During the week, the supply in the East China region decreased, while the maintenance facilities in the north gradually resumed. At the same time, some manufacturers increased their external sales, resulting in overall supply saturation. In addition, the demand for spot goods continued to be insufficient, leading to a decline in supplier offers. As of September 19th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8300-8400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 8250-8350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Supply increase
East China region, supply reduction; In the northern market, supply has increased. Overall, the utilization rate of production capacity has increased, the output has increased, and the overall supply is relatively abundant.
According to statistics, as of September 18th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 72.68%, an increase of 0.78% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output was about 82800 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is around 41000 tons, unchanged from last week.
Limited incremental demand:
This week, the demand for acrylonitrile in major downstream industries has shown an increase, with ABS capacity utilization rate of 69.8%, a decrease of -0.2% compared to last week. However, Yulong has expanded its production capacity by 300000 tons and put a new plant into operation, with a total ABS production capacity base of 10.49 million tons per year; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 66.12%, and the load capacity of Jilin Petrochemical’s acrylic fiber plant has increased from 30% to around 60%; Acrylamide production capacity utilization rate: 56.46%,+0.88% compared to last week.
Continued cost support:
The cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production has not changed much during the cycle. As of September 18th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 6700 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated and fell, and the production loss situation worsened again this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 9000 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -0.27%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -589 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of -115 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the supply in the north will increase, while the demand increment is limited, especially with spot buying maintaining a rigid demand state. The market will fall temporarily, but considering cost pressure and future stocking expectations, the market’s downward space in the short term is still limited.
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