1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei is stable this week, and the output of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2600 yuan / ton, and that of 50% granules and 52% water-soluble powder is about 2725 yuan / ton. The supply and sales of potash in Xinjiang SDIC are normal, with 52% powder arriving at the station price of 2740 yuan / ton; the arrival price of 50% powder in Qinghai water salt system is about 2550 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as last week. Mannheim potassium sulfate factory: 50% powder about 2650; 50% particles 2700-2750; 52% water soluble powder about 2750. The potassium sulfate market runs smoothly and the overall inventory pressure is small. At present, the operation situation of potassium sulfate manufacturers in the water salt system is as good as that of Mannheim industry. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of potassium sulfate Market is gradually balancing, and the price is mainly stable for the time being. Although the high price is not good for sales, it is difficult to find the source of goods at low price. Most manufacturers have orders to be issued, so there is no pressure on sales and inventory.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club potassium sulfate analysts believe: at present, the potassium sulfate Market is going well, the inventory pressure is small, the upstream potassium chloride market support, is expected to be high consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on December 18, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 8500 yuan / ton, down 0.44% from the beginning of the week, up 8.11% month on month, and 21.3% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, PVC market began to cool down, prices fell, the focus began to move down. The weakening of futures prices this week led to market sentiment, and the spot market fell accordingly, but the range was not large. The early part of the week, the spot market showed strong performance, and the market showed a mixed situation of ups and downs. In the middle and late part of the week, the futures price continued to decline, and the spot market generally declined. Near the weekend, the decline of futures price slowed down, and the spot market continued to decline. The enterprise’s price reduction rate was 50-350 yuan within the week/ The market price is mainly around 8500 yuan / ton, which is still at a high level. There are not many low-cost goods, and most manufacturers mainly sell them in advance. At present, the supply of goods in the spot market continues to be tight, and the price of raw materials calcium carbide is rising. However, in the early stage, the high price of PVC has caused strong resistance in the downstream, sharp decrease in profits, lack of purchasing intention, and rigid demand. As the temperature drops, the demand side also cools down, and the operating rate of product enterprises declines, the demand for profiles and pipes gradually decreases, and the large orders are few, and the support force of demand side is gradually weakened On the whole, the supply side and cost side are still in force, but due to the weakening of futures prices and the decline of the support force on the demand side, PVC may be stable and downward.

In terms of spot goods, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide is mostly around 8350-8750 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 carbide in East China is around 8500-8550 yuan / ton, while that in Hebei is 8250-8320 yuan / ton. The price of Inner Mongolia is 8030-8100 yuan / ton. The range of pvc5 type tourmaline in Hangzhou is 8380-8550 yuan / ton, and that in Changzhou is 8400-8550 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 8500-8750 yuan / ton The market quotation has been reduced to varying degrees.

Futures, PVC futures prices continue to decline recently, driving the trend of the spot market. On the 17th, the main PVC futures contract v2101 opened at 7705 yuan / ton and closed at 7675 yuan / ton, down 0.84%. The previous day’s settlement price was 7740 yuan, and the trading range was 7550-7710 yuan / ton. 175000 hands were completed, and the position was reduced by 13400 hands to 93700 hands.

Regional variety and technology December 18

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8400-8550 yuan / ton

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 8500-8750 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 8250-8320 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 8380-8550 yuan / ton

Upstream crude oil, on December 17, the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of the main contract was $48.54/barrel, up $0.72. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $51.50/barrel, up $0.42. Oil prices continued to climb on Thursday and are now at a nine month high after EIA data showed a decline in US crude oil stockpiles, progress in the US fiscal stimulus plan and strong Asian demand boosted the market.

Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market is on the rise. Asian ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 17th, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 985-995 US dollars / ton, up 20 dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia quoted 925-935 dollars / ton, up 20 dollars / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. As of the 17th, the price quoted by FD in northwest Europe was 983-998 US dollars / ton, up by 6 dollars / ton. CIF northwest Europe quoted prices of 1004-1016 dollars / ton, up 12 dollars / ton. FD US Gulf offers us $683-694 / T. in recent years, the US ethylene market has been stable, and the recent European and American ethylene market has shown an upward trend. Generally speaking, the overall ethylene market demand has improved, the market trading atmosphere is warm, and the market continues to rise.

As of the 18th, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4050-4300 yuan / ton, up 13.57% from the beginning of the month. In the first ten days of December, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The downstream PVC market rose sharply, and the downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid and early December.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that the supply side and cost are still at present. With the continuous decline of futures prices, the trend of the spot market will also be affected. In addition, the cold weather, reduced demand, and strong resistance to high price PVC in the downstream are strong. It is expected that the trend of PVC in the short term will stabilize and the price will gradually fall.

The year 2020 will be a special year, and the rubber and plastic industry is no exception. As a representative rubber and plastic product with large output and strong demand, the challenges and opportunities in this year’s market naturally attract attention from both inside and outside the industry. According to the monitoring data of business agency, in 2020, the domestic ABS market will first restrain and then rise, and the price will increase by 24% at the end of the year compared with the beginning of the year. Several inflection point market point full load, the business agency takes you one by one inventory and analysis.

Cause analysis

In the first quarter, just at the beginning of the epidemic, the shutdown had a wide impact on the industrial chain. ABS upstream three material market is all depressed, styrene market is affected by the bad news of crude oil chemical industry, domestic styrene price fell accordingly, and directly reflected in the end of the quarter, the weak trend of cost side, dragging down the price of styrene. Foreign panic increased, external market prices fell sharply. The regional price gap is widening, there is room for arbitrage, and there are some hedging operations in China, which aggravates the pressure on the basis of weak market conditions. Acrylonitrile was also affected by the negative news of crude oil chemical industry, and there were new production capacity after the resumption of work, with obvious negative effects in the field. There is a situation of load drop and demand shrinkage in the downstream. Butadiene market also had a big decline, the market lack of new orders to follow up. The spot supply of external disk and tank farm is abundant, and even some enterprises’ products are exported. The high inventory of rubber industry, the high inventory of synthetic rubber industry at the middle end of the industrial chain is under pressure, and the spread of low-price transaction news in the domestic market has dragged down the overall butadiene market. Upstream overall negative ABS cost side, after the Spring Festival holiday, spot prices opened a downward channel. Market bearish factors dominated, and the peripheral news is short, ABS fell all the way to the end of March.

One belt and one helmet

The turning point of the market appeared in April, and the effectiveness of epidemic prevention LED production and life. Although the upstream three material support ambiguous cost, but somehow has stopped falling and stabilized. ABS returns to normal law of supply and demand price, but downstream factories still have considerable inventory to digest. What broke the deadlock was the “helmet fever” that began at the end of April. The security guard action of “one helmet and one belt” deployed by the traffic control bureau of the Ministry of public security has activated the potential consumption of helmets. The prices of helmets on e-commerce platforms have doubled, and the prices of some businesses have even increased by 500%, accompanied by the phenomenon of being reluctant to sell them. According to the survey by ABS Data Engineer of business club, there may be more than 200 million helmets in the society at that time, and the market scale is close to 10 billion. Netizens jokingly call helmets the inheritors of “meltblown cloth phenomenon”. ABS, as the main material of helmet outer layer, has a rapid growth. In May, the operating rate of ABS petrochemical plant in China was almost full load operation, and the industry operating rate was nearly 98%. For a time, the atmosphere of speculation rose everywhere, and the spot price rose by more than one third. It was not until June and July that the ABS rally slowed down, but it did not mean that the market was out of the blue. Business agencies believe that the continued supply shortage pattern in the second half of the year is inseparable from the outbreak of ABS demand in the second quarter.

In August, after more than a month of consolidation of the market, ABS spot shortage pattern not only did not improve, but intensified. In addition, the rebound of overseas epidemic situation led to the decrease of import goods arrival in Hong Kong, and the production of some polymerization plants was hindered by extreme weather. Although the operating rate of ABS petrochemical plant in China remains at a high level, the supply situation is tightened by multiple factors. So that the low inventory of ABS more and more supply, market prices rose. The resistance of merchants to ship is reduced, and the low price order is reduced. And the strong market into the traditional peak season, “gold nine silver ten.”.

Extended season

This year’s traditional peak season performance can be described as standard and satisfactory. Before the double festival, there was a tide of goods preparation, and after the festival, the downstream goods were still more active. Terminal demand, ABS peak season is very prosperous. In particular, the consumption of major domestic appliance enterprises and the automobile industry has remained at a high level, aggravating the tense situation of market supply. Although the lower reaches are resistant to high price goods, the demand side is stable, and the “golden nine silver ten” in 2020 can also be upgraded to an extended version. With the long-term rise of ABS, the cost pressure of downstream factories gradually increases at the end of the year. At present, the downstream purchasing operation is more resistant to high price goods. Business offers steady but the situation of the decline is frequent, the price center of gravity height is cut alternately by the clear and the dark.

Year end overview

ABS analyst of business agency thinks: in 2020, ABS can increase so much under the increasingly fierce competition of domestic polymerization plants. Of course, the main force is not the demand side. Whether it is the demand of “helmet fever” or the steady consumption of household appliances, automobiles and other industries, all reflect the mutual achievements of ABS industry chain, and the positive development of ABS and even rubber and plastic industry in China in 2020. The business agency thinks that the ABS industry is developing well this year and the market can be expected in 2021.

1、 Price trend

Recently, the LNG market has risen sharply, which has reached more than 7000 yuan / ton. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 5366 yuan / ton on December 11, 31.75% higher than that at the beginning of the month, 52.9% month on month, and 29.32% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China has risen by 30% in half a month. Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and other places have already risen to more than 7000 yuan / ton. On the 14th, the daily rise rate reached more than 1000 yuan. It can be said that it is crazy. Most liquid plants have no quotation for the time being, limited delivery, market quotation is chaotic, and most transactions are mainly through negotiation. With the sudden drop of temperature, the demand for urban gas has increased significantly. In order to ensure the people’s livelihood, there are many gas limiting and stopping production enterprises this week. The overall operating rate of the market is less than 30%. The supply has been greatly tightened, and the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, so that the liquid price has risen sharply. In order to maintain market order, Shaanxi took the lead in reducing the price by 1000 yuan on the 15th. However, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to change in a short period of time. The price of liquefied natural gas is still at a high level and the trend is strong.

Data show that natural gas continues to maintain a rapid growth. The import of natural gas has changed from increase to decrease. In November, the production of natural gas was 16.9 billion cubic meters, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, 0.1% lower than that of the previous month; the daily output of natural gas was 560 million cubic meters, an increase of 30 million cubic meters on a month on month basis. From January to November, 170.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. In November, 9.18 million tons of natural gas were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% and an increase of 16.1% last month. From January to November, 90.44 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 3.9% year on year.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of December 17, the price has increased significantly compared with the beginning of the month. The average price in Inner Mongolia is around 6850 yuan / ton, which is about 2700 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. The average price in Shaanxi is around 7500 yuan / ton, which is about 2950 yuan / ton. The average price in Shanxi is around 7350 yuan / ton, which is 2800 yuan / ton. In Ningxia, the average price is about 2850 yuan / ton In Henan Province, the average price was around 3200 yuan / ton, and the liquid price increased significantly.

Regional specification quotation (yuan / ton) date

Inner Mongolia LNG 4950-6990 December 17

Shaanxi LNG 6850-7500 December 17

Hebei LNG 6000-6300 December 17

Shanxi LNG 6750-7370 December 17

Henan LNG 7200-7700 December 17

For downstream methanol, the domestic methanol market has continued to rise in recent years, and some manufacturers have increased their ex factory quotations by about 50-80 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 15, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2210 yuan / ton, with the price rising by 4.12% on a month on month basis and 4.25% on a year-on-year basis. Business community methanol analysts predict that the short-term domestic methanol market behavior.

On the one hand, the prices in Shandong and Hebei have remained firm for some time, and the supply pressure is not great. On the other hand, some orders from Northeast China may be accepted in the future, and the ammonia quantity in the region may decline, which may lead to an upward price.

Urea market in Shandong Province fluctuated in the first ten days of December. According to urea analysts of the business club, the current agricultural demand has been followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the industrial demand is purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

As of December 16, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3610 yuan / ton, up 7.12% compared with the beginning of the month and 16.45% higher than the same period of last month. At present, the overall supply of the industry is limited. With the decline of liquid chlorine price, enterprises in Shandong may start to recover, while the downstream market just needs to be flat. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will be stable and firm in a short time. Pay attention to the changes of liquid chlorine price of raw materials.

3、 Future forecast

With the sharp decline in the supply and demand of natural gas, analysts believe that the supply and demand of liquefied gas in the city is still strong, and the supply and demand of natural gas is still strong.

According to the statistics of business agency, as of December 16, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was 16766 yuan / ton, which was 500 yuan / ton higher than the price at the beginning of the month, 3.07% or 0.40% higher than that at the beginning of the month; the price of nylon POY was 14320 yuan / ton, up 560 yuan / ton, up 4.07%, down 0.28%; the price of nylon FDY was 17700 yuan / ton, down 1.92% year-on-year.

Boosted by the good news of the new crown vaccine, the market placed expectations on a rebound in fuel demand. At the same time, the news of oil well attack in Iraq kept the crude oil price on a strong trend. As of December 15, WTI crude oil price settlement price was 47.62 USD / barrel, 6.89% higher than the price at the beginning of December. In December, cyclohexanone delivery was significantly hindered, and the crude oil prices of cyclohexanone rose in a strong way. The operating rate of caprolactam is still not high, while the operating rate of PA6 is still acceptable, and the supply of caprolactam is tight. Last week, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam price was raised by 300 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton. At present, PA6 is at a high level. Downstream factories are against high price goods. Replenishment operation is cautious and tends to operate stably.

The price of nylon filament is generally raised. On the one hand, textile orders have picked up. The fundamental reason is that the price of raw materials is firm, the cost remains high, and there is a possibility of strong operation in the short term. The price increases range from 300 to 800 yuan / ton. Considering the tight supply of caprolactam and the price of PA6 does not decrease, the price of nylon has been shifted upward. It is worth noting that near the end of the year, the demand of textile enterprises to replenish the stock market has some support. Under the premise of stabilizing the raw material end, nylon market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Business agency analysts believe that crude oil prices remain high, caprolactam operating rate is not high, tight supply. Raw material prices remain firm, and trade consumption is expected to pick up, and nylon is expected to run in a stable and strong position.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was stable. Compared with the domestic hydrogen oxide industry, the average price of hydrogen oxide fell to 88.00 yuan in the first 12 months, which was the same as that of domestic enterprises.

In recent years, the upstream lithium carbonate market has risen, the cost support has risen, the downstream high nickel demand has steadily increased, which has driven the market inventory digestion, and the new investment enterprises have gradually increased the volume, the market capacity is sufficient, and the market is stable. At present, the quotation of Shanghai Yulun industrial industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; Zigong tongfarong industrial industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; Shanghai oujin industrial industrial industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 50000 yuan / ton, and anhydrous lithium hydroxide is 99000 yuan / ton. The specific delivery price is discussed in a single way.

The upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of the business agency: this week (12.7-12.11), the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. In recent days, the price of industrial carbon and electric carbon have increased and fluctuated by 1000 yuan / ton. On December 11, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 45600 yuan / ton, up 1.79% compared with the beginning of the week. On December 1, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 48700 yuan / ton, up 0.83% compared with the beginning of the week.

On December 13, the commodity price index of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 91.54, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 23.22% from the lowest point of 74.29 on September 20, 2020. (Note: the period refers to January 1, 2013 to now)

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 49 th week (12.7-12.11) of 2020, there were 36 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 5 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 5.4% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were acetic acid (14.06%), nitric acid (13.16%) and maleic anhydride (10.45%). There were 22 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 3.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; the top three products were phthalic anhydride (- 6.82%), styrene (- 6.40%), propylene glycol (- 5.33%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.63%.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the recent upward trend in the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream and the increase in downstream demand have a certain support for the price of lithium hydroxide, but the market supply is sufficient to contain it. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

1、 Trend analysis

On the 14th, the spot copper price was 57950 yuan / ton, down 0.47% from the previous day, 18.18% higher than the beginning of the year, and 18.09% higher than that of the previous day. Today, LME3 copper rose in the early trading, and the Asian market closed at $7800, up 0.35%. The main trend of copper in Shanghai was weak today, with the lowest closing at 57220 yuan and the last closing at 57850 yuan, down 0.52%.

As the prospect of brexit without an agreement has hit the market sentiment, the US stimulus plan negotiation is deadlocked again, the smelter has the possibility of year-end momentum, and the tight situation of scrap copper will gradually ease, and the trend of copper price is weak today. In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory fell by 8000 tons last week, and the inventory in the previous period decreased by 16000 tons to 82000 tons, and the inventory in China’s bonded area decreased slightly by 2000 tons. London Metal Exchange (LME) on December 11, London copper’s latest inventory of 146325 tons, a decrease of 1500 tons, or 1.01%, from the previous trading day. At present, although the domestic electrolytic copper production has increased significantly, the demand is still improved, and the depolarization will continue. It is expected that the copper price will continue to fall, and there is little room for copper price to continue to fall.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, after the national day, the hydrogen peroxide market rose by 35% in October. In November, the market of hydrogen peroxide gradually fell by 10%. In December, the market of hydrogen peroxide was on the rise again. As of December 14, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1370 yuan / ton, which was 4.58% higher than that in early December and 27.64% higher than that in early October.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2019 to November 2020, it can be seen that in 2019, hydrogen peroxide performed strongly in the first half of the year, rising for four consecutive months, with the highest increase of 24.29%. In the second half of the year, the performance of hydrogen peroxide was average, only two months was rising, and the largest increase of hydrogen peroxide was close to 40% in August. In the fourth quarter, hydrogen peroxide rose 25% in October, and fell more than 10% in November and December.

The hydrogen peroxide Market in the first 11 months of 2020 is weaker than that in 2019. In the first half of the year, the hydrogen peroxide market fell for four months in a row, and rose only 0.9% in January. The price of hydrogen peroxide rose 32% in June compared with that in 2019. Hydrogen peroxide in the second half of the year is similar to that in 2019. In October, hydrogen peroxide still rose sharply. This year, it rose by 35%, which was the highest in the whole year. In November, it dropped by nearly 10%. After nearly half a month in December, hydrogen peroxide has increased by 4.58%

Terminal caprolactam performance strong, hydrogen peroxide prices continue to rise

After the national day, the hydrogen peroxide market went through a short consolidation period. At the end of the month, due to the centralized maintenance of manufacturers and tight supply, plus the terminal caprolactam market and rigid demand support, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers raised the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide one after another. The market began to rise sharply in the middle of the month, with an increase of more than 35%. After Jinjiu, silver ten was ushered.

Since November, due to the fact that hydrogen peroxide rose by 35% in October, the price was at a high level, and the market acceptance was low. In addition, the stock market of terminal paper industry ended on November 11, the demand turned weak, and the promotion effect of caprolactam market was limited. The hydrogen peroxide market began to dive from high platform and fell sharply. In the last ten days of November, the market of hydrogen peroxide gradually stabilized. Throughout November, the price of hydrogen peroxide dropped nearly 10%,

In December, the market of terminal caprolactam was on the rise. The enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide increased. The inventory of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers was at a low level. In addition, the price of hydrogen peroxide began to recover and the market continued to rise. As of December 14, the price of hydrogen peroxide had increased by 4.58% compared with the beginning of the month.

On December 14, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 180.44, down 0.15 points compared with yesterday, 17.65% lower than 219.12 points (October 27, 2020), and 100.82% higher than 89.85 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to the present)

The price of caprolactam began to rise after a small fluctuation in early October. Caprolactam inventory decreased and supply decreased. Raw material pure benzene rose, downstream demand for caprolactam increased, upstream and downstream strong support, caprolactam prices rose. At the end of the month, the downstream demand weakened and the market gradually stabilized. Caprolactam rose 5% throughout October.

In November, the price of caprolactam rose sharply due to the rise of raw material pure benzene, and the shortage of manufacturers’ parking for maintenance. As a result, the price of caprolactam rose strongly and kept rising. Near the end of the month, the favorable factors were digested by the market, and the increase of Caprolactam market was limited. The price of caprolactam rose nearly 7% in November, which was better than that in October.

Since December, the cost side of the supply side is double positive, the price of caprolactam is rising, and the operating rate is general. Shandong Haili is still in the process of parking for maintenance and has not been restarted. In the overhaul of orchid scientific innovation, the supply is tight, and the operating rate of downstream PA6 is better. Lido support, caprolactam factory generally increased the ex factory price, the market rose half a month, as of the 14th, caprolactam price rose more than 5%. The market of terminal caprolactam rose sharply, the demand for hydrogen peroxide recovered, and manufacturers were confident in supporting prices, and the hydrogen peroxide market rose one after another.

Li Bing, an analyst with hydrogen peroxide in business, said: “hydrogen peroxide market has recovered in December, and caprolactam is awesome, so hydrogen peroxide is expected to continue to rise.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price rose slightly on the 14th. The spot nickel price was 132750 yuan / ton, up 1.84% compared with the previous trading day, 16.72% higher than the beginning of the year, and 19.49% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel opened at 128700 yuan, and the price rose smoothly after the opening, closing at 130930 yuan, up 1.30%. LME3 nickel closed at $17600, up 1.53%.

2、 Market analysis

In the rainy season, the Philippines is in short supply of nickel ore, the inventory of refined nickel is declining and the demand for battery grade nickel is improving. In addition, the demand for stainless steel has been stable since this year, and the market performance is weak outside and strong inside. In November 2020, the domestic electrolytic nickel production was 12167 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.72%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.33%. In November, the operating rate of domestic electrolytic nickel smelting was 70.33%, slightly lower than that of 71.56% of the previous month. At present, the production and operation of refineries in production will maintain normal state, and the short-term output may not be further expanded due to the influence of demand off-season at the end of the year.

Future forecast: nickel price is expected to be strong in the near future.

This week, the acetone market opened in a weak position. The supply was expected to increase significantly, but the demand was still dominated by rigid demand. The pressure of the shipholders increased and the price was reduced. The market offer fell to 8100-8200 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the port is expected to increase the arrival volume; on the other hand, Ningbo Taihua phenol ketone plant will start operation this week, although the current limited delivery, but the domestic supply is expected to increase. In addition, Shanghai Gaoqiao factory in East China fell 250 yuan / ton again near the end of the day, and 8450 yuan / ton was implemented. Yangzhou Shiyou down 300 yuan / ton. In terms of downstream situation, due to the current environmental pressure, some factories have started to decline, and some regions have shutdown phenomenon. The terminal factory is obviously short of gas, and the real price needs to be improved.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market offer in East China is around 8100-8200 yuan / ton, while that in Yanshan and Shandong is 8600 yuan / ton, which is basically in line with the factory’s guiding price. The market offer is less, while that in South China is 8350 yuan / ton, showing a marked decline in the market.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on December 1, the market offer in East China was 8850 yuan / ton, and on December 14, it was 8150 yuan / ton (8100-8200 yuan / ton), the market fell by 7.91%, while the mainstream price of factories was 8450-8650 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream raw material pure benzene Market performed poorly, with Dongming Petrochemical quoted 4500 yuan / T; HSBC Petrochemical quoted 4600 yuan / T; JC Petrochemical quoted 4230 yuan / T; Fuhai Hualian quoted 4200 yuan / T; Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 4400 yuan / T; Sinochem Hongrun quoted 4650 yuan / T. Domestic pure benzene fell with the price of styrene. At present, the price difference between internal and external markets is expanding, which has certain support for the domestic market, and the decline of pure benzene is expected to weaken. Pay close attention to Sinopec’s price guidelines. The current domestic price of pure benzene is 4200-4650 yuan / ton. In terms of raw material propylene, since mid December, the market price of propylene in Shandong has continued to decline. The existing propylene manufacturers shut down their plants, and their stocks are not large, and the shipment is general. The price of crude oil has declined slightly. In the near future, the price of propylene may start to stabilize, and it is not ruled out that the recovery is possible.

In terms of downstream market, the center of gravity of bisphenol a market has fallen sharply. The current market reference price has dropped to 18600 yuan / ton, and there are few transactions in the market. Traders have suspended the offer, and the current guidance price from the factory is 19000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this week, the bisphenol a market was slightly less optimistic, and the support of the terminal resin industry also declined significantly, and the high price of bisphenol a market could not be guaranteed under the transmission of the industrial chain.

Market forecast: at present, the current holders are worried about the increase of supply in the later period, but the foreseeable demand has not changed well. They are completely in the rigid demand procurement, and the real offer situation is not optimistic. It is expected that the short-term weak trend of East China market will be lowered, and the negotiation is expected to be at 8000 yuan / ton.