I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price trend of domestic TDI market decreased slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in East China was 11466.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average market price was 11400.00 yuan / ton, down 0.58% in the week, down 44.39% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic TDI market was weak, the overall market atmosphere was general, the downstream market intention was weak, the transaction was weak, the mentality of the industry was different, some of the stable shipments were reported higher. As of the 13th, the quotation of domestic goods with bills in East China was 10700-10900 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills was 11000-11200 yuan / ton. The overall market atmosphere was weak, the inquiry and purchase were not smooth, and most of the enterprises kept stable shipment.

Industry chain: the price of upstream nitric acid was slightly reduced. The average market price in East China at the weekend was 1600.00 yuan / ton, 1.03% lower than 1616.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The market of nitric acid industry was sluggish, with general demand. The quotation of enterprises was basically stable and maintained weak. The quotation of individual manufacturers was also reduced. It is expected that the nitric acid market will continue to be weak.

In terms of upstream toluene, the market was stable this week, up about 0.67% as of Friday. In terms of market conditions, it focuses on market transaction and port inventory, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations and the crude oil trend under the expectation of OPEC production reduction. On the other hand, the long holiday in Europe and the United States is coming, and it is expected that the toluene market will continue its stable and volatile trend in the later period.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis by the Data Engineer of the business agency: the market atmosphere of TDI is low, all parties pay attention to the information of suppliers, offer cautiously, the downstream raw material inventory is abundant, the market intention is low, and the inquiry and purchase are weak. It is expected that the TDI market will be narrowed and the factory information will be focused.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (December 17): 533.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic sulfur market is stable in the middle and down, and the atmosphere in the market is light. Sinopec’s quotation in East China has been stable, with the mainstream price of solid sulfur at 520-660 yuan / ton and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur at 470-630 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur at 490-530 yuan / ton and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur at 470-510 yuan / ton in North China; the mainstream price of solid sulfur at 540 yuan / ton and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur at 460-540 yuan / ton in Shandong /Tons.

At present, the port inventory is still high, consumption is slow, the atmosphere of on-site negotiation is cold, a small number of transactions, and the market performance is quiet. The downstream sulfuric acid market is in weak operation. At present, the main acid plant is under maintenance, with lower start-up, tepid demand, weak purchase intention and short-term or wait-and-see operation. The demand for phosphate fertilizer is weak, and the downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing and keep a wait-and-see attitude.

Future market forecast: at present, the domestic sulfur market continues to be weak, the port inventory consumption is slow, the contradiction between supply and demand is still the same, the atmosphere of on-site negotiation is cold, the industry is mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and it is expected that the sulfur market will be weak and stable in the later stage.

After a three-month low period in the ammonium chloride market, Zui has finally ushered in signs of improvement. The downstream demand has been gradually released. In addition, the rebound of urea has also brought power to the ammonium chloride market. The market of ammonium chloride has stopped falling and stabilized. Some enterprises have begun to limit orders. Prices in some regions have risen slightly, with a range of around 30 yuan / ton.

Overall, the domestic ammonium chloride market is still mixed with good and bad. In terms of starting, the starting rate of domestic ammonium chloride industry is around 80%. Some enterprises in East China have shut down their facilities, while those in Central China and southwest China have started at a high level. Some enterprises are full load production, and there is no indication that there will be a maintenance plan in a short period of time. Therefore, the starting rate of combined alkali enterprises will remain at a high level.

In terms of demand, in recent years, the shipment volume of ammonium chloride enterprises has increased significantly, the start-up of compound fertilizer manufacturers is gradually recovering, the winter storage market has started, the market trading atmosphere has improved significantly, and some enterprises are limited to receive orders, mainly in advance. In the later stage, with the release of downstream demand, the market of ammonium chloride will be gradually improved and developed.

From the export point of view, after the price of domestic ammonium chloride fell sharply, the export volume grew rapidly, the export volume increased 131.41% month on month, the export situation was good, to some extent, it distributed the pressure of overcapacity in the domestic market, which was conducive to the stability of the domestic market price.

On the other hand, the market situation of soda ash market is weak, the domestic market is oversupplied, and the manufacturers’ double ton cost pressure is large, so the enterprises have a strong attitude of pricing.

Generally speaking, with the promotion of winter storage market and gradual release of downstream demand, the trend of ammonium chloride enterprises is relatively stable, but it is relatively difficult to increase the price by a large margin. In the short term, the price in some areas may rise by a small margin. In the later stage, it is necessary to focus on the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers and the parking and maintenance of the combined alkali unit.

I. price trend

On December 15, the average price of propane (Shandong) market was 4195 yuan / ton, and on December 16, the average price was 4850 yuan / ton, up 15.61% in the day, up 2.65% compared with the same period last year. Propane market ushered in the “sprint” market at the end of the year.

II. Market situation

Compared with 2018, the propane market is generally flat this year. Even in the “golden nine silver ten” of the traditional sales season, the trend of the propane market is slightly weaker. From September, in addition to the rise driven by the “attack on Saudi Arabia”, the trend in the later period is relatively flat, mainly with small shocks. But near the end of the year, propane market has made a new breakthrough, sprint to the highest point of the year.

The domestic propane market is the most representative in Shandong Province. Most refineries in Shandong Province increased by 300-800 yuan / ton this time, which completely changed the situation of continuous “tepid” propane Market. The main influencing factor of the increase was driven by the sharp increase in intake. At present, the shortage of international spot resources, the increasing cost and the decrease of propane flowing into China have led to the wide rise of domestic port price, which has led to the sharp rise of refining price. Downstream “buy up do not buy down” mentality, into the market is more active, manufacturers shipping smoothly, inventory without pressure. At present, the price of most refineries is close to 5000 yuan, and some manufacturers have broken through.

Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

III. future forecast

Propane analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the overall inventory of the terminal is low, and the supply of goods is relatively tight. In addition, the intake and high international market prices support the market mentality, and the enthusiasm of the downstream is still there. The propane market is expected to rise in the short term.

I. price data

As of December 13, the average ex factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 6263.33 yuan / ton, 0.79% lower than 6313.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was about 6300 yuan / ton.

On December 13, the naphtha commodity index was 77.30, unchanged from yesterday, 24.67% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 102.62 (2012-09-24), and 83.00% higher than the lowest point, 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of refined naphtha fell slightly this week, and trading was basically stable.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States was $59.20/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $59.18/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 0.03%; Brent crude oil was $64.39/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $64.20/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 0.30%. The results of OPEC production reduction meeting exceeded the market expectation, which was good for the oil market, EIA inventory data was completely negative, and the international crude oil market was in high volatility. Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic toluene market is stable this week, up about 0.67% as of Friday, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 5650-5700 yuan / ton. This week, the trend of isomerized xylene was stable, and the turnover shrank slightly. As of Friday, it rose about 0.43%. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 6000 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic PX price trend is stable, and the market price is about 6700 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three commodities are petroleum coke (1.49%), fuel oil (0.66%) and liquefied gas (0.59%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are MTBE (- 3.90%), LNG (- 3.03%) and methanol (- 1.51%). This week’s average was – 0.52%.

III. future forecast

According to energy analysts of business club, this week’s naphtha refining fell slightly, suppliers resisted high price supply, the market was full of wait-and-see sentiment, and just needed to purchase. It is expected that the price of naphtha refining and hydrogenation will be stable as a whole in the near future, with an average price range of 6200-6400 yuan / ton.

With the rapid economic growth, China has become the world’s largest polypropylene (PP) market. According to the public data, there will be 9.51 million tons of new domestic PP capacity in 2019-2020, and it is estimated that the domestic PP capacity will reach 45 million tons by 2025. At present, the terminal demand growth of general material market can not keep up with the speed of new production capacity, and the domestic PP general material market has entered the era of overall surplus.

In contrast, domestic high-end PP special materials still rely heavily on imports. Driven by consumption upgrading, domestic demand for high-end PP continues to grow, and there is still a large gap between supply and demand. It is estimated that China’s PP import dependency will reach 19% in 2019. Therefore, high-end PP special materials with high added value and high import dependence have become a new growth point in the domestic market.

In order to solve the pain point of market demand, Jinmin new materials, together with Xiamen University and downstream customers, successfully developed a new functional environmental friendly flame retardant PP special material after more than one year through the coordination of industry, University, research and upstream and downstream industries. The product has passed UL (USA), SGS and other authoritative tests, all technical indicators meet the relevant standards, mechanical and mechanical properties are excellent, the fire-retardant level reaches UL94 V-0, and the performance is superior to similar products at home and abroad.

According to the research and Development Engineer of Jinmin new material, the research and development of this special material has achieved breakthroughs in three aspects: first, a reactive phosphorus nitrogen flame retardant has been developed, through in-situ grafting modification with PP, the dual effects of flame retardancy and compatibilization have been achieved; second, the synergistic flame retardancy, smoke suppression and improvement of carbon layer structure have been realized by using phosphorus nitrogen silicon internal hybrid technology, giving PP Flame Retardancy function; Third, independent R & D equipment, with in-situ reaction, uniform dispersion and other functions, with corresponding auxiliary machines, to achieve stable and efficient production.

The project’s patent licensing results support the engineer’s claim. At present, the project has been granted 6 national invention patents, 3 utility model patents and 1 design. The project has completed the whole process of “basic research, application development, patent protection, promotion and application”, which is of positive significance to promote the technical progress of high-end PP resin special materials in China and replace the import.

Technological breakthrough is more directly reflected in product performance. Jinmin new functional environmental friendly flame retardant PP special material overcomes the problems of poor low-temperature impact resistance, easy aging, flammability, large amount of molten drops and so on, and improves the flame retardant performance of the product. At the same time, through the aging resistance modification and crystal control of flame-retardant PP, the service life of flame-retardant PP material in long-term harsh environment is prolonged, the surface gloss of flame-retardant PP is improved, and the application field of flame-retardant PP products is expanded.

At present, Jinmin new functional environment-friendly flame-retardant PP special material has achieved mass production, providing services to nearly 100 customers in the automotive, electronic, electrical, kitchen and bathroom industries. In addition, Jinmin new material has developed anti-bacterial and flame-retardant PP intelligent toilet special material, low odor PP car material, functional enhanced PP irrigation equipment special material, low shrinkage modified PP and other products in response to the market demand of PP special material, which has been widely recognized by downstream customers.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, zinc prices were adjusted in December, and the zinc market recovered. As of December 13, the spot price of zinc was 18726.67 yuan / ton, up 1.41% from 18466.67 yuan / ton on December 1, down 13.68% year on year.

II. Market trend analysis

LME futures market zinc price fell in shock

It can be seen from the spot zinc price chart of LME that zinc price has fallen sharply in recent years, and the international market is short of zinc price, which has affected the domestic zinc market. Since December, the price of zinc in LME market has been fluctuating and stable, and the negative effect on domestic zinc price has weakened, but the overall recovery of domestic zinc market is still dragged down.

Zinc price in Shanghai futures market rose in December

From the zinc price of Shanghai futures market, it can be seen that since December, the domestic futures market has recovered and the futures zinc price has risen in shock, which is good for the spot market.

III. future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with business club, thinks that the main reason for the rise of zinc price in domestic futures market is that China’s economy shows signs of recovery in November. In the spot market, with the recovery of the economy, the demand for zinc has increased, which is good for zinc price. However, the rise of zinc price in the spot market is still struggling. Under the condition of the recovery of demand and the temporary stability of supply, the performance of the spot zinc price is not ideal. The reason is that the price of zinc in China is largely affected by the price of zinc in the international market, while the price of zinc in the international market continues to fall, which has a great negative impact on the domestic zinc market. Generally speaking, the recovery of domestic macro-economic environment is bound to lead to the rise of zinc price, but the fall of international zinc price will drag down the rise of zinc price. The fall of international zinc price is not enough to change the rise and fall of China’s zinc market. The spot zinc price is expected to rise in the future, but the increase is limited due to the impact of international zinc price.

I. price trend of acrylic acid:

According to a large number of data on the list of business agencies, the acrylic acid market this week rose steadily. As of December 13, the average price of acrylic acid was 8100 yuan / ton, up 1.25% compared with the beginning of the week. In a three-month cycle, it rose 0.41% year-on-year. On the 13th, the main price of acrylic acid in China was 7200-9300 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: acrylic acid market is stable and rising this week. The starting load of acrylic acid plant has not been recovered, the spot supply is limited, the downstream demand is light, the purchase is just needed, and the market participation is cautious. As of the 13th, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been temporarily stable, with 7200 yuan / ton of common acid and 7800 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single and practical way. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua Chemical Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has remained stable, with main supply contracts and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7700 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week (12.9-12.13), the market in Shandong area of propylene in the upper reaches rose slightly, or 0.11%. At present, the inventory of downstream enterprises is low, the purchasing mentality is slightly improved, the downward trend of propylene price begins to stop, and the crude oil market is relatively ideal. It is expected that the propylene market price may recover in recent days.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

3. Future forecast:

Acrylic analysts of the business club believe that the price of upstream propylene is rising slightly, which has limited support for acrylic cost. The spot supply of acrylic acid is limited, but the demand in the downstream market is weak. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will maintain stable operation in the short term, and the negotiation is relatively stale.

I. price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite continues to run at the bottom this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week is 1760.00 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week is 1760.00 yuan / ton, up or down 0.

II. Market analysis

Products: in December, the domestic sodium metabisulfite price continued to be weak at the bottom. This week, the market performance of sodium metabisulfite is still tepid. The market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is in the range of 1680-1900 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are concentrated around 1800 yuan / ton. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, with limited new orders. The market transaction atmosphere is general, and fast in and fast out is the main support. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily excluded from the scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industrial chain: as of December 13, the upstream soda ash fell by 4.1% in the month, and the sulfur fell by 5.5% in the month. The raw material cost continued to be weak and adjusted. The downstream trade subjects had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the cost and demand continued to be weak and suppressed. The domestic sodium metabisulfite market price recovered and came under pressure.

III. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that raw material cost continues to be weak, and the main body of trade is cautious in purchasing and selling. In the short term, domestic sodium metabisulfite will continue to follow the raw material price to explore the bottom.

In the blink of an eye, there is not much left in 2019. Looking back on this year’s market trend of diammonium, it can be said that the market trend of diammonium is high and low. Take Heilongjiang as an example, in the same period last year, 64% of the price of diammonium arriving in Heilongjiang was 3000 yuan (ton price, the same below), while the price of 64% of high-end diammonium arriving in advance is only 2500 yuan, a drop of about 500 yuan. In the winter storage market, diammonium enterprises and downstream distributors are caught in a tug of war, so why does the diammonium market become this year?

First of all, the fertilizer market environment is poor. Although the settlement price of diammonium is relatively high this spring, the sales volume in Northeast China is relatively poor, and there are many leftovers. The downstream dealers make less profits when selling diammonium, and some dealers even lose money. In addition, the urea price fluctuates frequently this year, the start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises is slow, the overall environment of fertilizer market is slow to warm up, the downstream dealers’ confidence in stock is naturally insufficient, and the market naturally presents a stalemate state.

Secondly, the support of low operating cost of raw material price is weakened. At present, the sulfur port stock is at a high level of more than 2.6 million tons, and the highest port stock in previous years is only about 1.7 million tons. The granular sulfur in the Yangtze River port has been as low as about 500 yuan, but there are still sulfur coming to the port in the near future. In addition, the purchase of ammonium phosphate enterprises is carried out on a quarterly basis, so the sulfur price is difficult to rise in the short term. The lack of cost support makes the firm price not enough. In order to relieve their own pressure, individual factories frequently offer low prices and the market quotation is chaotic.

Finally, exports are weak. The biggest difference between this year’s diammonium market and last year’s is the weak export. Last year, the price of diammonium was high in the world, India and Pakistan had better demand, 64% of diammonium was more than US $400 FOB, and some enterprises in Hubei even gave up the domestic autumn market with low price in order to seize the international market, which made the social inventory relatively low when the winter storage started last year, which provided a precondition for the start of high winter storage in the later period. However, the international market of diammonium is in a mess this year, and the international price is falling all the way. At present, the FOB price of 64% of diammonium in China has been as low as US $295-300. According to the customs data, China exported 5.3419 million tons of diammonium from January to October, which is nearly 90000 tons less than the 6.21 million tons of the same period last year. This price pattern makes most domestic enterprises lack of export enthusiasm, and only a few large factories slightly walk away. Most factories began to focus on the domestic market, the supply pressure increased, coupled with more social inventory this year, the price of winter storage is naturally not high, and downstream dealers are reluctant to purchase in order to avoid risks, so the market is now in a stalemate state.

To sum up, the price of diammonium in winter this year has dropped by about 500 yuan compared with the same period last year. The downstream market is dominated by cautious psychology, and most dealers dare not take the goods rashly. The overall environment of the fertilizer market is poor, the supply continues to be excessive, the raw material price is low and consolidated, the international market demand is weak, many negative factors dominate the market of diammonium in 2019, which is so bleak, and the downstream dealers mostly adopt the minimum guarantee policy to alleviate the operation pressure.