In March, the propane market reopened the upward channel, and the price continued to rise, breaking the 4500 yuan level. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average propane market price was 3980.00 yuan / ton on March 1 and 4520.75 yuan / ton on March 31, with an increase of 13.59% in March, up 8.93% compared with February 1. As of March 31, the market prices of propane in China are as follows:

31 Mar 2005

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4210-4350 yuan / ton

In North China,% (V / V) is not less than 95.4300-4400 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province,% (V / V) propane is not less than 95 4400-4500 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4250-4560 yuan / ton

In March, Shandong propane Market showed a shock upward trend, the price center moved up, and the increase in that month was more obvious. According to the trend chart, it is obvious that Shandong propane market started to rise on the 4th, and the price rose significantly on the 8th. Shandong propane market rose by 5.58% on a single day, with an increase range of 100-240 yuan / ton. The positive factors in the first ten days were mainly driven by international crude oil. The results of the OPEC + meeting finally came to fruition, and the organization agreed to extend the oil production reduction to April. Saudi Arabia, the leader of OPEC, said that it would extend the plan of voluntarily reducing production by 1 million barrels per day and decide when to phase out the reduction in the next few months. In addition, Russia and Kazakhstan were allowed to increase production by 130000 B / D and 20000 B / D respectively. The results of the meeting exceeded market expectations and pushed the oil price up to the highest level in more than a year. The propane market is driven by international crude oil, and the price rises one after another. However, in the middle of the year, the international crude oil continued to fall sharply, which had a negative impact on the propane Market. On the 17th, the propane Market showed a significant decline, but the weakness was only a few days. With the rebound of crude oil, the demand for storage and replenishment in the downstream, the enthusiasm for entering the market was good, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was mild. The manufacturer’s inventory remained at a low level, and the overall market supply was low. On the 21st, the market returned to the upward channel again, and the price remained firm until the end of the month.

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco announced in April that there was a downward trend in propane butane. Propane was 560 US dollars / ton, down 65 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane was 530 US dollars / ton, down 65 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

With the introduction of CP price drop in April, which brought some restraint to the market, most of the market prices in Shandong stabilized. After the end of the downstream stage replenishment, the enthusiasm for entering the market has weakened. In the later stage, the weather is warming and the market demand is expected to weaken, but the supply side is relatively sufficient. In addition, the international crude oil trend is volatile, the cost of imported gas is falling, and the propane market is not strong enough. It is expected that the domestic propane market price will be stronger in the short term, but it is still likely to decline in the long term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber fell in March. As of March 31, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 7140 yuan / ton, down 9.98% compared with the price of 7931 at the beginning of March, and 19.63% year-on-year. All manufacturers’ quotation has been increased by 700-1000 yuan / ton.

Futures market, short fiber main futures (2105) ended early in March 31 at 6879, down 1492, or 17.84 percent, from 8304 in early March. In March, international oil prices fell nearly 13% after the high in the early month, and the prices of PTA and glycol, short fiber materials, followed by a sharp drop.

The cost has been greatly reduced, the trade middlemen drop their goods, the downstream stores are sufficient to insufficient procurement, the production and marketing of polyester staple fibers have fallen greatly, and the spot prices in the period are all down. At present, the supply and demand situation of short-term fiber has not been reversed, after the price falls, the industry profits continue to compress, processing difference has been reduced to a lower level, and the short-term downward space or limited.

2、 Factors affecting prices

1. PTA: the domestic PTA spot market price fell from the high in early March. As of March 31, the average price of the spot market was 4413 yuan / ton, down 6.96% compared with the beginning of the month, up 37.43% year on year. With the continuous decline of profits, most of PTA plants have lost money, resulting in the shutdown of many PTA plants. The number of new cases in Europe increased, the blockade and restriction measures were restarted, and the market worried that the blocked vaccination process in Europe would damage the economic recovery and fuel demand. Crude oil fell sharply, which dragged down the center of chemical industry market and weakened the support for PTA cost.

2. glycol: domestic glycol spot market prices rose and fell in March. As of March 31, the average spot market price was 5333 yuan / ton, down 11.85% from the beginning of the month, up 58.42% year on year. Factors such as European epidemic control policies affect the price of crude oil diving, ethylene also enters the callback range, price fluctuation and downward, cost side support is weak, downstream chemical fiber production and marketing are relatively light, the volume of shipment continues to be low, and the supply and demand pattern is not good. From the perspective of the trend of previous years, March and April are all bottom prices. Only affected by the early speculation this year, the price decline trend is more clear Obviously.

 
3. polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market price fell slightly in March, and there was a sign of stabilization at the end of the month. As of March 31, the average market price of polyester yarn was 14266 yuan / ton, down 3.39% compared with the beginning of the month, up 5.37% year on year. At present, the raw material inventory of yarn enterprises can be used to the first and middle of April, and the pre-sale orders before and after the Spring Festival are mainly completed before and after April, and the external quotation of the enterprises is not positive. Polyester yarn spot sales are weak, quotation and transaction price touch the top to fall, inventory accumulation, price weak adjustment.

3、 Post market forecast

Analysts at business agency said international oil prices fell in March, with PTA and glycol falling upstream. After the festival, the market is in a hurry for a large number of goods preparation due to the early demand for downstream construction, and the domestic short fiber production and marketing and price are rising. At present, the raw material inventory of the textile factory is high, the end market is worried about the trade situation, the order is not expected, the willingness to replenish is weak, and the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the digestion of inventory is the main one recently. However, with the digestion of raw materials, the downstream will meet the demand for replenishment; in addition, the profit of short fiber has been reduced to a lower level after the continuous decline, and there is little room for further decline. At present, enterprises with unknown industrial chain choose to buy as you like. The price of staple fibers may stop falling later than expected. In the future, the pressure of short-term polyester short-term fiber tired storage is still in, or is still slightly weak shock. However, in the medium term, with the coming of a new procurement cycle downstream, the processing differential compression has repair kinetic energy, polyester staple fiber or in April ushered in a shock rebound.

According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on March 31 was 39.00, down 1.37 points from yesterday, down 61.00% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 42.96% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Data monitoring shows that on March 1, 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber latex was 15375 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the price of rubber was 13150 yuan / ton, with a downward range of 14.475%.

Judging from the output of new rubber, a small amount of new rubber has been cut in China’s main natural rubber producing areas, and the serious insect pest in Yunnan has delayed the official cutting. However, the weather in Hainan this year is good, and some of them have been cut. Although the quantity is small, under the following good weather, a large number of new rubber made in China may be on the market in the middle and late April. Although the main production areas in Southeast Asia still stop cutting season, it is not far away from the opening of new rubber for more than a month. The market is increasingly worried about the new rubber listing, and the confidence is frustrated. The market of natural rubber is obviously weakening.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the purchasing situation of downstream factories has improved in the near future. From the perspective of tire enterprises, data statistics show that in the third week of March, as of March 25, the starting load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 78.03%, up 0.34% from the previous week, up 13.74% from the same period last year; the starting load of semi steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.01%, up 0.35% from the previous week, up 10.62% from the same period last year. From the perspective of automobile data, the average daily retail sales of passenger car market in the third week of March reached 46000 units, which was 5% higher than that in the third week of March 2019, and the performance was relatively good; the first three weeks of March this year were basically the same as that in 2019. However, compared with the first three weeks of January, the trend is relatively weak. The haze and sandstorm weather in North China in mid March is expected to stimulate sales growth again. However, recently, the global automobile industry chain has been affected by the “core shortage” all over the world. For example, as of the 31st, due to the lack of chips, Weilai automobile Hefei plant stopped its seven day automobile production; Tesla Model Y’s price has increased by 8000 yuan due to the “core shortage”; moreover, many automobile enterprises have also faced the shutdown since the second half of last year. Of course, some auto companies in China have started to develop chips on their own. BYD has started to develop chips since 2005. Geely, great wall, Wuling and other state-owned auto companies have also started to develop chips on their own. However, according to the prediction of market research institutions, the shortage of automotive chips will not be eased until the second half of 2021. During this period, the production of automotive enterprises will be affected, and the demand for raw rubber will also be affected.

From the aspect of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 175902 tons (+ 900) as of March 26, and the volume of futures warehouse receipts was 170920 tons (+ 300). As of March 21, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to drop slightly, but the inventory outside the zone picked up, mainly due to the slow down of delivery after the downstream took the goods the week before. Due to less overseas production and higher operation rate of domestic tire factories, it is expected that the later period of going to the warehouse can still be maintained.

From a policy perspective, in order to achieve the goal of stabilizing the rubber price, the Thai rubber authority has taken new measures, the most important of which is the fresh latex management project. Rubber Research Institute of Thailand cooperates with universities to develop the matching technology of latex preservation, which aims to improve the shelf life of fresh latex from 4-5 days to 1-2 months. In this way, rubber farmers do not have to rush to sell all the fresh latex at one time, so that there will not be too many goods pouring into the market, and the raw material supply of the processing plant in the low production period can be guaranteed. The Thai government will set up centralized storage tanks for latex and provide financial subsidies for rubber farmers. The goal is to withdraw more than 200000 tons of latex from the market. In addition, the Thai rubber bureau also launched a more mobile sales mechanism for cup rubber, and set a market reference standard for cigarette film, so as to help the smooth operation of the price system of various rubber types.

With regard to the future market, the business community believes that in the short term, the market has a strong worry about the new rubber market after cutting, which has a greater impact on the market. At the same time, the severe epidemic prevention situation in foreign countries, weak demand and the shutdown caused by the lack of “core” of automobile enterprises are also affected by multiple factors, such as the transmission factor of crude oil affected by more interference factors, the trend of shock, and the supporting role of natural rubber Insufficient, weak market. In the short term, we are still wary of the transmission effect of the substantial change of crude oil on natural rubber. From the middle and late of next month, we are wary of the significant impact of the new rubber on the market.

Magnesium market trend

On March 30, 2021, the price range of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) ex factory cash including tax in the main production areas of China is 15200-15500 yuan / ton, mainly through actual single negotiation.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory cash including tax is 15200-15300 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, it is 15300-15400 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 15400-15500 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 15200-15300 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

According to the data of the business association, the average market price of the main production areas on the 30th was 15366.67 yuan / ton, slightly lower than the previous quotation.

In the near future, the downstream demand is not strong, the amount of market inquiries is not much, the procurement is cautious, the demand for more rigid goods is mainly strong, the demand for warehouse is weakening, and the market trading is flat.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of March 30, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 18933.33 yuan / ton, down 2.41% compared with the previous trading day, down 5.80% compared with last Tuesday (March 23), and up 0.53% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. At present, it represents the medium level of factory inventory, the willingness of the middle and lower reaches to hold down the price, Duowei needs to follow up, and the focus of market negotiation is on the low end. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 18400-18600 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, March 30, Shandong propylene market prices rose slightly. According to the price chart of the business society, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It was generally stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price began to decline on the 4th, and generally rebounded on the 8th. The price rose 150-250 yuan / ton in two days, and then generally stabilized. The price rose about 50 yuan / ton again on the 12th, and continued to rise 50 yuan / ton on the 15th, starting from the 16th Since the 18th, the price has entered the downward channel again, with a daily drop of 100-150 yuan / ton. Since the 25th, the price has been generally stable, with some small changes in individual enterprises. Today, half of the prices have risen by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is still between 7850-8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7850-7900 yuan / ton.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of March 30, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 16066.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous trading day; downstream soft foam polyether, on March 30, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong fell, the raw material propylene oxide fell, the cost support weakened, the downstream inquiry atmosphere was ok, and the actual transaction was general. At present, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong Province declined The mainstream price of ordinary soft foam polyether market in the district is around 18100-18400 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that, at present, the downstream mentality is cautious, and there is no lack of manufacturers to let profits and drain stocks. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be weak, and more specific trends still need to pay attention to market information guidance.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average sulfur production price in East China on March 30 was 1456.67 yuan / ton, down 1.35% from yesterday’s price. At present, the price of solid sulfur in China is 1360-1490 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid sulfur is RMB 1300-1460 / ton.

As of March 25, the prices of sulfur in various regions of China are as follows:

Regional varieties March 30

Sulfur (particles) 1430-1490 yuan / ton in East China

Sulfur (particles) in North China is 1360-1430 yuan / ton

Sulfur (particles) 1450-1480 yuan / ton in Shandong Province

Domestic sulfur is stable, medium and downward, and refineries in each region adjust their prices according to their own shipment. Solid and liquid sulfur in North China and Shandong are all slightly reduced. At present, the inventory of refineries in each region is low, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, the support is weak, and the site is mainly rigid and watchful. The demand of the downstream phosphor industry is stable. In addition, the spring ploughing fertilizer is near, which has certain support for sulfur. Later, the demand of the downstream phosphor industry is stable, and the spring ploughing fertilizer is near, which will support sulfur to some extent The sulfur market will be arranged on a watch basis.

March 30 cotton yarn spot market stable. The price of 32S is about 26700 yuan / ton. After last week’s sharp fall, the price of upstream cotton rose slightly this week. On the 30th, the price of 3128b was 15246 yuan / ton, up 98 yuan / ton from last Friday. Internationally, US cotton fell to less than 80 cents last week, textile mill buying increased significantly, US Department of agriculture report is expected to reduce cotton planting area forecast, ice cotton futures rose slightly in the shock on Monday, providing support for prices. The price of imported yarn is high, and the price difference between inner yarn and outer yarn is large. The heat of the Xinjiang cotton incident has gradually cooled down, and the market has reestablished confidence in the domestic demand for yarn grey cloth and other products. Downstream, cloth factory just need replenishment, yarn factory new orders are limited.

At present, the cotton market has improved, and the cotton yarn market is supported by the cost. However, the orders of downstream weaving factories are coming to an end, and the market is not favorable in the short term. The industry is cautious, and it is expected that the cotton yarn market will be stable in the short term.

Commodity index: on March 30, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 92.90, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 14.78% compared with 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 10.18% compared with 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring found that in March 2021, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in Henan Province of China fluctuated and decreased. As shown in the figure, on March 1, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1791.67 yuan / ton, and on March 30, the mainstream price was 1718.57 yuan / ton, with a decrease rate of about 4%. The water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan Province have been in normal production after the Spring Festival holiday. However, due to the requirements of environmental protection policies, since the middle of this month, all the water treatment plants in Gongyi have stopped production for rectification. At present, the manufacturers have sufficient inventory. The biggest influencing factor of this month’s market: since the start of the year, the downstream demand has gradually recovered, the supply of goods is still sufficient, and the market is generally weak. However, some manufacturers have been unable to support due to strict environmental inspection. This situation will become more and more obvious with the strict environmental inspection.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the data from the business community, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China rose in March. On March 1, the mainstream market quotation was about 172 yuan / ton, and on March 30, it was about 197.5 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 15%. The upstream liquid chlorine market rose by 17% this month, with strong cost support. The maintenance of downstream enterprises of hydrochloric acid increased, and the demand decreased. The hydrochloric acid supply enterprises had more inventory, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, and the market supply exceeded the demand. The support of downstream silica is relatively low, and the monthly price fluctuation is no more than 1%. The support of ammonium chloride is strong, and the monthly rise is 14%. The downstream demand of “Jinshan” hydrochloric acid is gradually increasing, resulting in the fluctuation of hydrochloric acid up about 15% this month.

Secondly, the natural gas used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend. Around the 10th, Shandong’s civil gas market showed the most obvious increase. It began to fall continuously in the middle of the month and rebounded again at the end of the month. Affected by the changes in crude oil prices and downstream gas demand, the LPG market showed a significant rise and fall trend this month. According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on March 1 was 3616 yuan / ton, while on March 30, the price was about 3966 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 7%. In the near future, crude oil rebounded and the price was obviously driven. However, the following weather became warmer, the demand was weak, and the future market of liquefied gas was weak, so its impact on the cost of water treatment products was not so prominent.

Downstream demand: at present, many local enterprises are undergoing strict inspection of environmental protection, and the downstream demand is still gradually increasing; the manufacturers in Gongyi area of Henan Province should stop production according to the requirements of environmental protection, and the inventory is gradually consumed. In the spring of the golden three silver four, the requirements of various industries for environmental protection are improved, and the demand of water treatment industry will also increase.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business community, the two sessions in 2021 will be “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” It is written into the government work report for the first time, striving to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve “carbon neutralization” by 2060. Under this background, the chemical industry is bound to face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later stage, and the technical requirements for relevant enterprises will also be improved. Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical requirements will be improved The technical threshold is constantly rising; the production stop and rectification actions are frequent, the supply side can not avoid being affected, and the price is expected to rise. At the same time, in the global central bank water triggered inflation trend, raw material prices have been rising. To sum up, under the current situation of gradual recovery of demand and sufficient inventory, the price of polyaluminum chloride is mainly stable for the time being; with the extension of shutdown time and excessive inventory consumption, some manufacturers will continue to be short of supply, and it is expected that the downstream procurement cost will gradually increase in the second, third and fourth quarters. However, it can not be ruled out that some manufacturers can not continue to support due to the long shutdown time. It is suggested that manufacturers should improve their technical level as soon as possible and meet the requirements of environmental protection.

The price of methanol in the domestic market rose 26.26% to 233.32 yuan per week, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.73%. On the mainland side, the spring inspection is in its peak period, and the supply is shrinking obviously; on the port side, the inventory is still in the process of de stocking, but it is weaker than that of the mainland. With the return of imports, there is an expectation of accumulating the inventory.

As of March 26, methanol market price summary by Region:

Region, price

Qinghai Area/

RMB 2050 / T in Shanxi

Liaoning area 2200-2100 yuan / ton

Fujian area: 2470-2480 yuan / ton

Ex factory reference 2220-2250 yuan / ton in Lianghu area

Anhui area: 2260-2280 yuan / ton

Henan Province: reference 2120-2125 yuan / ton

On the downstream side, the demand for formaldehyde downstream terminals was good this week, Baoji Xinquan resumed operation, and other devices remained normal. On Tuesday, the manufacturers of methyl ether maintained 40-60% low load operation, the downstream demand shrank, and the market transaction atmosphere was not good, resulting in the long-term low start. This week, the domestic acetic acid plants were relatively stable, and the load of some plants increased slightly. Drive the start-up of acetic acid industry to increase.

In terms of external market, as of March 25, the closing price of CFR China methanol was 290.00-291.00 USD / T; CFR Southeast Asia methanol was 365.50-366.50 USD / T. US Gulf methanol closed at 119.50-120.50 cents per gallon, down 0.5 cents per gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol closed at 318.50-319.50 euros per ton, up 7 euros per ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asian CFR China $291.00-292.00/t $0 / T

50-366.50 US dollars / ton – 0 US dollars / ton

50-120.50 cents / gal-0.5 cents / gal

Europe ﹣ FOB Rotterdam ﹣ 318.50-319.50 euro / ton ﹣ 7 euro / ton

In the future, on the supply side, as the spring overhaul is approaching, the overhaul plans of methanol enterprises in the mainland are coming out one after another; some downstream units are recovering one after another, and the demand for methanol is rising slowly. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

This week (3.22-3.26) the market of NBR was weak and stable. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 26, the price of NBR was 22950 yuan / ton.

On the one hand, the domestic ex factory price of nitrile is raised again by 200-600 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of March 26, Lanzhou Petrochemical n41e reported 19600 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 21200 yuan / ton, 3308e reported 21600 yuan / ton; as of March 26, Sinopec Xibu nitrile 2665 reported 20200 yuan / ton, nitrile 3365 reported 20600 yuan / ton. Butyronitrile manufacturers are generally stable in operation and low in inventory. But on the other hand, the downstream demand is relatively weak, downstream rubber products enterprises purchase more with the use of pick, stock is not much. The upstream and downstream are slightly deadlocked, the market is dominated by merchants, and the market price is generally stable compared with last week. At present, the market offers are around 19800 yuan / ton for Lanhua n41, 22000 yuan / ton for South Korea lg6250, 19700-20000 yuan / ton for Russia 3365 and 24000-24500 yuan / ton for Nandi 1052.

The price of raw materials is stable and weak, and the cost side is empty. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of March 26, the price of butadiene was 8424 yuan / ton, down slightly by 0.20% compared with 8441 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business community believe that the overall pressure on the supply side of NBR is not big, but on the one hand, the international crude oil is weak and volatile this week, and there is downward risk on the cost side. In addition, the downstream procurement of NBR is not strong, and the support on the demand side is insufficient. It is expected that NBR will be weak and fall slightly in the future.