According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market continued to decline in July, and the downstream weaving factories made proper replenishment, and the price rose slightly at the end of the month. At present, the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 5000-5200 yuan / ton, FDY (150D / 96F) is 5500-5650 yuan / ton, and DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 6300-6900 yuan / ton.
Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market in July, unit: yuan / ton
Products: July 1, 2020 to July 29, 2020
Month up / down year on year
Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5492 5080 – 7.51% – 36.21%
Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5590 5921 – 5.60% – 29.89%
Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 7101 6645 – 6.42% – 28.99%
Since the middle and late June, domestic polyester filament prices have been exploring. In July, the cash flow of most polyester filament varieties is in deficit. Taking poy150d / 48F as an example, the cash flow maintained at around 300 yuan / ton in the middle of June. After the end of June, the cash flow continued to narrow. In July, the cash flow was in a loss situation, with a loss of more than 400 yuan / ton by the end of the month. In summer, polyester filament demand is mostly off-season, and enterprise inventory will also reach the peak of the year. This year, affected by public health events, the inventory pressure of polyester filament enterprises continues to increase, and high inventory has become a common problem. At present, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 30-40 days. In terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 10-16 days, FDY inventory is around 21-27 days, and DTY inventory is about 29-39 days.
In the raw material market, oil prices are supported by the OPEC + crude oil production reduction agreement. However, the factors restricting the continued rise of crude oil are still the demand concerns. The crude oil price in July has significantly narrowed. As of July 28, the closing price of WTI main contract was 41.04 USD / barrel, up 3.06% compared with the beginning of the month. As of July 28, Asian PX (CFR China) closed at US $558 / T, up 3.14% from the beginning of the month. Recently, overseas units have come to an end and are being restarted gradually. The domestic start-up load is basically stable. At present, PX is still in a deficit state. With the recovery of plants, PX inventory has been significantly accumulated, and the domestic social inventory has reached a high level of 2.5 million tons. The domestic PTA Market weakened in July. As of July 29, the average market price was 3554 yuan / ton, down 1.47% compared with the beginning of the month, and 36.42% lower than that at the beginning of the month. The new unit was put into operation, the terminal demand was weak, the supply was increased, the inventory was high, the fundamentals were under negative pressure, the price fluctuated downward, the cost support and terminal demand were purchased on bargain at the end of the month, and the tail showed a slight recovery.
The double drop of domestic and foreign trade orders has further intensified the contradiction between supply and demand of textile raw materials such as polyester filament. Enterprises in downstream weaving and other fields are more and more willing to reduce production, reduce load and take holidays. At present, the startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has been reduced to around 55%, which is at a low level compared with the same period last year. Textile printing and dyeing enterprises have already replenished autumn and winter fabric raw materials in advance at the end of the second quarter. Since July, orders of enterprises have been out of stock, and the inventory level of cost and raw materials is on the high side. Some enterprises have reached the highest level in recent years. The willingness of enterprises to continue to prepare goods is not strong, and polyester filament enterprises are also facing the situation of shortage of orders. Recently, for example, the transaction volume of polyester fabrics in the traditional market of China Light and textile city has declined, the transaction volume of imitation silk fabrics with polyester filament as the main raw material in summer has decreased sharply, and the transaction volume of medium and thick fabrics in autumn is still relatively limited, and the price is stable and slightly down.
At the end of the textile and clothing market, public health events at home and abroad are still fermenting, and residents’ demand for clothing, home textiles and other non necessities continues to decline. It is understood that in June, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear were 105.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear were 512 billion yuan, with a decrease of 19.6% over the same period. In terms of export, driven by the significant increase in the export of related anti epidemic materials such as masks and protective clothing, China’s textile and clothing exports achieved the first year-on-year positive growth in this year. According to China’s customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s textile and clothing cumulative export volume is 125.188 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.16%, of which the cumulative export of textiles is 74.103.3 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 27.81%. Textile and garment orders at home and abroad are decreasing day by day, and the export of China’s clothing products continues to decline. According to the customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s accumulated clothing exports amounted to US $51.084 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.39%, still continuing the downward trend, accounting for 40.8% of the total textile and clothing exports in the same period.
In the early days of xiaweiting, the textile industry was faced with low stock and low stock, which led to the increasing demand of textile enterprises. At present, some polyester filament enterprises have certain expectations of production reduction, but they have not announced the specific implementation time and the scale of production reduction and load reduction, and most enterprises are still waiting and waiting. At present, the rumors of polyester filament enterprises to reduce the load are gradually increasing in the industry, so it is necessary to pay attention to the situation of enterprises’ production reduction and load reduction. In addition, raw material PTA start-up and inventory are maintained at a high level, and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to improve under the background of off-season terminal, and the cost side support is limited. However, in the middle and late August, PTA plant maintenance increases and the terminal textile market ushers in the recovery of orders, and the inventory pressure may be reduced, which will boost the market to a certain extent. Therefore, it is expected that the polyester filament market is likely to fluctuate downward in August, but the possibility of recovery in the middle and late ten days is not ruled out.