1. Trade name: silicon metal (441#)

2. Latest price (2020.02.20): 12325 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11800-12000 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 12000-12100 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 12100-12200 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12900-13000 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 12400-12500 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 12400-12500 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

On the domestic side, the logistics has not been fully recovered, the supply of goods is generally tight, the price of the goods holders is firm, most of the manufacturers in Yunnan, Fujian, Hunan and other production areas who produce the corresponding specifications are in the early stage of production suspension, and the factory and social inventory are low.

On the foreign side, there is a strong demand in foreign countries, with a large amount of reserve consumption in the early stage and a low level of inventory. At present, there is a strong demand for replenishment of inventory. Several large-scale foreign aluminum alloy enterprises have started a new round of bidding. Recently, foreign bidding orders have been released, especially some high-grade special specification orders.

4. Future forecast: it is predicted that the short-term operation of metallic silicon will be mainly strong.

Recently, the price of rare earth in China has increased significantly. Since the middle of February, the price of heavy rare earth in China has increased by 9.4%. Supported by the market price of heavy rare earth in China, the market price of light rare earth has increased accordingly. The price trend of some rare earth products in China is as follows:

In recent years, the market price of heavy rare earth in China has risen sharply, with a rise of 9.4% in February. As of the 20th day, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.785 million yuan / ton, with a rise of 5.0%; the price of dysprosium metal was 2.325 million yuan / ton, with a rise of 9.41%; the market price of some light rare earth in China has also risen, with a rise of 362500 yuan / ton as of the 20th day, with a rise of 1.26%; the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 286500 yuan / ton, 2 The monthly increase was 2.69%. In recent years, the domestic price of heavy rare earth has increased substantially, and the market price of light rare earth has increased correspondingly. Affected by favorable national policies, the domestic rare earth market has improved.

On February 19, the rare earth index was 343 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 65.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and up 26.57% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the price of rare earth in the rare earth market has risen sharply. In recent years, Myanmar has unilaterally banned the export of rare earth, which has led to a sharp decline in the import volume of domestic heavy rare earth. In addition, the south is a serious epidemic area, and rare earth Enterprises in the South have not fully resumed their work, the supply of domestic heavy rare earth has decreased, the contradiction between the supply and demand of domestic heavy rare earth is sharp, and the market price of heavy rare earth has risen sharply. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has rebounded, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth in the near future is general, and the market price has not increased much. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Affected by the epidemic, transportation is limited to some extent, and the price trend of some rare earth products remains stable.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection in China will not be reduced, and the import of heavy rare earth in China will be blocked, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also rise slightly.

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in China is stable for the time being. As of February 20, the price of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic method is 5750 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has stopped falling and stabilized, the demand of plasticizer industry has improved, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is stable for the time being.

In the near future, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable. Affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation of chemicals is limited, and some phthalic anhydride manufacturers are still in stock. However, with the gradual resumption of downstream enterprises, the shipment situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers has recovered, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is stable. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China is temporarily stable, the downstream factories are back to work orderly, and the inventory pressure of the factories has decreased, but the high-end transactions are blocked, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is volatile. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 5500-6000 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method source is 5400-5700 yuan / ton; in North China, the main quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 5400-5800 yuan / ton, the price trend of most manufacturers in the field is stable temporarily, and the downstream construction is improved, but the main purchase is on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is under normal operation, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, Phthalic anhydride market is mainly stable.

In the near future, on February 20, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream products was 5800 yuan / ton. The import price of phthalic anhydride in the port area fell and the price fell. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port fell and the price of phthalic acid in the external market fell. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Due to the stable trend of upstream raw material phthalic acid price, the market price of phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable.

In the downstream, the price of DOP raw material isooctanol decreased, the cost of DOP raw material decreased, DOP enterprises operated at low load, during the anti epidemic period, logistics was limited, transportation was difficult, and DOP manufacturers’ inventory increased. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fell, and the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level. The main quotation in DOP market is about 7100-7500 yuan / ton, a small amount of market plasticizer is traded, the low price trend in the downstream is fluctuating, and the upstream ox price remains fluctuating. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain fluctuating trend in the later period.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Association)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the melamine market was stable on February 18. According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the mainstream price of melamine market in China was around 5200-5400 yuan / ton on the 18th, which was the same as that on the 17th. In a half year cycle, it fell 4.30% year on year. On February 18, the melamine commodity index was 63.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-18), and up 11.99% from the lowest point of 56.97 on February 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now) at present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5400 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: on February 17, according to the monitoring of the business association, the market of liquid ammonia in China was slightly lower than that at the end of last week, most of which were lower than that at the end of last week. Some enterprises in the northern region were slightly lower, but the range was not large, at 50-100 yuan / ton. On February 17, the main factory price of small particle urea in Shandong increased slightly.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of melamine in the business association believe that the price of liquid ammonia is slightly lower and the price of urea is slightly higher, which has limited impact on melamine. At present, logistics and transportation are still limited, terminal demand recovery is delayed, and enterprise inventory is under pressure. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be weak and wait-and-see.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide:

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product source: business and social commodity analysis system)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the market of propylene oxide was stable on February 18. The factory actively digested the inventory, some main factories shut down and reduced the load, the purchasing power of downstream polyether for propylene oxide was fair, and the terminal demand was slowly recovering. According to the data of the business club’s large list, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises as of the 18th day was 8666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday. It fell 12.16% in three months and 18.62% in half a year. On the 18th, cash delivery price of Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 8800 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 8500-8600 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is around 8400-8500 yuan / ton, and that in South China is around 8300-8500 yuan / ton. On the 18th, the main quotation of propylene oxide market was around 8600-8800 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on February 18, the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong continued to rise. At present, the market turnover is about 6000-6500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6000-6000 yuan / ton. There are still many units in the upstream to be shut down for maintenance, and the propylene output is relatively small. However, the terminal manufacturers have started to return to work one after another, the logistics and transportation have also recovered, and the demand for propylene has increased slightly, so it is expected that the market price of propylene will still be increased in recent days.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analyst of the business club, the price of raw propylene has rebounded in the near future, with some support on the cost side. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by stalemate finishing and operation, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance on the burden raising of early maintenance plants and logistics and transportation.

According to the world energy news on February 17, a study shows that more than 60% of the oil and gas discovered in 2019 came from offshore areas, a significant increase compared with previous years.

According to the global data report, Colombia and Norway found the most oil reserves in 2019, while Guyana, Mauritania and Russia had the most important oil discoveries. In Guyana, ExxonMobil drilled five new discoveries in the deep-water starbrook block. After drilling a new well (uaru-1) in January 2020, the company has increased the estimated total recoverable resources of the block to more than 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Tullow also contributed to the country’s success in 2019, drilling Jethro (deep water) and Joe (shallow water) wells in the stabrook block.

“The discovery of Guyana in 2019 is based on the success of previous years, some of which have been put into production,” said Toya Latham, an oil and gas analyst at global data. Previously, in December 2019, Liza phase I development project, as the country’s first large-scale oil project, was put into operation, and completed the development less than five years after its discovery. The region has also recently achieved greater success, with total reporting the discovery of significant oil in block 58, which is located in Suriname and adjacent to the stabruk block. ”

Natural gas has been found in Mauritania and Russia. In November 2019, BP announced the success of its deepwater orca-1 well in Mauritania. The well is targeted at the orca exploration area, where the initial average gas reserves are estimated to be 13 trillion cubic feet. In early May 2019, Gazprom also confirmed that its total reserves of two wells (dinkov and nyameskoye) drilled in the Kara Sea continental shelf are estimated to be 1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Latham added: “the orca-1 well in the northern part of block C8 complements the recent successful drilling activities in the area and supports BP’s plan to build the area into a regional LNG center. The company has approved the first phase of a cross-border greater tortueahmeyim development project in the south of the block, and the latest findings in the north of the block will help support any expansion plans in the bir Allah area. ”

On February 14, the reporter learned from the national energy administration that at present, the overall situation of energy supply and demand in China is stable, and the supply of electricity, coal, refined oil, natural gas and other key areas in Hubei Province is stable.

As of February 13, there are 996 coal mines in production in China, with a recovery rate of 63.8%; the coal inventory of the national unified dispatching power plant is available for 24 days, at a reasonable level; the overall operation of Hubei power grid is stable, and the main power generation factors are sufficient.

Epidemic situation is order, prevention and control is responsibility. Since the outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia, the national energy board has implemented the energy supply protection to tackle the epidemic as the primary task at present, guiding and supervising the resumption of energy production and energy production, carrying out daily scheduling analysis, actively carrying out the link between production and transportation needs, studying and solving major problems in a timely manner, and making every effort to ensure the energy conservation of the epidemic prevention and control and the normal operation of the economy and society. The national energy system takes the responsibility of being responsible for local affairs, and providing solid energy guarantee for winning the prevention and control of epidemic.

The head of the National Energy Administration said that at present, the situation of coal mine resumption affected by the epidemic situation has been effectively changed. The coal production in all regions has been growing steadily, and the supply and demand of electric coal are basically stable, providing a strong basis for energy security for the prevention and control of the epidemic.

As of February 13, there were 996 coal mines in production with a capacity of 2.65 billion tons / year, an increase of 138% and 64.2% respectively compared with February 1; the coal mine capacity recovery rate was 63.8%, an increase of 24.9 percentage points compared with February 1; the production on that day was 6.47 million tons, an increase of 56% compared with February 1.

At present, the national power system operates stably, the power supply is generally abundant, and the power production safety is normal.

As of February 13, the coal inventory of the national unified dispatching power plant has been available for 24 days, which is at a reasonable level; among them, Hubei has been available for 41 days, which is at a high level. There is sufficient supply of oil and gas resources in China. Affected by the epidemic situation in Hubei Province, in the first ten days of February, the consumption of refined oil and natural gas decreased year on year, the situation of supply and demand was generally relaxed, and the supply of oil and gas was fully guaranteed. The natural gas pipeline of huoshenshan hospital and leishenshan hospital has been successfully supplied.

There are six factors that will affect the Asia Pacific natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) market in 2020, wood McKenzie, a consultancy, said in a recent report.

Asian LNG spot prices fell further

In 2019, the global LNG market relies heavily on Europe to absorb the excess supply. LNG production from projects in the United States and Australia has surged, and LNG demand in the Asia Pacific region has stagnated. Spot LNG can only be sold to Europe at a discount price.

Robert Smith, director of research at wood Mackenzie, said: “Europe will be asked again in 2020 to save this situation. However, unlike 2019, European gas inventories reached record levels early this year. As a result, Europe will rely more on flexible supply or increased demand in the power sector than it did last year. Both show that gas prices will be lower in 2020 and spot prices in Asia will also fall. However, if tensions between the United States and Iraq escalate in 2020, leading to the disruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, there will be risks in the supply of LNG from Qatar. “.

Market liberalization and lower LNG spot price

Malaysia and Thailand have finally liberalized their natural gas markets. Last year, Malaysia imported a batch of LNG spot from shell, breaking the monopoly position of Petronas for the first time. With the successful entry of third-party companies into the country’s market, TNB’s Procurement Department expects to seek more goods this year.

EGAT recently imported the first LNG cargo. This is the first test of third-party access control after the market is monopolized by PTT.

In South Korea, new energy and industrial consumers are also seeking to bypass kogas to import natural gas independently.

ASLA, chief analyst at wood Mackenzie, said, “the low spot price of LNG provides a reason for emerging buyers to buy. Whether Petronas Malaysia, Petronas Thailand or Korean natural gas companies, they have a series of relatively high price long-term supply contracts. The ability to purchase LNG from the spot market will provide additional profits for end users and improve their competitiveness in the market. After several spot transactions, these new buyers and LNG suppliers will be confident in the commercial operation ability of LNG purchase “.

Declining demand for natural gas and LNG in China

In 2019, the growth rate of China’s natural gas demand dropped to 9% from 17% in 2018. The slowdown has affected overall energy demand.

“With the operation of the Siberian power pipeline and the first batch of natural gas from Russia to northern China, LNG demand is likely to decline in winter 2020,” said Huang miaolu, senior manager of wood McKenzie. In addition, China’s natural gas production is still growing at a faster rate than in previous years. If this situation continues in 2020, the growth rate of natural gas import will slow down. “.

Although China’s coal to gas process slows down in 2019, natural gas still accounts for a higher share in the energy structure, surpassing coal and oil.

Northeast Asia’s resistance to coal

More and more air quality problems have prompted North East Asian markets such as South Korea to adopt new energy policies to reduce coal power generation.

“The fall in coal use last spring shows that South Korea has had some success in reducing seasonal emissions,” said Lucy Cullen, an analyst at wood Mackenzie. Early reports also showed that South Korea’s carbon emissions fell in December last year. If the winter coal limitation measures in 2020 continue to have a positive impact and avoid power outage, then seasonal coal limitation is likely to become the norm in Northeast Asia and benefit LNG. At present, the Northeast Asian energy market does not support large-scale coal to gas policy. However, in the next few months, we will pay close attention to whether the combination of carbon emissions and sustained low prices can provide impetus for a larger coal to gas policy in 2020. “.

Southeast Asia will launch policies to support natural gas

In 2020, several policy documents that may shake the natural gas market in Southeast Asia will be released. Natural gas is expected to play a more prominent role in the start-up of the master plans for the electricity and gas markets in Thailand and Vietnam. This will provide key strategic signals to market participants in the region.

Vietnam will increase its gas power generation capacity in the medium term, which will increase the share of natural gas in Vietnam’s power structure. It is expected that in 2020, many integrated gas-fired power generation projects will occupy a place in the forthcoming power development plan.

India regasification receiving terminal put into operation delayed

New regasification capacity is crucial for India to take advantage of low spot prices. However, India’s regasification development project has a history of delays, mainly due to the difficulty in completing the connection with the grid, thus limiting the capacity to a lower level.

Analysts said that Mundra and Jaigarh are the trial operation targets of this year’s regasification project. Two receiving terminals were originally planned to be put into operation in 2019, but have been delayed for various reasons. Another major new capacity project is the expansion of dahej receiving terminal. It is planned to increase the capacity by 2.5 million tons per year, which will be completed in 2020.

Nigeria’s oil production is likely to decline by 35% in the next 10 years, wood McKenzie, a consultancy, told Reuters on Thursday, as regulatory uncertainty and costs under the downturn in oil prices could prompt oil majors to postpone their final investment decisions on the three deepwater projects.

Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa. According to the monthly report released by OPEC this week, the daily output of Nigeria in January 2020 was 1.776 million barrels. Combined with the production of condensate, Nigeria’s total oil production exceeded 2 million barrels / day.

However, according to a study shared by wood Mackenzie with Reuters ahead of Friday’s publication, the start dates of three deepwater projects off the coast of Nigeria, operated by oil giants ExxonMobil, shell and total, are likely to be delayed by two to four years until the end of 2020.

According to wood Mackenzie, the regulatory reform of Nigeria’s oil industry, as well as the oil bill, which is still to be finally approved after 20 years of delay and debate, has played a deterrent role in the investment decisions of oil giants.

In addition, the consulting firm pointed out that the three deep-water projects are not profitable in terms of current oil prices when the Brent crude oil price is lower than $60 / barrel, and the three projects may increase the output of Nigeria by 300000 barrels / day.

Australia is the only country in the Oceania region to increase oil and gas production by 2020, according to oil and gas news on February 15.

According to global data, a leading data analysis company, the country covers all final investment decisions in the coming year, with 71% of projects already under construction. By 2020, with more than half of the FIDS associated with liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, Australia appears to remain the largest exporter of LNG. 2019 is the first year that the country’s LNG export volume exceeds Qatar’s in a continuous year.

Joseph wisdom, an upstream oil and gas analyst at global data, commented: “it is particularly noteworthy that the final investment decision of the two projects, Scarborough and Barossa, is expected to produce a total of about 10 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas. However, there are also smaller projects that want to take advantage of the country’s LNG situation. Jacobs will be the country’s second flng project, hoping to take advantage of the region’s idle natural gas assets. ”

In Oceania, some key projects launched in 2020 include Blackwatch, haselgrove and sole, all located in Australia, and Maui redevelopment project and supplejack in New Zealand.

In the sole project, the first batch of natural gas was delayed in the fourth quarter of 2019 due to delays in the completion of the natural gas plant in obost, Victoria, and the threat of bushfires to the plant. Recoverable reserves are estimated at 232 billion cubic feet (BCF). The development includes a single vertical offshore well connected by pipeline to the obost gas plant.

As for FID, the key projects in Oceania to reach FID in 2020 include Scarborough, Barossa, Jacobs and cruise, all located in Australia.