1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries rose slightly. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 1496.50 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke market at the weekend was 1505.75 yuan / ton, up 0.62%, up 42.29% year on year. On December 25, the petroleum coke commodity index was 117.11, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 24.73% from 155.59 points (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 75.08% from 66.89 points, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of petroleum coke was basically stable, and the price of some refineries rose. The price of low sulfur coke remained stable at a high level and the demand was stable. Due to the influence of heating season, the demand of downstream carbon enterprises is general, and the receiving intention of downstream is general.

Upstream: in the process of continuous improvement of the international crude oil market, it was reported that the mutation virus was found in the UK, and most cities in the UK were strictly closed. A number of countries around the world have suspended air traffic with the UK, and the demand for crude oil has been significantly restrained. This week, the international crude oil price had a correction, with WTI crude oil price down 2.05% and Brent crude oil price down 1.76%.

Downstream: affected by heating and environmental factors, the carbon market is weak and stable; the price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuates at a high level; the cost of silicon metal market supports the price decline.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 51st week of 2020 (12.21-12.25), there are 7 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have increased month on month, with methanol (2.84%), coke (2.36%) and dimethyl ether (1.70%) in the top 3. There were 8 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, with WTI crude oil (- 2.05%), liquefied gas (- 1.87%) and Brent crude oil (- 1.76%) as the top three products. The average rise and fall this week was 0.02%.

Analysts of petroleum coke from business news agency believe that: affected by the heating and environmental protection factors in the downstream, as well as the capital constraints at the end of the year, the intention of receiving goods in the downstream is general, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that petroleum coke will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market was weak this week. As of December 25, the average price of hydrogenated maleic anhydride remained around 8500.00 yuan / ton, down 0.39% from the beginning of the week and 6.93% from the same period last month.

Yesterday, the commodity index rose 123.56% from the lowest point in December 2014 to December 26, 2020, and was flat from the lowest point in December 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market started stable, and some enterprises carried out preliminary orders. Under the influence of environmental protection factors, the operation rate of unsaturated resin downstream is general, and the resin market demand is general. As of the 25th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 7800 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 8200 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 7800 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 7800 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 79600 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, according to the data of business club’s block list, pure benzene fell this week. On December 27, the price of pure benzene was 3880-4600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 4414 yuan / ton, a decrease of 72 yuan / ton or 1.6% compared with last week; the recent start-up of hydrobenzene was relatively stable, and the port pure benzene inventory declined, with price consolidation as the main trend. As of December 25, the mainstream quotation range of hydrobenzene market in Shandong was 4000-4050 yuan / ton, with an average price of 4025 yuan / ton; the price of n-butane was firm.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current maleic anhydride market has strong wait-and-see sentiment, the downstream resin demand is general, the terminal demand performance is general, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong. It is expected that the price will be sorted out in a short time.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber was strong this week (12.18-12.25). As of December 25, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 5918 yuan / ton, up 3.32% from last Friday’s price of 5728, and down 17.43% year on year. Many manufacturers offer a small increase. In the futures market, the main short fiber Futures (2105) closed down at 6304 on December 25, down 14 or 0.22% from the closing of 6318 on Friday. Crude oil and PTA futures first suppressed and then rose, which led to the concussion rebound of polyester staple fiber futures. The rebound of raw materials and futures led to the strength of polyester staple fiber spot price, but the downstream emission reduction and power limitation led to the decline of polyester staple fiber spot production and sales. Restricted by demand, polyester staple fiber spot or difficult to continue to strengthen.

2、 Factors affecting price

PTA: domestic PTA spot market fell slightly this week. Over the weekend, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3630 yuan / ton, down 0.68% compared with the beginning of the week and 25.87% compared with the same period last year.. Crude oil rose last weekend due to the launch of new crown vaccines one after another and the news of OPEC production reduction. This week, crude oil fell due to repeated attacks of new crown epidemic. After stabilizing, crude oil prices fell.

2. Ethylene glycol: the domestic ethylene glycol spot market rose this week. This weekend, the average ex factory price of oil based glycol in North China was 4050 yuan / ton, up 4.3% from last Friday and down 22.85% from last year. Macro market preference, port inventory decline, emission reduction in many places, power rationing and production reduction, ethylene glycol price rebound. However, the downstream chemical fiber weaving market gradually entered the off-season, production and sales fell, ethylene glycol or re appear accumulation, market downward pressure increased.

3. Polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market is running smoothly this week. This weekend, the spot market average price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, the same as last week, with a year-on-year drop of 7.25%. The previous week, the domestic textile market is showing signs of warming up. The number of new orders of textile enterprises has increased. In some areas, yarn prices have generally increased slightly. The sales of middle and low-end yarn are better, while the high-end textile and clothing market is still poor. The market performance of different varieties is still different. The quotation of pure polyester yarn market is stable, but the focus of discussion is slightly floating.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency believe that crude oil and PTA have risen in shock since the beginning of November, but this week, affected by repeated public health events, prices have fallen, which has weakened the support for polyester staple fiber cost. The downstream weaving market entered into the traditional off-season, the number of new orders decreased, the turnover of winter fabrics decreased, the orders of spring fabrics were relatively limited, the start-up rate of weaving enterprises was insufficient, and the polyester yarn mills entered the warehouse. Short fiber spot production and sales after the initial hot inventory levels rise, short-term follow-up purchasing enthusiasm or weakened, wait-and-see mood or increased. It is expected that the short fiber spot market will enter the accumulation stage in the future. However, the current crude oil, PTA futures is still strong shock trend, cost support still exist. Short term short fiber futures or continue to show strong oscillation trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 1906 yuan / ton on January 1, and 2116 yuan / ton on December 23. The overall increase of monoammonium phosphate in the whole year was 11.01%, with the maximum amplitude of 12.97%.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2200 yuan / ton, and that on December 23 was 2440 yuan / ton. The overall increase of diammonium phosphate in the whole year was 10.91%, and the maximum amplitude was 13.74%.

2、 Market analysis

In 2020, the market of monoammonium phosphate is relatively volatile, with an overall upward trend and a high price at the end of the year. During the spring ploughing season in the first quarter, the peak season of the year was ushered, and the overall price of map rose by 9.27%. In the peak season of phosphate fertilizer, chemical fertilizer rises together. The raw materials of ammonium phosphate rose sharply, and the demand of downstream compound fertilizer was strong, which led to the price rise of ammonium phosphate. Due to poor demand in the off-season, monoammonium phosphate fell sharply in the second quarter, and the overall price fell by 3.58% in the quarter. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer is weak, the market transaction is limited, and the supply of monoammonium phosphate is sufficient, the market is weak, and the price trend is relatively stable. The inflection point was realized in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, the market of ammonium phosphate was boosted by the tight supply of goods, cost support and other favorable factors. The price went up, and the focus of trading moved up. In the quarter, the overall price of monoammonium phosphate rose by 13.39%. Towards the end of the year, the lower reaches of the market showed fatigue and limited ability to receive goods. The offer of some areas of map began to loosen. However, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in the market remained stable. With the weakening of the support of the demand side in the future, the market may usher in an inflection point.

In 2020, the market of diammonium phosphate was first depressed and then rose. In the second half of the year, the price rose all the way. At the end of the year, the price rose to a high level in the year, showing a bright performance. The overall price of diammonium phosphate rose by 1.14% in the first quarter. Due to the low price of raw materials and poor transportation in many places, the downstream traders mainly digest the inventory, with poor enthusiasm, strong market supply and weak demand, and the price rise of DAP is hindered. In March, prices began to rise and then stabilized. With Hubei enterprises resuming production one after another, the spot supply is sufficient, new downstream purchase orders are reduced, and the export competition is fierce. The market of diammonium phosphate fell in the second quarter, and the overall price fell by 3.58% in the quarter. In the second half of the year, the domestic and foreign demand for diammonium phosphate increased, the supply of goods was relatively tight, the market gradually improved, and the price began to rise continuously. Near the end of the year, the tight supply of goods continues, the demand for exports slows down, and the market transaction is tepid. However, the demand for downstream fertilizer is stable, and the price is still high. It is expected that the short-term market will be stable.

2020 is coming to an end. The domestic phosphorus ore market is weak and stable as a whole, and the downstream demand is weak. There are not many new orders to purchase, and the support for phosphorus ore is limited. The phosphorus ore industry mainly focused on stabilizing the price a year ago. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the recent adjustment of the phosphorus ore market is limited, and it is expected that the quotation will not be reduced, and the overall stable operation is the main.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts of the business club believe that 2020 will be a tough year for the chemical industry, while the market of ammonium phosphate is boosted by favorable factors such as tight supply and cost support, showing a bright performance and the overall price trend is upward. Although the trend of monoammonium phosphate fluctuated in this year, it did not fall deeply. The attitude of the industry was relatively stable, and it reached a high level at the end of the year. However, after dormant in the first half of the year, diammonium phosphate started to rise in the second half of the year without any correction. At present, there is no obvious negative factor. The market of ammonium phosphate is expected to be stable before the end of the year, and the future market still needs to pay attention to the demand side guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the large list of business associations, the price of domestic toluene rose after falling this week, and fell overall compared with last week. On December 13, the price of toluene was 3860 yuan / ton; on Sunday (December 20), the price was at 3850 yuan / ton, 10 yuan / ton lower than last week, or 0.26%.

2、 Analysis and comment

During the week, the listed price of toluene in East China increased by 150 yuan / ton, by 100 yuan / ton in Central China, and decreased by 100 yuan / ton in South China. Toluene price is supported by crude oil price; downstream TDI, PX and other start-up is stable, and demand is weak; at present, gasoline price has an obvious impact on toluene price.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil this week showed an overall upward trend. The US economic stimulus plan negotiations are expected to reach an agreement, and the crude oil market is boosted. Compared with December 11, Brent was up $1.94/barrel, or 3.88%; WTI was up $2.49/barrel, or 5.33%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 22.16%, and WTI decreased by 18.97%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of this week was higher than that of last week, and the price of domestic products was 12766.67 yuan / ton, up 0.52% over last week. At present, the TDI market is weak, the atmosphere is cold, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry is not high, and the future market is weak.

In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton this week, which was stable compared with last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.82%. The supply of goods in PX yard is normal and the goods are in good condition. PX prices rose this week. As of the end of the week, the Asian PX market closed at US $608.5/t FOB Korea and US $626.5/t CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business agency: first look at the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction implementation, total number of us oil drilling and weekly EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress in the research and development of new coronal vaccine, the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market.

Crude oil prices rose as a whole, with strong support from the cost side. But the downstream demand is weak, and the upward breakthrough resistance of toluene price is greater. We will focus on the trend of gasoline blended price, and it is expected that there will be upward momentum at the end of the year. Overall, it is expected that the domestic toluene price will continue to rise next week.

According to statistics from the business agency, on December 10, the average spot market price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. In the downstream market, textile mills and traders have prepared goods ahead of time, and the pure polyester yarn market quotation is stable, but the focus of negotiation is slightly floating. According to the survey data of China Light and Textile City, yarn output fell by 0.3% month on month and 1.1% year-on-year. Among them, blended yarn and chemical fiber yarn accounted for 33.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month. The yarn sales rate was 81%, 5% lower than last month. At present, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises is 13.94 days, which is 0.51 days higher than that of last month.

Last week, signs of recovery in the domestic textile market revealed that the number of new orders of textile enterprises had increased. Yarn prices in some regions were generally increased slightly, and the sales of medium and low-end yarns were good, while the high-end textile and clothing market was still poor, and the market performance differences among different varieties were still large. China’s import of foreign yarn is active and the festival consumption stimulates the terminal demand of retail market, and the price of outer yarn has recovered; the tense situation of container is difficult to ease in the short term, the sea freight price is still high, and the price difference of internal and external yarn continues to hang upside down, and the hanging range continues to converge compared with the previous week.

In the near future, the price of crude oil is strong, supporting the cost of crude oil. The price of polyester staple fiber has risen sharply, and the production and sales volume have been increased. The quotation of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester staple fiber manufacturers has been raised, and the trading atmosphere is relatively light. The mainstream transaction price of 1.4d is between 5595-5650 yuan / ton yuan / ton, which is a single discussion. The quotation of Fujian polyester staple fiber manufacturers remained stable, and the actual order was negotiated for shipment, and the actual order of 1.4d was about 5600-5700 yuan / T. Shandong, Hebei polyester staple fiber prices are mostly stable, trading atmosphere is general.

The opening rate of weaving Market is stable, and some market orders are getting better. Since December, the textile market has gradually improved. The domestic weaving load was stable at 77.67%, and the weaving operation rate was slightly higher than that in the previous statistical cycle. With the boost of vaccine, the market’s expectation for the recovery of peripheral terminal textile demand was gradually strengthened. The subsequent spring and summer clothing orders still faced the risk of last year’s inventory and RMB appreciation, and the turning point of weaving opening rate has not yet appeared. Recently, the spot transaction and order delivery of chemical fiber grey cloth in China Light and textile city have rebounded month on month, and the price index shows a slight upward trend, while the transaction price of polyester yarn grey cloth, polyester spinning grey cloth, polyester crepe grey cloth, polyester hemp grey cloth and polyester yarn dyed grey cloth has increased slightly month on month. Clothing fabric sales rose on a month on month basis, while market turnover increased slightly. Boosted by the “double 12″ market, orders of clothing fabrics in early winter increased month on month, while fabric orders in spring increased month on month, and prices rose slightly.

Generally speaking, the stable raw material prices in the near future have given certain confidence to the downstream, adding to the optimistic expectation of the downstream for 2021, which leads to the early preparation of textile mills and traders in mid and late December. Businesses believe that this wave of market is mainly downstream replenishment at the end of the year, whether consumer demand is increasing, is still skeptical. At present, the persistence of terminal demand is limited, and the market mentality is cautious. Business agency analysts believe that in accordance with past practice, the situation of downstream funds is generally tight at the end of the year. Moreover, foreign trade orders caused by the decline of overseas demand this year are difficult to be large-scale. Even if the price increase of staple fiber can be transmitted to the yarn mill, it is extremely difficult for the price of the yarn mill to continue to pass down after the price rise. The terminal demand is difficult to see a substantial improvement, and the pure polyester yarn market is stable and strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was stable this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus is 15500 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus market is stable this week, and the driving situation is basically normal. At present, the market sales situation is fair, the downstream goods taking situation has improved, the transaction is more active than before, and the yellow phosphorus enterprises intend to stabilize. So far, the market quotation in Yunnan is about 15500-15800 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 15200-15300 yuan / ton. The price of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 15400-15600 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the overall market situation of phosphate ore is weak and stable, the downstream demand is weak, and there are not many new orders to purchase, so the support for phosphate rock is limited. Phosphate rock industry mainly focused on stabilizing price this year. In the near future, the adjustment of phosphate ore market is limited, and it is expected that the quotation will not be lowered, and the overall stable operation is mainly maintained.

In terms of coke, as of December 17, the spot market: the price of coke remained stable after rising, and the ninth round of increase was fully implemented. The supply side continues to be tight, and some new capacity is put into production, but it is slightly weak to ease the current supply situation. At present, the sales of coking enterprises are very good, and the inventory is on the low side. In the near future, due to the cold weather, some steel mills have the intention to supplement due to cold weather. In terms of ports, the prices of the two ports in Shandong Province remained stable for the time being. The market trading was general, and the supply of goods available for sale in the market was on the low side. Some traders did not quote actively. In terms of price, the mainstream spot exchange ex warehouse price of quasi grade I metallurgical coke in port is about 2420 yuan / ton, the port inventory is temporarily stable, and the arrival situation is general. In the future, we still need to focus on the impact of de capacity and environmental protection and production restriction, as well as the coke inventory situation in each link. The market is still optimistic about the future market.

In terms of demand, the phosphoric acid market has been stable for a while, with little price changes. The downstream demand is stable and the transaction is good. The actual transaction is mainly through negotiation. The start-up of phosphate, phosphorus trichloride and phosphorus pentoxide was acceptable. All enterprises maintain the orders of old customers, and the demand for yellow phosphorus is better than expected.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of chemical branch of business agency, the current yellow phosphorus market has turned better recently, the volume of goods taken by enterprises has gradually increased, the yellow phosphorus market has recovered, and the quotation of yellow phosphorus enterprises has stabilized. It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will focus upward in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic PS market continued to decline slightly, with a range of 20-50 yuan / ton. The lack of good news on the periphery, combined with the light market inquiry, the majority of the cargo holders reduced their prices, and the focus of bulk cargo negotiation continued to decline, with less transactions. According to statistics, the market in East China received 9200-13600 yuan / ton of benzene and 16000 yuan / ton of modified benzene.

2、 Market analysis

The ex factory price of Zhanjiang Sino US PS is 9700 yuan / T. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS is 9200 yuan / T. The market high level shipment is not smooth, some may still have the price reduction shipment. But some brands have been hung upside down.

3、 Future forecast

Short term PS market or continue to weaken. Raw material styrene weakness, coupled with the market high-level shipping is not smooth, some still have the possibility of price reduction shipment. It is estimated that the market in East China will receive 9100-13500 yuan / ton of benzene.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of this week, the average ex factory tax inclusive price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6375.00 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the average price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6400.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.39%. The current price was 4.07% higher than that of last year, and the current price was 0.79% higher than that of last year.

This week, the domestic potash market rose slightly, the supply was tight, the regional inventory was at a low level, the downstream factories took more goods on demand, and the potassium carbonate manufacturers were more positive, and the price rose. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the mainstream factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate in China is about 6000-6700 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

Recently, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2300 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. The potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operates normally. The ex factory quotation is 2020 yuan / T, which is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Potassium chloride market stability, high price consolidation, can give potassium carbonate a certain cost support.

The potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the domestic potassium production situation in the near future is OK, and the supply of goods is concentrated in large traders. In the middle of the week, the shipment is tight. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of December 18, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 9666 yuan / ton, which was increased by 850 yuan / ton or 9.64% compared with the price on December 13; compared with the reference price of 9100 yuan / ton on December 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 566 yuan / ton, or 6.23%.

N-butanol rose 9.64% in the week due to increased demand and tight supply

This week, due to the impact of emergency repair and shutdown of foreign n-butanol production plants, exports increased, domestic demand for n-butanol increased, and the market of n-butanol broke the downturn of last week. From Monday, the price of n-butanol plants continued to rise, with a one-day increase of 100-300 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the market center of n-butanol market continued to move up. At present, the downstream industry stock is not much, just need to purchase, the atmosphere is good. In Shandong Province, n-butanol spot is tight, and the business mentality is strong. On December 18, Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 9900 yuan / ton of n-butanol, with an increase of 700 yuan / ton during the week. Shandong lihuayi n-butanol factory offer 9500 yuan / ton, increased 500 yuan / ton within the week. Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. produced 9600 yuan / ton of n-butanol from North China, with an increase of 600 yuan / ton within the week.

On the upstream side, on December 17, the propylene market prices in Shandong Province declined individually. According to the price chart of business agency, the price of propylene rose continuously in late November, increasing by more than 12%. From the end of the month to the beginning of the month, the price was stable again. On the 4th, the price rose by about 450 yuan / ton from the 3rd to the 8th, up by 5.90%. On the 9th, the price was fully stable. On the 10th, some enterprises made up for the increase, and some of them fell slightly. On the 11th, the price began to decline twice, and the decline continued on the weekend. On the 14th, the price dropped 200-250 yuan / T. on the 15th, the price was mainly stable, and most of them remained stable in the later period Some enterprises have declined slightly, and some of them have dropped slightly today. The transaction volume in the market is between 7880 and 8150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7900 yuan / ton. Now the factory inventory pressure slightly increased, the shipment situation is ordinary.

In terms of crude oil, on December 17, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $48.54/barrel, up $0.72. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $51.50/barrel, up $0.42. Oil prices continued to climb on Thursday and are now at a nine month high after EIA data showed a decline in US crude oil stockpiles, progress in the US fiscal stimulus plan and strong Asian demand boosted the market.

Purchasing atmosphere is good, inventory is low, it is expected that n-butanol will be strong in the future

At present, the downstream purchasing atmosphere of n-butanol market is good, the confidence of the industry is relatively sufficient, and the overall inventory of n-butanol factory is low. Therefore, the n-butanol data analyst of the business society predicts that the market of n-butanol in the short term will be high and strong.