Demand is sluggish and LNG market prices are down

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency: on April 15, the average price of domestic LNG was 3390 yuan / ton, down 2.68% compared with the previous day, up 1.19% month on month, and up 4.2% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

On April 15, the domestic liquefied natural gas market was down by 2.68% in a single day. Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and other places fell collectively, with different declines. The overall downward trend of the market was obvious, with profits plummeting and hovering near the cost line. With the end of the heating period in northern China, the market officially entered the off-season, the support of the demand side gradually declined, the early maintenance and other favorable factors were exhausted, and the weak market became normal. At the same time, recently, the price reduction of imported gas was too large, which suppressed the domestic market. The sales pressure of domestic liquid plants was large, and near the May Day holiday, the traffic of dangerous chemical vehicles on expressways would be restricted, and most of the manufacturers Continue to reduce prices shipping, industry bearish mentality. At present, the market supply is sufficient, the demand continues to be weak, the contradiction between supply and demand may increase, the liquid price is mainly low consolidation, and there is still a downward expectation.

 

On April 15, the domestic liquefied natural gas market was down, with 3300-3500 yuan / T in Inner Mongolia, 3320-3600 yuan / T in Shaanxi, 3350-3600 yuan / T in Shanxi, 3390-3470 yuan / T in Ningxia, 3550-3660 yuan / T in Henan and 3120-3150 yuan / T in Hebei.

 

Date of quotation (yuan / ton)

Inner Mongolia LNG 3300-3500 April 15

April 15, 2015

Shanxi ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3350-3600 ﹣ April 15

Ningxia LNG 3390-3470 April 15

Hebei Liquefied Natural Gas Co., Ltd. 3120-3150 April 15

Henan Province ﹣ liquefied natural gas ﹣ 3550-3660 ﹣ April 15

Downstream products are mixed:

 

Recently, the domestic methanol spot market rose slowly. According to the monitoring of the business society, as of April 14, the average price of domestic methanol manufacturers in Shandong was 2370 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 3.27% and a year-on-year increase of 32.40%. Due to the low inventory and limited supply of goods, the prices of some production enterprises in Northwest China keep rising, while those in inland China keep rising.

 

Urea: on April 15, the urea market in Shandong Province was temporarily stable. The reference price of urea was 2113.33, which was 2.61% lower than that on April 1 (2170.00). At present, the purchase of agricultural demand is cautious, the industrial demand is used as it is purchased, and the urea supply is acceptable. It is expected that the domestic urea market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

 

Dichloromethane. On April 14, the reference price of dichloromethane was 3823.33, up 2.14% compared with that on April 1 (3743.33). At present, there is little pressure on the supply side, supported by cost and demand side. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will rise slightly in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

LNG analysts of business news agency believe that: at present, affected by the off-season consumption, the downstream demand has declined, the market transaction is general, coupled with the low price pressure system of import, the manufacturers have greater sales pressure, and the continuous price reduction and shipment operation has been hovering near the cost line, and near the May Day holiday, the manufacturers have the expectation of price reduction and inventory arrangement, and there are many bad factors, so it is expected that the LNG market will continue to expand in the short term Market may continue to fall, but the decline is limited.

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Upstream and downstream continue to play games, spandex prices temporarily stable, wait and see

According to the price monitoring of the business community, since April, the domestic spandex market has maintained a high and stable operation, and the factory quotation has not changed. The average price of 40d specification is 67600 yuan / ton, up 107.36% year on year. Spandex industry started around 90%, high level operation, market supply is basically stable, individual batch number is still tight. Downstream terminal market just need to buy, cautious view of the market.

 

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

 

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang Province: 83000-85000 73000-75000 63000-65000

Shandong: 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Fujian: 83000-86000-74000-76000-64000-68000

Jiangsu Province: 83000-85000 73000-75000 63000-66000

The overall focus of the raw material market PTMEG market is upward, 1800 molecular weight goods are supplied by mainstream factories, the offer is around 43000 yuan / ton, the actual order negotiation is about 42000-43000 yuan / ton, the industry starts 76%, and some devices are overhauled. The pure MDI industry started 80% of the time, insisted on sorting out, the market mainstream quotation fell steadily, the traders accompanied the shipment, the downstream small order procurement, the local market negotiation in 21500-22000 yuan / ton wire transfer barreled self pick-up.

 

Insufficient order follow-up of downstream textile enterprises is a prominent problem. The terminal market just needs to purchase is a little difficult. The round machine field starts 5.5-60%, and the warp knitting field starts 70%. Watch the market carefully.

 

Business analysts believe that the current spandex market trend changes little. Some spandex manufacturers have accumulated storage, but the overall level is still low, and some manufacturers are slightly tight, tight goods and high prices. The cost pressure of raw material market still exists, the demand follow-up is sluggish, the upstream and downstream continue to play games, in the short term, the price of spandex is temporarily stable and mainly wait-and-see.

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Calcium carbide prices in Northwest China fell 4.76% (4.5-4.9) this week

1、 Price trend

 

The price of calcium carbide in the northwest fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 4200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 200 yuan / ton, or 4.76%, up 58.10% over the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell this week, with the commodity index of 104.80 on April 9.

 

2、 Trend analysis

 

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 3900 yuan / ton, down 450 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 4000 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 4100 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week .

 

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was low and consolidated this week. The quotation of small material is 670 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of medium material is 710 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of large material is 720 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and the cost support is general, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

 

Downstream market, PVC factory prices rose slightly this week. PVC quotation increased by 1.49% from 8750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8880.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 57.17%. This week, PVC prices rose slightly, the market is good, downstream calcium carbide purchasing enthusiasm increased, overall, this week’s PVC market has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In the middle of April, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The price of raw material orchid charcoal was low and the cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. Although the downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently, large foreign PVC factories have resumed work, and domestic PVC construction has declined. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may drop slightly in mid April.

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Price of pure benzene rose first and then fell with styrene in the week (April 5, 2021-april 11, 2021)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s block list, pure benzene rose continuously in the first half of this week, and the price fell slightly in the later period. On April 4, the price of pure benzene was 6450-6650 yuan / ton (average price was 6520 yuan / ton), on Sunday (April 11), the price of pure benzene was 6373-6850 yuan / ton (average price was 6664 yuan / ton), the average price increased 144 yuan / ton or 2.21% compared with last week, and 109.56% compared with the same period last year.

 

povidone Iodine

2、 Analysis and comment

 

This week, pure benzene rose first and then fell with the trend of styrene, and the port inventory of both decreased. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port continued to decline, with only a few new arrivals. The port is still in the channel to the warehouse, and the domestic supply is tight. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised by 200 yuan / ton to 6700 yuan / ton, and the bottom support was stronger.

 

In terms of external market, this week’s external market rose first and then fell. On Friday (April 9), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 861.67 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton or 0.58% compared with April 2, and the import reference price in East China was 875 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton or 1.16% compared with April 2.

 

Crude oil, this week’s crude oil long short game, price shocks. Good news: US commercial crude oil inventory fell, China and US economic data were strong; bad news: OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places was severe. On April 1, Brent rose 0.08 USD / barrel, or 0.13%; WTI fell 2.13 USD / barrel, or 3.46%.

 

Downstream: styrene: this week, the price of styrene rose first and then fell, which was lower than that of last week. On April 11, the price of sample enterprises was 8833.33 yuan / ton, which was 2.03% lower than that of last week; the price was 70.42% higher than that of the same period last year. Crude oil fluctuated strongly, pure benzene and ethylene prices rose, and cost support was good; port inventory was still declining, and new production capacity was offset by device maintenance; domestic supply increment was limited, and spot was tight, which supported the high price of styrene. However, the downstream has a resistance to high price styrene. Although the operating rate rises collectively, the terminal is still in a wait-and-see state, and the purchase is just needed, and the transaction is sluggish.

 

Aniline: the price of aniline fell this week. The price of downstream polymerization MDI and rubber additives fell, the profit margin narrowed, the resistance to high price aniline was strong, and the demand remained rigid. Jinling Dongying and Huatai aniline plants restart, market supply increases. Under the pressure of long and short market, aniline is in a weak position. On April 11, the price of aniline was 11000-12900 yuan / ton in Shandong and 11700 yuan / ton in Nanjing, down 6.15% from last week and 142.38% from the same period last year.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, although OPEC + decided to increase production, the market is still optimistic about the future demand prospect of oil market, and crude oil inventory may gradually enter the process of depolarization in the second quarter. Biden’s Government previously launched a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, and is currently brewing $2.3 trillion in infrastructure stimulus measures. With the acceleration of vaccination in Europe, the economy will gradually enter the recovery track.

 

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: in terms of cost, crude oil is expected to pick up in the future. On the supply side, in April, there were more maintenance of domestic styrene plants, and the new production capacity will be offset by the reduced production capacity. Domestic supply may increase limited, and the pressure is not big. In addition, the import volume of terminals will maintain the low level of the contract. On the demand side, although the overall operating rate of the downstream has picked up, the terminal is still in a wait-and-see state, and the demand for styrene remains rigid, and the demand side has not recovered. It is expected that styrene will still run with strong vibration in the short term.

 

In the later stage, the arrival quantity of pure benzene is still limited, but the speed of port delivery is expected to slow down. Sinopec’s inventory is tight and its price is expected to be firm. The price trend of pure benzene is still greatly affected by crude oil and styrene. With the entry of new styrene plants, the demand for pure benzene has a certain support. On the whole, the price of pure benzene will be able to move up next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

Benzalkonium chloride

Increased supply, weak downstream follow-up, aniline prices fall (April 5-11, 2021)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business community’s block list, aniline prices fell this week. On April 4, the price of aniline was 13000-13200 yuan / ton in Shandong and 13000-13500 yuan / ton in Nanjing. On April 11, the price of aniline was 11000-12900 yuan / ton in Shandong and 11700 yuan / ton in Nanjing. The average price was 6.15% lower than last week, 54.43% higher than the beginning of the year and 142.38% higher than the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

In terms of cost, this week, pure benzene rose first and then fell with the trend of styrene, and both port inventories declined. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port continued to decline, with only a few new arrivals. The port is still in the channel to the warehouse, and the domestic supply is tight. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised by 200 yuan / ton to 6700 yuan / ton, and the bottom support was stronger. On Sunday (April 11), the price of pure benzene was 6373-6850 yuan / ton (the average price was 6664 yuan / ton), 144 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 2.21%; 109.56% higher than the same period last year.

 

The price of nitric acid rose sharply this week. On Friday (April 9), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2233.33 yuan / ton, up 8.94% over last week, 8.94% over the beginning of this month, and 44.09% over the same period last year.

 

Aniline prices fell this week. In the early stage, aniline was driven by downstream procurement, resulting in the rapid decline of enterprise inventory, tight spot supply in the market, soaring prices, and the rapid widening of the price difference between aniline and pure benzene. At present, the price of aniline is mainly affected by the supply side and demand side. The market of downstream polymerization MDI and rubber additives is weakening, the profit space is shrinking, the resistance to high price aniline is strong, and the demand maintains rigid demand. In addition, Jinling Dongying and Huatai aniline plants were restarted last week, and the starting load of aniline increased, and the market supply was sufficient. Under the pressure of long and short flight, aniline will go down.

 

3、 Future expectation

 

In terms of cost, the amount of pure benzene arriving at the port in the later period is still limited, but the speed of port delivery is expected to slow down. Sinopec’s inventory is tight and its price is expected to be firm. The price trend of pure benzene is still greatly affected by crude oil and styrene. With the entry of new styrene plants, the demand for pure benzene has a certain support. On the whole, the price of pure benzene will be able to move up next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

 

The price difference between aniline and pure benzene is wide, the profit margin is still good, and the cost support is limited. In the near future, there is no planned overhaul of the plant, and the supply is expected to be stable. Overall, the short-term trend of aniline is mainly affected by downstream demand, and there is still room for decline. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.

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Ethylene oxide briefing this week (April 1 – April 9)

Ethylene oxide remained stable this week. The ex factory price of East China, central China and South China is 8400 yuan / ton, and that of Northeast China and North China is 8600 yuan / ton. Shanghai Petrochemical is expected to be overhauled next week, while satellite Petrochemical is expected to start at the end of the month, and the specific time has not been determined yet.

 

The price of crude oil was strong and fluctuated at a high level, which led to the high price of ethylene in the outer market. Based on the current ethylene price in Northeast Asia, the epoxy profit fluctuates around 600 yuan. The downstream side is light as a whole, and the terminal construction is insufficient. The downstream inventory of polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer is high, and the monomer price has increased slightly within the week. The manufacturers have strong willingness to support the price. Although the actual transaction price is close to the cost line, the terminal demand is low, and the monomer price fluctuation space is limited due to the just need to purchase. The market price of ethanolamine dropped within the week, with monoethanolamine down 6.96%, diethanolamine down 5.71% and triethanolamine down 9.09%.

 

At present, the market is stable.

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Demand turns light, hydrogen peroxide price continues to decline

According to the monitoring data of the business community, in the first half of March, the hydrogen peroxide market bottomed out and rebounded, rising sharply. From the end of last ten days, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to plunge, and the price was weak. As of April 8, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market fell to 1000 yuan / ton, 6.76% lower than that of March 22.

 

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2020 to April 8, 2021, it can be seen that in the first quarter of 2020, hydrogen peroxide dropped for two consecutive months, and it also fell in April, mainly due to export restrictions. June ushered in a sharp rise, or more than 32%. In the first quarter of 2021, hydrogen peroxide dropped for two consecutive months, and rebounded in March, with an increase of nearly 10%. Since April, the market price of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline. As of April 8, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide has dropped to 1000 yuan.

 

Demand turns light, hydrogen peroxide returns to decline

 

Since the second week of March, due to the soaring market of terminal paper and caprolactam, the rigid demand for purchasing increased. In addition, in the week of March 11, hydrogen peroxide manufacturer Anhui Quansheng stopped for maintenance, and the supply decreased. On the 12th, the factory collectively raised the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide, which ushered in the rising trend of hydrogen peroxide. On the 15th, the market of hydrogen peroxide rose sharply, with the price breaking through the 1000 yuan mark, with a daily increase of more than 10%. Since the end of last ten days, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline, falling to April 8, with a decline of nearly 7%.

 

On April 8, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers quoted as follows:

 

Luxi Chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 900 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton compared with early April; Hebei Zhengyuan fertilizer hydrogen peroxide quoted 900 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton; Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1200 yuan / ton, stable.

 

End products: lactam paper industry weakens, hydrogen peroxide continues to fall

 

Paper: in late March, the price of corrugated paper continued to decline, the market transaction atmosphere was low, some large-scale paper enterprises launched preferential policies to ship, and small and medium-sized paper enterprises flexibly reduced the paper price according to the order situation. However, the downstream packaging plants are in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the market is still dominated by rigid demand. Near the end of the month, the price of corrugated paper has slightly stabilized, but the supply and demand side of paper enterprises has not changed significantly, and the downward space of paper price pressure has increased. In addition, the price of waste paper fell sharply again, and the cost support was weak. The overall decline was more than 4%. On April 8, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper was 142.63, which was the same as yesterday. It was 42.02% lower than the highest point 246.00 in the cycle (October 21, 2019), and 32.63% higher than the lowest point 107.54 on January 29, 2019. (Note: period refers to the period from January 1, 2017 to now)

 

Caprolactam: since mid March, the supply of caprolactam was tight, the profit was exhausted, and the downstream products were all weak. Caprolactam entered the downward channel, and the price was weak and fell until April 8, with an overall decline of more than 4%. On April 8, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 112.21, down 0.29 points from yesterday, down 48.79% from 219.12 points (2020-10-27), the highest point in the cycle, and up 24.89% from 89.85 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: period refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to now)

 

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, thinks: the market of terminal paper industry and caprolactam is weak, the demand is weak, the hydrogen peroxide supply is loose, and the future price rise is still weak.

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PTA unit maintenance increases, short-term price fluctuat to be strong

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic PTA spot market price fluctuated and rebounded. As of April 7, the average price of the spot market was 4513 yuan / ton, up 1.28% over the previous trading day and 33.83% over the same period last year. PTA main futures (2109) closed higher, to close at 4662, 104 higher than the previous trading day, or 2.28%.

 

Overhaul scale of overhaul enterprises (10000 tons / year)

Overhaul on April 17, 2020

Pengwei Petrochemical Company will stop at night on March 9, 2020, and the restart time will be determined

Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop for maintenance from February 20 to May 19, 2021

Maintenance of Huabin Petrochemical Company from March 6 to April 10, 2021

Sinopec will stop in the evening of March 7, 2021, and the restart time is to be determined

Ineos (Zhuhai) 125 overhaul on March 17, 2021, restart time to be determined

Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. will maintain for 20 days on April 1, 2021

Jiaxing Petrochemical Company will be overhauled for 15-20 days on April 1, 2021

Fujian Baihong power plant will start maintenance for about 7 days at night on April 2, 2021

Dushan Energy Co., Ltd. plans to overhaul from April 13 to 27, 2021

Livan plans to overhaul in May 2021

Ningbo Yisheng plans to overhaul in the second quarter of 2021

Hengli Petrochemical 1 × 220 scheduled maintenance time to be determined

Hengli Petrochemical 5 × 250 scheduled maintenance time to be determined

PTA processing is at a relatively low level, and the maintenance of the plant is increasing. At present, the start-up of PTA plant is below 80%, and the supply side will continue to shrink in April. In terms of demand, the recent polyester market trading performance is flat, but the polyester factory and terminal loom start-up remain high, polyester start-up load is more than 91%, so the demand for raw materials is good. PTA social inventory fell for the fifth consecutive week, and the inventory fell to below 4 million tons for the first time since February. As of April 2, PTA’s social inventory was 3.9762 million tons, a decrease of 64100 tons compared with March 26, but an increase of 746200 tons compared with the same period in 2020.

 

Analysts of business news agency believe that the improvement of supply and demand of PTA in the short term will support the market, but the international oil price is facing greater pressure in the near future, and the terminal is cautious in purchasing polyester, which will restrain the PTA price. It is expected that the short-term price will run with strong volatility.

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After Qingming Festival, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market price rises in an all-round way

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of April 6, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 470 yuan / ton, which increased by 24 yuan / ton or 5.22% compared with April 1 (446 yuan / ton) and 47 yuan / ton or 11.02% compared with March 1 (423 yuan / ton)

 

After the Qingming Festival, the domestic phosphorus ore market will rise in an all-round way

 

After Qingming Festival, on April 6, a number of domestic phosphate rock producing areas including Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei and other regions have greatly increased the ex factory price of phosphate rock. The increase of phosphate rock in Guizhou is around 10-30 yuan / ton. After adjustment, 30% grade phosphate rock in Guizhou is 380-410 yuan / ton for market price reference, 28% grade phosphate rock is 360-390 yuan / ton for market price reference, and 22% grade phosphate rock is 380-410 yuan / ton for market price reference The market reference price of phosphate rock is 190-210 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of phosphate rock in Hebei is increased by 20-30 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Hebei is adjusted by 570-600 yuan / ton; the increase range of phosphate rock in Guangxi is 10-30 yuan / ton, and the market price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Guangxi is adjusted by 380-400 yuan / ton, and 28% grade phosphate rock is adjusted by 350-380 yuan / ton Near.

 

Since the beginning of spring, China’s agriculture and forestry has entered the peak season. The market of the downstream products of phosphate rock, monoammonium phosphate, has been rising since the beginning of March. The increase of terminal downstream demand also gives the domestic phosphate rock market upward support power. The domestic phosphate rock market has been operating at a high level since the price increase in March. After the Qingming Festival, the domestic phosphate rock market has again increased the price of phosphate rock, At present, according to the data monitoring of the business society, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in the domestic market is 470 yuan / ton, which is 47 yuan / ton higher than the price on March 1, with a total increase of over 11% since the spring.

 

Since the end of February, the domestic market of diamine phosphate has risen sharply. At the end of March, the market price of diamine phosphate increased, and then maintained a high and stable operation after the Qingming Festival in April. At present, there is still a short-term supply gap, and the domestic market is still in a high position. As of April 6, 64% of diammonium enterprises in Hubei Province stopped reporting, while 64% of diammonium enterprises in Gansu Province offered 3150 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 3300-3430 yuan / ton. In Guizhou, 64% diammonium is priced at 3250-3300 yuan / ton, while in Heilongjiang, the first arrival price of 64% diammonium is about 3300 yuan / ton.

 

The downstream export is still good in the short term, supporting the recent strong operation of phosphorus ore

 

In April, although the rising trend of the downstream terminal slowed down, and in recent days, it mainly maintained stable operation, but the export benefits can still be supported in the short term. Therefore, the downstream terminal market mostly maintained a high level in the short term. Therefore, the phosphorus ore market, supported by the downstream, has also been mainly in a strong operation in recent days.

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Unit is about to restart, aniline price falls (March 29 April 4, 2021)

1、 Price trend

 

Aniline ended up and down this week, according to data on the business agency’s bulk list. On March 28, the price of Shandong Province was 13900-14000 yuan / ton, Nanjing aniline price was 14000 yuan / ton, on April 4, Shandong price was 13000-13200 yuan / ton, Nanjing aniline price was 13000-13500 yuan / ton, and the average price fell 7.14% from last week, up 64.56% compared with the beginning of the year, up 143.75% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

Cost, this week, pure benzene continued to follow the trend of styrene, prices rose. In the week, Petronas and ENEOS plant in Japan stopped, and the prices of pure benzene in Asia rose, supporting the domestic pure benzene market. The inventory of East China port continued to decline this week and is still in the warehouse access. This week, the price of Sinopec’s Benzene hanging increased by 150 yuan / T to 6500 yuan / ton, while the price of some refineries in North China was increased by 300 yuan / T to 6450 yuan / ton. On Sunday (April 4), the price of pure benzene was 6450-6650 yuan / ton (average price: 6520 yuan / ton), with the average price up 240 yuan / ton, or 3.82%, compared with the previous week, and 169.42% higher than the same period last year.

 

The price of nitric acid stabilized in the week, with the production price of nitric acid in East China on Friday (April 2) at 2050 yuan / ton, which was flat from the beginning of the month, up 28.12% from the same period last year. The goods in the nitric acid market are still acceptable, and some manufacturers have no inventory pressure.

 

The high price of aniline and the lower price of downstream polymerization MDI lead to the reduction of downstream profit space, strong resistance to high price aniline and low enthusiasm of receiving. In addition, the 200000 ton / a aniline plant in Jinling East camp was restarted on April 3, and Huatai 100000 t / a aniline plant was about to be restarted. The supply is expected to increase, the industry is short of mentality towards the future market, and the price of aniline is weak.

 

3、 Post market expectations

 

In terms of cost, the number of benzene arriving at the port is still limited in the later period, the port is still in the way of inventory removal, the inventory of enterprises is not high, and the shipping pressure is not available. It is expected that the short-term pure benzene will still follow the fluctuation of crude oil and styrene. With the new styrene plant entering the site, the demand for pure benzene has certain support. Continue to pay attention to downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant dynamics, crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.

 

Market supply is expected to increase and aniline is expected to fall. Pay attention to the changes of market supply after the restart of Jinling Dongying and the restart plan of Dongying Huatai. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material surface, downstream demand follow-up and the influence of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.

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