1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 15650 yuan / ton last Thursday and 15875 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price rose by 1.44% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market is upward. The spot sales in the market are basically normal. The price in Yunnan is rising rapidly. The price in Sichuan has also increased. The price in Guizhou is relatively stable. Traders are more cautious in taking goods and mainly purchase on demand in the downstream. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan Province is about 16000 yuan / ton; that in Sichuan Province is about 15800 yuan / ton; in Guizhou Province, it is about 15700 yuan / ton. In November, the electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan were increased, and the production costs of yellow phosphorus enterprises increased. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises have successively raised their quotations.

In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, on October 14, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in domestic mainstream areas was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was increased by 10 yuan / ton or 2.65% compared with October 1; compared with September 1, the average price was increased by 6.67 yuan / ton, or 1.76%. This week, most of China’s phosphate ore refineries raised the ex factory price of phosphate rock, mainly in Guizhou and Hebei, with an overall increase of 20 yuan / ton in Guizhou. At present, the quoted price of 30% grade phosphate ore is 300-350 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is around 290-330 yuan / ton; the overall increase range of Hebei Province is 10 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation reference of 30% grade phosphate ore is 450-550 yuan / ton. At present, after the high-end quotation of phosphate ore market, the trading is fair, and the procurement is mainly required.

In terms of coke, up to now, the price of coke is mainly stable. At present, the main production areas start higher, the inventory in the factory is relatively small, and the downstream replenishment demand is high, and most of them are on demand. The market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2180 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day and increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month. The mainstream price of Liupanshui coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2100 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, and increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

In terms of demand, the sales of phosphoric acid are normal in various parts of the market this week, and the price has not changed significantly. Phosphate Market Spot tight, prices rose slightly. There are some favorable factors for the demand of yellow phosphorus.

3、 Future forecast

Chemical branch of the business club yellow phosphorus analysts believe that the price of yellow phosphorus this week. Next month, the electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan will be increased, the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase, and the price of raw phosphorus ore will be increased. It has formed a good support for the yellow phosphorus enterprises. Forecast: the price of yellow phosphorus will increase slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 15, the average price of domestic power lithium iron phosphate was 37000.00 yuan / ton. The market supply and demand were balanced, and the rise and fall were in a dilemma. The price of dynamic lithium iron phosphate was stable, and the price remained stable. The market was mainly stable.

The market price range of lithium iron phosphate power is 33000-37000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 35000 yuan / ton. The price is stable, the demand is general, and the overall market purchasing atmosphere is dull. At present, the price range of energy storage lithium iron phosphate is 28000-29000 yuan / ton, with an average price of about 28750 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of power type lithium iron phosphate enterprises is 37000 yuan / ton of Guangdong Optical Technology Co., Ltd., and Foshan City German side Nano Technology Co., Ltd. is 37000 yuan / ton, and beiteri new energy materials Co., Ltd. is 37000 yuan / ton.

The overall operation of upstream lithium carbonate is stable. At present, the mainstream price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 33500-37000 yuan / ton, with a slight increase. The mainstream price range of battery grade lithium carbonate is 39500-40500 yuan / ton, and the price remains stable.

The chemical index on October 15 was 757 points, up 3 points compared with yesterday, 25.49% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 26.59% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business Club lithium iron phosphate analysts believe: lithium iron phosphate market prices remain stable in the short term, just need to purchase. (the above prices are provided by major lithium iron phosphate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business lithium iron phosphate analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the statistics of the business agency, as of October 15, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was reported at 15100 yuan / ton, up 2.26% compared with October 1, and 16.27% lower than that on October 1; the price of nylon POY was 12740 yuan / ton, 1.59% higher than that on October 1, and 18.75% lower than that on October 1; the price of nylon FDY was 15850 yuan / ton, 1.60% higher than that on October 1 and 19.54% lower than that on October 1.

In the early ten days of October, the international crude oil price rose sharply and fell slightly. As of October 14, WTI crude oil price was 41.04 USD / barrel, up 5.99% from the beginning of October. International oil prices rebounded sharply, while cyclohexanone rose. Shandong cyclohexanone market offer 5750-5850 yuan / ton, East China cyclohexanone offer price 6000-6100 yuan / ton, the market trading atmosphere is light. Sinopec’s settlement price of caprolactam in September 2020 is 9700 yuan / T. The supply of caprolactam increased in September. Due to the oversupply, the inventory pressure increased and the overall price was weak. The downstream transaction atmosphere is warming, polyester staple fiber two consecutive trading limits boost market confidence, short-term caprolactam is expected to rise. As of October 15, PA6 rose by 4.79% in October.

Recently, many foreign textile export enterprises can not guarantee delivery due to the epidemic situation, and many orders are transferred to China for production, and nylon manufacturers are booming. Textile market turn, nylon filament transaction hot. Some enterprises said that they couldn’t help themselves and the market was turning rapidly. The old customers may have difficulties in delivery and are unable to receive orders from new customers. The prices have risen and risen again. The contracts are subject to the quotation of the same day. It seems that the industry has really entered the “Silver decade” season in the short term. However, the impact of the transfer of orders to China is limited. After all, the prospect of trade environment under the epidemic situation is unknown. Therefore, some enterprises have not made major adjustments and are in a wait-and-see situation.

Business agency analysts believe that in the half of the “silver 10″ quarter, nylon filament in the raw material boost, as well as orders to warm up, the end of September’s decline. However, from the perspective of the overall price adjustment strategy, the price increase range is 200-500 yuan / ton, and the pace is still relatively conservative. Although the enterprise has stated that it is imperative to increase the price, there is no lack of the flavor of guaranteed price promotion, which is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Trade name: fuel oil 180CST

Latest price (October 14, 2020): 3587.50 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on October 14, the price of fuel oil was 3587.50 yuan / ton, and the market was weak and stable. On the one hand, cost is mainly negative. The international crude oil price fluctuates in a narrow range around $40 / barrel, which weakens the support for fuel oil. It is understood that WTI crude oil closed at $40.18/barrel on November 13. On the other hand, the demand is still low in the short term, and the epidemic situation of Xinguan in foreign countries is becoming more and more serious. Fuel inventory has increased, and supply side pressure is high. It is understood that, as of October 7, Singapore’s residual fuel oil inventory, including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, increased by 190000 barrels to 24.237 million barrels, light distillate stocks including naphtha, gasoline and reformate oil increased by 215000 barrels to 13.781 million barrels, and medium distillate stocks decreased by 433000 barrels to 14.835 million barrels.

Aftermarket forecast: the fuel market is expected to continue the weak atmosphere in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 14, the ex factory transaction price of domestic propylene glycol was 9333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 167 yuan / ton, or 1.82%. Compared with 9 and 1, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 1533 yuan / ton, or 19.66%.

After the festival, the raw materials continued to be high, propylene glycol pressure was adjusted narrowly, and the overall small range was upward

After the festival, the domestic propylene glycol market has been adjusted in a narrow range with both high and low adjustments, and the overall upward trend is the majority. This trend mainly comes from two aspects. On the one hand, due to the cost pressure given by the continuous rise of raw material propylene oxide, propylene glycol market is difficult to get down, and the price is passively pushed up. The offer of many factories is still high or pressure is up, with an increase range of 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, the high-end transaction price of propylene glycol refers to 9800 yuan / ton.

On the other hand, after the festival, the propylene glycol plant started normally, and the inventory was abundant. Downstream users only kept purchasing on a just need basis. They were strongly resistant to high prices. Under the deadlock between supply and demand, some factories and dealers went down slightly, with a downward range of 200 yuan / ton. At present, the low-end transaction price of propylene glycol refers to 9000 yuan / ton.

As of October 14, the ex factory transaction price of domestic propylene glycol was 9333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 167 yuan / ton, or 1.82%. Compared with 9 and 1, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 1533 yuan / ton, or 19.66%.

The production capacity and operation of propylene glycol in some domestic enterprises are attached (data for reference only)

Factory’s production capacity (10000 / T) process remarks

Normal operation of Shida Shenghua 12.5 transesterification process unit

Normal operation of Haike Xinyuan 6 transesterification process unit

Normal operation of 5.5 transesterification process unit of wells chemical

Normal operation of Depp chemical 4.8 transesterification process unit

Internationally, China’s crude oil imports continued to grow, coupled with the continued decline of the US dollar, international oil prices rebounded. On Tuesday (October 13), WTI November 2020 futures rose $0.77 at $40.20 a barrel, while Brent’s December 2020 futures rose $0.73 to $42.45 a barrel. The main contract of China’s SC crude oil futures fell 3.3 yuan / barrel to 272.2 yuan / barrel in 2012.

It is difficult to ignore short-term weak operation due to insufficient demand

At present, the cost of propylene glycol is obviously inverted, and the demand is weak. In addition, the export is affected by the exchange rate, freight and domestic price. The foreign trade sales are average and the performance is flat. The overall sales pressure of the market is not reduced. Therefore, it is expected that the price of propylene glycol will be weak and narrow in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 14, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in domestic mainstream areas was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 2.65%, compared with October 1; compared with September 1, the average price was increased by 6.67 yuan / ton, or 1.76%.

Domestic phosphate rock market rose after double festival

In October, after the double festival, domestic phosphate ore started to resume gradually, and the trading was stable. It was heard that some mining enterprises might raise their quotation, and the new orders were sold at sporadic high prices, and the market was mainly on the wait-and-see manner. Up to the 14th, most of the domestic mines raised the ex factory price of phosphate rock, mainly in Guizhou and Hebei. The overall increase in Guizhou was 20 yuan / ton, and the reference for 30% grade phosphate ore was 300-350 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was around 290-330 yuan / ton. The overall increase in Hebei Province was 10 yuan / ton, and the reference of 30% grade phosphate ore factory quotation was 4 50-550 yuan / ton. At present, after the high-end quotation of phosphate ore market, the trading is fair, and the procurement is mainly required.

On the downstream side, the overall price of yellow phosphorus market rose slightly after the festival. Most of the new orders in the market were small orders, and some prices increased slightly. At present, the reference price of Yunnan Net phosphorus factory transaction was around 15300-15500 yuan / T, and a small number of high price orders were referred to 15600 yuan / ton. The phosphoric acid market is mainly stable for the time being, and the recent market demand is not obvious.

Continue to be weak in action and maintain stability in the short term

In the short term, there is limited space for the phosphate ore market to continue to rise. On the one hand, the current mine operation has not been fully recovered, and the limited supply has given support to the enterprise’s price rise. After the full recovery of the future market operation, the phosphate rock price continues to go up, with insufficient power and no strong support from the market. Therefore, the short-term market upward range is limited and stability is mainly maintained.

1、 Price trend of formic acid

(Figure: P value curve of formic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market is mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises have been raised. According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, as of October 14, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises was 2066.67 yuan / T, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, and increased by 13.76% compared with September 1. It is reported that the formic acid plant of Shandong ASDE Technology Co., Ltd. has started to operate 200000 tons of formic acid plant for its own use of formamide and calcium formate; the operating load of Nanjing BASF is about 80%. At present, the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2000 yuan / ton, and that of Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. is 2300 yuan / T. the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

For the upstream caustic soda, on October 13, the price of caustic soda in Shandong was relatively strong. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda was 450-530 yuan / ton. October is the traditional peak season, and the demand side of caustic soda has certain support. At the same time, October is also the maintenance peak period, so the supply side may tighten. It is estimated that the short-term caustic soda price may be stronger; the upstream liquid ammonia market will be stable in the near future (10.9-10.13); the upstream sulfuric acid market will rise slightly in Shandong Province in the near future (10.9-10.13), and the upstream sulfur market will rise slightly in the near future with good cost support, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, the supply of sulfuric acid is normal, and the factory price of sulfuric acid in the future market will fluctuate slightly As of October 14, the average price quoted by enterprises was 1902.50 yuan / ton, up 5.99% compared with October 1.

Downstream potassium formate, calcium formate, pharmaceutical industry demand is stable, downstream epoxy soybean oil industry started low load operation, downstream leather and pesticide industry started to steadily improve.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on October 13, 2020, there were 20 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities that increased were polymerized MDI (5.40%), formaldehyde (37%) (3.28%) and sulfur (2.30%). There were 6 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were crude benzene (- 1.00%), ethylene glycol (- 0.87%) and aluminum fluoride (- 0.75%). The average rise and fall was 0.29%.

3、 Future forecast

Formic acid analysts of the business community believe that the raw material prices are stable and strong in the near future, the cost support is fair, and the follow-up of new downstream orders is stable. It is expected that in the short term, the industrial grade formic acid market will be stable and good operation, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1016.67 yuan / ton on December 12, and 1050.00 yuan / ton on the 13th, an increase of 3.28%. The current price is up 8.25% month on month, and the current price is 19.20% lower than last year.

Recently, the domestic market price of formaldehyde has remained stable. As of October 13, the mainstream factory quotation in Central China is about 916 yuan / ton, that of North China is 830 yuan / ton, and that of East China is 1033 yuan / ton. Linyi Yinhe formaldehyde production capacity is 120000 tons / year, and the formaldehyde plant is normal, with a daily output of 200 tons. Recently, the formaldehyde plant in Shandong Province has been in normal operation. The trading atmosphere in the market was better than that in the earlier period, the actual transaction was ok, and the formaldehyde market rose.

The situation of upstream methanol: the quotation of methanol market in southern Shandong Province increased by 20-50 yuan / ton to 1850-1870 yuan / ton, and Linyi received the quotation of 1850 yuan / ton of local goods and delivered them to the place without tax. There is no quotation for logistics goods. The regional supply of goods is reduced, and the enterprise mentality is strong. The main factors of the price rise are the favorable futures driven, and the favorable impact of the recovery of downstream demand. In the short term, the positive factors will still remain for a period of time, traders are full of bullish mentality. Strong cost support, formaldehyde market rose.

In the near future, the overall demand for timber in the downstream is flat, and the commencement is not obviously better, and the support from the demand side is limited. Just need to maintain the atmosphere of purchase and delivery.

In recent days, the upstream raw material methanol continued to rise, and the formaldehyde market rose with the strong cost. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency predicted that the formaldehyde price in Shandong Province would be higher in the near future.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

In recent years, the melamine market is mainly stable, with little change. Compared with the previous day, the average price of melamine rose by 13.0% as of January, compared with that of January. The melamine commodity index on October 12 was 60.22, flat with yesterday, down 39.78% from 100.00 (2011-09-18), and 10.54% higher than the lowest point of 54.48 on July 26, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

At present, some of the devices are stopped for maintenance, and the enterprises mainly execute the orders in the early stage, the performance of the demand side is general, the market has no obvious change, and the operators mainly wait and see. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 5500 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is around 4700 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 5300 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is about 5200 yuan / ton.

For upstream urea, on October 13, the urea market in the East was temporarily stable, and the recent high consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia resulted in better cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts from the business agency believe that the current upstream urea price is temporarily stable, the cost support is fair, and the overall performance of the market is average. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to the start-up situation of enterprises.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 13, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6400 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol was increased by 66 yuan / ton, or 1.05%; compared with September 1, the average price was increased by 700 yuan / ton, or 12.28%.

N-butanol market rose strongly in September driven by multiple positive factors

Since September, the domestic n-butanol market has begun to rise steadily. The high price of propylene gives support to the cost of n-butanol. The downstream replenishment of n-butanol was stable, the market trading atmosphere was good, and the transaction focus continued to rise. As of September 25, the average ex factory price of n-butanol was 6333 yuan / ton, which was increased by 633 yuan / ton or 11.11% compared with September 1. Then, at the end of the month, the n-butanol market was supported by the stock preparation before the festival, the market trend was high and stable, and the downstream procurement was active. Until the end of September, the overall market was stable and stable.

October market continued to be good, n-butanol market stable upward

In October, some domestic n-butanol manufacturers continued to increase the ex factory price of n-butanol by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, in terms of cost, the raw material propylene started stable operation at the beginning of the month, and the high-level support was given to n-butanol, and the cost pressure of n-butanol was still under pressure. In terms of supply, some factories were shut down for maintenance in September, and the operating rate was around seven floors. In terms of demand, at present, the downstream just needs replenishment, and the trading atmosphere is good. As of October 13, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6400 yuan / ton, which was increased by 66 yuan / ton or 1.05% compared with October 1; compared with September 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 700 yuan / ton, or 12.28%.

The market price of n-butanol in some parts of China is attached (data for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

Product Name: up and down in 10 / 1-10 / 13

N-butanol in East China 6400 6500 + 100

South China 6500 6600 + 100

North China 6300 6400 + 100

Upstream, after the festival, the domestic propylene market price has basically stabilized. As of October 3, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to be stable. According to the price chart of the business agency, since October 1, the price of propylene has remained stable on the whole, and the prices of some enterprises have risen slightly. On Monday, most of the prices have remained stable, and some enterprises have risen slightly. At present, the market transaction is still stable between 7500 yuan / ton and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7500 yuan / ton. Recently, some propylene plants have been shut down unexpectedly, and the overall supply is a little tight.

Tight spot, smooth conduction, n-butanol may continue to rise

At present, the spot price of n-butanol market is tight, the conduction is smooth, the downstream demand is normal, and the atmosphere is good. Therefore, it is expected that the market will rise again in the short term, and the market will continue to rise.