The methanol units overhauled in Shaanxi, Gansu and Inner Mongolia have been fully restarted at the beginning of this week. In addition, the methanol units restarted after the completion of technological transformation in Northern Shaanxi now have considerable supply capacity again. This is also the reason why the price in Northwest China fell this week.
Affected by the positive factors such as the rapid decline of port area inventory, the decrease of inland supply and the improvement of downstream demand, methanol futures have rebounded in the near future, and the spot market has also risen at the same time. Among them, the spot price in East China rose to 1990 yuan / ton, 80 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of last month, and the main futures contract rose to near 2010 yuan / ton in 2001, 80 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of last month.
Steady growth in mainland demand
In the early stage, several sets of methanol units were overhauled in the inland areas, including 6 sets of 4 million tons of units in Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, which resulted in a shortage of supply in the northwest. At the same time, the southwest natural gas methanol plant was overhauled in advance unexpectedly last week, and 3 new 1.6 million tons of methanol units were shut down. The balance of supply and demand in inland areas has been broken rapidly, and the market is in short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term state of supply and demand.
The downstream demand in the mainland is relatively strong. In addition to the stable traditional downstream demand, the 300000 ton / year methanol to olefin unit in the west of Shandong Province was successfully commissioned last week. At the same time when the export of methanol was stopped, the daily purchase volume was 300-400 tons. The market demand in Shandong Province increased rapidly, driving the overall price higher.
Rapid decline of port inventory
In the early stage, the port area has maintained a normal inventory of 1.2-1.3 million tons. However, last week, the port area’s inventory dropped by a large margin of 150000 tons. In addition, the previous weeks’ inventory dropped. At present, the port area’s inventory has dropped to a reasonable level near 900000 tons.
On the one hand, due to the recent closure of the Yangtze River fog, part of the cargo unloading is slow; on the other hand, due to the rapid reduction of supply in the northwest and southwest regions, and the low spot price in the port area, the backflow window from the port to the mainland has been opened, and the inland Shandong, Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei regions have started to accept imported methanol, resulting in the port area inventory There was a rapid drop.
Abundant supply in later period
Through careful analysis, it can be found that the current methanol market is in a good state, which is difficult to continue. First of all, the natural gas to methanol plant in Southwest China will be limited for about one month this year, and the early shutdown means the end of maintenance and start-up in advance, which will severely suppress the methanol market in January next year. Secondly, the methanol units overhauled in Shaanxi, Gansu and Inner Mongolia have been fully restarted at the beginning of this week. In addition, the methanol units restarted after the completion of technological transformation in Northern Shaanxi now have considerable supply capacity again. This is also the reason why the price in Northwest China fell this week.
In the port area, the closure caused by heavy fog and other weather factors has been gradually lifted in the near future, and the ships with demurrage in the early stage have begun to unload gradually. According to incomplete statistics, there are about 150000 tons of methanol in the port area. After the fast unloading of these methanol, the inventory in the port area will have a surge process.
In terms of downstream demand, the recent haze in the north is serious, and a new round of environmental protection and production restriction has begun. In December, the formaldehyde operating rate will gradually decline, and the methanol demand will decline is an indisputable fact.
Winter is a stable period for the start-up of methanol plant in North China. Unless there is an accident, the possibility of maintenance in winter is low. Inland methanol plant will always maintain a high start-up and relatively stable supply. However, the downstream demand for methanol in coastal areas will be significantly weakened, and the traditional downstream start-up will be reduced. Some methanol to olefin units will also be overhauled in December. Under the premise of no reduction in the import to port volume, the supply pressure in the port area is not optimistic. It is worth mentioning that, despite the decline of inventory in the port area, the tradable inventory is still maintained at more than 300000 tons, indicating that the supply is still abundant.
To sum up, in the early stage, due to the superposition of unexpected factors, the market may be temporarily prosperous or come to an end. At present, the methanol 2001 contract is close to delivery, and the set holding position is larger than that in the same period of previous years, indicating that the market is still bearish.