slightly.

I. price trend 

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA66 in China continued to be weak and stable in November, while the low price was temporarily stable. As of November 31, the average offer price of PA66 is about 23100.00 yuan / ton, which is the same as the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

In the upstream of PA66 this month, adipic acid continued the weak market in October and has been in the downward channel for three consecutive months, with a cumulative decline of 7.13% from September to November. At present, loose supply, weak demand and loss of cost support are the three main reasons for dragging the market. In November, the downstream demand for adipic acid became weaker; in addition, the steady increase of supply led to the increase of social inventory pressure, and the long-term inventory removal of enterprises was not significant, so the price fell again and again. In terms of region: the markets in East China and South China have declined, but the decline has narrowed compared with that in October. The market atmosphere is slightly bleak, dealers are mainly active in shipping, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market has a heavy wait-and-see mentality, the transaction is slightly deadlocked, and there is room for businesses to save and transfer profits. In addition, the upstream cost side lost the key support. Although pure benzene ended the slump in September October, the rebound effect is not ideal at present. The MDI of related products is also not optimistic, and the price remains weak, which is an important reason for the loss of support in the cost side of adipic acid and the price slump. It is estimated that adipic acid will not get out of the haze in a short time before this year; at the beginning of this month, the spot supply of PA66 market is still abundant, the terminal market is still just in need of goods, and the downstream factories have less inquiries, so the purchase is light. The weak mentality of the industry has not changed, and most orders are flexible. In November, the overall domestic market of PA66 still showed weak and stable adjustment.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the domestic PA66 market in November was weak and stable. The upstream adipic acid continued to weaken, but the decline narrowed, which had limited support for PA66 cost side. There is no improvement in the enthusiasm of downstream stock up, and the strategy of just need to take the goods as the main strategy. The market buying is light, the industry is still bearish, and the operation is limited. It is expected that PA66 will continue to operate weakly and stably in the near future.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, acetic anhydride market fell sharply in November. As of November 30, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 4750.00 yuan / ton, down 625.00 yuan / ton, or 11.63% compared with 5375.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 31.82% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

It can be seen from the figure that the price of acetic anhydride fell for three consecutive months. In November, the market of acetic anhydride was weak and obvious. The demand for acetic anhydride was limited. In terms of supply, the operating rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers was maintained, the supply of acetic anhydride was stable, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general. Customers purchased on demand. The overall market of acetic anhydride was bearish, and the downward pressure on the market of acetic anhydride remained, and the upward momentum was insufficient. As of the end of November, the actual transaction price of acetic anhydride fell to about 4500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price of acetic anhydride fell sharply, and the market of acetic anhydride was negative.

Industry chain factor analysis:

It can be seen from the figure that in November, the price of acetic acid and methanol both fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell sharply, and the pressure of acetic anhydride falling increased. In terms of demand, the demand for acetic anhydride is general, and customers purchase on demand. And with the state’s control and transportation restrictions on acetic anhydride and other precursor products, the customer’s inventory and stock are limited, and the overall demand for acetic anhydride is weakened.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data in the business association, acetic anhydride raw materials, acetic acid and methanol, fell in November, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the market of acetic anhydride was negative; for downstream customers, the demand for acetic anhydride was general, while downstream customers purchased on demand, and the demand for acetic anhydride was limited. On the whole, acetic anhydride fell under great pressure, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate slightly in the future.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, in November, the supply of zinc exceeded the demand, the market of zinc was depressed, and the price of zinc fell in shock. As of November 30, the spot price of zinc was 18466.67 yuan / ton, down 3.70% from 19176.67 yuan / ton on November 1, down 11.95% from the same period last year.

II. Market trend analysis

China manufacturing PMI up

According to the website of the National Bureau of statistics, in November 2019, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.2%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month. After being below the critical point for six consecutive months, it returned to the expansion range again. The PMI of manufacturing industry in November reflects the changes of China’s economic environment in the near future: both sides of supply and demand have improved, import and export have improved, the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises has generally picked up, and the transformation and upgrading have been accelerated. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry investigation center of the National Bureau of statistics, believes that the downward pressure of manufacturing industry still exists due to external uncertainties and other factors. According to the price index reflecting the market changes, the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials are 49.0% and 47.3%, down 1.4% and 0.7% respectively from the previous month, both falling for two consecutive months. Some enterprises reported that the transformation and upgrading have achieved certain results and the business environment has improved, but the problem of capital shortage is still prominent. According to the survey results, the proportion of enterprises reflecting the shortage of funds was 38.2%, higher than 1.5 percentage points last month. From the change of macro-economic environment, we can see the embarrassing situation of zinc market at this stage. The supply and demand environment picked up in November, which was good for zinc city. However, due to the shortage of enterprise funds and the transmission of capital pressure to the upstream, the rising power of zinc city was limited, and the zinc price fell.

The growth rate of commercial housing sales turns positive for the first time in the year

According to the website of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to October, the sales area of commercial housing was 1332.51 million square meters, with the growth rate turning from negative to positive for the first time since this year, up 0.1% year on year. The sales area of commercial housing increased slightly, but there is still a certain gap compared with the market expectation of the golden nine silver ten. The demand for zinc ingots in the real estate market has a rising trend, but compared with the supply growth of zinc ingots, the zinc market is still oversupplied In demand, the impact of the real estate market on the domestic zinc market is negative.

Galvanized steel plate rose in shock

It can be seen from the table that the zinc plate market rose slightly in November, and the demand for zinc ingots rose, which is good for zinc market. Zinc market has a certain upward momentum, but due to the small increase of zinc plate and insufficient support for zinc ingot, the upward momentum of zinc market is limited.

III. future prospects

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, from the perspective of macro-economic environment, the domestic economic environment picked up in November, and the demand of zinc market rose; although the real estate market did not expect the gold nine silver ten market to appear, the overall performance was stable, and the demand for zinc ingots was strong; the rise of zinc plate market was good for the demand for zinc ingots, but it was not enough to change the supply-demand balance of zinc market; the pressure of enterprise operation funds One of the main reasons to reduce the price drop of zinc ingot is to force the enterprise to reduce the purchase cost and transfer the capital pressure to the upstream. The output of zinc ingot keeps rising in 19 years, the stock of zinc market is surplus, and the oversupply of zinc market provides the supply and demand environment for the enterprise to reduce the purchase price of zinc ingot. The high cost of zinc concentrate processing determines the lower limit of zinc price, and the space for zinc price to fall is limited. To sum up, zinc market demand is good in the near future, but it is hard to resist the negative pressure of zinc market. It is expected that zinc price will fluctuate slightly in the future.

I. trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of cobalt fell sharply this week. Although Glencore stopped production in advance, it was still difficult to change the weak trend of the cobalt market, and the price of cobalt fell in shock. As of November 30, the price of cobalt was 260833.33 yuan / ton, down 2.49% compared with the average price of 267500.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week (November 22), and down 29.55% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Glencore closed mutanda copper and cobalt mine in advance

Due to the insufficient supply of sulfuric acid, mutanda copper cobalt mine entered the maintenance period ahead of schedule on November 26. So far, the event of price protection for nearly 4 months has been officially realized. The shutdown of Glencore copper and cobalt mine has certain impact on the supply of cobalt. The supply of cobalt in the future market is expected to decline, which is good for the price of cobalt. Glencore still has inventory sales, there will be no shortage of cobalt supply, and the upward momentum of cobalt market is limited.

New energy vehicle sales decline

According to the new energy vehicle production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 95000 and 75000 respectively, down 35.4% and 45.6% compared with the same period of last year. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 983000 and 947000 respectively, an increase of 11.7% and 10.1% over the same period of last year. At present, the new energy market is still in the adjustment period after the recession. With the impact of the low price of second-hand new energy vehicles, the sales volume of new energy vehicles not only fell sharply compared with last year’s sales volume, but also fell in October compared with September’s sales volume. The recent downturn performance of new energy vehicles has a huge impact on the cobalt market. The recent demand decline of the cobalt market has a negative impact on the cobalt market.

Domestic mobile phone shipments fell month on month

According to the data of China Academy of communications, in October 2019, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 35.969 million, down 6.7% year on year and 0.7% month on month; in January October 2019, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 323 million, down 5.8% year on year. The sharp decline of mobile phone sales shows the weak demand of cobalt Market in the near future. Under the condition that the supply of cobalt market remains unchanged, the downward pressure of cobalt market is greater.

III. future prospects

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business club, Glencore closed the cobalt mine ahead of time, which objectively affected the supply of cobalt Market in the future. The supply of cobalt market is expected to decrease. However, as Glencore still has cobalt stock sales, it is difficult to determine the amount of cobalt market supply reduction. The sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones continued to be depressed, and the demand for cobalt fell significantly. The oversupply of supply and demand in the cobalt market will not be improved in the short term due to the shutdown of Glencore. With the annual close, cobalt traders sold cobalt stocks at a low price in order to relieve the capital pressure, which is also the reason why the price of cobalt continued to decline in the near future. Glencore’s production reduction did not bring enough confidence to the cobalt market, and the downstream enterprises of cobalt did not have enough pressure to prepare goods in advance. Generally speaking, the shutdown of Glencore has not fundamentally changed the weak market of cobalt market, and the driving force for the rise of cobalt price is limited. However, with the continuous impact of the decrease of Glencore’s Cobalt supply and the recovery of new energy vehicles and 3C market, the price of cobalt is bound to rise, and the space for the fall of cobalt price is limited. It is expected that the price of cobalt in the future will be stable, and the price of cobalt in December may be slightly warmer

At the market analysis forum of this year’s phosphorus and compound fertilizer production and marketing meeting, Andrea Valentini, the fertilizer market commentator of Argus, made a report on the review and outlook of the global fertilizer and raw material market, and analyzed and predicted the global fertilizer market and the medium and short-term market situation. At the same time, Wang Bei, deputy general manager of Zhongnong Group Holding Co., Ltd., made an in-depth analysis and prediction on the global import and export of potash fertilizer and the domestic market trend of winter storage under the title of “looking at the world through potash fertilizer”. A kind of

short term supply surplus of nitrogen fertilizer

new production is worthy of attention

According to Andrea Valentini’s analysis, at this stage, the global nitrogen fertilizer is in the stage of high production capacity, and the market will continue to maintain the situation of oversupply before 2023. Then, the nitrogen fertilizer market and trade market will change because the new production cannot keep up with the growth of demand. Chinese style

From the perspective of new production, investment capacity in Europe and America is limited, and new production areas are mainly concentrated in Nigeria, India, Russia, Iran and Egypt. Among them, there are two changes worthy of attention: first, Nigeria (natural gas cost $1.5-2 / mmbtu), Russia (natural gas cost $0.5-3.5 / mmbtu) and other regions, as a result of the low cost of natural gas and investment and construction, promote the continuous increase of new production; second, India’s annual urea demand is about 30 million tons, of which more than 10 million tons need to be imported, but In recent years, through continuous investment and construction of LNG urea production plant, India’s urea import has been rapidly reduced from 10 million tons / year to 6 million tons / year. According to Andrea Valentini, with the barauni hurl gas supply improvement project listed in the determined capacity, India will add four new urea production units by 2022, with the expected capacity growth rate of more than 5 million tons / year, and its external dependence on urea demand will drop significantly, which will deeply affect the traditional international trade pattern of urea. Chinese style

On the part of China, the sharp decline in exports from 2016 to 2017 led to a decrease in the net surplus in the international market, which led to a tight supply trend in the international urea market in 2018, which should be postponed to 2019. However, due to the impact of the devaluation of the RMB and the decline of energy prices, the export volume of China’s urea this year tends to be significantly surplus. With the slowing down of the shutdown of excess capacity and the increasing supply of natural gas, China’s urea export volume is expected to rise from the original 4-5 million tons next year. But overall, China’s urea production capacity will continue to decline. A kind of

in view of the international urea market trend in the next five years, Andrea Valentini analysis said that it is expected that in 2020-2021, 5 million tons of new export-oriented production will exceed the growth of market demand, and the market may tend to be weak. From 2023 to 2024, the new production increase can be slowed down significantly, or the situation of supply shortage will appear again. It should be noted that the early production of some projects will fill the demand gap and become an unpredictable trade risk point. A kind of

Phosphorus fertilizer tends to be regional

Production can reduce year-round

In recent years, the trend of regional phosphate fertilizer market is very obvious. For example, the North-South American market represented by OCP, and the Asian market to the east of Suez Canal represented by ma’aden. Andrea Valentini pointed out that unlike the saturation of market demand in other regions, the emerging market in Brazil still has considerable room to increase the demand for phosphate fertilizer, thus attracting the high attention of OCP, ma’aden, mosaic and phosphate fertilizer enterprises from China. Chinese style

For the international phosphate fertilizer market in 2019, the merger of kaip and Wengfu is undoubtedly an event with far-reaching impact. In response, Andrea Valentini said that in the past period, high cost, environmental pressure, zero growth policy of chemical fertilizer, increasingly strict issuance of mining license, fierce export competition and other factors severely restricted the development of Chinese phosphate fertilizer enterprises, which also contributed to the integration of Chinese phosphate fertilizer industry. Some enterprises without resources and environmental protection standards are gradually squeezed out of the market, and large-scale horizontal reorganization and integration among large enterprises may continue to cause the annual decline of China’s phosphate fertilizer production capacity. A kind of

from the perspective of export, in the first quarter of this year, domestic demand for diammonium was not strong, and suppliers paid close attention to Indian diammonium bidding. In the first half of the year, 1.3 million tons of diammonium were shipped from China to India, an increase of 34%. In the second half of the year, the international market declined as a whole, and China’s export of diammonium was blocked, especially the export price fell sharply. Chinese enterprises began to jointly limit production to stabilize the market. A kind of

compared with the measures taken by Chinese enterprises to jointly limit production, the international phosphate fertilizer giants, such as OCP and ma’aden, did not limit production, but sought sales through continuous operation, resulting in a continuous surplus of global phosphate fertilizer supply. With the rapid growth of raw material capacity, such as sulfur, the price of phosphate fertilizer continued to decline. Enterprises in North America are also faced with environmental protection, resource depletion, mining restrictions and other issues, mainly through horizontal integration, closure of some projects, and optimization of production capacity and product structure. Throughout the year, large suppliers will not significantly reduce production, the global phosphorus fertilizer will be perennial surplus, the situation of oversupply is difficult to ease for a while. Chinese style

In addition, Andrea Valentini also noted that IMO’s new regulations on Desulfurization of ship fuel oil will be officially implemented in 2020. According to the requirements of the new regulations, the fuel oil raw materials of cargo ships need to be changed from heavy acid oil with high sulfur content to light sweet oil with sulfur content less than 0.5% or natural gas as fuel. Cargo ships still using acid oil need to be equipped with high cost desulfurization devices. After the implementation of the new rules, it will inevitably lead to a significant increase in shipping costs, especially the impact on FOB prices. A kind of

potash international giant monopolizes supply

excess capacity may continue to increase

after the first quarter of 2019, potash market experienced a round of downward trend. At this stage, the monopoly of potash supply by international giants has not changed, and the industry concentration is still quite high. Andrea Valentini said that since 2009, the new production of international potash fertilizer has begun to exceed the growth rate of market demand, and the new production is mainly concentrated in Canada, Russia, Belarus and China. In this environment, any new production will lead to the continuous decline of potash market. He expects that, despite the closure of projects, the oversupply of potash fertilizer market will continue to grow in the future. In the short term, potash market will remain weak. Chinese style

According to the global import and export of potash fertilizer, Wang Bei analyzed that in 2018, the global trade volume of potash fertilizer was 53.49 million tons, of which Brazil, China, India and Southeast Asia accounted for 60% of the total import volume of potash fertilizer. Specifically, affected by weather and flood disasters, the U.S. imported 5.64 million tons of potash fertilizer from January to August 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 10%; the trade of potash fertilizer in Southeast Asia is relatively flexible, dominated by large-scale planting bidding and spot trade, and greatly affected by palm oil market. From January to August 2019, Indonesia imported 2.12 million tons of potash fertilizer, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and Malaysia imported 830000 tons from January to July 2019 , a year-on-year decrease of 20%; Brazil’s demand for potash fertilizer continues to increase, with imports reaching 7.98 million tons from January to September 2019, a year-on-year increase of 11%; India adopts the form of annual long-term cooperation + short-term bidding and government subsidies, with imports of 2.98 million tons of potash fertilizer from January to July 2019, basically the same year-on-year. Brazil’s large farmers have strong financial strength and great demand potential. At this stage, they have become the price benchmark of the global high-end spot market of potash fertilizer. Chinese style

China’s annual demand for potash fertilizer is 15-16 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 55%. Influenced by the decline of agricultural product quotation, the increase of environmental protection supervision and the continuous decline of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer product quotation, it is expected that the domestic demand for potash fertilizer will decline, and potash fertilizer price will remain weak. In view of the unilateral downward trend of potash fertilizer price in this year, few shocks, and large-scale losses of domestic import businesses, Wang Bei analyzed that the main factors of Zui are the rapid growth of supply and high inventory. According to data statistics, from January to September 2019, China imported 7.653 million tons of potash fertilizer, an increase of 2.09 million tons over the same period last year. It is expected to import 8-8.3 million tons in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 550000-850000 tons. From January to August 2019, the domestic potash fertilizer was converted into 4.689 million tons of pure (K2O), and the expected physical quantity was 7.5-8 million tons, which was the high growth rate of Zui among all kinds of fertilizer. In addition, the stock increase of domestic potash fertilizer this year also reached about 1.5-1.7 million tons. With the increase of supply and the high stock, the price of potash fertilizer has been affected to some extent. In comparison, the international prices of nitrogen and phosphorus have declined in this year, with a drop of more than $100 per ton for Zui high and a relatively small drop of $30-50 per ton for potash.

Wang Bei said that from the perspective of potash fertilizer, we should focus on the following aspects: first, macro-economic situation. At this stage, economic growth slows down, Sino US trade war and RMB exchange rate adjustment lead to the increase of trade costs, and we should pay attention to the new international production and changes in major markets such as Brazil, India, the United States and Southeast Asia; second, port inventory, Special attention should be paid to the difference between bonded goods and imported stock, and the structure of its stock products. For example, the stock of potash fertilizer in Northeast China this year is 400000 tons, of which only 240000 tons are large grains. The demand gap is large. In addition, the stock proportion of red powder and white crystal is also low. Third, the arrival situation. It is expected that after October, the supply of tradable potash will not increase any more, and the imported potash fertilizer will enter the stage of one-way storage. In the short term Fourth, the negotiation on import of potassium is not smooth this year, and no long-term agreement has been signed. It is expected that the negotiation will be reopened before and after the Spring Festival in 2020, so we should pay attention to the timing and price of land and sea transportation import.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average spot price of domestic gold on 28th was 330.30 yuan / g, 3.79% lower than that on 1st day, 343.30 yuan / g; 358.55 yuan / g, 7.88% lower than the annual peak (September 4); 284.10 yuan / g, 16.26% higher than that at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On the 28th, the spot price of silver in China was 4096 yuan / kg, down 6.21% compared with the spot price of silver on the 1st, 4367 yuan / kg; on the 4th of September, the spot price of silver was 4771 yuan / kg, down 14.15%; and on the 1st of the year, 3617.67 yuan / kg, up 13.22%.

Early release of monetary easing expectation

The market gave feedback on the Fed’s October interest rate resolution in advance. The federal funds rate was cut by 25 basis points to 1.50% – 1.75%, basically in line with market expectations.

In addition to the Fed’s interest rate cut, the following are the loose policies:

Brazil’s central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5%, the third rate cut in the year.

The Saudi central bank cut the repo rate from 250bps to 225bps and the reverse repo rate from 200bps to 175bps.

The Bank of Bahrain cut the overnight deposit rate from 2.25% to 2%, and the Bank of Bahrain cut the one month deposit rate from 2.85% to 2.6%.

In addition, the central banks of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have also cut interest rates.

The wave of monetary easing at the end of October did not become the main factor affecting the precious metal market.

According to the data of business agency, the spot price of precious metal gold was basically stable in October, with a slight decrease of 0.77% in the month, and the spot price of precious metal silver rose by 1.92%.

Amplification of factors influencing the negotiation process of major trading countries on precious metals

With the reversal of market expectations for the trade negotiation process of major trading countries, the gradient of risk aversion slowed down. While there is still uncertainty about the future, optimism prevailed in November.

On the morning of November 26, Liu He, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council and China’s leader of the China US comprehensive economic dialogue, spoke with us trade representative lait Heze and finance minister mu nuqin. The two sides discussed the resolution of each other’s core concerns, reached consensus on the resolution of relevant issues, and agreed to maintain communication on the remaining issues of the first phase of the agreement and consultation. The first phase of the trade agreement between China and the United States is expected.

As the influence of risk factors weakens, the demand for precious metals to avoid risks is hardly favored by the market.

Physical demand moves down in the third quarter

According to the data of the world gold association, the global demand for gold ornaments fell by 16% year-on-year in the third quarter to 460.9 tons, and the investment demand for gold coins and bars halved.

In the third quarter, the domestic demand for gold ornaments fell 12% to 156.3 tons year on year, the fourth consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline, 10% lower than the single quarter average of 173.5 tons in the past five years. China’s demand for gold bars and coins fell 51% to 42.8 tons, the lowest level in three years.

The growth of gold reserves of major central banks slowed down year on year in the third quarter

According to the world gold association, the gold reserves of the world’s major central banks increased 156.2 tons in the third quarter. Growth slowed 38% compared with the same period last year. (Note: the third quarter of 2018 is the highest quarter for central banks in the world since we have recorded.)

China’s gold reserves at the end of October were 62.64 million ounces, compared with 62.64 million ounces in September, the State Administration of foreign exchange said Thursday.

Although the growth slowed down year on year, the trend of increasing gold holdings by major central banks around the world remained unchanged. It is reported that in the first three quarters of 2019, the world’s major central banks bought 547.5 tons of gold, up 12% year on year. Increasing the number of central banks, such as Hungary, Poland and Serbia.

Long empty game in December

Long argument:

1. Gold has a monetary attribute. Central banks have frequent loose policies, and interest rate cuts support precious metal prices.

As recently reported, ASB Bank expects the New Zealand Federal Reserve to cut interest rates once instead of twice in 2020. The overall direction is still to cut interest rates. (in August 2019, the New Zealand Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 50 basis points, currently, the official interest rate of the New Zealand Federal Reserve is 1%)

Game arguments:

1. It is uncertain whether the new tariffs on US $156 billion worth of Chinese goods will be cancelled or delayed since they came into effect on December 15, especially the frequent port related operations of the United States in the near future.

2. The UK will hold a general election on December 12, which will affect the process of brexit. There are large uncertainties, which may increase the demand for hedging.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spot market price of PTA in China continued to decline slightly. As of November 28, the average price was 4800 yuan / ton, down 0.80% compared with the previous trading day, down 23.52% year on year. In the futures market, the main futures of PTA fell in shock, and ended at 4726 yuan / ton (2001), down 44 yuan / ton, or 0.92% compared with the previous trading day. Trading volume increased by 376000 to 1255700 and positions decreased by 14312 to 140900. After the buyback of suppliers, another 1.1 million tons of Dushan energy line was put into operation successfully, Hainan Yisheng and Yadong petrochemical plants were restarted successively, and the supply end was pressurized. At the same time, the downstream purchases are cautious and there is a weakening expectation. The spot market lacks clear good news support, and prices continue to decline.

Changes of PTA plants in China in November

Enterprise name capacity device dynamics

Jialong Petrochemical 60 was shut down for maintenance on August 2, and the restart was to be determined

Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. 150 shut down on November 12 as scheduled, and planned to maintain for 2 weeks

Maintenance in December is planned for hailun Petrochemical 120

Ningbo Taizhou Chemical Co., Ltd. stopped for a short time on November 13 and resumed normal production

Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on November 13, 70. At present, the unit has been heated up and restarted, and now it has been discharged

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced load by 90% at 220

Chuanneng chemical 100 fault stopped short on November 1, and the current load is 80%

Yisheng Hainan 200 has been gradually warmed up and restarted. The device was shut down for maintenance on November 22

In terms of cost, on November 27, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 6 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 777 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 797 US dollars / ton CFR China, which formed a certain support for PTA. Near the end of the month, the downstream polyester market has a strong wait-and-see mood. The prices of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are flat, among which the polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 6900.00-7250.00 yuan / ton. DTY (150D / 48F low bomb) is at 8500.00-8750.00 yuan / ton, and FDY (150D / 96F) is at 6950.00-7250.00 yuan / ton. At present, the new orders of the terminal weaving factory are relatively common, the pressure of weaving finished products inventory is still there, and the raw material market support is limited. Under the multiple negative drag, the downstream and terminal factories have taken the measures of reducing the load and avoiding the risk while maintaining the rigid demand for replenishment. At the same time, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms rebounded after the National Day holiday, and the market confidence was insufficient, so the purchasing was cautious.

Xia Ting, an analyst with the business society, believes that the PTA plant will be put into production intensively at present, the supply will gradually accumulate, and the downstream polyester plant is expected to reduce production, especially the polyester plant has a large area maintenance plan from late December to January. In the absence of new orders from terminal textile factories, there is a possibility of further decline in the opening rate of weaving factories in the later period, with negative factors looming, and PTA market is expected to continue to be weak. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the nodes of centralized replenishment of downstream and terminal factories before the festival.