Monthly rise of 13.39%, a new 9-year high
According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 26 was 17280 yuan / ton, up 13.39% from 15240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (February 1).
Aluminum prices soared sharply in February. On the 25th, they broke through the historical high of nearly nine years set in early December. On the 26th, they moved down slightly, still being the second historical high of nearly nine years.
The main cause of the surge
Aluminum prices rose sharply in February mainly due to the following factors:
1. Macro policy
The news of the US $1.9 trillion epidemic relief plan combined with the effective promotion and use of vaccines, the strengthening of the expectation of economic recovery for the better of the epidemic situation, and the expectation of infrastructure stimulus policy, helped the outbreak of the metal market.
On the other hand, the outbreak of inflation trading exceeded expectations, and the commodity market ushered in a strong rise cycle.
2. The proportion of water supply is high, and the output and inventory of extruded aluminum ingots are low
In January 2021, the weighted proportion of molten aluminum in the aluminum industry was 64.61%, only 3.61% lower than that of the previous month; that is to say, the monthly increase of aluminum ingots was about 120000 tons, about 180000 tons lower than that of the previous year.
At present, there is a small accumulation of social inventory, and it is more than 1 million tons after the festival, which is in line with the market expectation; after the festival, the accumulated inventory of the factory is 114700-235500 tons, which is relatively small.
3. Production capacity control
According to market news, Inner Mongolia will implement capacity control on electrolytic aluminum with high energy consumption because it fails to achieve the goal of “double control” of energy consumption. It is rumored that electrolytic aluminum plants in eastern Inner Mongolia may reduce production because the overall energy consumption of the autonomous region is not up to standard in 2020. According to feedback from information sources, Jinlian, HuoMei and other electrolytic aluminum plants will initially plan to reduce production in the nature of maintenance, which may affect the annual production capacity in eastern Inner Mongolia in October About 10000 tons.
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