In recent times, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has suddenly escalated, and shipping safety risks in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified. International crude oil prices have surged significantly, leading to the overall strengthening of energy driven sectors. As an important synthetic rubber variety downstream of crude oil, butadiene rubber (BR) has seen a significant increase driven by cost and sentiment.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 3, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13670 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.07% from 13010 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainly affected by increased inventory, decreased raw material prices, and insufficient downstream production after the holiday.
The surge in crude oil prices has opened up space for cost increases
The Middle East conflict directly impacts the global energy supply chain, with Brent crude oil and domestic crude oil futures soaring significantly. The price of raw materials for butadiene rubber has risen, providing solid bottom support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 3rd, the price of butadiene was 10293 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00% from 9993 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
On the 3rd, the futures of Shunding rubber significantly jumped short and opened high, and the spot market followed suit positively. Mainstream suppliers such as PetroChina and Sinopec raised their ex factory prices, while spot prices in East China, North China, and Shandong collectively rose, and the weekly increase significantly expanded.
High inventory pressure, slow demand repair
After the holiday, the overall operation of domestic butadiene rubber plants will remain at 80% load, and the market supply is abundant. However, some plants are scheduled for maintenance in March, and there is a marginal contraction expectation on the supply side. But after the holiday, social inventory continued to accumulate to a high level, becoming the main suppressing factor for price increases and limiting the room for growth. Downstream tire companies are gradually resuming work and production, but the recovery is slow. In the early stage, overall procurement was mainly based on demand, and there is currently a weak willingness to chase after high prices. The demand side has not yet formed a strong driving force.
Overall, the recent rise in butadiene rubber prices is a result of both cost and emotional benefits brought about by the Middle East conflict, rather than a fundamental reversal in supply and demand patterns. Before the conflict clearly eases, crude oil is prone to rise but difficult to fall, and the pattern of strong fluctuations in butadiene rubber continues. However, high inventory and weak reality will lead to a fluctuating upward rhythm and significantly increased volatility.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |