According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (10.12-10.16), with the price at 9070.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 9340.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, an overall increase of 2.98%.

This week, the ex factory price of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber and petrochemical manufacturers was raised. As of October 16, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene of PetroChina Northeast sales company was implemented at 9400 yuan / ton. This week, the operating rate of domestic petrochemical cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant increased compared with that at the end of September. According to the business agency, Shandong Wanda polybutadiene rubber plant has been restarted during the National Day holiday, with normal operation of Yangzi, Lande, Qixiang, Qilu and other cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants of Xinjiang Lande fine Petrochemical Co., Ltd., with a daily output of about 140 tons; and Shandong Wanda Co., Ltd The company’s 50000 T / a high CIS polybutadiene rubber plant was shut down for maintenance from 9.30 to 10.6 days. At present, it has resumed normal operation after restart, with a daily output of around 100 tons. The supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased slightly this week.

The price of raw materials rebounded, and the cost was supported by cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. As of October 16, the butadiene price was 6863 yuan / ton, up 7.86% from 6363 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, according to the monitoring of the business agency.

The start-up of downstream tire market continued to rise slightly, and the start-up of all steel tire and semi steel tire remained above 70%, and there was rigid demand for rubber.

Aftermarket forecast: business agency analysts believe that at present, the price of raw material butadiene rebounded to a certain high level, and the downstream demand has certain support, it is expected that the price of cis-1,4-butadiene rubber will continue to be high in the short term.

Xinfengming announced today (October 19) that with the joint efforts of all employees of the company, through the early stages of equipment installation, single machine commissioning, linkage commissioning, cold commissioning, hot commissioning and material commissioning, phase II of Dushan energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary, has put into operation a green intelligent PTA project with an annual output of 2.2 million tons. The PTA phase I plant with an annual output of 2.2 million tons has been put into operation on October 30, 2019.

This is a major measure for xinfengming to extend the industrial chain upstream, complete PTA self-sufficiency, further reduce the cost of main business, and enhance the comprehensive strength of the company. Also further enhance the company’s profitability, competitiveness and anti risk capabilities, improve the comprehensive utilization of resources, consolidate the company’s competitive advantage of polyester filament products.

According to the statistics of the business agency, the domestic PTA capacity increased rapidly from 2010 to 2014, while the period from 2015 to 2016 experienced a period of de capacity and entered a stable period. It is estimated that PTA will usher in a new round of production capacity release cycle from 2020 to 2022. By the end of 2022, PTA has a total capacity release plan of 29.3 million tons. The new capacity mainly comes from the raw material matching of downstream leading enterprises and the expansion of PTA’s main suppliers. The era of PTA’s high boom will come to an end.

Statistics of domestic PTA new capacity in 2020 (unit: 10000 tons)

Change of annual production capacity of enterprise name

Zhongtai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. 120 to be discharged on January 1, 2020

Hengli Dalian 250: 1.25 million tons of lines will be discharged on January 14, 2020, and the other 1.25 million tons of lines will be put into operation on January 18

2.5 million tons of lines will be put into operation on June 28, 2020, and products will be produced on June 29, 2020, and another 1.25 million tons will be put into production on July 10

Dushan energy 220 will be put into operation on October 19, 2020

Fujian Baihong 250 is planned to be put into operation in October 2020

Sinopec 330 is planned to be put into operation near the end of 2020

2020 is the peak of PTA production, and the production capacity has increased significantly. Since this year, 6.2 million tons of units have been put into the market, including 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai chemical, 2.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical phase 4 and 2.5 million tons of phase 5 of Hengli petrochemical. In addition to the 2.2 million tons of Dushan energy put into production today, the domestic PTA production capacity has reached 61.055 million tons. It is estimated that Fujian Baihong 2.5 million ton unit will be put into operation in October in the fourth quarter, and the 3.3 million ton unit of Sinopec is planned to be put into operation near the end of the year. If the unit is put into operation smoothly, the production capacity may reach 66.855 million tons by then, which will greatly increase the domestic PTA supply pressure, and the pattern of excess supply is still severe, which will bring pressure on the market price. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of October 19, 2020, the average price of PTA spot market in China was 3442 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 31.67%.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that in the near future, the demand for downstream terminals is picking up and PTA devices are undergoing large-scale maintenance, and PTA prices are facing a wave of upward trend. However, the new production capacity feeding has a certain impact on the market. In addition, the production and sales of polyester in the downstream have fallen down as a whole. Only relying on the high production and sales of polyester staple fiber can not boost the market. It is expected that PTA market will continue to rise, with insufficient power.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on October 15, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 2900 yuan / ton, up 10.27% compared with that before the festival (8 days), 23.23% month on month, and 22.67% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Since the return of the double festival, the domestic LNG market continued to rise, and the strong market continued to this week, with a 7-day continuous rise of 10.27%, with a strong upward momentum. Since April 15, northern cities have entered the winter heating period, regional urban fuel storage has been opened, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang and other places have been fully opened up, the price has been increased by 100-250 yuan / ton, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the price of the terminal has also increased by about 50-200 yuan / ton. Domestic gas and air intake have risen hand in hand to meet the arrival of the traditional peak season.

On October 10, the benchmark price of feed gas in Northwest China was raised to 1.28 yuan / m3, and the increase in cost boosted the market atmosphere. At present, the on-site supply is relatively abundant, the start-up of the liquid plant is stable, a few enterprises have maintenance plans, and the overall operating rate is slightly increased. The downstream demand improved, the city fuel replenishment was positive, the vehicle demand increased, the gas station sales were good, the industrial demand was improved, the demand side was strong, the business attitude was optimistic, and the driving mood was not reduced.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 15, the average price in Inner Mongolia is around 2910 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; in Shaanxi, the average price is around 2880 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Shanxi, the average price is around 2970 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Xinjiang, the average price is around 3270 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Ningxia, the average price is around 2980 yuan / ton, the price is rising, and the average price in Sichuan is 2660 yuan Around yuan / ton, the price is temporarily stable, and the prices of many places are rising as a whole.

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from October 15 to October 9

Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 2900 yuan / ton: 2650 yuan / ton: 250 yuan

Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 2860 yuan / ton 2770 yuan / ton 90 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai: 1.2 million cubic meters / day: 2920 yuan / ton: 2650 yuan / ton: 270 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy: 3 million cubic meters / day, 2940 yuan / ton, 2700 yuan / ton, 240 yuan

Shengdazizhou: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2900 yuan / ton: 2810 yuan / ton: 90

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2580 yuan / ton: 2580 yuan / ton

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 3000 yuan / ton 2780 yuan / ton 220 yuan

Qinshui Xinao — 2950 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton 250 yuan

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million cubic meters / day 2750 yuan / ton 2500 yuan / ton 250 yuan

Most downstream products show an upward trend

Methanol, domestic methanol market rose, some manufacturers continued to increase the ex factory quotation, in which Shandong, Anhui and Fujian regions showed a significant rise. The main factors of this price rise are the favorable futures, the maintenance of equipment in some regions, the low inventory, and the favorable influence of the recovery of downstream demand. In the short term, the positive factors will still remain for a period of time, traders are full of bullish mentality. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply. 9 daily offer: 1660-1700 yuan / ton

The market price of dichloromethane and methane chloride in Shandong Province is temporarily stable. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2720-2750 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of chloroform market is about 1850 yuan / ton. At present, the market is mainly adjusted by fluctuation. The trading situation of the industry is acceptable. The spot supply of the market is stable. The upstream liquid chlorine market is high, which supports the price of methane chloride. The downstream market is overall purchased The demand is flat and the market support is general.

Ethylene, current crude oil: driven by the favorable stock market, the implementation rate of OPEC production reduction is commendable, and compensation production reduction is still implemented to lock in the rise of oil price. Driven by cost support, so business agency data analysts expect that ethylene external price will rise next.

 
3、 Future forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the overall market mentality is good, the peak season is coming, the market demand is increasing, combined with the cost rise and other positive factors, it is expected that the liquid price will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the business agency data monitoring: on October 16, the overall price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the price of most manufacturers remained stable in the week after the festival. On October 16, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39500 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the beginning of the week (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on October 12 was 39500 yuan / ton). On October 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the beginning of the week (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on October 12 was 44200 yuan / ton). On the 16th, the mainstream quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 35000-40000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was around 40000-45000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate is temporarily stable after the double holiday. Although the price has a slight upward trend in the near future, the quotation of lithium carbonate manufacturers remains unchanged, which may be to increase the shipment volume before the price rises. It is understood that in the near future, the supply of electricity and carbon has been tightened, and the demand for downstream procurement has increased, which may lead to an increase in future prices. However, the output rebounded in October, which eased the shortage of supply. Therefore, it may be difficult for the price of lithium carbonate to rise sharply.

At present, the demand increase of lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate in the downstream is about 10%, and the structure of supply and demand has been improved. In terms of lithium hydroxide, the accumulation of stocks in September was serious, and the cost support price was firm. In the aspect of ternary materials and precursors, the recent market transactions are not high, the prices of raw materials are relatively stable, and the prices of precursors and materials are relatively unchanged.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on October 15, 2020, there were 17 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector with a month on month increase in the price list of bulk commodities. Among them, there were 2 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate. The top three commodities with the increase were ammonium sulfate (6.33%), phenylene (5.26%) and hydrogen peroxide (4.37%). There were 5 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with hydrogenated benzene (- 1.53%), maleic anhydride (- 0.76%) and ethylene (- 0.42%).

Lithium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the current power market demand growth is obvious, the output is gradually rising, and the supply tension is gradually easing. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price may be in a good state in the short term, but in the long run, it is difficult for the price to rise.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 16, the average price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black was 4800 yuan / ton, and the domestic silica market was running stably, with the quotation range of 4000-5000 yuan / ton.

The domestic rubber grade silica market has a stable trend. At present, the shipment is smooth, the negotiation atmosphere is general, and the demand is not good. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the merchants take the goods carefully, and the shipment is slow. At present, the price of fumed silica is about 22000 yuan / ton. The domestic supply and demand of fumed silica are balanced, and the shipment is slow. The Changtai micro nano factory in Shouguang City, Shandong Province, 5300 yuan / ton, Shandong Lihua new materials Co., Ltd Ltd. 5100 yuan / ton, Boai County Xiangsheng silicon powder Co., Ltd. 4000 yuan / ton.

The quotation of upstream hydrochloric acid market manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the market trend is stable. The quotation is mainly stable. The trading atmosphere is maintained at the previous level. In the short term, the hydrochloric acid market mainly operates stably.

On October 16, the chemical index was 759 points, up 2 points compared with yesterday, 25.30% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 26.92% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

White carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market maintains a stable operation situation, and the price fluctuation range is limited. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

In 2020, the price of magnesium ingot will generally show a downward trend, reaching the historical low in recent years. According to the data of the business agency, the price of magnesium ingot began to stabilize in mid September. This week, the price of magnesium ingot rebounded and rose slightly.

On October 16, 2020, the price quotation of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China increased slightly, and the current mainstream quotation range was 12400-12700 yuan / T, and the actual price was mainly discussed. It is reported that at present, the actual transaction price in the mainstream production area market is between 12350 yuan and 12650 yuan / ton, with the price rising slightly.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 12350-12500 yuan / ton; Taiyuan is 12500-12600 yuan / ton; Wenxi district is 12600-12700 yuan / ton; Ningxia is 12450-12500 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

The main reason for the recovery of magnesium price

1. The price falls to a low level

On October 15, the magnesium commodity index was 75.61, flat with yesterday, down 33.92% from the cycle’s highest point of 114.43 (2012-08-01), and 4.03% higher than the lowest point of 72.68 on January 10, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-03-01 to now)

 
At present, the price is near the historical low, and the downward space is narrowed.

2. Trading improves and the willingness to stand up rises

It is reported that from January to July 2020, China’s Communist magnesium reached 465400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.66%.

After the festival, the downstream purchase inquiry volume increased significantly compared with the previous period, the actual transaction also improved, the willingness of magnesium enterprises to support the price increased, and the quotation moved up this week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large volume list of business associations, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price in the first half of October rose slightly and then remained stable, with the first half of the month at a low price of 7503 yuan / ton; the mid month price (October 16) was 7524 yuan / ton, with a half month increase of 0.28%; on October 8 and 9, the half month high price was 7530 yuan / ton, and the half month amplitude was only 0.36%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, since October 1, propylene prices have remained stable on the whole, with some enterprises’ prices rising and falling slightly. In the second week of October, they remained stable. On Friday, only a few enterprises’ prices fell slightly, and most enterprises continued to maintain stability. The market transaction is still between 7480 and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7500 yuan / ton. Recently, part of the propylene plant maintenance, the overall supply is still a little tight.

On October 15, crude oil prices fell slightly, which had a limited impact on propylene market.

In the first half of the month, the spot price of PP stabilized after rising, with a half month increase of 1.66%, which may have some positive impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market rose sharply in the first half of the month, up 9.66% in the first half of the month, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market rose slightly in the first half of the month, with a half month increase of 0.89%, which had little impact on propylene.

In the first half of the month, the price of epichlorohydrin fell, and the half month decline was 1.18%, and the half month amplitude was 3.53%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

In the first half of the month, the domestic price of n-butanol rose slightly, with a half month increase of 3.16%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

In the first half of the month, octanol market rebounded and rose, with a half month increase of 1.35% and a half month amplitude of 2.26%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

In the first half of the month, the isopropanol market rose significantly and remained stable, with a half month increase of 7.14% and a half month amplitude of 7.56%.

In the first half of the month, the price of phenol in East China remained stable after a continuous rise, with a half month increase of 7.37%.

In the first half of the month, the price of acetone in East China remained stable after rising continuously, with a half month increase of 11.61%, which also had a certain effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: on the whole, the current propylene manufacturers have less stocks, the crude oil price has dropped slightly, and the supply is slightly tight. At present, there are more plant overhauls, and the downstream companies are mainly on a small scale, but most of them are just needed purchases. The current propylene price has been at the recent high level for a long time and has been digested. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will remain stable in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, after a sharp rise of 18.35% in September, the price of dioxin has dropped. After the national day double festival, the market of hydrogen peroxide has taken off one after another. After the middle of October, hydrogen peroxide took off again, and the price rose again on the basis of 18% increase in September. As of October 16, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1170 yuan / ton, which was 26.26% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January to September in 2020, it can be seen that the price of hydrogen peroxide in the first nine months is still falling more or less, with a larger drop in February and April, both exceeding 10%, and a relatively small decline in March, may and August. Prices rose mainly in January, June and September, with the largest increase of more than 30% in June. After June, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline by nearly 9% in July. The decline slowed down in August, with the price falling by about 2%. Awesome, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in September rose to over 15%. After the national day, hydrogen peroxide once again ushered in rising sentiment, silver can be expected.

On October 16, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 184.41, which was 10.88 points higher than yesterday, 1.88 points lower than 187.94 points (October 29, 2019), and 105.24% higher than 89.85 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to the present)

In the first ten days of September, the price of pure benzene rose and the cost was good. Caprolactam supply decreased, procurement increased and prices began to rise. In late September, some caprolactam enterprises resumed production and increased supply. As supply exceeds demand, inventory pressure increases. Prices began to fall. After the national day, the supply is tight, caprolactam staged a rise again

On October 16, the specific price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper was 178.23, which was 11.66 points higher than yesterday, 27.55% lower than 246.00 points (October 21, 2019), and 65.73% higher than 107.54 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from January 1, 2017 to the present)

After the end of the double holiday, the overall stability of the base paper market, the paper mill inventory intention is obvious. Due to the fact that most of the holiday price of waste yellow board paper is in a stable state, the preferential profit concession of paper mills has been cancelled, and the market may be in a state of narrow pull-up. With the resumption of production of paper mills after the holiday, the need to replenish inventory exists. In addition, the national e-commerce has officially entered the double-11 large-scale stock preparation state, which may usher in a new round of price rising power. To a certain extent, it has increased the confidence of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business agency, believes that: hydrogen peroxide gold nine has already appeared, and silver ten has been staged in succession. Hydrogen peroxide is still expected to continue to rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. The average price of ethylene on the 8th day was 757.75 US dollars / ton, and that on the 15th day was 773.00 US dollars / ton, up 2.01%. The current price is up 5.17% month on month, and the current price is down 11.91% year on year.

Recently, ethylene is on the rise as a whole. Asian ethylene market prices rose, as of the 14th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at 850-860 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia closed at 825-835 US dollars / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 14th, the European ethylene market prices were FD, northwest Europe closed at 703-716 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 690-701 US dollars / ton. Ethylene prices in the U.S. rose to US $479-491/t as of the 14th. The ethylene market in Europe and the United States rose slightly in the first and middle of October. Overall, the demand of the whole ethylene market was fair, and the market tended to be upward.

International: on October 14, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.04/barrel, up $0.84. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.32/barrel, up $0.87. More than 90% of crude oil production capacity has been stagnated due to the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico; Norwegian oil workers have gone on strike; Saudi Arabia has raised the official price of Arab light crude oil; and the EIA report at the beginning of the month showed that crude oil stocks fell by 1.98 million barrels last week. Good stimulation of international oil prices, ethylene cost support, ethylene external market continued to rise.

Recently, styrene in East China continued to rise sharply. In terms of cost, crude oil rose sharply, pure benzene and ethylene rose slowly along with the trend, and the overall cost support of styrene was strong. In terms of inventory, the social stock of styrene is still declining, and the supply is tight. Downstream start-up continued to run on the high side, strong rigid demand, some downstream prices rose sharply, driving up the price of styrene. In the aspect of styrene futures, the sharp rise and fall of styrene in the night trading had a negative impact on the opening market of styrene, and the traders on the floor were cautious in pursuing the rise, but they still had strong bullish psychology in the later period. On the 15th, the East China styrene quotation was raised to around 6000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that there is room for price increase in the mainstream.

In terms of crude oil, the implementation rate of OPEC’s production reduction is commendable, driven by the favorable stock market, and the implementation rate of OPEC production reduction is still implemented to lock in the rise of oil price. Driven by cost support, so business agency data analysts expect that ethylene external price will rise next.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

In recent years, the domestic lithium hydroxide Market has not changed much, and the price has been stable. As of October 15, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with October 1, and fell by 4.09% year-on-year in a half year cycle. Downstream demand increased slightly, but inventory pressure remained, and the market of lithium hydroxide ran smoothly.

According to customs statistics, in August 2020, China’s import volume of lithium hydroxide was 25.56 tons, the import amount of that month was about 180000 US dollars, and the average import price of that month was 7210.05 dollars / ton; in August 2020, China’s export volume of lithium hydroxide was 3803.1 tons, the export amount of that month was about 33.08 million dollars, and the average export price of that month was 8698.08 dollars / ton.

The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on October 14 was 39500 yuan / ton, which was 1.54% higher than that on September 14 (38900 yuan / ton). On October 14, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, which was 0.68% higher than that on September 14 (43900 yuan / ton). On the 14th, the mainstream quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 38000-42000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was around 42000-46000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the upstream lithium carbonate market is temporarily stable in the near future, the cost side has a certain support, and the downstream demand is fair, but the inventory pressure is still under. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will run smoothly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.