1、 Price trend
According to the data of business agency, the average price of liquefied natural gas on July 29 was 2463.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, increased by 0.82% compared with the beginning of the month, increased by 0.14% month on month, and decreased by 23.81% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In July, the domestic LNG market rose slightly, but the price was always hovering at a low level with limited fluctuation, and the way up was extremely difficult. At the beginning of the month, the price was running smoothly. Since the middle of the month, due to the high inventory of the liquid plant in the early stage, the manufacturer reduced the price to clear the warehouse, and the shipment was improved. At the same time, considering the cost, the enterprise adjusted the price according to the trend, but the increase was not large, and the price adjustment range was mostly within 50 yuan. After the rise, it faced the situation of callback, and the price was in a sticky state, with a dilemma. Near the end of the month, the market is relatively calm, affected by special events in Xinjiang, shipment pressure, price down. At present, the supply side is still in a relaxed state. In terms of early maintenance enterprises, Huanggang, Hubei Province, etc. shut down. The surrounding areas are supported by this favorable situation, and the prices rise. However, the demand in the off-season consumption is not high, and it is difficult to boost the market by suppressing part of the demand by superimposing the plum rain season in the south. In the short term, the trend of domestic LNG market tends to be stable and mainly fluctuates in a narrow range.
The following are some maintenance enterprises for reference:
Recovery plan for the change of plant capacity (10000 m3 / D)
Hubei Huanggang 500 was shut down on the 24th and the sales on the 26th, scheduled for 30-40 days of maintenance
Inner Mongolia Zhengtai Yida 300, shut down for maintenance on July 24, planned 10-15 days
Heilongjiang Sanju longpeng 18 July 20 to be closed
Shuntianda in Yangcheng, Shanxi Province – shut down on the 23rd and stop selling on the 24th for about 20 days
Shouyang, Shanxi Province: 50 July 28th to be closed
According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of July 29, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was about 2460 yuan / ton, that of Inner Mongolia was about 2470 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi was 2480 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi was 2490 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang was 3200 yuan / ton.
Enterprise capacity (10000 m3 / D) up and down from July 29 to July 1
Inner Mongolia Shitai 55 2430 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 30 yuan
Star energy 100 2460 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 10 yuan
Inner Mongolia Sentai 120 2520 yuan / ton 2470 yuan / ton 50 yuan
Zhongyuan green energy 300 2500 yuan / ton 2480 yuan / ton 20 yuan
Shengdazizhou: 1002480 yuan / ton—
Dazhou Huixin: 100 2750 yuan / ton: 2750 yuan / ton
Ningxia Hongxing 100 2580 yuan / ton 2500 yuan / ton 80 yuan
Qinshui Xinao — 2400 yuan / ton 2460 yuan / ton – 60 yuan
Xinjiang Qinghua ￥ 30 3200 / T ￥ 3700 / T-500
The downstream methanol market is in a narrow range. In the later stage, the port inventory will accumulate again, and the high inventory will continue to suppress the methanol price; in the early stage, some maintenance devices have been resumed and restarted, and the supply side is expected to increase in the near future; the inventory of some downstream enterprises is on the high side, and the downstream market is not able to catch up with the high price, and the overall transaction atmosphere becomes weak, so it is expected that the domestic methanol market may decline in the short term.
Liquid ammonia, domestic liquid ammonia Market Trend differentiation, some areas of the price downward range is larger, such as the main production area of Shandong prices fell significantly, Hebei region followed the Shandong market also downward. It is expected that with the resumption of production of some urea plants in the future market, the amount of ammonia in Shandong can be effectively controlled, and the price may stabilize and rebound. Other regions, such as Hebei, are also expected to rise. Affected by the balance of supply and demand, the price of liquid ammonia in Northeast and Northwest China is likely to maintain stability.
In the last ten days of July, the market situation of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. Although there is support from the printing mark, the support is weak, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.
Recently, the dichloromethane market in Shandong has been rising steadily. As of the 29th, the mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2230-2280 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of chloroform market is about 1950 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of dichloromethane market is limited, and the demand of downstream market is fair, but it is still flat in the long term, and it is expected to rise slightly in the short term. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is high and firm, which supports the price of methane chloride well; the overall purchasing demand of downstream market is flat, and the game between supply and demand is strong.
3、 Future forecast
LNG analysts from the business club believe that: the domestic LNG market rose as a whole in July. However, the rising space in the off-season consumption is limited, and the price is always hovering at a low level. In the short term, it is expected that the price will remain low and stable. With the maintenance plan of some liquid plants in the future market, the on-site supply will decrease, which may boost the market and usher in a wavelet upward trend.