Magnesium market trend

On June 15, 2020, the ex factory cash tax price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas was basically stable. At present, the mainstream quotation range is 13050-13400 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

According to the follow-up information of the business agency, the ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 13050-13200 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 13150-13250 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 13200-13400 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 13050-13200 yuan / ton.

 
According to the data of the business agency, the average price in the domestic market on the 15th was 13183 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.25% compared with the average price of 13216.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of June (6.1).

Stable operation for half a month

Since the middle of April, the price of magnesium has fallen to the lowest level in three years, and the willingness of some manufacturers to stop production and repair has increased. On the one hand, the trading in the export market is weak, the price is running at a low level, and the pressure on the operation cost of manufacturers is large; on the other hand, the supply and demand in the domestic market is relatively stable, affected by the cost factors, the manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold the price, and the market game tends to be stable.

Since June, the market of magnesium ingots has been running steadily, and it has not been able to walk out of the “V” shape running up trend of nonferrous plate since April, which is mainly based on two factors:

1. In recent years, the price trend of magnesium ingot is good and relatively high;

2. The export proportion of magnesium ingots is relatively large, and the external environment has a relatively large impact on the price of magnesium ingots.

Future forecast

The downstream demand is weak. At present, the price of magnesium ingot is low, and the weather is gradually turning hot. It is expected that some factories will be shut down for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply end will have some advantages in magnesium price. However, based on the current weak demand, it is expected that the stable operation will be dominated in the near future, and the later stage will pay attention to the change of downstream market purchase rhythm.

1、 Trend analysis

On June 15, spot copper offered 46891.67 yuan / ton, up 0.13% from the previous trading day, down 4.37% from the beginning of the year, up 0.94% year on year. LME copper three-month contract pressure shocks weakened, Asian market closed at $5689.5, down 1.56%. Shanghai copper’s main contract opened quickly and fell 1.20% to close at 46280 yuan.

2、 Market analysis

The national copper Council of Chile forecasts that global copper demand will drop 417000 tons in 2020 and 537000 tons next year. According to statistics, by the end of the year, about 27.5% of the world’s copper mines will be affected, of which Peru, Chile and Panama will be the most affected. At present, most of the overseas mines have resumed production, the price difference between refined and waste is expanding, the decline of inventory is slowing down, the demand side is likely to turn weak seasonally, and the resistance factor of copper price is gradually showing. However, the resumption of production and work in Europe and the United States is still continuing, and the supply side is still difficult to make a big change, supporting the copper price.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business cooperatives believe that the favorable factors of copper price are weakened, the supply is increased, and the demand is weakened. It is expected that the copper price will be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide:

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises as of June 11 was 9800 yuan / ton, up 9.70% compared with June 1 (8933.33 yuan / ton) and 9.29% compared with May 11.

Market review: according to the price monitoring data of the business agency, on June 1, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 8933.33 yuan / ton, on June 2, the price of some enterprises was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, supported by the increase of raw material price and new single increment in the downstream, on June 3, the price of propylene oxide stopped falling and started to rise, on June 4, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9100 yuan / ton, with strong cost support, no pressure on factory inventory, and downstream The price of raw propylene increased to 9166.67 yuan / ton on the 5th, after the weekend, the market of raw propylene declined slightly on the 8th, but some propylene oxide manufacturers decreased their load, the supply in the field decreased, and the price increased to 9400 yuan / ton in fear of rising downstream. On the 9th, the raw propylene continued to decline slightly, but the supply side supported the manufacturer’s market mentality, and the price rose to 9600 yuan / ton on the 10th The raw material propylene market has declined significantly, but due to the overall supply reduction, the manufacturer has no pressure support, and the price continues to rise to 9700 yuan / ton. The downstream follow-up is average. The raw material propylene price continued to decline on November 11, but there is no inventory pressure in the propylene oxide plant. With the support of planned maintenance of some subsequent units, the price rose again to 9800 yuan / ton. The downstream is in conflict with the high price raw materials Hope to strengthen the mentality.

Raw materials: as of June 11, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. Last month, Shandong propylene prices fell after shocks, and began to rise at the end of the month. On the first day, the price of propylene continued the upward trend on Sunday, with a slight increase of about 50 yuan / ton. On the second day, the price was raised again by about 100 yuan / ton. On the third day, it continued to rise by 100 yuan / ton. On the fourth day, it rose slightly by 50 yuan / ton. On the fifth to the seventh day, it remained stable. On the eighth day, the price of individual enterprises fell slightly. On the ninth day, the price generally fell by 50 yuan / ton. On the tenth day, it fell again by about 100 yuan / ton. Today, it is still down by 100 yuan / ton. Now, the market transactions reach 6550-6950 The main price is about 6600 yuan / ton. Propylene delivery is not smooth, a little inventory pressure.

Downstream: according to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 11, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in the mainstream area was around 11700 yuan / ton, up 4.78% compared with the price on June 1. As of June 11, the new single offer of downstream soft foam polyether kept up with the increase of raw material propylene oxide in a small margin, and the procurement enthusiasm in the downstream was general, and it was mainly cautious to wait and see.

3、 Future forecast:

Propylene oxide analysts believe that the recent weak operation of raw propylene, cost support weakened. At present, the overall supply of propylene oxide is reduced, and there is no inventory pressure for the time being. In addition, there are some maintenance plans for subsequent units, and manufacturers hold firm prices. However, with the price rising to a high level, there is resistance to high price raw materials in the downstream. The follow-up is general, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of propylene oxide will be mainly stagnant, finishing and operation, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material prices and factories Message guide for plant operation.

Under the pressure of cost, the market of bisphenol A has gone through a round of big rise, and began to stabilize in the middle of June. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market offer was 8800 yuan / ton on May 5, 12450 yuan / ton on June 9. After the May Day holiday, the market of bisphenol A has risen 41.48% in total, and 12366 yuan / ton on June 11, with a narrow correction. At present, the cost has both declined, and the weak cost has made the BPA, which was originally not optimistic in demand, turn down, and the factory has mostly suspended the offer.

From the cost point of view, the overall surge of phenol and acetone has been temporarily stopped and turned downward. Especially after two months of sharp rise of acetone, traders are eager to make shipment and offer lower obviously, which is mainly reflected in the 1000 yuan / ton decline of offer in the mainstream East China region. At present, the East China market talks are 11000-11300 yuan / ton, and the supply in other mainstream regions is still tight and stable as a whole. Another important raw material phenol, discussed in East China, decreased from 8000 yuan / ton in the past few days to 7800-7850 yuan / ton. Therefore, the theoretical cost range of BPA plant is (9756-9880) + 2000 = 11750-11880 yuan / ton, and most plants are near the profit and loss line.

In recent two months, bisphenol a market has risen sharply, especially acetone market, from 4000 yuan / ton to 12500 yuan / ton. In the middle of June, acetone turned downward, and the upward step of bisphenol a stopped abruptly. Although acetone only accounts for 0.27 per unit of bisphenol A in production, the popular acetone market still has a great impact on it. This week, the acetone market is stable and excessive. As a whole, the supply of acetone market is still tight Zhang, the operation rate of the plant has declined, and the port supply is not sufficient. It is expected that the overall acetone level will be stable or rebound in a narrow range next week. Another important raw material phenol, the market opened on June 8, the factory pushed up sharply, the market mentality was strongly supported, and the firm offer was up to 8000-8200 yuan / ton. However, the terminal market is not optimistic, and the demand side is low, which makes it difficult to push up. At present, the market negotiation is 7800 yuan / ton.

The downstream liquid epoxy resin and PC showed an upward trend, while the other downstream was not optimistic. The downstream liquid epoxy resin operates at a high level, the terminal wind power industry develops generally, and the enterprise’s operating rate operates stably as a whole. The mainstream negotiation of the epoxy resin market operates at a high level of 20000-20500 yuan / ton, and the short-term market remains stable. In terms of PC, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price rose from 12300 yuan / ton on May 8 to 14933 yuan / ton on June 10. On June 11, the market was stable, with a monthly increase of 23.4%. The current upward trend was suspended, and the terminal demand still needs to be paid attention to later.

According to the business community, although phenol is still in a downward trend and acetone is temporarily high and stable, the overall cost of raw materials is still strong, but the terminal is not optimistic and the downstream just needs to be purchased. On the other hand, the inventory pressure of bisphenol a plant is not great, and the mentality of large customers is acceptable, and the downstream wait-and-see is increasing. Under the supply-demand game, there are many merchants who make profits and sell. It is expected that the short-term market of bisphenol A will be mainly weak and stable, focusing on the change of the demand side of the terminal purchasers. The market quotation reference is 12000-12500 yuan / ton.

On June 11, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell sharply, with the settlement price of major contracts at $36.34/barrel, down $3.26 or 8.23%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at US $38.55/barrel or 7.62%, mainly due to the restart of epidemic demand concerns and the record high of US crude oil storage.

After the European and American countries restart the economic fast forward key, the demand for crude oil has rebounded, but the worry that the outbreak will give a second strike to crude oil is growing. On Thursday, U.S. stocks and commodity futures markets, represented by crude oil, tumbled, with worries dominating and risky assets selling again.

The latest phase of novel coronavirus pneumonia report released by who seems to be in a more intense trend. The report showed novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed novel coronavirus pneumonia cases in 128419 cases, and 5347 cases died. The most serious cases in the Americas region were 3485245 cases (70071 new cases) and 189544 deaths (3681 new cases). The total number of coronavirus infections in the United States exceeded 2 million on Wednesday, with new infections rising slightly after a five week decline. Although most states in the United States have cancelled or eased restrictions on activities, fuel consumption is still about 20% lower than normal due to the cautious attitude of consumers. At the same time, the Federal Reserve predicts that the unemployment rate in the United States will reach 9.3% by the end of 2020, which will take several years to fall, indicating that the real recovery of demand may take longer. If demand does not fully recover, US refiners and shippers may be hit again, and investment will be suspended for a long time. The whole crude oil production chain may be in a deeper crisis due to the problem of excess.

In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory reached a record high. Data released by the energy information administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by 5.7 million barrels to a record high of 538 million barrels in the week ending June 5. Before that, analysts had expected that crude oil inventory would decrease by about 1.01 million barrels, mainly due to the recent increase of crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia. This is also the rise of US crude oil inventory after the decline in May, especially the growth of oil products and consecutive weeks, which rekindled the market’s concern about future demand.

In the short term, the demand of oil market is still subject to the plague of the epidemic. Before that, governments relaxed the restrictions related to the epidemic and raised the optimism of the recovery of crude oil demand. At the same time, OPEC + extended the production reduction agreement, which also helped fuel the oil market, leading to soaring oil prices. WTI once broke the $40 mark, and the market selectively ignored the adverse factors that the epidemic was still uncontrolled. In addition, OPEC + is not monolithic. Although the record production reduction continued to July, in the long run, the market still faces the risk of oversupply. In particular, some OPEC countries, such as Iraq and Nigeria, fail to abide by the production reduction agreement. The negative production reduction of some countries may harm the cooperation of OPEC + production reduction alliance. In the view of the business community, the short-term oil price will continue to fluctuate broadly Situation, do not rule out the possibility that the oil price continues to callback, 40 US dollars is still a threshold for repeated exploration of crude oil.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11000 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week was 11016 yuan / ton, up 0.15%.

At present, the price of domestic activated carbon is slightly increased, and the ex factory price of East China coconut water purification activated carbon is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the downstream orders of domestic activated carbon market are cautious, some of them remain on the sidelines, and the firm offer is a single negotiation.

The cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upper reaches of activated carbon supports the demand, while the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the single order, the purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, the environmental protection policies boost the activated carbon market, and the performance of the activated carbon market is stable.

Forecast: the active carbon traders are mainly active in shipment, the downstream just need to purchase, and the firm offer focuses on negotiation.

The domestic market of cyclohexanone rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week was 6020 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the end of the week was 6587 yuan / ton, up 9.43% in the week. The price rose 13.16% month on month compared with the same period last year, down 16.26% compared with the same period last year.

The market for cyclohexanone rose sharply this week. In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene has been raised and listed for two times in a row within the week, ranging from 200 yuan / ton to 3700 yuan / ton, which is self raised in spot exchange, forming a stable and good support in terms of cost. From the perspective of demand, on June 8, Sinopec’s listing price of caprolactam this week was 10600 yuan / ton (liquid premium products were accepted and self delivered in June), which was increased by 400 yuan / ton. Luxi 100000 ton plant was shut down for maintenance and Lubao 10 Ten thousand tons of units were shut down for maintenance, the industry operating rate declined, the caprolactam spot supply was tight, the market rose and the profit was quite considerable. In order to enhance the caprolactam start-up and centralized external mining, the solvent market went with the market. In general, the downstream demand support was stable in the week. Recently, the chemical fiber orders are good, the supply and demand of cyclohexanone plant is relatively balanced, the starting load of the factory’s spot devices is relatively stable and the pressure is not large, coupled with a large number of downstream purchases this week, the market of cyclohexanone has risen sharply.

Raw materials, pure benzene: this week, the price of pure benzene in East China rose first and then fell. Crude oil rose strongly in the week, driving the price of us gold plate and domestic pure benzene up continuously. Due to the firm price of the external market, which is higher than Sinopec’s price, the industry expects that Sinopec’s pure benzene has room for upward adjustment. The subsequent arrival of goods in the East China port area is concentrated, and the pressure of picking up goods is great, and the current price is different from the spot price. The site pays attention to the restart process of the downstream Jiangsu Haili plant with long-term parking, and believes that it will provide support for the subsequent consumption of East China pure benzene inventory and promote the overall mentality of the site.

Caprolactam: this week’s market support power is sufficient. Last weekend, 100000 tons of units in Luxi, Shandong Province were shut down for maintenance, and Lubao caprolactam unit began to shut down for maintenance for one month, resulting in a decrease in caprolactam supply. The shortage of caprolactam in Jiangsu is obvious. However, at present, the market of PA6 chips in the downstream market is becoming weak, and the price of PA6 chips has dropped after surging high. The profit compression in polymerization also restricts the enthusiasm of caprolactam high price procurement.

Adipic acid: the cost pressure increases again, stimulating the adipic acid factory’s attitude towards the market. From June 10 to 11, the factory collective followed up the rise and listing, with Liaohua listed at 7200 yuan / ton, Shenma listed at 7300 yuan / ton, and the rest factories listed at 7100 yuan / ton. Considering the strong trend of raw materials and the market rhythm driven by factories, the middlemen in the spot market at the beginning of the week, supported by their willingness to make profits, were cautious when they were low and explored when they were high; however, the downstream demand performance was not good, and small orders were often needed to make up positions when they were low.

From the demand side, the spot supply of downstream caprolactam is tight, and the market for polymer chips is weak. It is expected that the demand for cyclohexanone procurement of caprolactam will decrease in the next week. From the supply side, Shandong Luxi oxidation process cyclohexanone is ready to restart in the near future, the spot supply is expected to grow, but the current factory spot pressure is not large, the business agency cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic market for cyclohexanone will be stable in the short term, with specific attention to the raw material price of pure benzene and the demand for chemical fiber.

1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the price of 50 grains in Hebei at the beginning of this week was 2725 yuan / ton, while the price at the weekend was 2675 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton. The prices of all regions are generally stable, and there is no big change in the potassium sulfate Market in Qinghai, and the factory is not very ideal to start. However, due to the limited flow in the near future, the factories still have some inventory; the manufacturer’s quotation is of little significance, and it is understood that 50% of the price sold by the agents in the market reaches 2200-2260 yuan / ton. However, it is understood that the delivery speed of ROK’s stock has increased in recent days, from one more train per day in the early stage to about two trains per day. Due to planned maintenance, the plant is expected to be shut down until September. At the average level of potassium sulfate demand, the operation rate of Mannheim method’s plant in Shandong dropped to 65%, while that in Hebei remained at 70%. The upstream potassium chloride market continued to decline, with low demand and relatively sufficient supply. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer for raw potassium decreased.

3、 Future forecast

The pressure of potassium sulphate itself is not great. If the price of potassium chloride reaches the bottom and stabilizes, the pressure of potassium sulphate will be further reduced. However, the supply of goods is sufficient and the profit space is large. Potassium sulphate analysts of business association think: in the short term, potassium sulphate market is mainly stable, and the probability of price rise is small.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, in June, butanone started to soar. As of June 12, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was around 8733 yuan / ton, which was 2000 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week (June 8), with an increase of 30.2% during the period. The price is 2533 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month (June 1), an increase of 40.64%.

In the first week of June, butanone market showed a steady upward trend

In June, with the sharp rise of crude oil market and the sharp rise of acetone market, the butanone market was strongly supported. Butanone market operators are in a good mood, and the downstream market is also replenished. The manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the market price keeps rising. As of June 5, the average ex factory reference price of butanone has increased to 6733 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton higher than that of the first day, with an increase of 8%, and 933 yuan / ton higher than that of the beginning of May, with an increase of 16%.

In the second week of June, butanone market rose by 30% after many factories closed

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the overall market of butanone was generally stable at the beginning of the week (June 8), and the market reference price was around 6500-7500 yuan / ton. Since September 9, many factories have been shut down for maintenance, and the decrease of market supply has brought certain benefits to the market. The manufacturer’s inventory is running at a low level. It is understood that the butanone market as a whole began to increase broadly from the 10th, but due to the market price chaos, some butanone factories chose to close the offer without reporting. After the quotation was resumed on the 12th, the average ex factory price of butanone has risen to about 8733 yuan / ton, and the price rose 2000 yuan / ton during the closing period, with an increase of 30.2%. Taking pear tree chemistry in Dongming, Shandong Province as an example, the ex factory price of butanone has increased from 6500 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of butanone in South China is around 8800 yuan / ton, which has increased by 1600 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The ex factory price of butanone in East China is around 8700 yuan / ton, which has increased by 1800 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The ex factory price of butanone in North China is around 8500 yuan / ton, which has been compared with last weekend Last weekend, it was up 2000 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply and demand, at the beginning of June, the butanone market rose steadily to this week’s sharp rise, and many factories were overhauled. At present, the supply of butanone is in short supply. Although the downstream construction started to improve, under the pressure of high offer of butanone, the weak demand appeared, the wait-and-see mood increased, the replenishment and stock up decreased, which has been mainly used with the purchase.

In terms of cost, with the rise of butanone price in the first week of June, the industry’s profit has been improved. In addition, after the sharp rise this week, the profit has reached a high point. However, at present, the actual volume is not large, and the demand is blocked under the high price.

Butanone acetone, which is similar to acetone in chemical properties, rose sharply, driving the butanone market upward

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on May 31, the acetone market in East China reported 9000 yuan / ton. On the first day of June, the market situation was still affected by various positive and negative aspects. More people were still skeptical about the breaking of acetone. As a result, the acetone rose by 10% in three days. Looking back on the history of nearly ten years, the market was once close to 10000 yuan in the fourth quarter of 2013 and breaking of 10000 yuan in 2011 。 On March 3, major domestic mainstream factories actively adjusted prices, and the market once again pushed up more than 10000 yuan. Sinopec North China (Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhongsha Tianjin) reported an increase of 400 yuan / ton for 9300 yuan / ton, Shanghai Gaoqiao and Sinopec Mitsui increased 450 yuan / ton for 9200 yuan / ton, Yangzhou Shiyou increased 300 yuan / ton for 9600 yuan / ton, Lihua yiweiyuan increased 400 yuan / ton for 9600 yuan / ton, Huizhou Zhongxin increased 1000 yuan / ton for 9800 yuan / ton. The market has reached a state where one product is hard to get. The price range is 9900-10500 yuan / ton. The goods holders are reluctant to sell. It is clear that there are few offer traders. There are still factories in the downstream who actively follow the inquiry for replenishment.

Later price continues to rise, difficult price or rational callback

It is understood that the recent surge in acetone is one of the main reasons for the wide rise in butanone, followed by the shortage of its own supply, and the current market inventory is at a low level. Some insiders said that after this surge, the downstream wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. Although the inventory is at a low level, the current market demand is seriously insufficient, and the supply-demand stalemate is revealed. The actual transaction has shown signs of loosening the interest. In the later stage, the price continues to rise difficultly, and the price may usher in a rational callback.

According to the data of business agency: on June 8, the weekly average price of domestic industrial grade formic acid was 1933.33 yuan / ton. As of June 12, the weekly average price of domestic industrial grade formic acid was 1883.33 yuan / ton, down 5.83%. This week, the formic acid market was mainly weak and stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole showed a weak trend of maintaining stability. After restrictions on foreign trade exports, due to sufficient inventory, most manufacturers cut prices, while dealers did not adjust the price trend because they were not subject to the problem of stacking goods. At present, the market demand for formic acid is average, and the devices are shipped normally. Price: this week, the price of industrial barreled water is generally around 2220 yuan / ton, and the factory price of main industrial purified water of formic acid is about 1600 yuan / ton. As of Friday (June 12), Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. has offered 1850 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. 1500 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou Sanan Chemical Co., Ltd. 1450 yuan / ton; Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. 1700 yuan / ton; Hangzhou Fengchang Trade Co., Ltd. 85% formic acid industrial barrel price 2300 yuan / ton.

The mainstream of the liquid ammonia Market of the upstream product of formic acid is stable, moderate and narrow adjustment, and the prices of some regions are slightly increased, so the market demand is acceptable. The domestic caustic soda market fluctuates in a narrow range. The ex factory price of some manufacturers is increased by 10-20 yuan / ton. The downstream is mostly purchased on demand. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later period. In the second half of the week, the market was basically stable, with general market demand. Upstream products have no good support for formic acid cost. The demand for formic acid in the downstream leather and pesticide industries is relatively stable and the sales situation is general.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data division of the business association, the domestic industrial grade formic acid market as a whole maintains a weak stability. The upstream products are in weak operation, the formic acid price has no good support, and the downstream demand is general. The formic acid market is expected to be slightly adjusted in the short term.